UUP’s Jo-Anne Dobson takes 64 per cent of the Lurgan vote…

On a 24% turnout it is hard to extrapolate too much from the Craigavon by election. Add the fact that the DUP chose not to contest this one either and it limits it even further as a weather cock. Although you can hardly blame the winning candidate for bringing in the name of Dromore in to the matter, the fact is the UUP got its base moving again. In Jo-Anne Dobson has a smart young female councillor. Although the TUV did respectably, but it knows it has a problem with candidate selection when two of the constituency association left, not to join another party but to start another association in a neighbouring constituency.

  • Paul

    A great result for the UUP which was a gain from the TUV dont forget.I am sorry mick I disagree this was not a good performance from the TUV they throw everything at this election there was no DUP candidate either Allister claims hes now represents a third of the unionist electorate what a load of rubbish. I think the percentage in this election of the over all TUV vote was about 25 per cent of the over all unionist vote and there wasn’t a DUP candidate either suggests to me it could of being much lower for the TUV if the DUP had stood.As I have said before the TUV have nobody else bar Allister the rest are non even worth mentioning such is there poor standard.

  • I think this result shows quite clearly that TUV do not represent anywhere near the majority of Unionists.

  • Harry J

    how many elections haev the TUV lost now?

  • Mark McGregor

    Mick,

    Can you expand on what you meant on constituency associations/members. Its a little unclear but seems interesting.

  • Mark McGregor

    Kilsally,

    It surely demonstrates the TUV don’t represent a majority of Unionism but it does demonstrate, yet again that come multi-seat elections at Council and Stormont level that they have a level of support that is going to return candidates and very likely more candidates than Alliance.

  • RepublicanStones

    Good result for the UUP, wonder what Turg’s will have to say on the matter. At this point it is difficult to know which party has the hearts of a majority of unionists. One thing is for certain….I wanna see more of Ms Dobson 😉

  • Hold the celebrations: mid-January, foul weather, and less than 24% turn-out.

    We ain’t seen a swallow yet, let alone a summer.

  • joeCanuck

    True, Mark. It seems they are definitely electable.
    But as Mick remarks, hard to extrapolate from such a low turnout and in the absence of the DUP.

  • Drumlins Rock

    David Calvert increased his vote by 126, since the last election when he stood as an independant, hardly making a dent into the DUPs near 4000 votes that were up for grabs. The swing from DUP back to UUP would have been much more significant I imagine, but guess we shall never know. I dont think Jimbo will be that happy tonight.

  • Mark McGregor

    DR,

    I love the way the increase over Calverts actual vote and % is being compared with reduced actual votes for every other standing party and their percentages become the issue.

    You can’t tell anything from this for sure but by god it isn’t half being spun.

    All we know is the UUP did well in a safe Unionist ward, the DUP didn’t fight, the TUV got a respectable % in a low turnout election and SF seem to be retaining and/or building on their lead over the SDLP.

    A bad election for the DUP, less so for the SDLP, decent for SF, encouraging for the TUV, fantastic for the UUP. And an absolute demonstration of the utter and accepted irrelevance of Alliance, PUP and Greens.

  • Paul

    #

    David Calvert increased his vote by 126, since the last election when he stood as an independant, hardly making a dent into the DUPs near 4000 votes that were up for grabs. The swing from DUP back to UUP would have been much more significant I imagine, but guess we shall never know. I dont think Jimbo will be that happy tonight.
    Posted by Drumlins Rock on Jan 14, 2010 @ 08:05 PM

    A good post spot on.

  • Drumlins Rock

    but paul….

    least he didnt run away!!!

  • Paul

    All we know is the UUP did well in a safe Unionist ward, the DUP didn’t fight, the TUV got a respectable % in a low turnout election and SF seem to be retaining and/or building on their lead over the SDLP.

    A bad election for the DUP, less so for the SDLP, decent for SF, encouraging for the TUV, fantastic for the UUP. And an absolute demonstration of the utter and accepted irrelevance of Alliance, PUP and Greens.
    Posted by Mark McGregor on Jan 14, 2010 @ 08:21 PM

    Nobody’s spinning anything the fact is mark this was a very good result for the UUP and a set back for the TUV who mark if you didn’t know actually lost there seat.And who polled about 25 per cent of the unionist over all vote.The DUP didn’t stand so one can only conclude it could of being even worse for the TUV if they had. And that’s with all whats being happening this is not a good result at all for TUV and that’s very clear.

  • Paul

    #

    but paul….

    least he didnt run away!!!
    Posted by Drumlins Rock on Jan 14, 2010 @ 08:32 PM

    Yes you are right at least he didn’t run away with regards the DUP thats for the DUP to explain there reasons for not contesting the seat.

  • Paul

    #

    how many elections haev the TUV lost now?
    Posted by Harry J on Jan 14, 2010 @ 07:50 PM

    TUV contested 3 elections lost all 3 one being a sitting MEP and one being a councilor.

  • alan56

    TUV will not be too displeased by this. They are still polling a significant percentage of unionist votes. Translated into a wider poll (and I know that is dangerous)they could take assembly seats. UUP put a lot of effort into this election too so they will have been expecting this result.
    Big question is whar are the DUP voters thinking?

  • scruff

    I heard somewhere that the election was caused by the resignation of a TUV councillor. Why did he / she resign ?

  • Stephen Blacker

    It seems that the DUP block did not turn out, that along with the weather might explain the very low turn-out. That said, it was a super result for Ms.Dobson.

    I hope this result proves to be a trend with pro agreement unionist voters in other elections.

  • Paul

    #

    It seems that the DUP block did not turn out, that along with the weather might explain the very low turn-out. That said, it was a super result for Ms.Dobson.

    I hope this result proves to be a trend with pro agreement unionist voters in other elections.
    Posted by Stephen Blacker on Jan 14, 2010 @ 08:56 PM

    I totally agree.

  • Turgon

    RS,
    Thanks for asking for my views.

    Difficult one to call. A naturally UUP area and the UUP did well. They had a good candidate and it was a low turn out. However, I think they would be right to be significantly encouraged by this result. To be honest I think a better result proportionally than the European one. The small turn out etc. though makes extrapolation essentially impossible.

    In terms of TUV: not a great result; but not a disaster. The candidate was maybe a bit of a problem: David Calvert has run in a lot of elections now. However, despite that and the UUP nature of the ward it was by no means a disaster. As Mark McGregor says this would translate to seats in multi member constituencies.

    Overall I am a little disappointed but by no means inconsolable.

    In terms of 3 TUV elections and no victories: I agree entirely. The TUV need to start winning things. However, think on this. They have had a very significant impact without winning anything. The result of them winning will be even greater and apart from a few adolescents I think no one will be exactly confident taking on Jim Allister in North Antrim. In addition with the right candidates other Westminster seats might be possible and come the next assembly elections even this relatively poor showing would translate into multiple seats.

    The TUV’s critics cannot have it both ways. If this was a poor result as is claimed (and I admit I am a little disappointed) they are still going to get seats.

  • “Nobody’s spinning anything (sic) the fact is mark (sic) this was a very good result for the UUP and a set back for the TUV who mark (sic) if you didn’t know actually lost there (sic) seat.And (sic) who polled about 25 per cent of the unionist over all (sic) vote.The DUP didn’t stand so one can only conclude it could of (sic) being (sic) even worse for the TUV if they had. And (sic) that’s with all whats (sic) being (sic) happening this is not a good result at all for TUV and that’s very clear.”

    Paul, please learn English.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Turgon think you have it right, although you would need come up with a pretty heavyweight candidate to stand a chance anywhere other than North Antrim, and if JIm dosnt take NA to be blunt its curtains for the TUV, how many candidates do you think yous will stand btw?

  • RepublicanStones

    Thanks for that Turgon, but as scruff mentioned – Have you any info as to why the TUV member resigned the seat? Surely the TUV must look upon the abdication of a foothold in staunch UUP territory as ill-advised.

  • Can I simply say that I congratulate Jo Anne and commiserate with David on coming second. TUV will fight another day on other more fertile ground and unlike the DUP we don’t run away from the electorate. New faces are always good to see in NI political life!

  • Paul

    Paul, please learn English.
    Posted by Intelligence Insider on Jan 14, 2010 @ 09:41 PM

    Tut tut play the ball and not the man how many times do you have to be told.? Can a mod please advice this poster.

  • TUV will not make NA as the other strong candidate , Paisley will pick up votes from all over the place in strategic voting.

  • joeCanuck

    To all; we know (and probably Paul does too) that he is grammatically challenged. Learn to live with it.
    I disagree with most of what he says but he is entitled to his POV.

  • Paul

    #

    TUV will not make NA as the other strong candidate , Paisley will pick up votes from all over the place in strategic voting.
    Posted by Kilsally on Jan 14, 2010 @ 10:12 PM

    I totally agree there will be massive tactical voting to keep TUV Allister out.

  • Paul

    The only thing the TUV are going to do is hand seats to sinn fein.Upper bann being one of them

  • Paul, “advice (sic) this poster”??

  • Paul

    #

    Paul, “advice (sic) this poster”??
    Posted by Intelligence Insider on Jan 14, 2010 @ 10:43 PM

    ATTENTION OF A MODERATOR

    The above poster has twice in this thread posted nothing what so ever to do with the thread topic in other words hes not playing the ball hes playing the man.Me in other words his last two posts are nothing more than SPAM.Hes trying to knock the thread of topic

  • Thanks for that strategic insight, Paul. The DUP is blessed with your brilliance.

  • Comrade Stalin

    David,

    TUV will fight another day on other more fertile ground and unlike the DUP we don’t run away from the electorate.

    Are you planning to stand for election yourself, David ? I’d love to see you get your ass kicked, again.

  • Paul

    #
    Surely the TUV must look upon the abdication of a foothold in staunch UUP territory as ill-advised.
    Posted by RepublicanStones on Jan 14, 2010 @ 09:48 PM

    good post I am in total agreement.

  • Paul

    #

    Thanks for that strategic insight, Paul. The DUP is blessed with your brilliance.
    Posted by David Vance on Jan 14, 2010 @ 10:48 PM

    Well one I am not DUP.Not for the first time Mr vance you have got your facts wrong.

    David answer me this are you going to be the westminster candidate for your party the TUV at the gen election in upper bann.? And if you are how would you feel on the thought the fact you would hand the sit to sinn fein.Splitting the Pro union vote three ways

  • Banjaxed

    ‘New faces are always good to see in NI political life!’
    (David Vance)

    New faces; yes! But not your same, old, tired arguments, David. Grow up, things are changing in your ‘Wee Ulster’.

    The old regime is dead. Almost 50% of the population demands to be heard. Time to get your mind around that.

  • Harry J

    David, can you tell us what did jim do with the money left over from his travel expenses.

    Jim made approx 150 trips to brussels and was paid apporx £1000 for each trip. You can get a flight from belfast to brussels for roughly £300 so what happened to the rest of the dosh? and why hasnt be put receipts for each flight on his website?

  • Paul

    Haven’t received the memo I answer to you.

    CR

    We’ll see.

    Banjaxed

    When did I call it “wee Ulster”?

  • Harry J

    Why not send Jim a letter, with your home address on it, I am sure you will get the answer you seek?

  • Paul

    David vance avoiding the questions.I bet its because he would rather see john odowd MP for upper bann than any other Pro Union candidate.Such is the vote splitting intentions of the TUV

  • Harry J

    David, why cant he publish the details on the website for everyone to see?

  • crazy fenian 32

    Can anyone explaine why the d u p did,nt stand was it maybe because they might of got a hammering from the uu or the tuv or even sinn fein god forbid.

  • Harry J

    Why should he jump to your tune?

    CF

    They ran away and then urged people not to vote. Some Party.

    Paul

    Did you read that the dup chairman in Upper Bann called for unionists not to vote? He wanted Sinn Fein in so do not dare lecture me.

  • pinni

    This by-election, from the very beginning, was both a tactical and strategic disaster for the TUV.

    When a party is dominated by a bunch of grumpy old has-beens and wannabes, it has no future.

    The TUV has plenty of fresh blood, but the dinosaurs rule.

  • Harry J

    david, he was a public representative paid with tax payers money, why shouldnt he publish receipts for every flight that was paid FOR him and detail what happend to any monies remaining?

  • Paul

    #

    This by-election, from the very beginning, was both a tactical and strategic disaster for the TUV.

    When a party is dominated by a bunch of grumpy old has-beens and wannabes, it has no future.

    The TUV has plenty of fresh blood, but the dinosaurs rule.
    Posted by pinni on Jan 14, 2010 @ 11:24 PM

    Hear hear the fact the TUV havnt even bothered to post on there website there poor performance tells us everything.The TUV have nothing to offer any of us one dinosaur after another the candidate they had was poor everybody knows it if Mr Vance wants to stand in upper bann go ahead you will get a hiding like you did when you were in the UKUP.another dinasaur grouping the only thing vance will do is hand the upper bann seat to sinn fein.Dont forget allister has said folks thats his mission to make sinn fein the largest party not my words the words of David vances party leader Allister.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    I think that few here believe the visceral hatred of the DUP and Paisleys in North Antrim amongst ex DUP voters and current UUP voters. This can lead to many possibilities in North Antrim, I think trying to call it at this stage is very ambitious as the 3 failures of the TUV will be noted.

    It is undoubted that the TUV and UUP will take votes from the DUP it is the ratio of the transfers that will determine the result. The intervention of Lyle Cubitt, if it happens, could be crucial.

    The unionist vote could have a fairly equal 3 way split, 2 fairly equal with one trailing or one party could forge ahead, time and events will tell.

  • Mason Powell

    Paul,
    You have now twice run crying to the Moderator because you think people are being a bit rude about you. I seem to remember, among your many, many, many posts that you whinged about Sinn Fein being “big cry-babies.” Pots and kettles! If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. You seem to be incapable of seeing a reference to Jim Allister QC or the TUV without launching into a rolling-eyed, mouth-foaming green-ink rant which (in spite of your appeals to the Moderator) almost invariably plays the man rather than the ball. If you have nothing constructive to say, a period of silence would be helpful. Now, finish your homework and get to bed.

  • LabourNIman

    Paul – you’re being a bit hard on UKUP, certainly they did have a few rejects as members but they won their first election!

  • Paul

    id you read that the dup chairman in Upper Bann called for unionists not to vote? He wanted Sinn Fein in so do not dare lecture me.
    Posted by David Vance on Jan 14, 2010 @ 11:24 PM

    never mind your failure to answer a simple straight forward question Mr vance says it all you would rather see a sinn fein MP in upper bann rather than a pro union one.So we must also conclude you would also rather see gerry kelly MP for north belfast.Because thats your agenda to make sinn fein the largest party by handing seats to them isnt it David.

  • Harry J

    David why are you opposed to public representativse publishing their expenses online?

  • Driftwood

    Waringstown (and surround) is a wee patch of middle England, with excellent cricket team to boot. safe UU/Tory territory. I’m surprised it got such a high turnout given that most of the occupants are highly educated and working long hours in well paid jobs.

    Completely different to (eg) Kilwilkie where all the residents are sponging off the taxpayer on DLA and expect SF to maintain their life of Reilly.

    The DUP didn’t stand because most people in that area believe the Earth is more than 6,000 years old.

  • Paul

    #

    Paul,
    You have now twice run crying to the Moderator because you think people are being a bit rude about you. I seem to remember, among your many, many, many posts that you whinged about Sinn Fein being “big cry-babies.” Pots and kettles! If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. You seem to be incapable of seeing a reference to Jim Allister QC or the TUV without launching into a rolling-eyed, mouth-foaming green-ink rant which (in spite of your appeals to the Moderator) almost invariably plays the man rather than the ball. If you have nothing constructive to say, a period of silence would be helpful. Now, finish your homework and get to bed.
    Posted by Mason Powell on Jan 14, 2010 @ 11:33 PM

    I couldnt care less what you think the mods have said most recently play the ball not the man get it now run along like a good little boy and go and get your tissues because of the TUVs poor performance.LOL oh dear what a shame never mind lol.I have plenty to say about the By election in my view the result was poor for the TUV.Now just because you dont like it as the saying goes you will have to lump it.

  • slug

    The UUP did well and the candidate Jo-Anne is well signed up to the UCUNF project and, moreover, a fresh face.

    The results are surely disappointing for TUV but enough to give them hope that they can get some MLAs. Allister still has a chance in North Antrim but I think Ian Paisley Snr will win there if he stands. UCUNF will probably do ok but North Antrim is more of a TUV v DUP contest.

  • Driftwood

    Frustrated Democrat.
    If the DUP want to win North Antrim with Paisley Junior they will have to rely on nationalists voting for the creep. He has a lot of sucking up to do there.
    Talk about Hobsons choice.
    I was speaking to a DUP stalwart from Dervock last weekend who would rather anyone but SF beat Ian Og. Allister is a cert there. And the DUP kill 2 with one stone. Allister prorogued to London – can’t stand for Stormont – and DUP’s biggest liability kept from embarassing the province on the mainland. win/win for them.

  • VI Lurgan

    Just picked up the result as I had slept through this nonsense of an election and waste of taxpayers money.

    I do feel that the result was not a good one for TUV as they would have hoped to get out all their voters to retain their seat and DUP inclusion in future elections can only reduce their overall percentage.

    Or maybe they did get their vote out and it only totalled 752 votes!!!

  • Paul

    #

    The UUP did well and the candidate Jo-Anne is well signed up to the UCUNF project and, moreover, a fresh face.

    The results are surely disappointing for TUV but enough to give them hope that they can get some MLAs. Allister still has a chance in North Antrim but I think Ian Paisley Snr will win there if he stands. UCUNF will probably do ok but North Antrim is more of a TUV v DUP contest.
    Posted by slug on Jan 14, 2010 @ 11:49 PM

    Good post I agree about UCUNF.I agree NA is a straight fight between the DUP/TUV which I think the DUP will come out on top with lots of tactical voting to keep out Allister.

  • Paul

    #

    Just picked up the result as I had slept through this nonsense of an election and waste of taxpayers money.

    I do feel that the result was not a good one for TUV as they would have hoped to get out all their voters to retain their seat and DUP inclusion in future elections can only reduce their overall percentage.

    Or maybe they did get their vote out and it only totalled 752 votes!!!
    Posted by VI Lurgan on Jan 14, 2010 @ 11:58 PM

    I think thats about right and with candidates like the one in the by election yesterday they will probably do even worse.

  • Paul

    And with candidates like Ian Paisley Jnr and Peter Robinson, we shall see how the DUP performs.

  • Paul

    #

    Paul

    And with candidates like Ian Paisley Jnr and Peter Robinson, we shall see how the DUP performs.
    Posted by David Vance on Jan 15, 2010 @ 12:06 AM

    Yes and with candidates like robin stirling and mel lucas just like your poor candidate yesterday will get hammered etc we shall see how you the TUV dinasaurs perform. A lot worse than yesterday hey david.As for Peter robinson even with the difficulties of the last week or so if he stands for east belfast he will win it.

  • pinni

    After spending an absolute fortune on advertising and calling in the big guns like Vance – lol! – the TUV managed only 750 something votes in what could be considered a stronghold for them.

    DUP HQ staff must be shaking in their boots. 😉

  • That would be 750 more than the DUP. DUP HQ staff must be feeling so confident that they will cut a deal with the Provos on P&J rather than risk an Assembly election.

  • Paul

    #

    That would be 750 more than the DUP. DUP HQ staff must be feeling so confident that they will cut a deal with the Provos on P&J rather than risk an Assembly election.
    Posted by David Vance on Jan 15, 2010 @ 12:29 AM

    Well when you spin like that Mr Vance everyone knows you have lost it.We shall see how the TUV really does at the gen election. we know your agenda is to make sinn fein the largest party thats being confirmed by your party leader allister.I wonder with your poor result yesterday David and if the DUP would have stood you would of done even worse.Is it now not time for your candidate yesterday who lost you the seat to retire from politics.???

  • Driftwood

    The DUP didn’t stand because it is a well off, well educated ward. From an agnostic intelligent background. The DUP realise they haven’t a mission in a non flat earther constituency.

    On another thread there was mention of secular unionism and religious (anti- science) unionism.

    That is where the battle lies. Irish republicanism/nationalism does not have this divide as such, and can capitalise on the DUP fundie background.
    Such is politics.

  • Paul

    That is where the battle lies. Irish republicanism/nationalism does not have this divide as such, and can capitalise on the DUP fundie background.
    Such is politics.
    Posted by Driftwood on Jan 15, 2010 @ 12:54 AM

    Yes and allister and vance and co in the dinosaur TUV are aiding and abetting you because they the dinosaurs.TUV) Have said its there intention and mission to make sinn fein the largest party.So splitting the Pro union vote three ways does just that hands seats to sinn fein making them the largest party.

  • RepublicanStones

    Darwin versus Moses Drift…some scrap.

  • Driftwood

    Paul
    Do you prefer Jelly Tots or Dolly Mixtures?

    That might be too old..

    Bob the Builder or Postman Pat?
    (you might have to google the latter)

  • Paul

    Paul
    Do you prefer Jelly Tots or Dolly Mixtures?

    That might be too old..

    Bob the Builder or Postman Pat?
    (you might have to google the latter)
    Posted by Driftwood on Jan 15, 2010 @ 01:08

    Jelly tots will do.Any chance on discussing the thread topic and the TUVs poor performance.????

  • Driftwood

    RS
    I’d like to know how that scrap goes down in Irish nationalist circles.. Is it even mentioned?

    I get the feeling some ‘Unionists’ don’t like Professor Dawkins, true Brit that he is. and probably many Catholics loathe him.

    My preference is that we battle it out with the ‘catholic’ bishops and protestant ‘pastors’ for Northern Ireland to become zealout free.

    Some chance.

  • Driftwood

    Paul
    (Your parents know your still awake?)
    Middle class ward -in parts-(hence low turn out). Intelligent -middle class mum- vs David Calvert.

    But I suppose Leeds beat Man Utd at Old Trafford, so it was a possibility.

  • Garza

    “My preference is that we battle it out with the ‘catholic’ bishops and protestant ‘pastors’ for Northern Ireland to become zealout free.

    Some chance.”

    Never give up hope. If we can secularise the schools, then we might have a chance.

    NI needs to be a “church seperate from state” province.

  • joeCanuck

    C’mon guys.
    I disagree with almost all of Paul’s ideas but quite a few are playing on his apparent youth/immaturity. I confess I did so myself in the past.
    In other words, as he says, playing the man. Hit his ideas and hit them robustly; I will too.
    But fair is fair. His punctuation is terrible but that’s not the worst thing about anyone. I’ve had engineers working for me and some of their spelling was sometimes atrocious; didn’t make them bad engineers. Mick isn’t the best speller either.

  • Question for Paul: If the TUV are going to poll so poorly, then how could they possibly split the vote enough to let in a Sinn Fein MP? To do that they’d need significant support.

  • Harry J

    #

    That would be 750 more than the DUP. DUP HQ staff must be feeling so confident that they will cut a deal with the Provos on P&J rather than risk an Assembly election.
    Posted by David Vance on Jan 15, 2010 @ 12:29 AM

    so david, are you opposed to elected representatives publishing their expsense receipts? if youre not will you call on Jim Allister to pubilsh receipts for every flight he paid for his trips to brussels and explain what happened to any monies remaining?

  • PACE Parent

    “We shall see how the TUV really does at the gen election. we know your agenda is to make sinn fein the largest party”
    Posted by Paul on Jan 15, 2010 @ 12:39 AM

    Paul et al.

    That Sinn Fein will become the largest political party is entirely down to the DUP’s failure to protect and honour the trust that unionists placed in their manifesto claims.

    You may pontificate and postulate on the Lurgan vote all you like but let me be clear that there are many unionists who are keeping their powder dry until Westminster/Assembly elections.
    They have grown tired of misrepresentation, manipulation and retrospective policy positions.

    The DUP can make any deal they like with Sinn Fein over P&J but should bear in mind the Thought for the Day broadcast by BBC N.I. this morning from Fr Eugene O’Neill.
    Last evening’s pipe bomb attack on the GAA group in Antrim smacks of a convenient excuse for the putative Justice Minister to further urgently insist on a deal and for other spineless politicians to use it as a reason to gain media attention. As Fr Eugene O’Neill asks ” why the lack of FaceBook type attention to the policeman?”
    The answer is simple – The current politicians have no effective answer to terrorism. Those victims of last March’s attacks know this to be the case.
    The DUP can only hide from electoral accountability for so long.
    When unionists have an opportunity to vote they will deliver their verdict on the Robinsons and the DUP’s actions while sharing power with Sinn Fein and its consequent effects.

    You will have your answer in due course on how the average unionist thinks and acts. Self certification on behalf of the DUP is not a valid assessment tool.

  • ding dong

    The clear winners were the UUP and they are rightly well pleased ,it was an excellent result, a good campaign, excellent candidate and on 23% turnout they got their vote and a fair bit of the DUP/UUP swing vote out as well.

    Losers DUP, it was their seat originally Mark Russel was elelcted as a DUP councillor and while he moved to the TUV it was a DUP seat. So big lose for the DUP. Even more so because the DUP refused to soldier – desertion from the field of battle especially in defending one’s own positon is cowardice.

    Those that can take heart – the TUV, in this UUP heartland they were never going to win but on a 23% turnout the TUV have a solid base 750. This result – 750 on a 23% turnout in one DEA could a 60% turnout give the TUV 6000 votes in Upper Bann. At the General election this will mostly come form David Simpson’s vote and with a leakage of DUP/UUP swing voters back to the UUP Simpson’s seat is gone

    so in summary clear victory for the UUP, on the basis that the TUV want to damage the DUPs it wasn’t a bad result as far as the DUP are concerned it is a disaster. I doubt it will be too long before we hear Ian Paisley jnr recent comment being repeated by DUP MPs “let me get my coat!”

  • Drumlins Rock

    Lets play “what if”
    What if the DUP had stood in this Bi-election, what would their vote have been? if you take a comparison with the last election I’m guessing they would have come in a strong second with between 1500 and 2000 votes, double the TUV vote, but then some would call that as the TUV has took a third of their vote, interestingly if that many extra voters turned out it would have been about 40% turnout, quite respectable for an “un-necessary bi-election”. I think the real story of this election is there is a drift away from the DUP both ways, but no major swings yet, and on although it appears the drift from the SDLP to SF is continuing, the numbers and change is too little to base anything on, surfice as to say there was certainly no sign of a drift the other way. Strangely the final conclusion we can take is the encouraging turnout, yup you heard me, when you consider the party with a third of voters did not stand and told its voters not to vote I think it shows not everyone has been put off politics, yet.

  • Simpson has a fair operation going in Portadown and the surrounding areas – and a lot of it is his own effort – and even before he was elected MP, so there will be a firm personal vote in my opinion – probably the same opinion largely in NA with the Paisley’s if you listen to the vox pops occasionally on UTV etc

    but we can only surmise after all…. time will tell

    Slugger has plenty of people wishing other people down – that thank goodness is unrepresentative of reality.

  • ding dong

    a wile melee,

    have to agree, from what i’ve seen Simpson has a good operation in Portadown, but by the same token during the Euro election the DUP had hardly any workers on the ground in Upper Bann.

    Equally a lot of Simpson’s support remains with him as he plays the sceptic card once the DUP sign up to P&J David Simpson has a big choice to make. On the evidence of his supposed non support for St Andrews and yet signing up to the current arrangements he doesn’t appear politcally a risk taker. So if he stays his core support will shrink even further

  • Drumlins Rock

    could we have a Lurgan V Portadown fight in the election? lol, I have to say the DUP workers were quite sheepish on the ground during the Euros, the last week has bound to have made most of them hide altogether, no party can afford to lose its on the ground workers, maybe the will be out agian by the GE, but if the rumours are right maybe they might disappear completely underground!

  • Harry J

    how many DUPs voted UUP in order to keep the TUV from winning the seat?

  • Harry J

    David Vance has gone quiet on whether or not elected representatives should publish their expenses…or is it just Jim ALlisters that should not be fully published? ANy chance of a real answer David

  • pinni

    Ding Dong: ‘the TUV want to damage the DUP’

    Says it all, doesn’t it?

    I agree, Ding Dong, that is the sole purpose of the TUV. That is why the TUV are going nowhere. Nothing positive to offer.

    Granted, they probably will ‘damage’ the DUP, but it will be either the UUP or SF who will gain. The TUV will always be a stubborn little runt of a party with nothing to offer and whose only goal is to harm others. How inspiring!

  • union mack

    I grew up and was schooled in the North Antrim area. I’m no fan of the DUP, but despite sizeable resentment at recent DUP actions, they will still come through in a Westminster election. The CU’s wont make any significant dent in the DUP vote up here, they have not had a real base here for 40 years. It probably will be reasonably close, perhaps 3000 votes, but if Allister doesn’t win the seat, I believe the TUV will gradually drift off the radar. East Londonderry is a different story, with a swing to both the UUP and TUV, David McClarty (if selected) could well be on the way to Westminster. It’s gonna be the most interesting Westminster election in a long time

  • David McClarty (if selected) could well be on the way to Westminster

    David McClarty didn’t put himself forward.

  • union mack

    ah, that clears that up then. who are the potentials?

  • Paul

    #

    I grew up and was schooled in the North Antrim area. I’m no fan of the DUP, but despite sizeable resentment at recent DUP actions, they will still come through in a Westminster election. The CU’s wont make any significant dent in the DUP vote up here, they have not had a real base here for 40 years. It probably will be reasonably close, perhaps 3000 votes, but if Allister doesn’t win the seat, I believe the TUV will gradually drift off the radar. East Londonderry is a different story, with a swing to both the UUP and TUV, David McClarty (if selected) could well be on the way to Westminster. It’s gonna be the most interesting Westminster election in a long time
    Posted by union mack on Jan 15, 2010 @ 01:55 PM

    I totally agree good post.

  • Drumlins Rock

    your funny paul, lol

  • Paul, who do you reckon will be your own M.P. after the next election?

  • John K Lund / Lllamedos / Suchard

    The CU could possibly win 30 seats in an Assembly Election and target up to 8 in a General Election.The secularist non voters and the loyal UUP voters will combine to rid this Nation of Brown and get rid of the fundies.Normal politics are coming the sectarian headcounts are going out of fashion.

  • Drumlins Rock

    go for it John, we can do it!

    Its sounding less and less crazy by the day.