UK Exit Poll

For the record, the NOP/Mori exit poll for the broadcasters is predicting a hung parliament with the Conservatives short of a majority by only 19 seats. Update That would be 19 short without factoring in abstentionist MPs…

Conservatives – 307 (+97)

Labour – 255 (-94)

Lib Dem – 59 (-3)

Others – 29 (unchanged)

Adds It will be interesting to compare this with the actual result…

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  • alan56

    Labour cannot win….
    Tories can….
    Liberal D result a bit questionable….

  • Early days. Lib Dems have got to be annoyed, a salutory lesson in peaking too soon, perhaps? Still, the fag end of the count will be where this one matters. Could get litigious and drag on for a few days with some tight constituencies.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Milliband favourite to be PM on these results with the support of LibDems and sundry Nats.

  • And the DUP should be pleased if these numbers come to be true!

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    TonyB,

    DUP may be not required on these results if the Nats are up for it.

  • DK

    LIB-CON pact. Country will not accept labour any more.

  • O’Merta

    Labour/Lib Dem/ DUP – Robinson’s revenge.

  • won’t accept brown – maybe. I’m with ItWasSammyWilsonWhatDoneIt, Milliband for PM. (David, presumably 🙂

  • John East Belfast

    Lets see if Robinson will be there himself first

  • Betfair Seat Forecast (as at 10:15pm): 316 Conservatives, 226 Labour, 75 Lib Dems, 30 Other

  • Diluted Orange

    Just put money on the Tories getting over 317 seats. Nailed on surely. It’s always the same – exit polls always underestimate the size of the Tory vote because voters are embarassed to admit they voted for them.

    They might be just short of a majority – which will play into DUP hands very nicely. Cameron will choose the path of least resistance and that is the DUP when the only other offer on the table will be to the SNP or the Lib Dems.

    Just as an aside. I wonder what Gerry thinks of abstentionism now?

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    TonyB,

    I wonder if that has fallen back otherwise in the absence of ‘insider’ inofrmation they are betting against the latest/exit poll.

  • Tories up 5% in Sunderland, Labour down 10%. Bears out the opinion poll, give or take.

    As for Gerry and abstentionism, I’m not all that sure the Tories are ready to forgive Brighton, even at the price of government…there are still a few old ghosts wandering the halls of conservatism muttering…

    And re: the Betfair numbers, there’s not really insider info, and there seems to be a massive variety in swing…swing from Tory TO Labour in Scotland and Wales, upwards of 7% in England.

    This is far too tight. It will go to the wire. Diluted Orange, I hope you got good odds…what was the price?

  • cynic47

    Don’t write Labour off just yet. I forecast a tighter finish than the exit poll.

  • cynic47

    Reg didn’t look happy at the count.

  • Damian O’Loan

    The poll suggests Brown as PM is impossible, particularly given Clegg’s vow not to work with him as PM. That does not exclude a Lib-Lab government.

    The swing in the first result suggests a Tory majority however.

    What is interesting is, as Henry McDonald notes on the Guardian’s coverage, the DUP could become power-brokers. I find this highly unlikely, but it would certainly present the Tories with the least demanding negotiation. However, it ran a campaign based on Labour’s economic policy in the post-recession election. To U-turn now would show the superficiality of its claims of Britishness.

    Incidentally, the denial of a republican’s right to vote, because of the “unreasonable burden on the police”, is provocative and disgraceful. The failure of any party to address the causes behind the need for cuts reduces the entire exercise to something of a farce and while the increased interest sparked by the debates is welcome, something needs to be done about the fact that it creates a personality contest that bears little resemblance to democracy.

  • Betfair market 42% for a tory majority, 58% hung. 0% chance of a labour majority, by the way.

    Washington & Sunderland just coming in…safe labour again, big swing from labour to the tories, albeit from a low base (tories on 22% now versus 53% for labour)

    Turnout up 7% to 54%, but I’m curious to see what happens where turnout pushes to 65, 70% with a ten point jump. How will these people vote? I’m betting Lib Dem…

  • The Raven

    Templemore seems to be having a rough time. Will Gregory Campbell stop at nothing…?

  • First tight one coming in, Sunderland Central. Tory target number 178. 19,000 to 12,000 Labour to Tory. Not very tight in the end. Swing of 4.8%. Need many more seats in different places to get a better view.

  • Greenflag

    Disappointed for Lib Dems . Looks like there has been a reverting to Labour by disenchanted Labour voters who had turned to the LD – not enough to hold the present Labour total but enough to deny the Tories of a clear majority . A long night ahead .

