Sunday Times poll suggests Sinn Fein leading in the battle of the opposition parties…

So, this is pretty good news for Sinn Fein:

Sunday Times Poll, State of Parties: FG 32 (+2) LAB 10 (-1) FF 16 (-4) SF 25 (+4) IND (No change)

Sunday Times Poll Satisfaction: Gerry Adams 46% (-2) Ends Kenny 41% (-3) Eamon Gilmore 34% (-1) Micheál Martin 33% (-7) Eamon Ryan 25%

The last few of the ST’s Behaviour and Attitudes Poll has been out of sync with other recent polls, notably the last Red C poll a few weeks back. But it doesn’t control for likelihood to vote in the way the Red C poll does.

Coming the week before the Fianna Fail Ard Fheis, it’s yet another awkward moment for that party. The truth is that there’s not been much play for them in the wider world of politics.

There’s some sense that SF is out, and nightly, winning the battle of the opposition parties on the airwaves. However the only party taking consistent scores out of most polls is Fine Gael, with Labour scoring down near its pre FF collapse figures in that corridor of 10 to 14 per cent.

But there’s a long way to go. Two years before the 2007 election private polling was suggesting large losses for Fianna Fail and strong gains for Sinn Fein. So there’s a long way to go yet. But it must be having an energising effect on Sinn Fein activists.

My own inner sceptic points out that in last February’s general election only Fianna Fail did noticeably better than the trend of polls in the traumatic period leading up to a forced election. Labour did slightly better at the end, but the Gilmore Gale had none of the transformative effects the party hoped for prior to the election campaign itself.

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  • FuturePhysicist

    And the lesson we are due to be told is ‘Never trust a poll taken by professional surveyors over a bunch of anonymous journalists’.

    Red C calls things reasonably close.

  • Nordie Northsider

    Curious to see how the SF rise is described as a gain from Fianna Fáil. I’d say that Labour is a much more likely source.

  • FuturePhysicist

    Well the simple maths above suggests that the “swing” away from FF is closer to the swing to SF rather than the swing away from Labour. Essentially even with the maximum gain +1 from Labour, SF gained +3 from FF … that is if you believe this poll.

    Now there may be simple a rebalancing here due to voter apathy as with any swing. SF could gain 4 points without any new voters, even losing voters … as long as there are deeper relative loss of voters in other parties … and perhaps instead of voters I should really mean ‘declared supporters’, which may be a far more loose a term.

    Again I will reiterate my previous challenge to the independence and capacity of this poll.

  • Nordie Northsider

    There have indeed been significant differences in the Sunday Times polling and RedC polls, particularly in relation to Labour support, which has been markedly lower in the Times polling.

  • Mick Fealty

    Labour scored a whopping nine percent in Red C in Autumn perhaps we should ask what we mean by a Labour vote.

  • tennorcleff

    Labour are down 10% and FG are down 4% in the past year. One budget down with a possible three more to go so lets see how long it is before the backbenchers, especially Labours cross the floor. Labour may need to look at the self-distruction done by the Greens to stop the rot. At present I am inclined not to put any preference next to my local Labour candidate. However I may give Nulty a higher preference vote