Ranking the Sinn Fein Prospects

 Five days out from polling day, Sinn Fein leaders have reason to be in good cheer. The latest polls (Sunday Independent and Sunday Business Post)have the party sitting on 12%, a figure which would put the party in serious contention for a number of seats in the mid-teens. Even slippage from this number should still return a tally of seats in double figures, catapulting the party into a previously unattainable position of relevance within the Dail.

I’ve had a go at attempting to rank the order of likely seats for the party, ranging from those which they should be able to bank on regardless of a late vote slippage to those which a late gust of support could bring across the line.

The (Almost) Certainties

Cavan Monaghan (1st seat): Caoimhghin O’Caolain, the party’s standard bearer in the Dail, first elected in 1997 and comfortably returned in the subsequent two elections.

Louth: Gerry Adams should have little difficulty here and is said to be in strong contention to top the poll.

Dublin South Central: The party’s solitary survivor in the 2007 Dublin meltdown, Aengus O’Snodaigh should be returned without too much difficulty.

Kerry North/ West Limerick: Always a hotly contested constituency due to the plurality of support around the four main parties here, Martin Ferris should still have enough to be returned.

Donegal South West: Pearse Doherty’s stunning by election victory likely to be followed up by a repeat show of electoral strength for the party’s rising star.

Donegal North East: Padraig MacLochlainn is strongly positioned to claim a seat for the party in this constituency, and with Fianna Fail and the Blaney clan in turmoil, a strong likelihood has become a virtual certainty.

 

The Urban Swing

Dublin South West: Sean Crowe was the surprise faller in 2007, and with Fianna Fail holding two seats in this constituency, even a modest swing back to Crowe could return him to the Dail.

Cork North Central: Jonathan O’Brien has been hotly tipped by numerous polls in the constituency and is the party’s best placed contender to make the historic breakthrough in Ireland’s third city.

Dublin North East: Party stalwart Larry O’Toole is well-positioned to benefit by claiming a seat.

Dublin North West: As is the case with O’Toole, Dessie Ellis should have enough to claim a seat here if the swing to the party predicted on a Dublin and statewide basis holds.

Dublin Central: The former MEP, Mary Lou McDonald, should (finally) receive her ticket to Leinster House- an important win for the party, too, as McDonald could be the only female returned for Sinn Fein to the Dail (unless a stronger breeze brings in the following seats.)

 

The Breeze Beneficiaries

Cavan Monaghan (2nd): If Kathryn Reilly can claim a seat here then the party will have succeeded in winning multiple seats in a constituency for the first time.

Laois-Offaly: Brian Stanley is a long serving elected representative in Laois and is said to be strongly positioned to take a seat here.

Meath West– Peadar Toibin has been tipped in a number of polls and analysis pieces as a possible winner.

Dublin Mid-West: If the ever impressive Eoin O’Broin can bring this seat in, he’ll make a bit of history by having been elected to constituencies in both Belfast and Dublin during his political career.

Cork East– Sandra McLellan, like Toibin, has been tipped in analysis pieces as a winner, as recently as yesterday’s Irish Times.

 

There are other possibilities, of course, with Maurice Quinlivan making noise in the congested Limerick constituency, though the party possibly missed a trick by not putting up the impressive Ruadhan MacAodhain in a constituency other than Dublin South East.

  • ranger1640
  • ranger1640
  • chewnicked

    Rsanger,
    It would be fair to say that the Indo would not be known to toe the Shinner line all that strongly.
    Boylesports has Adams at 1/10 to win a seat although the bookies can sometimes get it wrong. A case in point being the drubbing that Eastwoods took when it laid generous odds against Adams re-claiming the West Belfast seat from Joe Hendron.
    The big story in the election for Sinn Fein is whether they can win back the seats in Dublin lost last time around and perhaps one or two more.

    Adams in Louth,Dublin and Donegal successes and a ground-breaking first win in Cork would add up to a satisfactory performance.

  • Frame

    The Breeze Beneficiaries are unlikely winners given SF’s inability to get transfers. This is especially so regarding a second seat in Cavan-Monaghan where the Protestants won’t be transferring for starters.

    Wherever there are five seats (SF wants seven – I wonder why) there is a better chance.

    O Broin may be constituency-mobile but another word for that and for Steward Adams is ‘carpetbagger’.

  • granni trixie

    O’Broin demonstrated that he was totally insensitive to what has been endured in NI. He was not impressive in representing an area of Belfast eg when ‘Junior’ SF produced a badge of an Easter Lily with a petrol bomb in its centre he said to adult SFers” have you no sense of humour”. So he may do better “down south” to where SF offloaded him.

