Odds on losers

Via Live Odds and Scores the bookies (Paddy Power) at least think Adams and Robinson might not see out the year as party leaders. They also predict real damage for the DUP at the next Assembly election and treading water for SF. The only silver lining for Adams is they think Robinson will be out the door before him.

Gerry Adams to be Sinn Fein Leader on 31/12/10
• 5/6 Yes
• 5/6 No

Peter Robinson to be DUP Leader on 31/12/10
• 4/6 Yes
• 11/10 No

First Leader to Go?
• 2/5 Peter Robinson
• 7/4 Gerry Adams

  • Paul

    I think it must be odds that both leaders will be gone by the end of the year.Adams should of being gone weeks go.As for the assembly election the DUP will take a hit.The sinners will probably hold what they have got or might lose a couple of seats but no more.The sooner Fianna fail come north and team up with the SDLP and offer an alternative etc the better it will be for nationalists.

  • Stephen Blacker

    Both these parties are very arrogant when it comes to admitting they do or have done any wrong. The best thing to do is keep your money in your pocket but if pushed I would say Gerry will go first.

    Gerry has been taking a back seat for a while now and I believe the accusations pointed in his direction are worse than Robinsons, that is my reason for picking him.

  • Paul

    I would say Gerry will go first.

    Gerry has been taking a back seat for a while now and I believe the accusations pointed in his direction are worse than Robinsons, that is my reason for picking him.
    Posted by Stephen Blacker on Jan 18, 2010 @ 07:04

    I totally agree

  • al

    My money is on Gerry to be first out. Peter seems quite sure he has clean hands whereas Gerry is slowly running low on soap (or spin if you prefer the political context).

  • Mick Fealty

    I’ve just filed a piece for tomorrow’s Mirror suggesting the DUP have options, but SF don’t.

    The only reason for standing Adams down now is the controversy. But aside from Mary Lou, there are not many guaranteed clean pairs of hands waiting to take over.

    She has clean hands, but no authority to run the party the way it currently runs. I’d not put money on it, but I’d say its Adams for the foreseeable.

  • Paul

    She has clean hands, but no authority to run the party the way it currently runs. I’d not put money on it, but I’d say its Adams for the foreseeable.
    Posted by Mick Fealty on Jan 18, 2010 @ 07:11 PM

    how longs the foreseeable future Mick.?

  • joeCanuck

    Once we have a date for devolution of P&J, Gerry will announce it as a great victory for him and completion of Stage One of his Grand Strategy for Reunification. He will go on to say that he will step down as Dear Leader at the next Ard Chomhairle but will remain as MP and MLA.

  • John O’Connell

    Paddy Power should really have had a look at my prediction calculation which suggests that great damage will be done to Gerry Adams under the reign of Gordon Brown. In fact the leadership of the DUP and Sinn Fein will be disgraced in this period. Paisley has already gone in disgrace and Adams is on his way out. And it has to happen under Gordon Brown specifically.

    It’s not a prediction as only a fool engages in prophecy. It is worked out rationally in the context of complete belief in the existence of God.

  • Paul

    #

    Once we have a date for devolution of P&J, Gerry will announce it as a great victory for him and completion of Stage One of his Grand Strategy for Reunification. He will go on to say that he will step down as Dear Leader at the next Ard Chomhairle but will remain as MP and MLA.
    Posted by joeCanuck on Jan 18, 2010 @ 07:23 PM

    The public will see straight throw that joe I think such is the pressure mounting on Adams and sinn fein he will have to go pretty soon if he doesn’t he will just damage not only himself which he already has done but sinn fein as well.

  • John O’Connell

    I agree with Mick though. Sinn Fein have no alternative to Gerry Adams if they want to be big boys.

    But the reality is that the days of being big boys are over and Gerry Adams will fall regardless. The DUP faced ther same decision over Paisley and the Shinners can either be unpopular little boys or popular little boys but they will be littler from now on in.

  • slug

    A Universal Truth: The more SF are under pressure the more the nationalist electorate vote SF.

    *This truth means that no oppositional party can ever wing votes from SF.
    *This truth is something that I don’t understand, but it is what nationalist voters on these forums tell me.
    *This truth is what the evidence suggests.

