UUP’s full list of chosen candidates..

The candidates

North Antrim:            Bill Kennedy                Robin Swann 
East Antrim:              Roy Beggs (Jnr)        Rodney McCune 
South Antrim:            Danny Kinahan          Adrian Watson 
North Belfast:             Fred Cobain 
West Belfast:             Bill Manwarring 
South Belfast:            Mark Finlay                Michael McGimpsey 
East Belfast:              Reg Empey                Tim Lemon 
North Down:               Colin Breen                Leslie Cree 
Strangford:                 David McNarry          Mike Nesbitt 
South Down:              John McCallister 
Newry & Armagh:      Danny Kennedy 
Lagan Valley:             Mark Hill                     Basil McCrea 
Upper Bann:              Jo-Anne Dobson       Sam Gardiner            Colin McCusker 
F&ST:                         Kenny Donaldson      Tom Elliott 
Mid Ulster:                  Sandra Overend 
West Tyrone:             Ross Hussey 
East Londonderry:    David Harding           Lesley Macaulay 
  
Foyle:                          Still to select 
  • and?

  • Truth & Justice

    Nothing to worry about then.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    26 men……3 women

  • Joseph Addison

    Leslie Cree 70
    Sam Gardiner 71
    Fred Cobain 65
    M GcGimpsey 63
    D McNary 63
    If they win 12 seats that means 42% will still be over 63 at the start of the 2011 Assembly why does David Campbell persist in augmenting these pensioners incomes and piling more of our dosh into their already gold plated pension pots. Will they all guarantee us no council seats and no family in their OCA claims?

  • An Phoblacht Abu

    i see they have Peter Griffin standing in west tyrone then

  • plainly speaking

    Foyle – still to elect …. quick, get a message to Ian Parsley!

  • dennis

    looks like reg is giong to double job

  • Joseph Addison

    I think Reg should take the Conservative whip and not bother with the Assembly as this will be seen as double jobing, TTL that it appears got sweet f— all.

  • Joseph Addison

    Sorry i missed out the Soup Stirrers name out.

  • WhiteKnight

    That list is simply dire and dull.

    UUP will be down to 14 (maybe less).

    WhiteKnight

  • Drumlins Rock

    think what your trying to say there is 83% of the candidates are under 63.

  • iluvni

    ..and Eric Cartman in East Antrim

  • Drumlins Rock
  • jeep55

    Like the gender balance! And the double jobbing – no better than the SDLP! Alliance (not double jobbing) will have a field-day! I also see they are only contesting 2 seats in E Belfast – they used to put up 3 candidates. They will of course only win one seat there where an early prediction of the resultis:

    2 DUP 1 UUP 1 independent (Purvis) 2 APNI

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Yes Alliance will have a field day and sweep all before them west of the Bann……or alternatively they will win an extra seat in East Belfast.

  • Michael Shilliday

    The number of women is disappointing given how many applied, but, it is better than last time for that very reason – more women applied.

    I voted against the new process for selection, but I have to say that I agree with the results it produces almost entirely. The decision in East Londonderry is very much the exception to this – it’s utter madness. There was some talk of a solution coming earlier in the day but that seems to have evaporated. We have gone from a very very (almost no) slim chance of a second seat to having less than a fighting chance of keeping the seat we have. I’ve never sat on a selection committee, but frankly I get the impression that they are badly chaired.

    Had we had this line up in 2007, we’d have done better than we did, and we would have a better reputation than we have now. Unfortunately this may be too little too late, but I very much hope not.

    I think that keeping the second seat in Upper Bann isn’t NECESSARILY hindered by running too many candidates. I think that keeping the second in East Antrim will be easier than it might have been, but in North Down it might be a stretch too far. Boundary changes and with no Donaldson to skew the DUP vote in Lagan Valley make Mark Hill’s chances worth looking at, and a gain in West Tyrone is almost certain. That said Fred Cobain will be under his traditional amount of pressure and might see his luck run out this time. I also would say it’s more likley than not that we will struggle to retain the seat in East Londonderry.

    All in all holding 18 seats (and I say 18 on the basis of swapping North Down for West Tyrone) would be a win for Tom Elliott, but frankly doing even that will be a massive improvement on his position right now. Almost no matter what happens, his core team is going to increase in number.

  • Michael Shilliday

    Sorry, obviously a gain in Strangford is strong second in the list of targets.

  • Laughing (Tory) Unionist

    Shillers, do you *never* learn?

