British election to be tight, but not that tight…

Nick Cohen with the best run down on election pitfalls (now Gordon has officially called the start) of the morning…

…political polls are loss leaders whose main purpose is to generate publicity for the brand. Often newspapers receive them free of charge. They are not proper random samples, and historically have always had a bias towards Labour. Mike Smithson, of politicalbetting.com has a golden rule that “whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in the least favourable position that has been the most accurate”.

In other words, Labour supporters should be more worried than they are about their low poll showing. Their party’s real performance could well be worse. One company normally does what it promises and produces an accurate prediction.

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty