Gallagher surges to the front in #Aras11…

The Red C poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post has some interesting news:

Séan Gallagher jumped 18 points since the last Red C poll nine days ago, and is leading on 39%.

The Red C poll shows Michael D Higgins is in second place with 27%.

Martin McGuinness is down three points to 13%.

Gay Mitchell is down two points to 8%.

David Norris is down seven to 7%.

Mary Davis has lost five points to 4%.

Dana Rosemary Scallon is down three points to 2%.

It was enough to freak someone at McGuinness campaign tweetquarters (the current rating has the Sinn Fein man only just retaining his deposit)… But given the speed of this lead, I’d be wary of interpreting anything too deeply political..

The real drivers for Gallagher are plausibility, visibility and the desperation to find a winner… Micheal Martin will not be too upset about the optics of an FF man leading the field… But given he has so few current assets in the field (ie the electorate), anything is better than nothing…

The one person who will not be happy is the former front runner…  Michael D Higgins… It remains to be seen if he can pull out a sprint finish…

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty