Downhill racing for the Lisbon Yes camp?

One of the big stories of the next few months should be the referendum campaign over the Lisbon Treaty. Double carpet at Political Betting includes it in his predictions for the Autumn. It’s to be a win for the Yes side:

with Ireland’s economy collapsing and with concessions being made on touchstone issues to Irish voters, it looks as though Ireland will reverse 2008’s decision and vote “Yes”, opting for the perceived safety blanket of the EU in difficult times.

It should be a win for the yes team, since even Libertas indicated its ambivalence in the government’s deal (which although, aside from the guarantee of an Irish commissioner, is largely meaningless, it has effectively blocked any easy targets for the ‘opposition’) in backing off the campaign leaving a divided Sinn Fein as the only significant party against it. In the run up to the campaign the national mind will be trained towards a tough budget and the amelioration of the extravagant cuts proposed by the McCarthy committee (or An Bord Snip Nua, or as the Phoenix has it An Bord Bulldozer)… For which the Irish government no doubt expect a grateful public will trot dutifully into the Tá lobby…

To lose at this stage would be something rather more than carelessness…

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty