Boundary changes and their possible effects…

For you hard core number crunchers, Nicholas Whyte has a great roundup of the boundary changes with numbers of voters (based on how they voted last time) over at the Stratagem election page… It is really worth reading down through the whole thing, not least for possible second or third phase plays in places like Strangford or East Antrim:

…one can see the boundary changes having the following likely effects:

Unionist gain from nationalists: almost certain in Lagan Valley, possible in South Antrim, South Belfast, and North Antrim.

Nationalist gain from unionists: almost certain in Strangford and East Antrim (though Alliance seats in both are also potentially at risk), possible in South Down.

But of course, this analysis is based on voters supporting the same parties in 2011 as they did in 2007, whatever the boundaries may be; and we can be pretty certain that that will not happen.