  • Mr Crumlin

    I guess we’ll all know by this time next week. I look forward to the the posts – hopefully a lot of anti-SF bloggers running for cover.

    As a SF supporter – I will be disappointed with anything less than 10. Happy with 10-12 and very happy with 13+.

    However – no matter what the number – I will be on Slugger, will the anti-Adams people also be here?

  • Comrade Stalin

    Louth: Gerry Adams should have little difficulty here and is said to be in strong contention to top the poll.

    I’d agree with that Chris, trouble is that SF are pouring resources into this constituency to ensure that it happens – at the expense of other marginals where they might have a chance of a seat if they put in the work. Seems like a daft strategy to me. The DUP used to do something similar to this in the 80s and 90s, which led to them being ironically under-represented.

  • Cynic2

    “Gerry Adams should have little difficulty here and is said to be in strong contention to top the poll.”

    Unfortunately Chris, despite the spin you put on this, the Independent On Sunday’s view was somewhat different. As I posted earlier (and will repeat here) the Indie’s article , if accurate, doesn’t bode well for Gerry:

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/adams-facing-battle-for-last-seat-2548151.html?from=dailynews

    For me the really cutting remark was the one almost buried away – “since he began to dabble in Irish politics”. Yes Gerry. You are a political culchie. A carpetbagger. Not one of us.

    Frankly, even if Gerry does trail in in fourth place it will be a humiliating defeat for him and for the Shinners policy. Then it really will be ‘time to go’ – to borrow a phrase.

  • ranger1640

    The baron von Mitty Gerry Adams, giving the invited audience of eminent Irish economists a visual depiction of his knowledge of economics.

    http://photos.independent.ie/gallery/The_campaign_trail/slideshow/Sinn_Fein_President_Gerry_Adams_in_the_National_Gallery,_Dublin,_during_Sinn_Fein's_General_Election/0adn4xUbFq6eR

  • ranger1640

    Above go to image 7

  • Cynic2

    “will the anti-Adams people also be here?”

    Of course we will.

    By the way is Liam canvassing for Gerry in Louth?. After all that time as a youth worker down and party chair down there many of his contacts may well now be of voting age. I am sure Gerry can count on their support.

  • ranger1640

    WATCHING Gerry Adams discuss the day-to-day politics of the Irish Republic brings to mind Dr Johnson’s famous quip about a woman preaching being like a dog walking on its hind legs: “It’s not done well, but you are surprised to find it done at all.”

    After decades when all he needed was a few stock phrases about “the reality of the situation” and “the politics of condemnation”, the Sinn Fein president suddenly faces trickier questions about child benefit and VAT rates. There are times that he’s looked less well-briefed than a streaker. Then again, Enda Kenny probably doesn’t know one end of a Kalashnikov from another.

    Not that Gerry would know about such stuff either, of course. As he keeps repeating, the Sinn Fein leader was never a member of the IRA.

    Adams accuses his opponents of throwing up the past because they’re scared of the Sinn Fein surge; but to be honest, it’s a bit rich to be told to move on by a man who still seems a tad upset about the outcome of the Battle of the Boyne…

    He’s not exactly helping us forget with some of his more colourful rhetoric either.

    On Newstalk last week, he actually referred to the Universal Social Charge as “an act of gross terrorism”, prompting some wags to wonder why he wasn’t making excuses for it then.

    Eilis O’Hanlon

    http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/gerry-masters-hindlegs-bit-2548039.html

  • Kadfoomsa

    There is a week to go and as seen above the indo / sindo will go into overdrive this week.

    My understading from Sinn Féin voices is that the party would be very pleased indeed to get into double figures at all.

    But if Sinn Féin got 10-12 seats, their opponents would protray this as disappointing and a meltdown anyway.

    I think Sinn Féin could get as low as 8 seats, possibly as high as 12, but no higher.

  • John Ó Néill

    Given that they only launched their manifesto late last week, I think most emphasis will be placed on FG this week – particularly since both Labour and FF will feel that clawing FG back in the polls may make it more likely that FG will need a coalition partner rather than independents to form a government. There are a number of issues that will be being pushed to dominate the next week – the fanciful growth rates that are buried in the FG economic policy, Enda having to do a three way debate on Tuesday, issues around graduate taxes, and at local levels, their Irish language policy and various concerns around public sector employment. I’ve yet to see it in print, but there is also a story floating about Enda Kenny’s teachers pension (allegedly he did 4-5 years teaching 30 years ago but has just agreed a deal to get the equivalent pension and golden handshake for all 34-5 years), which will be being hoped to damage him.

