Don’t speak too soon – Foster & McNarry

Ulick noted a link to the biggest laugh of the election. Bairbe de Brún rides out some misplaced Unionist triumphalism and hours later joined the crowd cheering Gildernew’s victory. Arlene may have punched the air, should have saved it for a wall.

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  • Alias

    “Currently BBC iPlayer TV programmes are available to play in the UK only”

    Any chance that partitionist bloggers would consider those of us not in the UK when posting links? 😉

  • Mark McGregor

    Some one has to record this. McNarry/DUP/Foster all looking like fools – tis a keeper. Especially Arlene’s gloat.

    Slap it right up ye.

  • Procrasnow

    talk about laughs – does the BBC know something new – http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/liveevent/

    DUP leader Ian Paisley Jnr it reports

    0757: The DUP in Northern Ireland is among the smaller parties hoping to have a role in the hung parliament. Its leader Ian Paisley Junior told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that he had “guiding principles” to bring to the negotiating table.

    God Help Us

  • johnno

    Nice to see Barbara putting that non-entity McGlone in his place.

    What was the point of Alban Maginnes running in North Belfast? His vote has been collapsing at a spectacular rate every election.

    He was there, of course, to stop Gerry Kelly. The stoops would rather have the hideous Dodds getting in than a Shinner. What a dsigusting bunch they are.

    North Belfast is Kelly’s and there’s nothing the stoops can do about it. Alban Maginnes will have his Fergal McKinney moment next time. Happy days.

  • johnno

    McGarry’s face…his mouth looks more and more like a cat’s arse every time I see him.

    The funniest part of this is that whilst they were talking the wretch Arelen Foster was racing down the M1 hoping to celebrate with Connor in Omagh.

    Christ, I’d ave loved to see her Joe Pasquali mug contort whenever she arrived to hear that it was swinging back to the Shinner.

    Karma’s a wonderful thing, ain’t it?

  • Wasted Ballot

    I’d rather have an MP that does his job than one who would bleed allowances from us and do bugger all else.

  • ‘Dont speak too soon’ is the title of the piece, and it refers of course to the somewhat premature ejaculations of the over stressed and over confident…

    We had a great election and are entitled to our glee, but at the back of my mind is a niggling little concern that we too may be ejaculating too soon. Chances are there will be another election within a year. So we would do well to heed the old saying: He who laughs last laughs loudest.

    We picked up votes from people who may change their minds next time. It is in our interest to resist the urge to gloat.

  • Outsider

    I feel they had a right to cheer, it was only vote rigging that resulted in Sinn Fein taking the seat.

  • johnno

    Pippa, FST is a SF seat and is going to stay that way. If they couldn’t unseat Michelle this time with their unity candidate and the SDLP sad-sack then they never will.

    Personally, I would love another election within a year. It would ensure the removal of Alaistar McDonnell – effectively replacing one unionist with another! The unionists would put up a unity candiate and, because of disgraceful post victory attitude, he’d lose every single SF vote he got this time (and probably quite a few less stoopish-sdlp votes too). North belfast Belfast would go to Gerry Kelly also.

    So, another quick election? Happy days.

  • Oh if we all had your confidence! I believe people vote as much on like as they do on dislike. Sectarianism is not dead yet. It appears to be in intensive care, with, hopefully, no chance of recovery. But my instinct is its too soon to be completely comfortable.

    There will have been ‘borderline people’ who, for example, voted for Michelle Gildernew because they like what she has done for her constituents, those people may not like having their previous choices ridiculed and they may not have much opportunity to see such ridicule as no fault of hers.

    Thats it really. No objection to the feel good factor, how could I I feel pretty good myself! I just dont want to lose it too soon! and a four vote margin is way outside my comfort zone.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Personally, I would love another election within a year. It would ensure the removal of Alaistar McDonnell – effectively replacing one unionist with another! The unionists would put up a unity candiate and, because of disgraceful post victory attitude, he’d lose every single SF vote he got this time (and probably quite a few less stoopish-sdlp votes too). North belfast Belfast would go to Gerry Kelly also.

    I am not psephologist so I am happy to be corrected here, but
    the numbers in S Belfast don’t seem to match up with what you’re saying. How do you explain the overall drop in the Unionist vote and the fact that McDonnell’s vote increased by 4000, much more than Maskey’s vote (~2000) last time ? One might argue that Alliance supporters tactically voted SDLP – but they clearly didn’t, as Anna Lo’s share of the vote also went up quite significantly. And this was all on a slightly lower turnout.