    Ergo Adams is safer than Robinson.

  • I think Gerry Adams will go first.

    The child abuse accusations are not going away, if anything they are getting louder and the PPS have at least one case they have no excuse for sitting on.

    Peter Robinson,

    Cuckold, well thats not the end of the world, did not the same happen to Churchill and MacMillan. Financial misconduct, perhaps but only if there is more than we have seen.

  • al

    “It is worked out rationally in the context of complete belief in the existence of God.”

    Rational and existence of God in the same sentence!

    Go all in John put your mortgage on it if you’re that confident.

  • Mick Fealty

    slug,

    I am not sure that rule will hold. Seen through the prism of the last ten years that works. But that’s been in a period when the SDLP has assumed some kind of moral responsibility for the whole GFA.

    And the fact that SF seem not to fear the electorate may once have communicated their confidence, I wonder now whether it reads more as complacency. Whatever, I think the SDLP sense their new leader is taking over at a time of opportunity.

    The fact that SF don’t have options at this stage makes it difficult for them to communicate they’ve changed from the war time party that all this toxic legacy stuff is coming from.

    It does not guarantee the SDLP anything. But then again no political party is guaranteed an eternal hegemony either (except Fianna Fail, maybe).

  • John O’Connell

    Al

    Rational and existence of God in the same sentence!

    I think it’s fair to say that if I didn’t believe in God, nobody would. I know of course of the certainty of God’s existence. I have no doubts.

    I’m not a betting man, but I know that Gerry Adams is going soon, having already achieved the “disgrace” component of my interpretation.

  • Garza

    Throwing you weight of support over one human being just because you like what he/she is saying is always a dangerous thing. Never rally behind someone so hard and so passionately and so blindly that you don’t notice or know any of their faults before it is too late – it leads to disaster

    If you need a movement to jump onto, it should be one that focus’s mostly on yourself, you should be using that energy to figure out who you are as a person, what you want out of life and what you are doing here on planet earth.

    That would be a lot better than completely jumping behind someone whose actions turn out to be the fruits of a deceitful or immoral mind, or worse – both.

  • joeCanuck

    only a fool engages in prophecy

    It’s not often you see someone condemn themselves in advance. Sort of pre-hanging by your own petard.

  • heamaisbharney

    “A Universal Truth: The more SF are under pressure the more the nationalist electorate vote SF. ” slug
    There was truth in this but in such changed circumstances and with the nature of the allegations I’m not so sure now. however, given the lack of serious opposition Sinn Féin can take a fair drop in votes without losing.

    I agree with Mick that Sinn Fein options for a new leader are very limited. The old timers are just that, old; Mary Lou has no clout, Murphy has no charisma and as for Catriona……

  • al

    John I wouldn’t venture over the border with the new blasphemy laws in force if I were you.

    Daithi McKay would be a decent outsider for me. The old folk are stuck in the past if Sinn Fein want to move forward they need the younger generation. McKay has done some admirable work in his time and has very much kept his head down and worked hard. If nothing else he deserves a shout at being top dog.

  • J O’Connor Al

    The new/changed blasphemy laws here are an absolute disgrace and F/F should be ashamed.

    Yet another example of F/F aiding and abetting the Catholic Church. One of these days that bunch of born guilty charlatans will grow a back bone.

  • John O’Connell

    joeCanuck

    It’s not often you see someone condemn themselves in advance. Sort of pre-hanging by your own petard.

    You’re all mixed up, Joe. I have never predicted or prophesied on this site or elsewhere. I have made a mathematical calculation of Gerry Adams future that simply depends on knowing with certainty that there is significance to his name and Ian Paisley’s name coming out at 666. The calculation is at the link above. His future is to go in disgrace under the rule of the seventh king of the Troubles, Gordon Brown. I could make a lot of money out of this but I’m not that kind of person.

    Al / Pippakin

    I doubt if they’ll be able to get anywehere near me on the blasphemy rules north of south.

  • socaire

    I used to read Slugger to learn something, to weigh up new arguments and to evaluate others’ opinions. Now there’s nothing onl a beast, a moth eaten cat and an English language abuser. What has happened when the Tribune is recommended reading?