    As to the ranking – I’d swap Stanley and O’Toole around but not much else. Given that the only real poll that counts is on Friday, the real interest is in transfers since (ancedotally so far) FF appear likely to outstrip SF in transfer repellance. Similarly, even a mild SF bounce will impact on the order of elimination in some constituencies, drawing in proportional transfers that may elect some TDs further down Chris’ rankings. Particularly where Labour have gone for speculative multi-candidate strategies based on their initial 30% or so ratings. Now, hovering around 20%, they may have unintentionally fragmented their vote in some constituencies where they might have thought there was a second seat. The counts are going to be worh following in detail.

  • vanhelsing

    Perhaps we should run a caption contest on Lord Ardoynes photo from the Irish Independent [number 7]

    ‘I know this much about the Republics Economy’

    ‘This is how much truth I tell’

    ‘I care this much about the death of Jean McConville as she helped a Brit’

    Suggestions welcome… 🙂

  • The best result for Sinn Fein might be if he fails to get elected. If common deceny prevails and he is rejected, then Sinn Fein could plonk the plonker into the Senate, where he cold spoof away whenever the urge to attend overtook his slothful tendencies.
    This would allow Sinn Fein to sideline him and begin the inevitable process of disowning those who engineered the sectarian slaughter in Belfast and the human bomb attacks in Derry.
    If common sense does not prevail (or if it does…) and he is elected, he will be a lightning rod in Leinster House whenever serial or sectarian killers are mentioned.
    The best bet for Pinnochio Doherty is to cut a deal with Labour and jump ship.
    Once Adams goes down, his yes muppets will inevitably follow.

  • Chris,

    Surely this is a once-in-a-lifetime election for SF – is a mid-teens outcome really going to be enough to justify the strategy that they’ve been pursuing for the last 15-20 years?

  • oracle

    Mr Crumlin,
    You posted the following

    “As a SF supporter – I will be disappointed with anything less than 10. Happy with 10-12 and very happy with 13+.

    However – no matter what the number – I will be on Slugger, will the anti-Adams people also be here?”

    IS THAT SOME SORT OF JOKE ???

    The Irish economy in the most disastrous situation since the Norman invasions and the Irish peoples despair the worst since the Great Famine.
    All the political party’s are heavily smeared with blame and the cronies’ network all except one SF.

    With the entire country leaning left and looking for an alternative to the forthcoming financial pain every orgasmic political dream SF ever had in the south is coming to fruition.
    The only other possible better help that SF could get would be if British warships laid siege to Dublin port and shelled the GPO.

    For the SF party machine to only take 30 seats amidst this National fiasco then this should be seen as an election disaster… yet here on Slugger we have people thinking 10 is good and 13 is great.

    Even if they just won 15 seats that is only 1 seat in every 11 available and would be a bloody embarrassment., and enough to make the party activist to think about calling it a day as election failures.

  • Mick Fealty

    I would add a few other outside chances:

    – Sligo North Leitrim, where Labour are ripping their vote to shreds.

    – Waterford – David Cullinane.

    – Carlow Kilkenny – Kathleen Funchion.

    And really outside, Mayo.

    I’ve heard Stanley’s name mentioned too, but if you look at the past record, I can’t see where his vote is coming from.

  • oracle

    Cynic 2 said

    “By the way is Liam canvassing for Gerry in Louth?. After all that time as a youth worker down and party chair down there many of his contacts may well now be of voting age. I am sure Gerry can count on their support.”

    lol…. Twack…. home run

  • It is very amusing to watch the anti-SF mob on Slugger grasping at Sindo twigs. Drennan’s piece is pure and utter tripe, O’Reilly propaganda if you like. Take this line for example:

    “The Fine Gael surge had put paid to any hopes of Mr Adams topping the poll, but strong campaigns by Labour and the second Fine Gael candidate Peter Fitzpatrick have damaged the Adams brand. ”

    Fitzpatrick has been atrocious from start to finish. If you don’t believe me, have a listen to this masterpiece performance:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmZuKpLC1cs

    Then there’s the line: “In a humiliating put-down over the ongoing debate about Mr Adams’ tangled relationship with the IRA, Fine Gael’s Fergus O’Dowd told Mr Adams “you’re no Michael Collins”. ”

    I listened to that debate live on the Pat Kenny show the other morning. Unfortunately you can’t listen to it again as for some reason RTE haven’t made it available via podcast as they’d normally do but Adams wiped the floor with the lot of them, Kenny included. Go look at the live comments on the show on politics.ie for a fair reflection of how things went.

  • Chris Donnelly

    Paul Evans
    An unequivocal yes to your answer.

    Sinn Fein could be on the verge of making the significant jump from bit player voice in the margins to one of the two mainstream political opposition parties if a FG-Lab coalition emerges.