  • pia_lugum

    What a pity the UUP has so little to choose from nowadays!
    Of the women, only the Dobson woman in Upper Bann seems to me to have any of the direct political experience to help run the assembly in dire economic times. She should also easily realise her desire to sideline the now aging Sammy Gardiner.
    However do they justify the sacking of McLarty in Coleraine for the little-known Macauley and is it true that there are many resignations among the party faithful there? I cannot see Macauley being much of a help to the UUP or much of a worry to the nationalists – or any body else for that matter. But she should be at least as useful as John McAllister.
    Methinks that Mr Elliot has indeed some interesting times times ahead with this duo.

  • Wasted Ballot

    not overly impressed with the list. Do we know when the other parties will have their list published?

  • IJP

    plainly speaking

    Fair cop, you’re on to my plan! 🙂

    I gather I must stop saying “Derry” though…

  • Seamus Clarke

    Due to the boundary changes in North Belfast, Cobain will find it difficult to retain his seat, we could be looking at an Alliance MLA in the north of the city.

  • Framer

    In toto, they are no more or less impressive than other parties especially now the DUP has shipped some of its stars to Westminster. Remember the average Birmingham councillor represents more people and who knows or could rate any of them?
    Tom Elliott’s job is to steady the ship as there will be no success before the DUP starts losing it. Policies are not pertinent to Stormont only mood.

  • Drumlins Rock

    I would doubt even that FJH, Naomi had a large personal vote.

  • drumcairnharp

    Horror Shock!!!!! The golden girl of the UUP(in her own mind),Sandra Overend, has been selected for Mid Ulster.So much for the party picking their candidates on merit. This one was picked simply because she is a woman.
    Posted a few weeks ago here that no man was allowed to apply for Mid Ulster and now have been proven right.The UUP need not complain about dynasties again.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Framer, that is about the most logical comment I have read on here for a long time.

  • Drumlins Rock

    drumcairn, this is starting to seem like a personal grudge of yours, as it is the only topic you ever post on.
    From your name I’m guessing your a neighbour of Billys? dont know what you fell out over but plastering it over the net does no-one any good.

  • drumcairnharp

    Drumlins Rock
    I have no problem with Billy but have a problem with creating dynasties.

  • charm offensive

    Parsley’s programme of political rehabilitation and disassociation from “The Nasty Party” are now at an advanced stage.

  • Strange choice in East Londonderry. Two candidates from the east of the constituency may allow the DUP to increase their grip on Limavady and its surrounding areas.

  • The Raven

    Sure does it matter? If the Westminster elections are anything to go by, less than half the constituency will turn out…

  • Progressive Unionist

    Many decent, impressive candidates in this list.

    Danny Kinahan, Fred Cobain, Mark Finlay, Tim Lemon, Mike Nesbitt, John McCallister, Basil McCrea, Jo-Anne Dobson… and the highly impressive young community worker Kenny Donaldson in FST…

    Fair play to Mark Cosgrove and his colleagues who’ve worked over the last few years to overhaul the UUP’s nomination process to make it more democratic – the UUP has clearly got plenty of up-and-coming talent, it just needs it’s leadership to give it the kind of forward-looking political direction that can win over Middle Ulster.

    If only the UUP can stop trying to out-TUV the TUV and appeal squarely to the non-sectarian middle ground I think it will surprise many people who’ve written it’s political obituary prematurely.

  • Progressive Unionist

    (Plus, UB excepted, the UUP have moved away from the 2007 lunacy of running 3 candidates where it’d be lucky to hold two….)

  • Barry the Blender

    From what I can make out:

    UUP targets:
    1 West Tyrone
    2. Strangford 2nd seat
    3. South Antrim 2nd Seat
    4. Lagan Valley 2nd seat
    5. East Belfast* 2nd seat

    *(Either here or east Londonderry. I chose EB because they were closer to 2 quotas in the general election past, and because of the McClarty fiasco. In any case, each seem equally unlikely)

    UUP defence:
    1. South Down
    2. North Down 2nd seat
    3. North Belfast
    4. East Antrim 2nd seat
    5. Upper Bann 2nd seat**

    **Perhaps over nomination makes this more vulnerable that it would first seem on paper

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    They keep saying that but its a very long shot.
    Ex tax inspector Billy Webb of Alliance actually lost his deposit in May.
    Not a promising start to winning a seat there next time.

  • Barry the Blender

    Decided who you’ll be standing for next year yet?

