Slugger’s #GE2015 LiveBlog (from 11pm)

Live Blog #GE15 Slugger LIVE blog
 

This should go live about 11 tonight… I’ve set it up to feed from our Slugger team from their Twitter feeds and few others. I’ll be in Dublin providing Studio comment with Allison Morris of the Irish News and Gary Murphy of DCU.

Here’s the expected order (expect things to be later than this):

10985480_10152435279123039_7448375430735567141_n

I’ll be on air with RTE One from about 11.15 and trying to use my iPad in the studio to keep things moving along nicely here.

A few observations. Most of the SDLP’s election budget appears to have been spent on South Belfast. There’s virtually no other posters from the top of the Ormeau Road to the roundabout in Carryduff, whilst North Belfast there’s huge gaps even in core SDLP areas.

I did try to catch up with the DUP challenger in South Belfast Jonny Bell to see how things were going from his point of view. I had more success in catching up with Alliance Party David Ford.

Without taking a view on how people say their campaign is going it strikes me that Alliance (and the DUP actually) are the only big players in this election who have spent some time prepping a narrative to fight this election. In the case of Alliance they have gone on the progressive politics line, using it to divide the electorate precisely.

They say the flag stuff is fading as time passes, and are confident they are getting decent conversion rates from the 2010 Ringland UUP voters who simply walked off the pitch in 2011. Of course we’ll see later tonight. Boxes will be gone through in microscopic detail, win or lose for the new dynamics for next year.

Out in the country, in Strangford and South Down, the density of posters thins and tend to be predominated by incumbent posters. In other news, keep an out of the TUV runner in North Antrim. There seems to be some TUV enthusiasm for a clear face off between old Paisleyites and new DUP Paisley voters (see what I did there?).

  • tanyaj

    Oh, we’ve been moved back another fifteen minutes, have we? Someone’s told someone about Fermanagh time (though the count’s in Omagh).

  • Sergiogiorgio

    South Belfast, just voted conservative, sure why not. First time in 40 years I’ve voted. Enjoy the show ye all.

  • Sergiogiorgio

    Exit polls showing 316 Tory / 239 Labour!!

  • jimjam

    BBC NI showing a local programme instead of Dimbleby!! Incredible.

  • Cue Bono

    Miliband is toast. Thank God for that.

  • Cue Bono

    Where have all the Sinners gone?

  • Robin Keogh

    Dont worry i am here 😉

  • Cue Bono

    Any thoughts? The Fisherman confidently predicted that unionists would have no influence on the future government. Do you concur?

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    It now looks like the DUP USP was a damp squib. Instant non delivery there as always.

  • Cue Bono

    Sorry what?

  • Robin Keogh

    Exit polls are a real shocker, if the tories get 316 seats as predicted and Lib Dems get ten, well thats your government for the next five years. Its early yet so lets wait and see. What do u think?

  • Zeno

    I’m not so sure the Lib Dems will go into coalition with the Conservatives again. It has almost wiped them out.

  • notimetoshine

    If the exit poll is about right and lib dem Tory coalition brings a majority it is a very tight majority, and no doubt there will be votes (most likely on welfare and budget cuts) with lib dem objections and indeed on other issues with Tory back bench objections (I’m thinking Europe).

    If this is the case and such a small margin dependent on another party, I think we are going to see a very unstable government which will require significant DUP support at least sometimes. More than enough to squeeze Cameron anyway.

  • Robin Keogh

    You could be right there Zeno, its early yet

  • Robin Keogh

    Depending on how it shakes out, the Tories might decide to go it alone as a minority government with no help

  • Robin Keogh

    SNP !!!! Flippin heck !! 58 seats maybe, really?

  • notimetoshine

    Good point but then they will depend on the DUP even more. I wonder what sort of costing the DUP are going to insist on for their informal voting support if they end up being used by the Tories.

  • Robin Keogh

    Thrilled that McRea is gone

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    That’s at least something. Sorry to gloat but thrilled that Foyle has been retained by Mark Durkan.

  • Robin Keogh

    Derry will always be SDLP and Durkan is such a nice guy

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    An sure he is. Ian Og was serenaded with “abide with me” but he’s just said he’s off to party now. Stay off the devil’s vomit there Ian! You might need someone to abide with you if you don’t have a stomach for booze. I’ll offer to take the Rev McCrea down the Krem to audition as a female impersonator. He’ll be playing to a rough crowd but hey it’ll be character forming.

  • SeekTruthFromFacts

    Dimbleby available on BBC News Channel, I believe.

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    Sure but drag acts are supposed to be grotesque. Like an oil painting, stand back from it to get the full effect.

  • Robin Keogh

    Gavin Robinsons acceptance speech is a disgrace

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    DUP a step forward? Who’s he trying to kid? Progress is apparently anti-agnossism. Shall I get out my Ulster Scootch/English dictionary to get a translation?

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    If he had a command of the English language (Queen’s English and all that) it might be ok. I’m still trying to get a comprehensible transcript but all search engines are coming back “Are you sure that’s English?”

