Channel 4 estimates that the debate generated 20,000 Tweets between 8 and 10pm last night – hitting the number one trending topic in the UK and London on Twitter, and number three worldwide. The television debate alone drew 1.8 million viewers 750,000 more than watched last week’s Dispatches – but it was the social networking furore surrounding it that has captured the attention of commentators, voters and politicians alike. The second most tweeted event in UK politics, #askthechancellors remained the number two trending topic on Twitter in the UK this morning. It is still attracting up to three tweets a minute, Channel 4 estimates. In a new battleground for election candidates, 376 constituencies are now represented on Twitter, according to Tweetminster
Tweetminster are breaking new ground to predict the election by what they call word of mouth using a Japanese model. Early results in marginal constituencies.
Initial top-line predictions include an analysis of key target seats, a top-line party breakdown based on the most mentioned candidates in the 376 constituencies represented on Twitter – CONSERVATIVES 34%; LABOUR 35%; LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 22% OTHERS 9% – which, assuming margins of error, would encompass various hung parliament scenarios with Labour short of seats to a Labour majority of 14 seats.
You heard it here first! But note, the predictive model may keep changing….
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London