  • Mick Fealty

    No one holding back from going somewhere else socaire..

  • John O’Connell

    socaire

    Surely you also came on to Slugger to accept defeat for Sinn Fein:-

    And another thing, 846. If the Peace Process falls because of this manufactured maelstrom of cretinous hypocrisy, the people will know that you – 846- was partly responsible – nay – wholly responsible for our return to violence and bloodshed. How can you sleep in your bed at night?
    Posted by socaire on Jan 05, 2010 @ 08:18 PM

  • socaire!

    You remember my cat. How nice!

    And, as a good Irish woman should, I abuse the English language all the time.

    The Tribunal was frightening reading. I hope you read it.

  • heamaisbharney

    socaire,
    my moth eaten old Foclóir Gaedhilge anus Béarla by Dinneen gives ‘socaire’ as ‘an eager listener, a prier, an inquisitive person, an interfering person’ making me think you’ll be back. Also says as well, ‘one with a meloncholy expression’ or ‘a pouter’ and finally ‘one with a prominent chin’! Tell me you’re not Connor Murphy or John O’Dowd!

  • socaire

    I am a newcomer to this site, but already I know I would miss you if you chose another.

    You bring out the worst in me.

  • heamaisbharney

    pippakin

    Since scolaire is worried about how the English language is being treated here i think we should give him a litle culture’ I’ll start with a verse from that excellent writer, Mr Flann O’Brien, an expert in Irish or English.

    “In times of trouble and lousy strife,
    You have still got a darlint plan,
    You still can turn to a brighter life-
    A PINT OF PLAIN IS YOUR ONLY MAN.”

  • Driftwood

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/northern-irish-politics

    Stuck a fiver on Robbo to be First Minister next month at 4/5. Managed to get Allister at 3/1 for North Antrim in the national election a month ago. He was virtually evens last week but betting suspended.

    No betting on South Antrim, surely Willie McCrea, even if he’s not favourite, he’ll be sure to come in from behind the other candidates?

  • Garza

    Driftwood did you ever hear what happened about the certain allegations that where meant to come out on sunday?

  • Heamaisbharney

    And I in due deference to socaires known preference will take a leaf from Shakespeare

    Alas, how is’t with you,
    That you do bend your eyes on vacancy,
    And with the incorporal air do hold discourse?

    My thanks heamaisbharney!

    you made me think, whatever next!

  • Driftwood

    Garza
    Injunctions. All will (eventually) be (partly) revealed.
    Let’s see who are stepping down for family reasons come the next elections.

    Depression can play havoc with the mind, and the stress of public life. The slartibuckfast article (and Newton’s) ‘have wings’.

    The button pushers will do so when they feel the need. Patience…..

  • Garza

    “Injunctions. All will (eventually) be (partly) revealed.
    Let’s see who are stepping down for family reasons come the next elections.”

    Good, I told my DUPer ex girlfriend, she is having a right giggle at me at my expense on sunday. As long as I know I’ll have the last laugh :-).

  • Kathy C

    posted by Kathleen Collins

    There was a time when people said the sdlp wouldn’t continue if john hume left. He did and the sdlp is still around.

    Bairbre de Brun of sinn fein topped the pole in northern ireland in 2009 for a position in the EU to represent northern ireland. She is a well educated woman with experience. A far better pick than mary lou to replace gerry adams.

  • slug

    I suppose Martin McGuinness would replace Adams if Adams stood aside, at least for now.

  • Bairbre de Brun, hmm, no, wrong generation, she was around when this scandal was building and that may become a minus. Additionally, she has all the charisma of a banshee on the roof at midnight. I would have to give serious consideration to voting for Iris Robinson before I would vote for her.

  • KathyC

    Well at least Martin McGuinness is from Derry, (out of town out of mind?)

    He has done well in the Assembly, and seems to be riding this mess, if not with denials, at least with silence.

