Clegg bubble boosts Brown

The Sun gloats over Brown trailing after the debate.

THE General Election was turned on its head tonight when the Lib Dems pushed Labour into THIRD place following the historic leaders’ telly debate. Nick Clegg – boosted by a convincing victory in Thursday’s showdown – saw his party leap eight points to 30 per cent. The sensational YouGov poll for The Sun had David Cameron’s Tories still in the lead on 33 per cent. But Gordon Brown’s ailing Labour Party was in disarray, relegated to a dismal 28 per cent.

What the Sun didn’t say.. From the UK Polling Report

On a uniform swing these figures would leave Labour the largest party, despite being in third place. The Lib Dems would have around about 100 seats. In reality though, it’s almost impossible to say how this would translate into an election result

And Peter Riddell in the Times confirms..

Peter Riddell….

the upside in terms of seats is limited. The Lib Dems’ current poll rating of 20 per cent would give them 51 seats. Raising that to 24 per cent would give them 75 seats However, if both Labour and the Lib Dems had 27 per cent of the vote, against 34 per cent for the Tories, Mr Clegg would still have only 86 MPs, against 261 for Mr Brown and 272 for Mr Cameron. Again the Tories would be the main losers. Only if the Lib Dems leapfrog Labour and win 30 per cent, against 26 per cent, will Mr Clegg have more than 100 MPs and make serious inroads into Mr Brown’s ranks

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Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London