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Mike Nesbitt????? but he might be the next leader.
    Donaldson is from South Armagh so he has no hope in FST ……the irony is that Elliotts strength is west of Bann but all the talent is east of the Bann.
    Id expect UUP to drop a few seats possibly losing an Executive seat which would be a disaster. Elliott will be leading an Assembly Party not representative of the wider Party.

  • Barry the Blender

    fitzjameshorse beat me to it. Nicholas Whyte’s ark site does say there’s a chance, and I’ll not deny that there is, but as far as I can tell it relies on them mopping up leftover nationalist votes after their 3 candidates get in, waiting for Fred to be eliminated and taking all his votes when they transfer. The UUP are under pressure here, but it’s to the DUP (should they run 3), not the Alliance.

  • USA

    LOL

  • Drumlins Rock

    FJH, Donaldson has been working in the Fermanagh community for the last 4 yrs, he is engaged to a local girl and I believe will move there next year so I don’t see it being an issue this time.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Barry can I add a second seat in Fermanagh & South Tyrone to your first list?

  • slug

    Kenny Donaldson is very good.

  • slug

    Who is Bill Kennedy?

  • Michael Shilliday

    I would say that a second seat in Lagan Valley is more likley than in South Antrim, for a variety of reasons.

    Also I think that John McCallister is pretty safe. The second seat in North Down is probably out of reach, North Belfast would be a shock to hold on it in my opinion.

  • HoHo

    Ex- DUP. Lost out to Mervyn Story in 2003 selection for Assembly. ran as Independent in 2005 and hekld council seat. Signed ian Og’s papers for Westminster and then crossed to UUP sometime before AGM as he’s currently Ballymoney mayor AFAIK.
    With reference to Shilliday- McAllister? Safe? With boundary changes in South Down unionism will hold one seat, but a second is doubtful and to be honest, Jim wells will probably sneak in ahead of John McA. Which is a pity.

  • Michael Shilliday

    1) I think there are just enough votes out there for both McCallister and Wells to get home.
    2) I think that John will be ahead of Jim Wells. The Westminster election shows UUP just short of DUP, tactical voting to the SDLP will have mostly come from the UUP, so it’s not a massive leap to say that we are already ahead in South Down.

    You might be right, but I’m confident that John will hold on ok.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Hence making him deputy is an attempt to boost his profile ahead of the election and not just a consolation prize to the McCrea camp, in Westminster wells was only about 500 ahead, and there were 1500 TUV votes to redistribute, so it looks like they will get to decide who gets it in this case! As for the “vote lending” to Margaret, I doubt it is much more than a few hundred votes.
    Funny thing I noticed though, Wells is very “green” so you would expect he would pick up votes there… but when eliminated only 52 out of the 2043 Green votes came to him!

  • Michael Shilliday

    In 2005 one third of the UUP council vote went to the SDLP at Westminster. You’re talking at LEAST a thousand votes, probably more.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Drumlins Rock,
    Youve mentioned Kenny Donaldsons FST credentials before but at this point in time they are not “deep”.
    While he might well have been selected on the basis of being “one for the future”, the future is not in his case 2011.
    The most likely outcome in the constituency is three unionist seats and I suggest most likely to break down 2:1 for DUP.
    Of course this presumes that Morrow stands again in the South Tyrone end of the constituency.
    Donaldson exists purely to shore up Elliott……at this point in their careers.

  • Valenciano

    Overall I think holding 18 seats will be a tall order. A gain in West Tyrone looks sure but so too do losses in North Belfast, South Down and North Down. A possible gain in Strangford is counterbalanced by a possible loss in Upper Bann. East Derry looks okay on the figures but it’s one where local knowledge will come into play.

    Surprised too that they’re running two candidates in North Antrim when the existing seat there looks far from certain. They should hold it but they’re at the stage there where they’re under quota and will have to rely on Alliance transfers and the odd stray SDLP transfer (most of the latter’s votes will go non transferable.)

  • Anon

    It speaks volumes about Tom Elliott’s leadership that various UUP commentators on here are saying holding what the UUP have (on an abysmal performance in 2007) represents any sort of a victory. I don’t know if people are deliberately talking down their chances for spinning purposes or not.

  • john greene

    Wont it be slightly peculiar for those candidates who stood as Conservatives and Unionists to now be standing against the Conservatives?
    Did they all collectively make a mistake? Why have they turned against the idea of being part of UK politics?
    Do they support the Conservative government at Westminster – which is largely enacting the policies they stood on or not?
    How many of them will be happy with a deal with the DUP?