  • Robin Keogh

    LOL

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    Arlene Darlene now says it’s been a dirty campaign, Is this how the DUP respond to a challenge?

  • Makhno

    Alasdair McDonnell looking very disorientated on RTE. Had to be told he was on air and announced his victory prior to the announcement.

  • Makhno

    I’d love to see his face at the moment. I hope he didn’t say the people of South Antrim will pay for this defeat.

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    Does the young strip of a thing Robinson understand what it could be like to be put under the threats that Naomi has bravely faced? It says a lot about the DUP, unionism in its desperation as a whole and the overwhelming fear of change that prompts G Robinson’s acceptance speech.

  • Makhno

    It worked for Sammy Duddy!

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    Says a great deal about the character of the individual (if only everybody listened to me). How empty does the bag have to be before he notices? My God, Belle*d’s speaking! I thought he was a mute nodding donkey.

  • david crookes

    Youse are all quare comeejins.
    Guess who’s the next DUP member of the House of Lords.

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    But he only played to the troops. Thats lyle!

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    “You bawsturbs shat may chihuahuas.” His mum was more a man than he ever was

  • Am Ghobsmacht

    Just looked at the Mid-Ulster breakdown; surely voting for a unionist candidate there is a waste of time, effort, paper and petrol?

    If ‘smash Sinn Fein’ is such a priority and having a MP that would attend Westminster is such an important argument (which it must surely be given the regularity with which the argument is deployed) then why don’t they lend their votes to the SDLP?

    As it stands (from a unionist perspective you understand) we have this:

    1/ A shinner victory – bad
    2/ No MP in attendance at Westminster – bad

    but if everyone weighed in behind the SDLP we could have this:

    1/ No Shinner victory, in fact, possibly a slightly miffed Gerry Adams – good
    2/ MP representation at Westminster – good
    3/ An SDLP who might correspondingly be more aware of the potential of unionist support – good

    BUT

    4/ The clincher – Voting for a ‘ta*g’ – ‘bad’.

    Surely ‘lowering’ oneself to vote for some one who kicks with the other foot is worth it IF the unionists of Mid-Ulster dislike SF as much as they profess (or indeed as much as I remember)?

    “BUT AG! What if the more sectarian elements of the SDLP start voting SF instead because of the influx of unionist votes”

    Well, now that you (well, I) asked:

    Well, Mid-Ulster unionism would be no worse off in that scenario than it is now…

    So why not give it a shot and run the risk of dislodging SF as opposed to the current SF-friendly strategy? (Which it is at the moment, ‘SF approved, rubber-stamped, thank ye kindly for your assistance dears’ complicity).

  • Chingford Man

    Nice one Tom.

  • notimetoshine

    That speech was hideous. When he talked about a shares future I honestly thought he was going to say “and the people of east Belfast rejected that shared future”. He didn’t but that seems to be the gist of the speech.

  • notimetoshine

    Hideous wasn’t it.

  • Makhno

    They killed Bambi and shot Pepsi in the testicle. Lest we forget.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Delighted to see Danny Kinahan in there in his place. I’ve always found Danny a refreshing change from virtually everyone else in political life here in the Wee Six. I have as yet to meet anyone with an ill word about him. A relaitive of mine who met him socially in London was surprised to find he was involved in politics here.

    He may convince some “real people” over there that some of our representatives do not think the kind of discourtesy to the defeated that Gavin Robinson is playing up to his voters de rigeur……..

  • SeaanUiNeill

    CB, morning finds me praying for an overall Conservative majority for the very first time in my life, so poor David Cameron does not have to “enjoy the company” of Gavin Robinson and his ilk.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Not that I’d accept a peerage myself in the new dispensation, David. I’m reminded of James I & VI knighting everyone he met on his way south to London in 1603. People used to ask of such people “Is he a gentleman?” “No, just a knight!” came the reply. But Peter will find congenial company, I expect.

  • Cue Bono

    If unionists in Mid Ulster can realistically kick the Sinner out then they should definitely vote Stoop at the next GE. Just as they have been doing in Londondonderry and South Down.

  • Cue Bono

    Get over it guys. You had your big party over the ‘fleg’. Now it is hangover time.

  • Cue Bono

    The Tories are in for a tiny majority. DUP votes in the future will be crucial. Overall a brilliant night for Northern Ireland unionists and the country as a whole. It would have been nice to see Bell take south Belfast, but on reflection we need the SDLP to stay reasonably strong to give decent nationalists a party to vote for.

  • david crookes

    Seann, the person whom I had in mind may well precede his party leader to the other place!
    As for the bigger picture, those of us who are old enough will recall what a pain in the neck a very small majority can be.
    Everyone is talking about five more years for DC. People need to read the book of James! The words ‘I remember Richard Nixon’ are swimming in my head together with the tune of ‘I remember Elvis Presley’.
    Before we know the EU referendum will be upon us.
    Call me old-fashioned, but I see the referendum in general as a barbarous instrument, akin to a series of troublemaking EGMs in a parish church. As far as I recall Charlemagne never held one.