#GE16 LIVE BLOG – Rolling comment during the day (and some) of the night…

  • the rich get richer

    If FF and FG are manoeuvred into coalition then this will be a huge change in Irish politics !

    Interesting times ahead !

  • the rich get richer

    Total vote for ff/fg combined will be less than 50% (for the first time)and maybe close to 45%. This is big news.

    The Irish electorate are finally beginning to see them for what they are.

  • David McCay

    Sinn Fein slump, with rise in fpv of only 50-60% ! Adams under pressure in Louth with Sinn Fein looking to take 2 seats in that constituency for the first time ! Lol !

    Strong, sustainable political parties are grown from the ground up – strong candidates, string policy, strong structures on the ground. Very solid performance from Sinn Fein – with the preferences of under 35 looking even stronger, and a period as a large opposition party upcoming, the future is bright !

  • mickfealty

    It’s very early there yet. RTE think Munster is still likely to pip Ged Nash, but in truth they don’t know…

  • Greenflag 2

    Indeed – looks like its going to be the only way for the country to have a stable government for the next 5 years . But will /can they put country before party ?
    Could be easier if both parties have approx similar number of seats . But then FG might not find riding on the back of the tiger a easy ride as they say . One slip and goodnight Vienna as someone once said 😉

    As to the Irish electorate ? At least 35% of them haven’t even bothered to vote which in itself is an indication that many people view their politicians as less important to their lives than politicians might want to believe . Perhaps more and more Irish people and Britons and Americans among others are coming around to the view that our established politicians are naked emperors when all is said and done .

    The people have spoken the eh ungrateful b******ds as an FG politician was heard to comment 😉

  • David McCay

    Agreed – will be close. Fascinating election overall in my opinion, and the net result will be even more fascinating. Got to be odds-on for a re-run before the year is out – how it’ll all play out in that scenario is anyone’s guess !

  • Superfluous

    Paddy Power now 1/4 for FF/FG a coalition by end of the year. I can’t understand what’s in it for them, other than short term careerism.

  • Korhomme

    What now are the chances of a second election this year?

    How would it add ‘stability’? What would significantly change?

  • kensei

    I believe if you Google the threads on the 2011 election, I stated that the death of FF being cited then was complete nonsense. People have depressingly short memories and even this is a quicker bounce back than I thought.

    SF rock bottom of their range, which is precisely where they always are in the South. I think it’ll stay thatwayuntil Adams retires and it’s a little harder to shout IRA and innumerate at there. They’ve effectively displaced Labour though, and look like they’ll stick around. If it does wind up as FF-FG they are the opposition which is a gift to them, especially if things go rocky. Remain to be seen if they can exploit it.

    The amount of independents seems to be an example of something that makes sense on a small scale but absolutely none looking Nationally. People are weird.

  • the rich get richer

    With so many voting out a government its just not good enough from Sinn Fein.

    Gerry has to remove himself from the leadership of Sinn Fein. When you consider some of his other achievements this should not be too difficult for him.

  • mickfealty

    Paddy Power had Paul Donnelly priced at 1/100 to take a seat in Dublin West.

  • Superfluous

    Yeah they are wrong all the time – the art is in guessing which times they are wrong!

  • Tadhg Curran

    Absolutely. I have been looking over the results and vote counts, and Sinn Féin has done very well.

    In 1992 Sinn Féin had no Dáil seats, in 1997 they got one seat. In 2007 they had 4 seats, and last election they got 14 seats. In my mind, if they get 15 seats this election they’re doing well. And when the counting starts up again, it looks like they will be doing better than that.

    As you said – a very solid performance, with strength in under 35’s. It’s laughable how this strong performance and great success for Sinn Féin is being spun as “a remarkably bitter pill to swallow” for them.

    Also as you said – sustainable, grown from the ground up, the upcoming period. Sinn Féin is in this for the long haul and this is the way to do it, slowly build up and up. Get one SF’er into a constituency, let people have a look at them, then get working on getting a second one in there. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Until we have a 32 county republic with the right of the people of Ireland to the ownership of Ireland. Tiocfaidh ár lá.

  • Granni Trixie

    As a SF supporter do you see GA leaving the stage anytime soon? He got in in Louth but other SF supporters here have told us GA was taking the media hits
    to leave the rest of SF to work on the ground. Strange strategy in view of his general toxicity which is likely a barrier to a real breakthrough for SF. They’ll never up their game with him around to hold them back.

