SWOTing the parties: Threats and Opportunities of the DUP

Okay, last one for the DUP today… a composite of threats and opportunities… Please, just bullet your suggests, rather than comment… We’ll start with another party tomorrow…

  • Mick,

    hopefully you are timing your SF negatives blog for Friday morning as they may need taking down a peg or two by then.

  • Cynic2

    Opportunities

    * merger with UU gives huge voter base
    * doiung the deal spins off the right wing nutters into TUV leaving leadership free to move Party to centre
    * hung parliament increases bargaining power and weakens SF who wont take up seats

    Threats

    * loss of any friends in Britain and Ireland
    * more revelations on iris / other members
    * long term direct rule -= no salaries and loss of key players
    * Tory legislation bans double jobbing

  • Opportunities:

    .Below Adams, SF leadership and party generally are intellectual and strategist lightweights

    . A hung parliament/Conservative government may need their votes

    .Conservatives and Unionists lack focus and discipline

    Threats:

    .Demographics

    .An increasing constitutional-neutral segment of the electorate

    .TUV and whoever their next replacement on the ultra-wing when Jim inevitably does a “Lundy”
    There is a segment of the electorate that’ll never countance power-sharing full-stop (never mind with SF)

    . and if they finally get their act together and live up to the pre-publicity, the Conservatives and UUP.

  • Threats:

    Increasing secularisation of population and embarassment of Unionists at hypocritical mixing of politics and religion.

    If no deal;
    blame for hindering progress over strategically useless parading issue.
    Southern government involvement.

    If deal;
    blame for deterioration in community relations as parading issue easily manipulated by republicans

    Electoral threat of TUV whether there is a deal or not, but obviously greater if the former.

    Few friends anywhere.

    Governments taking SF view of STA.

    Opportunities:

    Sympathy for Robinson and good battling by him.

    Pact with UUP if deal.

    Pact with TUV if no deal.

    Pact with Tories if hung Parliament.

    If deal made, Stormont may start delivering, possible agreement on education.

  • joeCanuck

    Opportunities:
    – Sir Reg Empty provides cover for intransigence.

    Threats:
    – Return to minor protest party status
    – Green hued Direct Rule

  • Jimmy_Sands

    Opportunities:

    There is money to be made in the catering industry. Easy finance may be available to well qualified applicants.

    Threats:

    See “opportunities”.

  • FitzjamesHorse

    Opportunities.
    Few…the 36ish MLAs is unlikely ever to be bettered by them as UUP prolly hit rock bottom on 18 and TUV will hive off some support and seats in Stormont. So they must forward plan for being downgraded. Likewise at Westminster.

    Threats.
    Double Jobbing…to some extent all parties need a big name to lead the ticket in multi seat Stormont constituencies. DUP have a ready made team of big names. They might circumvent double jobbing legislation by say Peter Robinson heading the ticket in East Belfast but resigning to co-opt a losing DUP person. Cynical but workable.

    TUV……not really much of an electoral threat in short term because it has no big name defectors but DUP shooting itself in foot (scandals) doesnt help. Building up the TUV is a good tactic for Nationalists as unionism can only move so far right without falling off edge.

    Alliance “culture”.
    now that Ford has declared himself agnostic on the border (well he has a sniff of office as a neutral) other AP types will follow. There is a creeping Irishness …..rugby, GAA in mainstream, Irish language, PSNI recognisably neutral, Orange marches and Orange types marginalised, a border that is not actually visible, even SF in the mainstream.

  • Comrade Stalin

    It would be a lot more interesting if we could have a good old debate about how we can fix it. Not recriminations or blame, and not talk about the strategic nuances of the current situation of any of the parties.

    I’m saying that because I haven’t seen any real discussion of the sticking point on Slugger, namely the issue of parades and the Parades Commission. While I don’t think it’s sensible, or possible, to have a deal where SF deliver parades in certain neighbourhoods (any more than it is possible to have a deal where the DUP deliver Orange rerouting) surely we can put our heads together and come up with something better than what is there right now.

  • FitzjamesHorse

    Who actually cares about the Parades issue except the actual protagonists.
    Wootton Bassett …rightly or wrong….set the template. Gordon Brown was revulsed or repulsed or whatever at the idae of Islamists parading in North Wiltshire but is not repulsed or revulsed at Orange Order doing the same.

    Why do we need a solution when there are not actually any parades? Garvaghy Road is so 20th century. Move on.

    If we could only persuade the Orange Order to march in Wootton Bassett…..it might just work.

  • FitzjamesHorse

    Who actually cares about the Parades issue except the actual protagonists.
    Wootton Bassett …rightly or wrong….set the template. Gordon Brown was revulsed or repulsed or whatever at the idae of Islamists parading in North Wiltshire but is not repulsed or revulsed at Orange Order doing the same.

    Why do we need a solution when there are not actually any parades? Garvaghy Road is so 20th century. Move on.
    Would also be cheaper to send Portadown Orange men to Wootton Bassett (theres an airport only 4 miles away) and everybody is happy. No need to go to the expense of return tickets.
    If we could only persuade the Orange Order to march in Wootton Bassett…..it might just work.

  • FitzjamesHorse

    Actually it might be cost effective to fly Portadown Orange men to Wootton Bassett (convenient air port)for the day.

  • OscarTheGrouch

    Wouldn’t be great if parades were treated like anywhere else – if the police think they will cause trouble – then its a simple no. Equally wouldn;t it be great to stop having the Irish language used as irritant to wind up unionists. I live in a Gaeltacht and I hear more Irish massacred by Belfats MLA’s at the start of every bleedin speech.

    While were in this mode – can I have a green Aston Martin DB5 and a Sketch by Rembrandt.

  • As Defender of the Faith, the Queen should offer contentious parades the opportunity to march to Buckingham Palace on the Twelfth. It would literally be on the Queens highway, no true Orangeman could refuse and it would be a tourist attraction in London. There could be a big garden party in Hyde Park afterwards with mock battles and so forth. It would be an excellent PR move for the loyal orders and, in NI, would take much of the heat out of the occasion. For these reasons, Orangemen would never countenance it.

    Invite local GAA clubs to march in contentious parades. Involve the other tribe. Kill them with kindness.

    Yes, I’m an optimist ( a delusional one).

  • Comrade Stalin

    FitzjamesHorse

    I appreciate that it might look that way to a two-toilet Stoop, but there are still problems with a small minority of the parades, like those seen in Ardoyne. I think we need a framework which involves politicians, independent brokers, local residents and the bands to come up with a compromise.

    Nailing this one to the ground would be a great way to show that dialogue and agreement can work.

    Oscar,

    Wouldn’t be great if parades were treated like anywhere else – if the police think they will cause trouble – then its a simple no.

    We used to have that system. Several problems :

    – anyone can create trouble in order to get a parade rerouted, not necessarily fairly
    – the police take the fall no matter what decision they take

    It was right to take it out of the hands of the police.

    N.Exile,

    Killing with kindness is exactly the right attitude, and I think it’ll work.

  • joeCanuck

    Comrade,

    Those were the days when the police were little more than the armed wing of the Unionist Party/Orange Order and took their operational orders from the unionist Minister of Home Affairs.
    Might be different now; at least we are led to believe so (and I think they are).

  • FitzjamesHorse

    Comrade Stalin…..what is a two toilet Stoop? I honestly have no idea.
    My position is that there does not actually NEED to be a solution to the Parades issue.
    If residents wnat them…no proble.