  • lamhdearg

    Barry Mcaduff just quoted churchhill

  • Pete Baker

    Mis-quoted, lamhdearg.

  • Battle of the Bogside

    I don’t think Barry’s quote was accurate?

    Well done Pat Doherty.

    Tough luck Jim Allister, you should now go away and do us all a favour!!!

  • Battle of the Bogside

    Bye bye Robinson, enjoy your lonely retirement, your long due a reality check!!!

  • GavBelfast

    And Saturday night’s lottery numbers, John?

    😉

  • Henry94

    It looks like the only stable government possible will be a Tory/Lib-Dem coalition.

  • Michael Gillespie

    Nothing in the replies to my article in Slugger on culture changes my view that Britishness is bound up with political power and economic strength and is apart from culture. The poem Cargoes by John Masefield quoted by Mr Walker reinforces my stance on Britishness. There is a contrast of the cargoes (culture) in the poem. There are the sophisticated glamorous cargoes (cultures) of the Quinquireme of Nineveh and of the stately Spanish Galleon. These cargoes (culture) are contrasted with the Cargo (culture) of the dirty British coaster. Its cargo (culture) consists of articles of trade, items of commerce and economic goods. So Masefield’s view of British culture is much the same as mine. So Mr Walker in quoting this poem has shot himself in the foot.

    Mr Walker also noted that Britishness is bound up with war. So it is. Sticking with poetry as a true expression of culture, the English poet Rudyard Kipling wrote a poem for the Irish Guards in W.W.1.because his son fought with the Irish Guards and was killed in action. The poem is long but I’ll give an extract to show its quality

    “ Ah France did we stand by you.
    Then life was made splendid with gifts and rewards
    Ah France will we deny you
    IN the hour of your agony Mother of Swords
    Old days – the wild geese are flighting
    Head to the storm as they faced it before
    For where there’s Irish there’s loving and fighting
    And when we stop either – It’s Ireland no more
    Ireland no more.”

    And also

    After one hundred and seventy years of fighting
    We’re fighting for France again.

    While The Irish Guards are a regiment of the British army the word British isn’t used in the poem The Irish Guards aren’t fighting for Britain but for France and Ireland. The poem gives the Guards a strong robust Irish culture not a British culture whatever that is. This can be contrasted with The Ulster Volunteer Force in W.W.1 What poet or poetry expresses their orange culture. I don’t know of any. There is the play –Observe the Loyal Sons of Ulster Marching towards the Somme. This is an anti war play that highlights the emptiness of the Ulstermen’s mission their wrong headedness and their lack of education. It depicts their culture as a thin veneer of Irishness. But the play underscores the folly of war for the U.V.F. in W.W.1

    Alias has written another spiel about the distinction between a nation and a sovereign state. I would point to Alias that the well-known song is – A Nation Once Again—Not a Sovereign State Once Again. Americans call their country a Nation not a sovereign state. Instead of setting himself up as a self appointed authority on Nations and Sovereign States the person should look up the dictionary understanding of a nation. I quote: –
    A nation is an aggregate of people usually the inhabitants of a specified territory who share common customs, origins, history and frequently a common language with a single government and an agreed constitution.
    In that understanding of a nation the six county state doesn’t fit the bill. The people don’t share a common origin. The customs of orange parades aren’t shared but are contentious and are resisted. But above all else the people have been at loggerheads over the U. K. Constitution since its inception. The constitution was imposed in an undemocratic manner in 1801. In the six county state it is still imposed on a significant portion of the population. The current election comes across as another referendum on the constitution showing a people split over it as they have been in every election since 1921. But while the B.B.C hype calls the six county state, a nation, that doesn’t stand up to rational scrutiny.

    How ever I don’t wish to get dragged into dispute over an imposed undemocratic constitution with U.K. zealots. What puzzles me is British culture. In my understanding, for a culture to be a culture it must be expressed by poets in poetry. That is a sine qua non of all cultures. What poets or poetry express British culture? Can we lump Shakespeare W B Yeats Robert Burns and Dylan Thomas together and call them British poets expressing an homogeneous British Culture? Surely not. This is false fake phoney bogus and politically stage-managed.

  • Rory Carr

    Surely, Michael, the poetry of modern British culture is most gloriously exemplified in the verses of the redoubtable E Jarvis Thribb whose incomparable musings we are priveleged to receive each fortnight courtesy of Britain’s foremost cultural publication, Private Eye.