    That’s significant, not least because (in spite of party rhetoric) it could be more than enough to prepare the ground for a FF-SF coalition in the near future.

    Now, that’ll likely depend upon a speeding up in the party’s maturing process in policy terms. But the foundations will be well and truly established.

  • Chris Donnelly

    Obviously ‘to’ should be replaced with ‘is’…….still on cloud nine after *that* result…..

  • barelegs

    Not a bad summary Chris. Not sure about Larry O’Toole, the boundary changes from the last election haven’t helped, moved a stronghold out of the constituency and I think its Portmarnock in. Dessie Ellis will do well.

    Mick, Brian Stanley will pick up a huge proportion of the vote around Portlaoise with the Labour camp split (eventful selection convention to say the least). Sinn Féin polled well in Offaly in the local elections and with Cowen gone can pick up votes.

    Reading through constituency commentaries on politics.ie they might be in with a shout of the last seat in Wicklow with John Brady and Limerick with Maurice Quinlivan. Willie O’Dea won’t poll 19,000 votes again and he and Quinlivan share a similar base and this vote has to go somewhere. Sinn Fein polled well in Wicklow in the locals and John Brady may benefit if the Labour vote is split by 3 candidates and the ULA vote of Nicky Kelly a Labour member up until a few weeks ago.

    Best chance in Carlow- Kilkenny may be with John Cassin the second candidate, showed up surprisingly well in a local opinion poll. Not so sure about Cork East though Cork South Central might be a better shout for the last seat again. Transfers will probably hurt SF in all these places. Should provide a very good vote to build on for the future.

  • Mr Crumlin

    Posted by Oracle:

    “IS THAT SOME SORT OF JOKE ??? etc”

    Not at all – its realistic. Ten years ago SF had ONE TD, ONE! To increase that ten fold in ten years would be a huge step in the right direction.

    I also think the next election is the critical one for SF – thats why they need the sound base this time round. In fact that only requires 7 seats for speaking rights etc. Also if we get Mary Lou n Pearse back in then we have a strong team to speak up for those that will be absolutely shafted in the next few years.

    Also as the Dublin mass media builds up the anti-SF rhetoric then I am more convinced they may even do better than the polls suggest – but like I say we will know next weekend.

    Anti-SF bloggers can spin this election anyway they want but as a SF supporter I will be happy with 10+.

  • Frame

    With Labour on the slide they are saying to left wing voters if you don’t want a Fine Gael majority government you mustn’t waste your vote on an independent candidate (ULA) and by implication SF.

    This will harm the SF percentage vote especially among public sector workers.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Id dismiss the Sunday Independent story as nonsense. Its not serious journalism and is really just knockabout stuff and the kinda thing political messageboards (and indeed football messageboards) do on a daily basis.
    The appropriate headlines for next weekends Independent and messageboards are already written. They just need tweaked.
    “SF Disaster” (anything less than 14 seats).
    “SF ….Voters Shame” (anything more than 14).
    And to some extent, SF might get headlines the way Manchester United get headlines for beating mighty Crawley Town. 1-0 was enough.

    As with any election, there will be surprising successes. As with any election there will be the hard luck stories coupled with stories of bad vote management which have allowed a party to “take one against the head” or “blow it”.
    Transfers is the one thing on which SF cant rely and geographically their performance will be mixed.
    The “Northern Command” border counties….inner city Dublin……..the rebel fringe in Cork/Kerry..can probably be relied on to bring in the basic 10 seats (the lowest acceptable “success” figure) and the good luck/hard luck stories are likely to be found in constituencies to bring the figure to 11-12 (breakthru from SFs perspective, derisory for “Adams-haters” ) 13-14 (reasonably neutral analysts would agree on breakthru) 15-16 (even the most obsessive Adams-hater would have to start saying “shame on the electorate”.
    Mr Fealty mentions Laois-Offaly……Flanagan blueshirt country ……as a potential SF gain. That would be a breakthru from just 5% last time.
    Yet it strikes me that Labour are already the losers…..certainly since the real campaign actually began….the notion that Gilmore can be Taoiseach is now risible and their campaign is fractured (in Sticky versus Real Labour terms) and they seem reduced to calling fo the electorate to allow them into coalition for the expressed purpose of minimising FGs rampant blue-shirtedness.
    Actually they would be better in opposition than being the very junior partner. Being junior partner would only drive more voters to Sinn Féin.

  • Mary LouQuinlavin. O’Toole, Ellis. With the exception of Pinnochio Doherty, Sinn Fein will have only tongue tied TDs. The repsectable TDs of FF, FG and Lab wil learn their keep if they have to listen to that sorry lot.

