Craigavon Byelection…

Not much news around about the by election time forgot in Lurgan today, except we have one report at lunchtime that the turnout was about 8-9%… In these wintry conditions it may be lucky to break 20% overall… If you have any details please post them below…

  • Paul

    UUP gain from TUV.I predict

  • Chris Donnelly

    The DUP will be quite relieved they decided to sit this one out. If I’m right, though, there’ll be a couple of byelections to come- in Castlereagh and Lisburn. Those’ll be worth watching.

  • Mark McGregor

    Chris,

    It’d be a dirty dog that didn’t let the SDLP have the cooption in Killultagh

  • Paul

    #

    The DUP will be quite relieved they decided to sit this one out. If I’m right, though, there’ll be a couple of byelections to come- in Castlereagh and Lisburn. Those’ll be worth watching.
    Posted by Chris Donnelly on Jan 13, 2010 @ 04:23 PM

    Well those be copted by the sitting parties to avoid the costs of by elections??.Back to this thread the TUV will lose there seat even on a very low turnout and they have thrown the kitchen sink at this they coudnt even hold there seat.

  • Paul

    The problem for the TUV they had a very poor candidate and they havnt really got anybody else bar allister.The poor standard of the TUV mob will effect them come future elections one only has to look at the antics of the TUV one of its members petioned for the release of torrens knight the ruthless sectarian loyalist killer.The TUV are a very unsavoury bunch to put it midly.Another recent addition david vance another one who rants and raves and has nothing to offer any of us.The TUV are a sectarian party and they have the whiff of bigotry about them.

  • Kilwaughter

    Is there an age limit for posting comments on slugger? (whistles furtively)

  • Panic, these ones like it up em.

    so long as they are old enough to “whistle furtively”

  • I know the DUP has suddenly lost its fondness for elections. I know that the ‘waste of money’ argument is thrown about every time democracy threatens to assert itself. But if there is no by-election in Castlereagh there is something badly wrong.

  • Paul

    #

    Is there an age limit for posting comments on slugger? (whistles furtively)
    Posted by Kilwaughter on Jan 13, 2010 @ 04:48 PM

    Right I see I have hit a nerve fact the TUV will lose this election would you agree.???So whos the grown up one now hey with the childish comments above hey truth hurts.Does it this will be a UUP gain from TUV fact.Care to comment on the election result when it comes and confirms the TUV have lost yet again

  • Mick Fealty

    I think they’ll give you that one Chekov… It’s a PR own goal either way…

  • Paul

    #

    so long as they are old enough to “whistle furtively”
    Posted by Panic, these ones like it up em. on Jan 13, 2010 @ 04:50 PM

    care to discuss the fact this will be a UUP gain from TUV???.and the fact this is the 3rd election the TUV have contested losing all 3 elections.

  • Sam Semple

    Did the TUV ever kick out that bloke campaiging for Torrens Knight’s release?

    I suspect not.

    In fact I suspect they didn’t even discipline him.

    Talk about cosying up with terrorists Jim Allister!! Hahaha!

    What’s that smell Jim?

    Hypocrisy?

  • villager
  • Blue Hammer

    Paul

    As i have commented elsewhere, why make a big thing of ONE member of the TUV trying to secure the release of ONE mass-murderer, when the SDLP, UUP, SF, APNI and all the rest (latterly now joined by the DUPes) campaigned for ALL the mass-murderers to be freed?

    Double standards I fear.

    I for one think Torrens Knight should be held accountable for his crimes by means of incarceration for life, as with all the paramilitary murderers. Can you say the same? Or are you okay with Sean Kelly walking the streets? Or anyone other than Knight?

  • Drumlins Rock

    just to lets you know we are more civilised out west in Dungannon, on Monday evening the council agreed to co-op on a new UUP member to replace the late Norman Badger, I think it was as much out of respect for his memory as a desire to save money, the DEA he was in had 4 SF 1SDLP and one UUP councilor, so was more or less SFs for the taking.

