Last Sunday’s Red C poll…

Okay, belatedly. And on a prompt from anonymous on Mark’s thread from last night, here’s a great trend chart last Sunday’s Red C poll in the Sunday Business Post. Two things to note. One, is the consistent fading of Fine Gael over the last three polls. The series of changes is statistically significant, even if each one is not.

And secondly, Sinn Fein appear to have recovered much of their suddenly lost ground last month. So I would treat that as an outlier. From Richard Colwell’s analysis quoted by Pete last time out:

It is difficult to explain this loss without more information, but perhaps it is because the party has been seen canvassing heavily in the election in the North and taken its eye off the ball in the Republic. Alternatively, Sinn Féin may well have suffered in the eyes of voters due to renewed activity by dissident republicans in the North.

Or maybe, it was just a statistical error…

  • Jean Meslier

    “..Or maybe, it was just a statistical error…”

    Oh those mischievous Staters

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    For a party like SF with distinct geogrpahical pockets of support (and non support) their electoral strength is presumably the most difficult to capture accurately.

    FF must be allowing themselves a little sigh of relief and FG should soon be wondering again if they need a new leader.

  • Anonymous

    Is this the only poll that runs in the Republic? If not, it’d be nice to amalgamatet he trends.

  • Tochais Síoraí

    FG would add 10 points to that if they showed Inda the door.

  • Jean Meslier

    “..For a party like SF with distinct geogrpahical pockets of support (and non support) their electoral strength is presumably the most difficult to capture accurately…”

    Greens
    Independents
    PD
    SP

    Hello?

  • The difficulty lies in the nature of reporting polls. Given the error margins, the actual result of that poll (at 95% confidence intervals) is: FG (27-33%), FF (21-27%), Lab (19-25%), SF (7-13%), Greens (2-8%), Ind/Others (6-12%).
    That’s what a +/-3% standard deviation on those figures looks like.
    But who would bother publishing polls if they had to point out that they are that vague. Presumably (with a -4%, +4% swing that SF could well have been down 1% and then recovered, but it was amplified by the margin of error). Over a long period of time SF support seems to be living at around the 9%-10% mark (or 6-13% if you want to be accurate).
    The real trends to watch are the FG-Lab ones – since support seems to be dripping from FG to Lab, given Labour have already proposed a solo run, it will be interesting to see if FF try and exploit this and let them fight each other instead of FF.

  • Mick Fealty

    Search on Guth an Phobail, they should have them all…

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Jean,

    Hello to you too.

    In my original draft of the post I was going to say of the ‘main’ political parties – but I thougt there might be some quibbling so I took it out.

    But leaving that aside, independents are obviously a case apart and parties whose main support is in Dublin – certainly the Greens and possibly the PDs and SP are probably better catered for than those like SF who are stronger in more ‘remote’ locations – like the border areas.

  • Cynic

    2 x 0 = 0

  • The FG fading isn’t over three polls, it’s just two so far. They actually went up three polls ago. It’s not a trend yet, though it does indicate it’s likely to enter one. Still, I don’t think it’s possible to extrapolate a trend for it as yet.

    More interesting to me is the increase in independent vote. I’m sure if it that can be put down to ex-FF ‘independents’ though. Also the Labour jump seems to be something of a once-off.

    The apparently interlink of FG and L vote is kinda interesting too. The big jump there for L a few polls back coincided with a steep enough fall in FG… voters not yet seeing the two are partners? Skipping between?

    Anyway, this is all just talking shop, nothing actually useful will come from poll analysing.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Belatedly and prompted.
    And to be honest 7% is nothing to write home about. Spread about the right constituencies it might be important, even in the Dublin Lord Mayor election where say 10% might be an interesting platform.
    But had SF got a 3% increase in a Belfast Telegraph poll?….
    Or a 3% drop……..?

  • Note that the SF trough last month coincides neatly with a similar spike in Labour. If we correct for that, it does look like FG is losing votes to Labour, but it is similar to what happened in Feb last year. I’ll see what happens next month before making a fuss about it.

    Meanwhile, FF support appears to have bottomed out in the low 20s. Does this indicate the yellow-dog core vote?

    But I think the most interesting thing about this graph is how Labour managed to almost double their baseline support in the space of six months, propelling them from also-rans to serious contenders.