  • Barry the Blender

    No Michael you’re not allowed to say that Lagan Valley is more likely. I know you think the world begins and ends in Lisburn, but in South Antrim the UCUNF got its higest votes share (some 30 or so per cent) – in excess of 2 quotas. In Lagan valley they’re sitting on 21 odd per cent and as far as I can tell the last seat is a toss up between TUV, 4th DUP and 2nd UUP. Just who is going to do it is anyone’s guess, and there are a range of other factors there such as Donaldson’s departure. But my list is quantaiive, not qualitative.

  • Barry the Blender

    A 2nd seat in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. I think not

  • Barry the Blender

    As far as I can tell the UUP have never contested the fictitious constituency of East Derry

  • Barry the Blender

    Indeed. Elliott can take, and probably defeat Foster in the Fermanagh end of the seat, but South Tyrone is there for the taking for Lord Morrow.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    The issue of how nany Assembly seats is actually secondary to how many Executive seats they get.
    Two? One?

  • Barry the Blender

    I’m not willing to come out and say there will be two unionists elected in South Down, it remains a possibility that there is mass tactical voting however, which will revert to unionists in election time.

    Which unionists are more likely to vote tactically? I’m not convinced that DUP voters wouldn’t, they seem happy enough to vote for Durkan in Derry, and Ruane is probably even more contentious than the blond bomber as a bogeyman

    Also tuv had a credible performance here, their transfers could go the way of Jim Allisters and split roughly 60:40 UUP:DUP closing the gap somewhat further. And then there’s the UKIP councillor Henry Reilly who’s got a sizeable personal vote and is likely to stand. .

  • South Down Stoop

    There’s a good chance both unionists’ll hold their seats, as the third SDLP candidate is Eamonn O’Neill, who’ll be fighting Wilie Clarke or first preference votes. Whoever loses their seat(if anyone does), it’ll be tight, but I’d guess it’ll be SDLP 3 Sinn Fein 1(Ruane), and DUP and UUP one apiece. McCalister is well liked by most of the non Sinn Fein electorate, he’ll get a substantial amount of SDLP transfers.

  • Barry the Blender

    South Down Stoop, is that the same Eamon O’Neill who Margret Ritchie took out when she first stood. And there’s another thing you can help me with, is PJ Bradley going to stand again, and does he actually have a first name?

  • Barry the Blender

    I was working out how I expect the assembly to look. I see no change in the final number of exec seats, but maybe a difference in the order of allocation. (Namely if the DUP have less than double the UUP number of seats then the UUP will get fourth pick). If the exec is 11 seats I also see the alliance getting the final seat on D’Hont. I’m curious to know what happens P&J however.

  • Drumlins Rock

    only takes a swing of 1000 votes 🙂

  • Barry the Blender

    Then I expect you’re equally upset with Mid Ulster’s other Unionist MLA Ian McCrea, and a vast range of Northern ireland ‘politicians’ including Paul Maskey, Diane Dodds, Ian Paisley Jnr, Roy Beggs Jnr, David Long and Cllr Mark Durkan (the MP’s nephew). I look forward to your extensive posts criticising these individuals.

  • Barry the Blender

    But just how likely is that?

  • Drumlins Rock

    its possible, unfortunately we don’t have a Westminster vote to gage against, but on the ground the tide has turned back a bit, it will depend on who the DUP stand (although Lord Empey may have neutralised the “triple jobbing” attack on Morrow) and on whether the TUV stand. In reality what is need in alot of hard work on the ground to get Kenny known over the next few months.

  • IJP

    In principle, there is no reason former UCUNF candidates shouldn’t stand against as UUP against the Conservatives (you could equally argue that Conservatives shouldn’t stand against the UUP, as some senior Conservatives still do). The Assembly Election is about a different set of issues – health, education, transport etc – and thus there is no reason two people shouldn’t disagree on those while at the same time agreeing on welfare, taxation and European policy. Of course, the nub of that problem is there is no reason somebody shouldn’t agree with the Conservatives on the latter while actually agreeing with Alliance on the former…

    However, you do raise a valid point about the values which lie behind the project. The values which lay behind the UCUNF project were supposed to be about mainstream, non-sectarian politics. Many of those who stood as first-time Westminster candidates did so on the basis that that was what it was about. Yet those values were breached time after time – (unwittingly perhaps) by the now Secretary of State at Hatfield, by the now UUP Leader in Fermanagh; by the failure of the still UUP Chair and cohorts to get candidates selected on time.