  • socaire

    It doesn’t hurt to have friends in the UUP. At least they can civilly pass the time of day with Sinn Féin.

  • Sammy Morse

    Not just in the west Drumlins – in Belfast it’s been 15 years since the last by-election, and the same is true in a growing number of councils across NI.

  • slug

    Is the count this evening or tomorrow morning?

  • Garza

    Has anyone actually got any news on this by-election rather than the bickering?

    Is it any bother for exit polls to be introduced in NI politics, althought I suppose a Craigavan by-election would be stretching the limits of exit polls lol.

  • Paul

    #

    Is the count this evening or tomorrow morning?
    Posted by slug on Jan 13, 2010 @ 07:26 PM

    I heard it was tomorrow morning.And for all these TUV no hopers on here it will be a UUP gain from your beloved TUV.LMAO

  • Chris – which party would be small minded enough to call for a by-election in Lisburn? Under the circumstances, I can’t see any of the parties being that petty. They can’t go the man’s funeral and then try and veto co-opting someone from his colleague?

  • Oh my baby darling

    paul,

    What will you do if TUV win?

    Are you shocked that Gerry is still President of SF?

  • Paul

    #

    paul,

    What will you do if TUV win?

    Are you shocked that Gerry is still President of SF?
    Posted by Oh my baby darling on Jan 13, 2010 @ 07:38 PM

    I am very confident that the result will be a UUP gain from TUV.As for your question regarding Gerry adams I think it is a disgrace that Gerry adams is still leader of SF not shocked at all this is gerry adams we are talkng about.The man has told blantant public untruths and there is a strong whiff off a cover up in what is a child abuse case.The arrest warrant wont belong until its ready to arrest his brother then the spotlight will shift where it should of being anyway back on GA who should of resigned weeks ago.anyway back to the thread topic

  • Moderators

    Just because Mick is offline don’t think the rule book is dropped. ‘Ball not man’ please.

  • Oh my baby darling

    paul,

    hear, hear: excellent summation. Which of Adams’ blantant public untruths, in your view, is most sickening?

    Also, I’d be eternally grateful if you could, please sir, provide your guess as to the winner of each of Northern Ireland’s 18 Westminster constituencies in the forthcoming elections.

  • Paul

    aul,

    hear, hear: excellent summation. Which of Adams’ blantant public untruths, in your view, is most sickening?

    Also, I’d be eternally grateful if you could, please sir, provide your guess as to the winner of each of Northern Ireland’s 18 Westminster constituencies in the forthcoming elections.
    Posted by Oh my baby darling on Jan 13, 2010 @ 08:10 PM

    I will stick to this by election which is the topic for debate if you want a thread about the 18 seats and my opinion who will win the seats start a thread off.The by election I predict a UUP gain from the TUV.With the UUP out polling the TUV quite easily on a low turn out.

  • Oh my baby darling

    But paul, my good man, what in heaven’s name will you do if your by-election prediction is wrong? I honestly don’t know what I’d do give the strength and conviction of your recent analysis.

    I’ve just gone and put a £500 bet on the UUP taking this seat on the strength of your opinion: will you help me out if I lose?

  • anne warren

    “the turnout was about 8-9%… In these wintry conditions it may be lucky to break 20% overall”…

    I accept these estimates which prompted a question. I wonder if anyone could let me know whether a minimum percentage turnout is needed? What percentage of the electorate has to vote for the election to be considered valid? Or is there no minimum? Thanks to anyone who knows

  • Chris Donnelly

    Mark and Alan

    Can’t see Sinn Fein opposing a co-option in Killultagh- nor Alliance- but, from what I remember, Cecil Calvert once refused to allow a co-option for Lisburn; given he’s now TUV that party might feel like dipping its toes in the water in the area.

  • belfast greyhound

    When do we get the result??
    Tonight or the long drawn out tomorrow??

  • According to the EONI documentation, the count starts in the morning, Thursday 14 at 9am in the Lakeview Road Civic Centre.

  • joeCanuck

    Anne,
    No minimum.
    I quite liked the system they introduced in Russia after their empire collapsed (perhaps still do); one of the selections was/is “none of the above”. If that tops the poll, new election and the previous candidates were/are excluded from running.

  • union mack

    should be counted by half 9 then

  • Sammy Morse

    UUP gain from TUV.I predict

    Is there a difference these days?

  • Seems like the UUP is set for a comfortable win. Allister has already conceded defeate.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Just for interest here are the last local election results, thanks to http://www.ark.ac.uk

    2005 Results
    DUP & SF gain from from UUP & SDLP

    First Count:
    Samuel Gardiner, (UUP) 2109
    Stephen Moutray, (DUP) 2059
    Fergie Dawson, (DUP) 1101
    George Savage, (UUP) 803
    Maurice Magill, (SF) 734
    Francis McAlinden, (SDLP) 633
    David Calvert, (Ind) 626
    Sydney Cairns, (UUP) 582
    Meta Crozier, (UUP) 434
    Anne Harrison, (DUP) 373
    Mark Russell, (DUP) 314

    Votes by Party:
    UUP: 3,928 (40.2%), 3 seats
    DUP: 3,847 (39.4%), 3 seats
    SF: 734 (7.5%), 1 seat
    SDLP: 633 (6.5%)
    Ind: 626 (6.4%)
    Electorate: 15,320; seats: 7; votes cast: 9,939; spoilt votes: 171 (1.8%);
    valid votes: 9,768 (98.2%); quota: 1,222

  • Garza

    TUV, 3 elections, 0 wins. That good record keeps on coming.

    Congrats to Jo-anne Dobson, I’m sure she will be an excellent councillor for Craigavon. Not bad on the eyes either lol.

  • Drumlins Rock

    I know you cant judge things by a small and basically predicable bi-election, but it can give us a few indicators, expect a low turnout of course, but just how low, will all the DUP voters jsut stay at home? (or chose to vote for one of the other and thereby creating a bad habbit?) will nationalists just stay at home too? apathy is their biggest risk at the next election, almost as bad a habit as allowing your voters to go elsewhere!
    Geekish I know but even a wee election like this is fun, one final factor, was Jo-Ann bight pink frilly blouse a vote winner or not?

  • Paul

    TUV were hammered here is an indication of the votes

    TUV no elected representatives contested 3 elections and lost all 3 LMAO couldnt happen to a nicer bunch

    UUP romp home in Craigavon by-election
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    UUP candidate Jo-Anne Dobson
    UUP candidate Jo-Anne Dobson
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    Published Date:
    14 January 2010
    By Sam McBride
    INITIAL reports from the Craigavon by-election suggest that the UUP has polled very strongly.
    The election, in which the DUP did not run, has had a very low turnout of about 23 percent.

    Initial UUP tallies, which have an error margin of up to 10 percent, show that Ulster Unionist candidate Jo-Anne Dobson polled about 2,600 votes.

    Mrs Dobson, who works as an assistant to Conservative and Unionist MP Jim Nicholson, canvassed widely with UUP leader Sir Reg Empey, Health Minister Michael McGimpsey and Conservative Shadow Secretary of State Owen Paterson.

    TUV candidate David Calvert has polled about 830 votes.

    A controversial figure locally, Mr Calvert was joined on the campaign trail by party leader Jim Allister and former senior UKUP member David Vance, who joined the TUV last week.

    Sinn Fein received about 320 votes while the SDLP polled around 200 votes.

    Speaking to the News Letter from the count centre, TUV leader Jim Allister said that he was not surprised at the UUP win as the ward was a stauch UUP area.

    “I congratulate them on their win,” he said.

    “I am pleased that we have retained our share of the unionist vote which we established in the European election.”

    The official result is expected to be announced around midday.

    The Lurgan ward returned six unionists – three DUP and three UUP – along with one Sinn Fein member in the 2005 council election.

    The tallies, conducted by Bill White – a UUP member whose company, LucidTalk, conducts polling for the UUP and other political parties – said that the tally results, based on 60 votes from each polling box, were generally very accurate.