  • Kathy C

    posted by Kathleen Collins

    pippakin….WOW—you would rather vote for an older married woman who had an affair with a 19 year old and a woman who might have acted illegally in money matters for her young lover rather than a well educated woman who represents ALL her constiuents in the EU.
    There were 126,184 people in northern Ireland who did not and do not share your view regarding Bairbre….because they voted for her. She received approx. 32,000 more votes than her nearest rival.

    saying she is of the wrong generation and then stating mcguiness would be better….she is younger than mcguiness. You applaud mcguiness for his silence….Bairbre hasn’t said anything either…but you call her a banshee. I was surprised by your comment.

  • KathyC

    I am sorry if I surprised you and Ms de Brun may have many excellent qualities, but I am feeling a little jaundiced toward anyone from that generation right now, and she always seemed to be standing beside Gerry Adams at any press conferences back in the day. To be honest, I never could stand the womans voice. Terrible arnt I. And whats wrong with a toy boy? Im saving up for one.

    The reason I prefer Martin McGuinness is, he is popular with unionists and republicans alike and seems to have done well in office. He may offer a glimmer of hope for the future.

  • Kathy C

    posted by Kathleen Collins

    Hi pippakin, I don’t understand being jaundiced toward Ms. de Brun’s generation since she is of the same generation as mcguinness. He was born may 23, 1950 and she was Jan 10, 1954. So why is her generation bad…his good?

    De Brunn is also popular with unionist…she represents them in the EU along with republicans…and don’t forget her 126,184 votes for the EU…it helped propell sinn fein into the spot they are today.
    Here are her qualifications per the EU

    BA (Hons.) (1974). Higher Diploma in Education (1976); Postgraduate Certificate in Education (1980). Teacher, community worker (1976-1997).
    Head of International Department, Sinn Féin (1994). Sinn Féín negotiator (1997 -).
    Member of Northern Ireland Assembly (1998-2004). Minister of Health, Social Services and Public Safety, Northern Ireland Assembly (1999-2000; 2000-2002).

    I think pretty impressive and has done well in office.

    as for her voice….I heard her give a speach at seton hall university in new jersey several years ago…she was impressive and I didn’t find her voice irritating.

    When the police raided sinn fein offices in stormont several years back—I recall the tv footage of the police carrying out boxes and it was not martin mcguiness going after the police yelling at them…but bairbre de brun. I was very impressed by that. All the men just watched and was bairbre de brun who went down the stairs at stormont following the police demanding they return the boxes. That took courage.

  • Alias

    “All the men just watched and was bairbre de brun who went down the stairs at stormont following the police demanding they return the boxes.”

    And did she think they’d obey her demands? If she did, then she a very poor grasp of reality; and if she didn’t, then she lacks self-control.

    Anyway, whoever the security services decide to replace Gerry with (not that they intend to dislodge him) will have to be another ‘strongman’ figure who has the authority among hard-line muppets to continue the process of integrating them into the British state while telling them that he is leading them in the opposite direction, so that rules Bairbre out of the equation.

    Even if the security services deem it expedient to dislodge Gerry they will still need him as a visible figurehead, and while it is hard to see where such a role exists or could be created, you can be certain that he won’t be dislodged until such a role is created for him.

    But it’s kinda cute that the ordinary Shinners still think they are in a position to select their leader…

  • Kevsterino

    I can see circumstances where neither on leaves their respective leadership posts for at least another year.

  • KathyC Kevsterino

    I understand that some will admire Ms de Brun.

    I am sincerely proud that I do not care how many certificates someone has. In the case of a lot of people, especially at that time, the lack of them meant that someone had to leave school at fifteen to help support the family,

    Kathy, usually when someone gets ‘promoted’ to Europe, they are being pensioned off. Not always, but in the case of senior politicians, usually.

    As for the raid on Stormont I was furious at the time, but lately I have wondered what suspicions they may have had, they almost certainly already knew what was on the computers.

    Politics is like everything, we like politicians as individuals as much as the party they represent.

    I repeat Martin McGuinness was, as far as I know, not involved in Belfast during the period in question. He has performed well, and is gaining support from all sides.

    To be honest I would prefer some new charismatic politicians to burst upon us, problem is they are not here, yet.