    Thus, there is a legitimate values question to be asked. If the likes of Nesbitt, Macaulay or Manwaring were attracted by the UCUNF values, how can they now stand under a UUP led by people so prominent in breaching them (both in principle and in practice), and among a membership which backed that leadership during the selection process itself (a process which has already seen widely reported attempts to add to or remove two of those three in their respective constituencies for a start!).

    Because I know those people well enough to know they DO stand for UCUNF values, I hope they get elected. But my own experience of those involved means I feel they are seeking election under the wrong banner – a banner under which they will never really be able to advance their cause.

  • Joanne

    I think its pretty obvious Ian. They seek political office, feel they will be unlikely to get elected as Tories, used UCUNF to get some valuable profile points and made a choice as to the best way to achieve that personal gain. Will Tom,Dave ‘n’ Mark be faced with defections post poll? Hmmm. Hadn’t thought of that…

  • slug

    Paries are coalitions in themselves – n’est ce pas?

  • bob wilson

    ‘as some senior Conservatives still do’ Who? Do you mean the laughable Laurance Robertson? He’s hardly senior

  • Valenciano

    By which logic they’ve never contested North Belfast either…

  • Barry the Blender

    In reality what is need in alot of hard work on the ground to get Kenny known over the next few months.

    And therein lies your problem

  • Barry the Blender

    Are you seriously going back down the “everyone’s sectarian but me” path Ian?

  • Barry the Blender

    I can live with calling it Belfast North if you can use the name “East Londonderry”

  • Laughing (Tory) Unionist

    Ah Bawb, so one of Ulster’s few genuine Tory friends in the Commons is slagged off by a gurning local Tory like you. If Robertson’s junior & laughable it’s probably a good thing that an over-abudance self-knowledge isn’t one of your flaws.

    Meanwhile, will someone not save Shillers from himself? Not once in 800 years of suffering has he *ever* predicted anything right on Slugger. Is there perhaps something really rather weird happening here – bin bags, oranges, that sort of thing? As I can see no other reason why anyone would get such a kick out of so persisently humiliating themselves. Different strokes I s’pose, but I have to admit, I’m squeamish and would prefer him not to do it in public.

  • Michael Shilliday

    What predictions did I make? Lets have a look:

    1)The average UUP MLA will be of better quality in 2011
    2) John McCallister will hold on
    3) Ross Hussey will win a seat
    4) Fred Cobain may not

    So, where’s the disaster?

  • PaddyReilly

    The is nothing inconsistent about losing your deposit in a Westminster election (i.e. getting marginally less than 5%) and winning a seat in a Stormont one.

    Westminster elections produce only one winner— they are weighted in favour of large parties— so small parties are deserted by their followers voting tactically.

    Stormont elections are weighted in favour of the small parties. Webb only needs to gain another 500 first preference votes and he will be elected by the transfers. This is the advantage of being a middle of the road party: the TUV and Sinn Féin would not manage to pull this feat off.

    Equally the UCUNF alliance managed to win a spectacular 0 seats in May, but this does not mean that I or any reasonable psephologist expect this result to be repeated in Stormont. On the contrary, if they do not remain as 3rd largest part, they will only move down slightly to 4th largest. The number of seats might alter slightly, but one does not expect a landslide in either direction.

  • Drumlins Rock

    can you give us an example of this happening Paddy?

  • Drumlins Rock

    anon, he has been leader for less than 2 months, try a bit of reality.

  • Drumlins Rock

    dont think Fred’s is as risky as some say, the DUP will have lost their big hitter which should help his vote, and probably the UCUNF played worse there than anywhere, tactical voting certainly cut his westminster vote.

  • PaddyReilly

    Yes. Alliance got 5.4% of the vote in South Belfast in the 2001 Westminster Election, 6.3% in the 2005 Westminster Election and won a Stormont seat in the 2007.

    Naomi Long got 9% of the (1st pref) vote in the 2003 Assembly Election for East Belfast and won a seat on transfers.

  • Anon

    He has been the leader for more than 2 months, not that you would know it, having completely disappeared without trace since he was elevated to that position as part of the “stop Basil” campaign. It seems as though he’s being hidden away by the UUP for fear of embarrassment in media performances.

  • slug

    Drumlin Rock – I’d have thought tory would play quite well in a lot of North Belfast? Any time Im diverted off the M2 and down the antrim the houses look very nice. And such a fantastic view.