    “Usually these predictions are accurate to within about five or 10 percent,” he said.

    Page 1 of 1

    * Last Updated: 14 January 2010 11:26 AM

  • > The tallies, conducted by Bill White – a UUP member whose company, LucidTalk, conducts polling for the UUP and other political parties

    Probably the only company in NI which isn’t discoverable on Google!

  • Garza

    Jo-Anne Dobson (UUP) 2,494 votes (63.9%)
    David Calvert (TUV) 752 votes (19.2%)
    Liam Mackle (SF) 401 votes (10.2%)
    Pat McDade (SDLP) 256 votes (6.5%)

    * Not taking in account of independent or spoiled votes.

  • Paul

    Congratulations to Jo-Anne Dobson

  • Mark McGregor

    Excellent for the UUP, 20% isn’t a bad sign for the TUV, pretty good for SF (they are up from 7.5%) and yet again a treading water performance from the SDLP as 6.5% is the same as previously in the ward.

  • Drumlins Rock

    you cant go on the percentages mark as possibly say 30% of the electorate are DUP voters and they stayed at home, just try to work here roughly what the percentages were last time minus the DUP, might be a bit closer.

  • Mark McGregor

    DR,

    A rough adjustment would have them at 17% using your 30% stay at home. They would be getting a seat in the ward in a normal election. Not too shabby.

  • Mark McGregor

    DR,

    I’d also suggest a lot of the DUP vote has gone to boost the UUP % not stayed at home.

  • Drumlins Rock

    ok, did a couple of quick calculation taking the DUP vote out of the last election, and it was
    UUP 64%, Calvert 10%(was independant then), SF 12% and SDLP 10%.

    Note that Calverts total vote has only went up 126 votes with the backing of the whole TUV and the scandals behind him.

  • Garza

    EamonnMallie Ulster Unionists’ tails are up after their result In the Craiavon by-election. Get ready for more by-elections!

    https://twitter.com/EamonnMallie

    I freakin love elections!

  • Mark McGregor

    DR,

    You calculations and any attempt to factor the DUP absence is impossible. We cannot know how many DUP voters went UUP in an anti-TUV move. This can’t be done beyond noting there is a TUV vote out there, it probably would return councillors and the SDLP are still flagging way behind SF.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Would agree they do stand a good chance of a seat next time Mark, at the DUPs expense, even with a “poor” candidate according to some, if they keep even those voters they have a good shot at it.

  • Drumlins Rock

    I agree mark, but it is still better than a straight comparison, and as I mentioned earlier its a bad habit to give your voters allowing them to vote for the other party! But I bet they are very glad they didnt stand after the last week, as for the TUV I think they would have hoped for more of the DUP vote to come to them, remember the DUP polled nearly 4000 votes the last time, surely they should have won over more than 126 of those in the light of all that has happened?

  • Mrazik
  • Paul

    ut the TUV claimed its performance showed its level of support in the unionist community remained solid.

    Press Association

    The TUV can say what ever they like but the result is the TUV have lost.The TUV have lost a council seat which by the way was never a TUV seat in the first place.Allister claims he has support of a third of unionists rubbish.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Its not a great result for the TUV, yes they were always going to lose but surely they should have at least hit 4 figures to be taken serious, its is clear from this tiny sample that there has been no massive DUP-TUV swing, but there has probably been some swing to the UUP, with the vast majority of DUP voters probably staying at home, will they continue to stay at home? will the swingers swing back once again? but as yet there is no big swing to the TUV.
    P.S. it would seem that SF were able to turn out their vote quite well, albeit only 400 voters, its gonig to be a hard one to read for the elections coming up.

  • Paul

    #

    Its not a great result for the TUV, yes they were always going to lose but surely they should have at least hit 4 figures to be taken serious, its is clear from this tiny sample that there has been no massive DUP-TUV swing, but there has probably been some swing to the UUP, with the vast majority of DUP voters probably staying at home, will they continue to stay at home? will the swingers swing back once again? but as yet there is no big swing to the TUV.
    P.S. it would seem that SF were able to turn out their vote quite well, albeit only 400 voters, its gonig to be a hard one to read for the elections coming up.
    Posted by Drumlins Rock on Jan 14, 2010 @ 02:07 PM

    Good post i agree the TUV result was not good they had the whole of there so called TUV machine to throw at it and still got thrashed and no DUP candidate in the feild either.Dont forget at the gen election.If the TUV stand which they are mad enough to it will almost certaintly mean a sinn fein gain.Great way of promoting the union hey TUV handing the seat to sinn fein

  • Panic, these ones like it up em.

    So the TUV are not the new “Mesiah” yet.

    Opportunity knocks for the UUP. Is Reg up to the job ?

  • Drumlins Rock

    sounds like Davy Simpson should be worried then Paul?

    last westminister results-

    David Simpson (DUP) 16,679 (37.6% )
    David Trimble (UUP) 11,281 (25.5% )
    John O’Dowd (SF) 9,305 (21.0%)
    Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,747 (13.0%)
    Alan Castle (Alliance) 955 (2.2%)
    Tom French (WP) 355 (0.8%)

  • ding dong

    Great result for the UUP – and congratulations to their candidate . but the real story is the TUV vote.

    Spread that 750 across the constituency of Upper Bann, provide a better TUV candidate and a better turnout and the TUV has a solid 6 – 7,000 votes.

    Accepting that these mainly came for the DUPs & accepting there will be a swing to the UUPs, Upper Bann becomes a real target seat for UCUNF.

    General under estimation of the Damage the TUV can do to the DUP has always been the problem in recent elections. The recent irisgate, the potential of more revelation at the weekend and the agreeing of P&J will further weaken an already damaged DUP.

    THe TUV don’t need good results they need consistant results and this one is consistant.

    Simpson will be the next casualty – as Ian Paisley jnr said lately – wait till I get my coat!

  • Paul

    #

    Great result for the UUP – and congratulations to their candidate . but the real story is the TUV vote.

    Spread that 750 across the constituency of Upper Bann, provide a better TUV candidate and a better turnout and the TUV has a solid 6 – 7,000 votes.

    Accepting that these mainly came for the DUPs & accepting there will be a swing to the UUPs, Upper Bann becomes a real target seat for UCUNF.

    General under estimation of the Damage the TUV can do to the DUP has always been the problem in recent elections. The recent irisgate, the potential of more revelation at the weekend and the agreeing of P&J will further weaken an already damaged DUP.

    THe TUV don’t need good results they need consistant results and this one is consistant.

    Simpson will be the next casualty – as Ian Paisley jnr said lately – wait till I get my coat!
    Posted by ding dong on Jan 14, 2010 @ 04:08 PM

    Sorry but the TUV vote was not the story at all so stop spinning there was no DUP candidate.The TUV lost a council seat the result means a UUP gain from TUV fact.Wait until the TUV are streched on the ground and some of there other poor candidates stand. I cant wait for those results either.This ws an excellent result for the UUP and for positive unionism.A crushing defeat for nothing to offer us dinaurs TUV.LMAO

  • Paul

    #

    sounds like Davy Simpson should be worried then Paul?

    last westminister results-

    David Simpson (DUP) 16,679 (37.6% )
    David Trimble (UUP) 11,281 (25.5% )
    John O’Dowd (SF) 9,305 (21.0%)
    Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,747 (13.0%)
    Alan Castle (Alliance) 955 (2.2%)
    Tom French (WP) 355 (0.8%)
    Posted by Drumlins Rock on Jan 14, 2010 @ 03:58 PM

    YES I think you are right simpson will be worried about losing his seat to sinn fein its going to be between three parties in upper bann DUP UUP or Sinn fein.If the TUV stands the vote will split three ways its almost certain Sinn fein will then win the upper bann seat.So I would sy the TUV are Sinn feins buddies in all of this sinn fein must be urging in the background for the TUV to stand a candidate in the gen election.The TUV are mad enough to stand such is there mentality and hand the seat to sinn fein