  • Gopher

    Have to say I’m underwhelmed, it seems Gerry has managed to move his duck 1 mm closer to Dublin. 13.8 % in pockets across the Republic in a protest election is hardly storming the Winter Palace and I notice 1916 has zero electoral resonance. Complete and abject failure to get off the buffers in the North was excused by the diversion of resources to the South. What is the excuse this morning? Brits? Unionists? Cahill? Securocrats? anti Republicans? Capitalists? Independent? Which excuse is getting wheeled out? I have to say in the grand scheme of things and in the electoral scales Fermanagh and South Tyrone’s loss wont be compensated by 20-21 TD’s the majority of whom’s longevity looks tenuous. No triumphal run in to the assembly elections now. I’m sure the spin on this great and signal victory will be hilairious

  • Greenflag 2

    ‘in view of his general toxicity ‘

    ??? So SF increase their first preference vote by 50% and this is ‘toxic’ ? The Republic is not NI , Voters have choices other than unionism . SF did very well , The big surprise for me is the ‘recovery ‘ of FF, In 2011 I believed they were finished as a party , Somehow or other they have returned from the dead .

    Irish voters can be merciless as we saw in the 2011 GE and again here with FG/Lab but they also have the capacity to forgive and if not entirely forget at least choose to non remember in the poling booth .

    James Reilly and Alan Shatter of FG being the 2 major exceptions in that voters chose to remember their recent “errors ‘ and chose not to forget .

  • Zig70

    For SF the lesson isn’t about Adams, it’s the economy. You alienate a large proportion of the electorate when you look like a party that will raise taxes.

  • Greenflag 2

    Power did’nt take into account the Joan Burton factor in that she probably benefitted from a ‘sympathy ‘ vote in that much of the media in the run up was salivating at the prospect of a decapitation of the Labour Party leader. In addition the SF candidate had to contend with the popular Ruth Coppinger of People before Profit . Burton also did better on preferences from earlier elimations getting 1,500 approx to Donnelly’s 1,000 to hold her seat . Her party now has less seats than People Before Profit . Whither Labour ?

  • Tadhg Curran

    > general toxicity which is likely a barrier to a real breakthrough for has SF

    Sinn Féin went from 9.9% of the vote and 14 seats in 2011, to 13.8% of the vote and so far 22 seats, and probably 23 (maybe even 24) this election. It’s an enormous stride in five years, especially for a party that the establishment has been dumping on, especially lately. The problem for the establishment is they have been dumping on the working people of Ireland too, so it makes them feel some kinship with the Fenians.

    I don’t see toxicity, barriers to breakthroughs, remarkably bitter pills to swallow and all the other things put about by some here, and in the press. If you went by comments here and in the press, you’d barely know that Fine Gael got slaughtered and that Sinn Féin has more than 50% more MP’s than we did 5 years ago.

    Personally, I hope Adams stays in as long as possible. With his supposed “toxicity” as leader, Sinn Féin has more than 50% more seats than we did 5 years ago. There’s a lot of good qualities to him – he is a 32 county figure, with a foot on both sides of the border. Through all he and other SF leaders have suffered and gone through over the decades he is tried by fire, with strong bonds to other SF leaders. People don’t see him as a politician looking to make some quick money. I watched an interview with Martin McGuinness on Tubridy a few years ago, and he said he just went on vacation to Spain or somewhere like that with his wife, and he said something like it was the first time he ever vacationed in another country with his wife. The average Irish worker don’t perceive SF as the D4 Fine Gael’ers who want to close down their local hospital or bank branch.

    If Adams was really doing a bad job, people against SF wouldn’t be saying he should go – they’d be happy he was there and wouldn’t say anything about it. I hope he stays in for some more years. He’s 67 now, I don’t see any reason he should leave before he turns 70. I’m sure he can handle it a few years after that as well. His age doesn’t seem to be keeping young people away from Sinn Féin, they’re flocking to Sinn Féin actually.

  • Granni Trixie

    Your answer illustrates the problem of a huge gap in your understanding of why people are wary of anything which comes from the mouth of Adams. Try listening to people such as Austin Stack or Ann Travers people obviously living in the present with a legacy of killing. None so blind.