  • Drumlins Rock

    I shall call it the challenge!

  • Drumlins Rock

    noticed them too Slug, but I’m guessing there are alot more working class streets further down the road.

  • Harry The Unionist

    There’s some tosh on this thread, the usual over-inflated predictions and the usual prophets of doom. Taking a fair look at the candidates list, the UUP have some decent runners infact I would say potentially they have some very good and able candidates and they have others who shouldn’t be in the running for the mad house on the hill.

    I do think the UUP will gain momentum this time around particularly in the South and West of the Country. Ross Hussey will win a seat and don’t chuckle too hard at this but if the part were to run a second candidate in Newry and Armagh, with the likelihood of the TUV also contesting, I believe Irwin is vulnerable and can be taken out.

    As for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, the Party would in all likelihood benefit from a bounce given that the Party’s leader comes from that constituency. And as a follower of the local scene don’t discount young Donaldson. He has a good work ethic, despite not being well known he put in a very good performance on his first run out 4 years ago and don’t forget the UUP was being cream crackered across the Country. If the Party invests in him and a couple of others, you just never know. And so what where he comes from, he’s from a borderland, as far as I’m aware he works in Fermanagh somewhere within the victims scene so he may well pull 1 or 2 votes away from his running mate. Morrow is weary and is beatable but only time will tell.

    The fact that the UUP still has a few good younger candidates around says something surely. They didn’t tuck taila nd run to the DUPE’s nor to the non-Unionists that are The yellow bellied Alliance Party!

    Other candidate to look out for is Colin McCusker. he is a very bright hope for the future and let’s face it, he’s the offspring of 1 of the most gifted Unionist politicians ever to have adorned Northern ireland’s political scene. I speak of course fo the late Harold McCusker.

  • IJP

    I suspect John McCallister will hold on, yes. And thoroughly deservedly so. The UUP’s opponents would be making a mistake to downplay its prospects too much – otherwise the 15-16 seats it is likely to win will be seen as a triumph. Expectations management is key.

    (Sorry Bob, but LTU is spot on there; also there’s the small matter of the Special Adviser to the Secretary of State who has, at the very least, failed to explain his dramatic U-turn from the emails he was sending me up until very recently which I still have in my possession.)

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    The question of “age” is not as important as “ability”.
    There are some awful potential candidates under say 35 …..young duffers so getting carried away with the cult of youth is counter productive.
    I know many on the Internet like to think that voting should be limited to people under 50 but there is a grey vote out there and it would be a mistake to think that in their own way they are not thoroughly modern.
    A lot of oldies have had to re-think their certainties in the light of family circumstances…….pregnancies outside marriage, sons or daughters introducing their “partners” and not necessarily heterosexual.
    It is as likely to happen in Enniskillen than Bangor.
    And it would be a mistake if the modernist element in the UUP thought that their party members west of the Bann are on a different level of social evolution than their own cosmopolitan tendencies.
    A lot WILL depend on not just the number of UUP people returned but on the quality …..and it seems variable (and of course I dont know more than a few in my immediate and near-immediate locality.
    But if the UUP only get 15 seats…it will necessarily mean that they are unrepresented in three (WB, Foyle & WT at the moment but WT likely to be a gain……which means another loss somewhere else). At best it seems that UUP can get say 20 seats.
    So they are heading for anywhere between 15 and 20.
    And the peculiarities of proportional representation means that one or two will get “lucky” and a couple will narrowly lose out.
    But once again as on “Alliance” threads, the motivations of those not actually members of the UUP (and assuredly I have no agenda myself) is interesting.

  • Anon

    Steadying the ship? Was that not Reg’s job? Waiting around for your opponents to mess things up is never a feasible strategy and the longer the UUP relies on it, the more the DUP will drive in to the centre-ground and leave the UUP with no purpose at all.

  • Bob wilson

    still waiting for the names of these senior Tories

  • Bob wilson

    Apparently the Pope has realised that he might have got in wrong on condoms and has changed his position!

  • Kirsty

    Looking at the list, I dont think they will win a 2nd seat in East Belfast, with the candidate they are running. Sir Reg and Mr Lemon not a good mix.

  • Bob Williamson

    So if the smart money is on the UUP to lose 2 or 3 seats (to hold 15 or 16 total) then unless the DUP can compensate by winning the same number, then Unionism loses out. Thanks very much Tom. Surely this is a prime example of why the parties should have sat down and worked out numbers of candidates together