Is Cowan on his way to see McAleese?

Rumours over on Politics.ie and TV3 are speculating that the following a meeting of the Irish Cabinet underway at present, Brian Cowan will make his way to the Aras and ask the President to dissolve the Dáil, this is just speculation at the minute but we shall wait and see…

  • joan

    how can one dissolve a Dial? you can move it up or move it down or even twirl it around but dissolve it?….i think not.

  • DC

    The day George Osborne lends you money is the day Ireland should default – British banks have been up to their necks in it as well. This is England’s difficulty, clearly. But the thing is – it will act as a reset button, rather than debt mountain for taxpayers to pay off ad infinitum.

    Time to default.

    Borrow dollars off China at better rates and let Anglo-European banks wither on the vine off the bust that comes after the private market boom.

    Unless Merkel can provide the haircut?

  • Greenflag

    ‘Borrow dollars off China at better rates ‘

    I suggested that option a week back I think . But I guess our politicians have put their faith in the ‘Mother of the Nation’ which is the German moniker for the former Ossie (East German) . Butter would’nt melt in her mouth as former Kanzler Kohl and many of her rivals have said shortly before being skewered of their political futures .

  • DC

    Finton O’Toole reckons IMF cuts can’t be digested.

  • John Ó Néill

    Key phrase is that Cowen will “…seek the dissolution of the Dáil after provisions of the forthcoming budget are enacted.” (I’m quoting the Irish Times here, which is pretty much what was said).
    That is pretty ambiguous and could mean any time until March, depending upon the number of legislative provisions and amendments required. The real question is who will be supporting the government that brings in this budget? The loss of independents and backbenchers freaking out mean that FF will need an electoral bailout as well to get a budget through.
    In that context, it will be interesting to see if anyone admits to behind the scenes talks between FF and FG – I still suspect that neither Cowen nor Kenny can lead their party into the election (Cowen for his disasterous performance last week, Kenny because FG know, at heart, that he is just not electable). It is possible, and the numbers suggest that the only way the budget will pass will be with some form of FF/FG coalition or FF minority government with very conditional FG support. I’m guessing a Lenihan/Noonan ticket is on the way and, if they agree a modus vivendi, there will be no election until 2012.

  • Alias

    The President can only refuse to dissolve the Dail if the government lose a no confidence vote, so not passing the budget would be one way toward a grand coalition sans an election with the President requesting the parties to see if they can form a government between them.

    However, there is no reason for FG to prop up FF as FG may even get enough seats out of an election to form a government without Labour. Enda is not as unelectable as popular comment or polls suggest. The only reason FG would prop up FF is to prop up the eurosystem by making sure the terms are legally irrevocable but while there are rabid europhiles in GF, Enda is more of the typical euromuppet so that wouldn’t be his plan.

  • I think that when FG have completed their political calculation, they will conclude that there is no better time like the present. Historically, a Government is more likely to lose an election heavily if it has no control over the timing of a general election

    Precedent: March 1979 when the UK Labour Government lost a motion of no confidence. This led to Margaret Thatcher’s first election victory.

  • Greenflag

    A winter of discontent also helps . We (ROI) have had a couple of winters, springs, summers and autumn’s of discontent but we have no Taoiseach in waiting . Enda Kenny should be ahead by several Irish miles but he isn’t . Labour are stealing FG’s thunder or seem to be and it may be that SF may take some of the polish of the expected Labour advance . For the political anoraks the upcoming ROI election could be mould breaking on a scale that has’nt been experienced in elections to date . By contrast the NI Assembly election result may be less exciting than would have been forecast even a few weeks ago .

  • Reader

    DC: The day George Osborne lends you money is the day Ireland should default
    When the lorry load of Fivers lands at Dublin docks?
    I don’t think it works quite like that!

  • Sean Og

    What odds on a technocratic government along the lines of Hungary or Czech Republic?

  • pippakin

    We should default and borrow elsewhere, anywhere else. How could it be worse. The EU are complicit in this. In any court they would be accomplices before the fact.

    How many of the banks involved are actually British? The Brits have said they will lend but not as part of the EU, would the offer still be there if we were able to borrow elsewhere?

    Are we clutching at straws???

  • Mack

    Links ?

  • pippakin

    Mack

    I was asking not telling. Are the Chinese an option? Will the Brits still lend to us if we do not borrow from the EU? Exactly how bad will it be if we default? Has every option been looked at or has the government just run to the EU and obeyed them?

  • DC

    The least that should be done if agreeing this budget is basic statutory pension for this government to lift on its way out the door, it’s an absolute minimum. Failing that democracy will be made to look inadequate and the right will prosper.

  • Mack

    Was a question for DR, Pippakin. Couldn’t find the thread on P.ie