  • Zachariah Tiffins Foot

    I’m about as far from a Sinn Féin supporter as one could get yet I am taken aback by what its fans hope to achieve in the Republic’s election.

    It’s well put by Oracle already, but short of platoons of Black and Tans issuing forth from the British Embassy to burn Leinster House, what more could Jerry’s gang hope for going into this election?

    What in God’s name do they expect to see happen that will put them in a better position in the future?

    Carrying the leaden weight of Baron Adams into the Dáil, if his abilities can be suggested by his lack of knowledge about three-letter abbreviations – be they IRA or VAT, Sinn Féin will soon be seen to have feet of clay. Especially so given that there appears to be no real stars going to be elected that will do a good enough turn to shield the doddering grandda from public gaze. I disregard the hype surrounding TD Doherty as, seemingly, the Great Green Hope.

    Perhaps the shinners, especially those in Northern Ireland, worry that the Plain People of Ireland ain’t as easily suckered as they have been?

  • Coll Ciotach

    Oracle – the entire country leaning left? that explains the FG poll figures.

    I think a bit of realism needs to creep in here. SF took years to break the SDLP grip on nationalism. It will take years to break the FF/FG grip. Labour have not done it despite many false dawns. The last insurgence is now over 15 years ago and most people worry more about their tomorrows than the past. The slurs on SF will not work, What will is the destruction of their left wing economic fairy tales. The people of the republic are not left wing, they consistently reject left wing politics. This is the problem SF has not the baggage of yesteryear. Since Adams and the Belfast brigades took over after the hunger strike they have moved steadily away from their roots. This has been of no real consequences in the north were tribal loyality supercedes all but not in the south were themuns are of no consequence.

    If SF make double or near double figures in TD’s they are one the road to government in the south in the next few years.

    The problem of breaking electoral habits should be obvious to all in the wee six. This is a graveyard for political parties trying to get started. FF have not even made a dent in the north despite their much publicised office openings and walks with Matt Baggott. They have failed even to get off the ground. FG are scared even to dip their toe in. Both lack real credibility as nationalist never mind republican parties. Even the Greens have more claim to be a nationalist party.

  • @fitzjameshorse1745

    Speaking rights with plus Adams (7/8 seats) would be a ‘success’ especially if that came with McDonald and Doherty. Sinn Féin and any members I know would have taken, and been glad of that 6 months ago when they were 7% in the polls.

  • perseus

    speaking rights + green paper on irish unity hopefully ulick
    chris I’m excited by the SF-FF coalition, what dya know? 😉

  • Mark

    FF – SF coalition in the near future …..

    Lets hope so , there are homes in Blackrock , Booterstown , Mount Merrion , Dun laoghaire etc who are loathe to vote FG but are still a little hesitant to make the jump . I can understand that O’Broin was needed elsewhere but Andrew’s reputation is in tatters and Boyd – Barrett’s circus act is just daft . The middle class are pissed off aswell ! Are you listening Sinn Fein ?

  • Cynic2

    “Id dismiss the Sunday Independent story as nonsense. ”

    ….but Chris is keen to obtain what crumbs of comfort he can from the Independent’s poll while you rubbish the reporting

  • oracle

    perseus,

    A “green paper on Irish unity”

    was that not the good friday agreement thats what SF sold it as..?????

    whens the referendum on irish unity??? got a date yet

  • Cynic2

    “Carrying the leaden weight of Baron Adams into the Dáil …..”

    ….my point exactly. The more exposure Irish electors have to him the better and all the better too, to keep him busy elsewhere and help remove the whiff of cordite from NI Politics.

    Also the Enterprise is looking very empty these days so it will be good to see him and the entourage filling the seats in First Class (on Dail expenses of course) and helping NIR’s profits rather than hanging around the BMI Business lounge at Heathrow

    As a Unionist I WANT him to win but preferably in 3rd or 4th position in the seat

    PS Heres a conundrum for SF. If hes successful will he be willing to travel on the ‘British’ NIR Enterprise train or insist on using the ‘Irish’ CIE train? The lights will burn late in Connolly House on that one

  • Mick Fealty

    Remember this is just territory.

    These low percentages for FF are going to get a punt up from a Bradley effect, not just people returning Labour, but quite a few from SF too.

    The parlous state of the polls will be enough to spring some of the old generation back in to FF action.

    You are battling incumbency and an infrastructure, which even if it is depleted will generate votes where people thought better.

    Ulick, I didn’t hear the PK show, but I would not be surprised if he bested Kenny. But

  • perseus

    oracle

    “was that not the good friday agreement thats what SF sold it as”..?????