    I’d say McDonnell must have somehow benefited from demographic/boundary changes, and that a very small proportion of Maskey voters supported him. I believe he probably would have won even if Maskey had run. I have some confidence here because Alliance actually canvassed the Markets and (I found this hard to believe) we had several people say to us that they couldn’t stand McDonnell and that they would support Anna. Of course, people seldom tell you the truth on the doors with these things, so it would take an examination of the box tallies to see whether this was true or not.

    Incidentally, another election now would probably not go well for unionists. Both parties are likely to be in the process of changing their leader. I can’t see the Tory party wanting to continue their UCUNF investment which means that the UUP is not equipped, financially or emotionally, to fight another election in the near future. I’d suggest that FST would stay with Gildernew, and that S Belfast would stay with McDonnell.

  • Kelly just lost North Belfast. What would magically change so that he would win it within a year?

    Going by the number of unionist voters in South Belfast, a unionist unity candidate would defeat McDonnell regarldess of whether Maskey stood or not, and whether McDonnell got his votes or not.

    So what exactly are the basis of your claims?

  • The longer we have to promote our cause the more people will see the benefits, already we are seeing people forgetting the old sectarian alliances and voting for the candidate rather than his ‘tribe’. Time will show there is nothing to fear and that will bring more voters to our side. I hope we have reached the stage where our arguments can be fought at the ballot box. If we have, there is no such thing as a safe seat.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    CS,

    “and that a very small proportion of Maskey voters supported him. I believe he probably would have won even if Maskey had run”

    You sound almost as silly as the good doctor himself when he repeats his “my majority had nothing to with SF” line.

  • Mr Crumlin

    Whatever!!

    Yeeeoooohhhhh!

  • I noticed quite a lot of votes for McDonnell (about 1 in 10) at the polling booths where everyone else was voting Spratt or Bradshaw, when I was tallying on Thursday night. So it looks like McDonnell has built up a personal vote as an effective constituency MP even in the loyalist heartlands.

  • Sorry Pippikan. Thay was addressed to Johnno rather than yourself

  • No problem. I did wonder but I consider it bad form not to reply, so I thought I better had!

  • johnno

    Dave,

    There’s nothing unusual about Stoops getting loyalist votes. Hendron relied on loyalist votes from the Shankill in the middle of a UFF/UVF sectarian murder campaign to beat Gerry Adams a long time ago. Alex Attwood has never recovered from it. He looked like a complete sad sack the other day. The Stoops are are at a total dead end. This is it for them. There is nowhere for the Stoops to expand into. Nowhere. Tell me, where can the Stoops possibly get another seat? Name one constituency where they might have a chance. There isn’t one. The Shinners on the other hand will take North Belfast and then Upper Bann.

    Indeed, If the unionists get their act together McDonnell will lose South Belfast.

    I will certainly vote for a DUP/UUP candidate in South Belfast to unseat McDonnell. It makes no difference to me. As a republican, McDonnell’s just another unionist to me anyway. It would be worth a vote for a Prod to see McDonnell dumped on his huge ass. I’m sure most of Maskey’s supporters will do the same – especially given the way McDonnell has behaved in the last couple of days.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Sammy, Maskey got 2000 votes last time. McDonnell increased his vote by 4000 – on a reduced turnout. Furthermore, McDonnell was about 6000 votes ahead of his nearest rival.

    I’ll not hold my breath waiting for you to explain how Maskey’s 2000 votes would have reversed McDonnell’s 6000 vote majority.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    CS,

    You claimed that “a very small proportion of Maskey voters supported him” – to put it gently that seems a little counter intutitive.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Sammy, that’s based on the numbers and the evidence from the Alliance canvass. I won’t try to pretend that is definitive, but it’s better than what you’ve got, namely nothing.

    I repeat – McDonnell would still have won even if Maskey had not stepped aside. That’s a simple mathematical truth that you cannot gainsay.

  • johnno

    CS, you’re right about Maskey’s votes this time. But McDonnell is still vulnerable to a unified unionist candidate. He’s number one on the UUP’s target list.

    My point is that Gerry Kelly will probably take N. Belfast even if Alban Maginnes stands again. Just as the stupidity of McKinney’s actions in FST became increasingly obvious in FST as election day approached, the rapidly collapsing vote for Maginnes will make a vote for him the dumb option. This was Alban’s last kick at the Shinners – and he’s probably done the SDLP massive harm in terms of Assembly and council votes in the future.

    SF voters will not rush to help McDonnell if he faces a single unionist – especially given McDonnell’s repellant antics after he won. To the average republican, the fat doctor is just another brit, and they’ll enjoy watching him being dumped.

  • “He’s number one on the UUP’s target list.”

    [irony]I’m sure that is making him tremble in his boots.[/irony]

    If the UUP actually had a target list for last week’s election, there was precious little evidence of it in the results.