  • Kathy C

    posted by Kathleen Collins

    Hi again pippakin, martin mcguiness might be from derry and not belfast but he has his own baggage to carry.
    following is a link to a story about martin mcguiness giving a ‘warning’ to the McCarthy sisters who were trying to find justice for the brother that was murdered,
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2005/mar/15/northernireland.northernireland

    also, martin’s brother got a divorce a few years back and then….the ex-wife or martin’s ex-sister in law was frozen out of sinn fein. She sued and sinn fein settled. Not the nicest of guys.

  • KathyC

    Hello, I know he is not, to get where he is now, he must have trodden on some very big feet!

    The business of Robert McCarthy was disgraceful, but as we see now, the truth seems to be dribbling out of the past and I have hopes these cases will be solved.

    I read about the ex sister in law case, and it is another example of the control within S/F. If you were there you with the hardliners, loyalist or republican, you were involved, thats the way its looking.

    It is just Martin Mcguinness seems to have grown, and if he has kept his ‘influence’ to dealing with adults he may prove the best candidate for S/F leader.

    So many of the politicians were too close to the violence for comfort.

  • Kathy C

    posted by Kathleen Collins

    Hi pippakin, I have a huge problem with mcguiness and so does many in the republican circles. I see him as a hypocrite. He is all smiles and chuckles with paisley and bends over backwards to get along nice nice with the DUP. Ok…he wants to try and mend fences…bring different points of view out into the sun. Then why doesn’the have the same respect for fellow republicans who differ with his point of view? There is no respect for those republicans…only respect for the dup. Many elected sinn fein people have left the party. There is dissatification with mcguiness and adams as leaders. Then we have mcguiness with his ‘traitor’ comment. The british crown used the word traitor and the crime of treason against the crown for the excuse to imprison Irishmen and women over the years. For mcguiness to call dissidents traitors…was a word he picked to demonstrate what he felt for people who hold different points of view.
    There was a time when he would have been called a traitor to the crown…but now he just works for it and smiles and laughs with the dup and uses a strong hand against people in his own party who don’t agree with him. He is bad news

  • paul kielty

    Ladies, I don’t think you need to worry too much about any impending change of leadership. It is not going to happen anytime soon.
    I’m not a betting man, and even if I was, I wouldn’t take 1000/1 on GA NOT being at the helm.
    I say this for two reasons. Firstly, I think it was Mick Fealty that stated in an ealier thread that in the end it will come down to whomever you believe, the ST or GA. I think that ultimately this is exactly what will happen.
    Personally, having followed the story in the ST, and followed GA statements, and that of Declan Kearney, I believe GA. I believe that the whole manner in which this ‘investigation’ has been conducted, the transparent nature of this witch-hunt, and the past political hatreds of the individuals involved in this witch-hunt, regarding republicans in general and the north in particular, leave me with little doubt as to whom is doing the minipulating.
    That is the problem facing his detracters, who want to end his political carreer, his grass roots support smell them a mile off. Thats the reality.
    Secondly, as a party of political activists, twenty of whom have been murdered and scores seriously wounded, including GA himself. This is a party that will not be intimidated.
    GA will go in his own time, and thats not this year.

  • socaire

    Fret not, a Mhicheail, I will return when the vituperation has passed. The huffy schoolgirl doesn’t suit you and where would get craic like it (normally)

  • KathyC

    Ireland is a many and varied country now, which will I hope, in the not to distant future, contain thousands more protestants, unionists, and yes even loyalists. If he is doing nothing else Martin McGuinness is recognising that.

    Recent history shows you end up supping with whoever your version of the devil is.

    pkielty

    Notwithstanding the above, I suspect you may be right, at least for the time being. If the charges are now with the PSNI and the PPS they will not be able to drag their heels forever and the victims will have their day in court.

    Socaire!

    It is as always a pleasure to hear from you.

  • socaire

    I’m still keeping an eye on you and the Beast 846. You both seem to have lost the run of yourselves. Perchance I could matchmake. The Beast is not unattractive and is rumoured to have money. You two could woo each other and leave Dear Leader alone.

  • Socaire!

    You old romantic!

    But please spare me from such wiles. I am past the age of matchmaking, even as a form of sarcasm.

    Blessed Be!

  • John O’Connell

    I agree, Pippakin.

    Socaire

    I know you’re trying to lighten the mood music but it is not just appropriate at this time.