    Irish parties are free to campaign up North,
    As are UK unionists:
    Cameron did it last GE on a Unionist/Conservative ticket.

    The ROI is free to establish a paper on irish unity, free to grant speaking rights to Northern TD’s

    The GFA provides for all of that.

    “whens the referendum on irish unity??? got a date yet”

    We’ll have a close look at the census this year ..
    you’re the oracle, don’t you know the date ?

    One “?” is fine bye the way

  • Cynic2

    By the way, has anyone in the Irish Election raised the problems that SF’s Old Mucker Mr Ghadaffi seems to be having.

    Indeed, weren’t many of Gerry’s former comrades in the movement trained at camps in the Libyan Desert by the old genocidal tyrant? And wasn’t it the man who is now allegedly machine gunning his own people and having snipers shoot mourners at funerals who funded PIRA and provided all its guns for a good few years, enabling it to carry on murdering many Irishmen and Women (as well as the odd Brit).

    What great company SF has kept down the years!

    Given SF’s claimed squeaky clean image, can Gerry account for the connection with the mad megalomaniac and exporter of terror?

  • Cynic2

    “Speaking rights with plus Adams (7/8 seats) would be a ‘success’ ”

    …..funny but just a few weeks ago they were talking of themselves as holding the balance of power and even as partners in a coalition Government. How expectations have fallen

  • JeanMeslier

    Cynic2. After reading your contributions printed above in relation to the Sindo article, already carried in a different slugger thread, please forgive me for doing the same below:

    Ah Cyndi 2. After the last three weeks of attacking the SF President/candidate for Louth/East Meath we are left with this S(indo) article.
    Is there not even a small hint of embarrassment and a grasping of straw-like material present in your latest contribution?
    Can I just say I admire the way you probably punch the air when you read the “sources now believe” quote, because we all know what that means, don’t we Cyn?
    Enough of the garbish my friend.
    I finish with a direct quote from your good self.
    “…Roll on next weekend and we will see…”

  • @Cynic2 you are losing the run of yourself there. I can’t remember anything within the last few weeks where they’ve suggested they’d be holding the balance of power.

  • New Yorker

    Gains in the SF vote would be harmful to the Republic’s reputation in the international community. Putting terrorists in government who seek to make Ireland an outlaw state is never wise especially at this time of need of international economic resources. Think carefully about the ramifications of your vote on international opinions on where Ireland is headed.

  • Cynic2

    Jean

    Do read my post at 5.46 and you will see that I actually want him to get a seat – and you will see why

  • Cynic2

    “I can’t remember anything within the last few weeks where they’ve suggested they’d be holding the balance of power.”

    During Biffos political deaththrows and around the time when Gerry’s Candidature was first announced his Imperial Majesty’s approach was to talk about his duty to help save Ireland and SF fellow runners ;’speculated’ how well they could do. Of course that was then. Now its now and the election looks like perhaps 8 to 11 seats

    I am too boring to lose the run of myself!

  • I think you are delving into a bit of revisionism there Cynic2. As I said there was no speculation on holding the balance of power and as I remember most SF activists were of the opinion that Adams going to Louth was a gamble too far. One that could wreck chances of any gains and hold the Party up for ridicule if he lost.

  • Mark

    New Yorker ,

    I think World opinion is wondering how the British Govt were sold such a big pup by the good old Col .

    How did they let themselves get hoodwinked like that .

    Free Oil my arse , no really he’ll be dead in weeks …..

  • Cynic2

    “Gains in the SF vote would be harmful to the Republic’s reputation in the international community.”

    Ah but that all depends upon your world view, doesn’t it. An Ireland voting in favour of SF would play well with some on the International stage:

    Venezuela – for contributions to promoting bird watching holidays in Latin America and the gas cylinder recycling industry in Colombia

    The Palestinian State – all those old training sessions in Libya

    Hammas – being Anti-British

    Hezboullah – being Anti British

    Libya – for past export achievements in the ‘machine tools’ industry

    Iran – they need any friends they can get

    to name just a few.

    They might even pick up some fraternal greeting from those other beacons of democracy in Burma and Zimbabwe.

  • Cynic2

    Ulick

    “delving into a bit of revisionism”

    My God ….A SF supporter accusing someone of revisionism? I must have been very bad!

  • New Yorker

    Mark

    In the US we are very concerned about the judgment of the previous UK government on all matters concerning Libya. But we have multiple concerns and especially some of us with Irish heritage wish the Republic well and believe its standing in the international community is very important and voting SF puts their international reputation is question.

  • New Yorker

    Cynic2

    Don’t forget the ‘banking’ and ‘hospitality’ industries in Bulgaria.

