“What is clear is that Dublin’s perspective will not be the defining one.”

In his Irish Times European Diary Arthur Beesley sketches out the domestic political pressures elsewhere which may hinder the Irish Government’s attempt to renegotiate the terms of their bail-out.

From the Irish Times article

In Portugal, fellow socialist Jose Socrates talked himself into an early election a few weeks ago by failing to win support for a new austerity drive. The country is said to be in a funk of despair over the prospects of a bailout.

Look northwards from Spain and similar public pressures are at work. From France to Finland, domestic forces make it more likely that leaders will play hard for big concessions from Ireland for lower interest on bailout loans.

French president Nicolas Sarkozy received a walloping so bad in local elections 10 days ago that some media are asking whether he might face rivals for his party’s nomination in presidential election next year.

German chancellor Angela Merkel has had a similarly bruising time in regional polls, losing the key state of Baden-Württemberg in her latest setback. At the weekend the head of her junior coalition partner and foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, called it a day as head of the liberal Free Democrats. Less than two years into her current term, the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre on the European stage seems to narrow by the week. Given the pivotal role she plays in the debt emergency, this is crucial.

But she is not the only one feeling the strain. In the Netherlands last month, liberal prime minister Mark Rutte failed to win a senate majority for his minority coalition with the centre-right. This is the first time since 1918 that a new government did not take the senate, making it difficult for Rutte to pass laws.

Finland’s centre-right government derailed plans to up the lending capacity of the single currency bailout fund because of electoral pressure from a surging eurosceptic party.

In recent weeks, each of these four countries angled in their own way against any “easy” deal for Ireland on bailout interest. The Government may feel it has the weight of moral and economic right on its side, but this is not a moral question for its sponsors.

Read the whole thing.

I did ask, how is the collective mood now?

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  • HeinzGuderian

    Surely,as a Sovereign State,Oirland has the right to determine its own future ?

    But wait,what Tigger from yonder woods doth prowl…………..;-)

  • Henry94

    It is of corse a matter of great importance for those politicians to win their domestic elections but whoever they are replaced by will most likely continue to promote the European project. Ireland will put that project at risk one way or the other. Either by standing up for ourselves or being so crushed by attempts to pay the bank debt that we fold under the pressure.

  • wee buns

    Collective mood?
    Still much, much too depressed to even contemplating entering a discussion on this, but since the whole country is like living inside a big insane asylum…
    .
    We desperately need a referendum on the issue, as Iceland was afforded: the result would be a resounding NO WAY.

    To continue chucking cash into the black holes/pillars of our banks, says Constantine Gurdgiev (astute economist but also it seems rather gifted in analogies)
    “It’s like gold plating a Yugo and letting it sink somewhere.”

    Europe knows we can’t pay. We know we can’t pay. The senior bondholders are laughing their bellies off ‘cos we haven’t burnt them. Our purpose is to buoy the idea of a comprehensive EU until the elites make their legislative adjustments, the ones that impose legitimate burning. By 2013 we will be even more bankrupt and will have been ring-fenced by Europe.

    We is just a little pawn to be cast aside.
    The eternal curse of a small island on the edge of a continent…

  • Alias

    “The eternal curse of a small island on the edge of a continent…”

    Not at all. It’s the eternal curse of electing eurogombeens to political office. The gombeens of this ‘small island’ gave away 300 billion worth of its natural fishing resources to the EU, thereby ensuring that it would continue to be dependent on outside powers and always fall short of independence. The gombeens of this ‘small island’ gave away 500 billion worth of its natural fuel resources to the foreign corporations, thereby ensuring that it would continue to be dependent on outside powers and always fall short of independence. The gombeens of this ‘small island’ gave away 300+ billion worth of its future wealth generating resources to the EU in the form of guarantees to the EU’s eurosystem, thereby ensuring that it would continue to be dependent on outside powers and always fall short of independence. The gombeens of this ‘small island’ deliberately undermined the development of indigenous industry, thereby ensuring that it would continue to be dependent on outside powers and always fall short of independence. Oh, and take a look at the fields next time you drive through the country… nothing growing in them other than grass.

    As I pointed out at the time, the EU brought the IMF into the deal to ensure that Ireland would not be able to default on the debts that it was underwriting. The IMF is the lender of very last resort, so if you default to them then you won’t be able to borrow the 100+ billion that it would cost you to exit the Eurozone and re-establish a sovereign currency and banking system. Ergo, you are locked into it, and into servitude for perpetuity. The eurogombeens screwed you, but that’s what you get for voting for them.

  • Cynic2

    ‘moral right’ mis that those who borrow money pay it back on the terms agreed

  • wee buns

    “The eternal curse of a small island on the edge of a continent…”

    I was being facetious. You analysis is absolutely correct….but don’t forget that Donegal voted against the Lisbon Treaty (twice). Our fishing industry is decimated & we saw the writing on the wall.

  • Alias

    “‘moral right’ mis that those who borrow money pay it back on the terms agreed”

    Exactly, and not that those who didn’t borrow it – the taxpayers – should pay it back on terms they didn’t agree. It is therefore amoral that the EU should force those who didn’t borrow money to repay it. We should have a referendum as to wether or not the taxpayers want to underwrite debts of private business to foreign business. If they agree to do so on specificed terms, then sobeit.

    “…but don’t forget that Donegal voted against the Lisbon Treaty (twice).”

    You’re almost forgiven for spawning Daniel O’Donnell.

  • Mack

    ‘moral right’ mis that those who borrow money pay it back on the terms agreed

    Hear hear.

    They lent it to Fingers and Seanie Fitz, they can get it back of them..

  • wee buns

    We’ve got company: Portugal now asking for EU bailout.

  • manichaeism

    I saw this on the Telegraph website. Funny!

    It’s getting a bit like that old children’s song:

    There were 17 in the bed and the little one said roll over, roll over
    So they all rolled over and Greece fell out
    there were 16 in the bed and the little one said roll over, roll over
    So they all rolled over and Ireland fell out
    there were 15 in the bed and the little one said roll over, roll over
    So they all rolled over and Portugal fell out
    There were 14 in the bed and the little one said roll over, roll over,
    So they all rolled over and (Spain, Italy, Belgium -take your pick) fell out…………

  • wee buns

    Icelanders refuse bank debt payoff to Britain and Netherlands

    http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14979164,00.html