  • New Yorker, with respect you’d be better off sorting out your own back yard and working on your own miserable ‘international reputation’ before coming out with lines like that. If the Irish government did a little less worrying about their international reputation and a little more worrying about the welfare of their own people then we wouldn’t be in the current mess re the bond holders.

  • Kevin Barry

    NY, do you work for the State Department?

  • JeanMeslier

    Cynic2
    Re: your John Drennan – Sunday Independent – article.
    This example produced by yourself exposes the void in your contribution.
    However, please permit me to comment on the “anti-Adams campaigner from Cork” who according to Drennan made his way to County Louth today in an effort to dissuade voters from supporting the SF candidate.

    Whilst I have no previous knowledge of Mr. John V Lennon, I am sure both you and he could have many a constructive conversation into the wee small hours comparing your pathological hatred of Irish Republicanism, to the detriment of no other person living on this illegally divided, small island.
    Viva the numerous anti-Adams campaigners and eternal victory to their beloved cause!!!
    Amen.

  • Three polls results today (SBP, Sindo & tomorrows Irish Times) and not one blog from Baker on them. This is all a bit strange since he has blogged every other poll for the past few weeks, even to the extent that he went off to get the last SBP results second hand from IOL. What has him so reticent today one wonders… as if…

  • Mark

    New Yorker ,

    You wouldn’t be feeling homesick at all would you ? Its all very well playing Mother Theresa in the North Atlantic but you can’t pick and choose which regimes are pc this week .

    There are more important things like whats happening in North Africa and protests in the UK ……and petrol at 1.46 to start nitpicking about reputations .

  • Mark

    We all know where the US is going next ….we just don’t have the exact time and day .But you’ll be there for that oil come hell or high water … the Brits will be on bended knees begging you … so lets stop with the concerned parent bit .

  • New Yorker

    Ulick

    Do you support putting terrorists in government and making the Republic an outlaw state? It is because the FF government cared more for bankers and property developers that they are in the mess they are in both domestically and internationally. I cannot see how electing ignorant terrorists contributes to clearing up the mess. But perhaps you can enlighten.

  • New Yorker

    Mark

    The same question for you. How does electing ignorant terrorists and advocating the Republic become an outlaw state contribute to solving the mess in the Republic?

    Your inane comments do nothing but detract from the discussion.

  • Kevin Barry

    I believe they gave up the guns NY, case you hadn’t heard. I’m sure I could find a link or two for you if you want some proof?

  • New Yorker: Ask NY Rep Peter King as he is the biggest cheer leader for Sinn Fein. Plus he doesn’t like Arabs.

  • JAH

    Adams now has to deal the McConville issue

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-12517623

    Adams has some explaining to do and it maybe its time he did so.

    I hope the voters of Louth ask themselves if they want as an MP a man who could even countenance this woman’s murder.

    I hope they give Adams the answer he deserves and he slips into the footnotes of history.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Talking about “putting terrorists in government” is ridiculous. It’s not 1995 anymore.

  • New Yorker

    Kevin Barry

    Let me bring you up to date: http://quinnsupport.org/main.html

  • Mick Fealty

    Ulick,

    Are we to draw negative conclusions from your failure to show on a number of threads? Rather than playing the man, tell us what your reasoning is for asking the question in the first place.

    None of these polls say anything much different from last weeks. Jody Corcoran’s pushing his big idea from a few weeks ago saying people want Enda on the basis that he is the peoples’ favourite (on a low percentage, with very little points advantage over his rival leaders).

    Sinn Fein’s ratings are good compared to last autumn’s 8, 9, 10 point ratings, but they are down from the 14, 15, 16 ratings of late ’10 and January ’11.

    Chris has shown us some of the territory we can expect to see them at play in. But it’s too tight to know from the current ratings whether they will get a result in the top or the bottom end of that territory.

    Any one who tells you they do know one way or the other, is blagging.

  • Kevin Barry

    Oh deary me NY. Have you any proof? A few guys who were in the Provos does not a Provo hit make.

    As for Ireland’s reputation going down the pan if SF got into any kind of power, doesn’t seem to be too much of a problem for Hilary last time I checked.

  • New Yorker

    Alan Maskey

    You are right about Peter King. He too does not like people reminding him of his past. It will eventually catch up with him. He’s not the brightest of people and there is much evidence of his unqualified support for terrorism.

  • Mark

    A conversation or a lecture ? So thats not going to happen then ..

  • Mick Fealty

    Right NY, this is a politics site, not a place where you can play a game of revenge at will. Deal with the subject (not the object) in hand, or stay out!

  • New Yorker

    If there are headlines such as ‘Big SF Gains in Election’ in the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times it will have very negative effects on Ireland’s economic future. And hopefully voters will keep that in mind. If one wants to cast a protest vote, go for the Greens or Labour. I believe voters will be aware next Friday of possible negative consequences of their vote in the way the world sees them. Therefore I doubt the SF vote will much exceed its historic high.

  • Kevin Barry

    NY

    Same happened in Brazil before Lula came and his time in charge seemed to go swimmingly.

    Nobody likes to be threatened on who they should or should not vote for, stop while you’re ahead.

  • New Yorker

    Kevin Barry

    Brazil is a major world exporter. Ireland is a country that needs investment and financial assistance. The two countries are not comparable.

    I don’t know where you find an element of threat is my position, I’m just advising you of consequences in international opinion, especially in the international financial and business community. And, as I said above, I believe many voters will keep it in mind. My experience in speaking with Irish people is that they are rightfully proud of being an excellent member of the international community. But few commentators consider that when opining about how people will vote.

  • Cynic2

    New Yorker

    You are learning that in Ireland on political blogs almost anything goes but, for many commentators on Slugger, we have an offence of Lesse Majestie in respect of any negative comments about the Blessed Baron Adams,

    Any such comment, especially in the the of an election where things aren’t going as well as hoped for the Great Bearded One, will result in gallons of bile splashing in your own direction.

    They will call you a fool, knave, political illiterate etc and tell you to get back to your own country and sort it out first before coming and telling us what to do.

    On this one , the voters will speak in 5 days time and as Mick says, all the speculation in the meantime is pissing in the wind. However, I don’t mind risking a few splashes by predicting that:

    1 Gerry will scrape home in Louth on a protest vote from the economically challenged

    2 SF will get 8 to 11 seats with not a sniff of power

  • Kevin Barry

    NY,

    Brazil’s a major exporting nation? Really? I didn’t know that.

    Unfortunately, the point that was made by me and ignored or not spotted by you was that while the WSJ and others may bemoan the election of others who don’t have their interests at heart and like to predict the apocalypse if they happen to get into power, they have been known to be both wrong and working to a Murdoch lead agenda.

    While you may try and pretend that you’re merely offering advice on how to vote, an outsider saying

    ‘Think carefully about the ramifications of your vote on international opinions on where Ireland is headed’

    may also be construed as threatening and please don’t pretend otherwise.

  • New Yorker

    Kevin Barry

    The WSJ and FT would report and those who decide to buy a country’s bonds or locate an office or factory would factor in where a country is headed based on how a country votes. If you find that threatening, urge people not to vote SF. Incidentally, I’m not an outsider.

  • Kevin Barry

    NY

    And the bond market or decision makers would read the WSJ and FT every morning and decide on what bonds to buy or where to locate a factory?

    See my post re Lula and the same papers predicting Armageddon if he was voted in and you will see my point which seems to be breezing nicely over your head.

  • New Yorker

    Ireland is not Brazil. So you point does not apply.

    Of course people who make corporate decisions read the WSJ and FT. Do you doubt that?

  • Neil

    NY,

    First of all, being an American I’m sure you’ll appreciate the outworkings of democracy, and accept whoever is elected.

    On the subject of accepting the decisions of a country’s population on who should govern them how do you feel about the USA’s dithering while the protests are ongoing in the middle east? The Americans didn’t actually seem too happy about democracy hitting some of those countries did they? I guess they liked the puppets in charge?

    Moving along, how do you feel about the USA vetoing the UN resolution condemning illegal Israeli settlements? It seems to me, quite aside from their will we/won’t we apporach to supporting democracy in the Middle East, the USA is also happy to support criminal behaviour under international law from it’s friends.

    Leaving aside the cast iron fact that many Arab countries feel as if the US is the terrorist – being as how they arm the enemies of Arabs in the region, and have launched two wars leading to a total body count of over a million. Believe me your international rep is not that great, especially if you include all the countries on Earth and not just he rich ones in the west.

    FInally, and sorry to jump across threads, but the last I spoke to you you were telling us how NI was an international laughing stock and would lose investment due to the water being cut off for a fortnight after the most sever winter storms in decades, I had countered you with the following question: How long did it take FEMA to get water to the Superdome in Louisiana? I await a response.

  • Kevin Barry

    NY

    My point Is applicable, your saying that it isn’t doesn’t make it so.

    As for what decision makers read, they’re called balance sheets not broadsheets.

  • billythekid

    . The whole putting terrorists in government thing is soooooo 1990. If Paisley and Robo can handle it I’m sure the south can…..even though there is no chance of Sinn Fein actually being in government, god knows that’s the last thing they want.