Eyes south

While the European election tallies are as useless in the south as those in the north the Council counts are in full flow (RTE coverage).

Mick has the live blog set up but it is not much use as a conversational space for Slugger as the excellent Twitter feed is swamping any of our comments.

At present FF and the Greens are the clear losers dropping 8.5% and 1.1% nationally to 23.3% and 2.8% and shedding Councillors at a staggering rate. Labour and FG are the main beneficiaries up 6.6% and 4.3% to 18% and 32%.

SF certainly don’t seem to have attracted any benefit from the scene changing, while a radical left party like People Before Profit (Socialist Workers Party front) has manged 4 seats.

SF’s vote is currently down nearly 0.5% to 7.7% and surprisingly one of their higher profile reps outside the Dail, Daithi Doolan, has lost his seat.

  • west belfast

    IWSMNWDI

    When I said the Dublin base collapsed when the party supported policing I meant the infrastructure of the party in Dublin collapsed – the party activists left.

    That wont be rebuilt overnight.

    Its not a spectacular result for SF but there are reasons to be optimistic outside the Dublin vote. If Mary Lou gets through then SF can look forward to the next general election with cautious optimism.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Reader,

    If Stormo is collapsed then the dissers will be delighted as will the TUV – the way to avoid that scenario is to build on the progress made to date.

    Both tail/nettle/extremes – the 1% and the 10% – should be ignored.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    west belfast,

    re. police – ta, that makes sense.

    I know these are strange days indeed, but SF beating FF in Dublin, if it happens, just seems spectacular to me.

  • fin

    Bill, republicanism is international, and they exist in decent numbers in GB aswell as elsewhere, Irish republicanism does not start and end with the removal of the border, Irish republicanism is about establishing a republic across the island of Ireland, just as republican movements elsewhere wish the same for their countries.

    I’ll actually stand up for the working class unionist, before a certain preacher whipped them into a anti-catholic frency both sides of the working class communities were building bridges and talking to each other, and in later years this continued in the prisons, people like Gusty Spence come to mind.

    I’ll not bite on the prisoner releases, terrorism and politicans involved in terrorism in government is a bit of a blind spot for unionism, and they see it as purely happening on our side of the fence, ditto for prisoner releases, nationalists bit their lips aswell, seeing the people who murdered their kith and kin walking free. It was easier for nationalists to stomach because so many people who committed ctimes against nationalists never went to prison or never would. But neither Trimble or unionism can claim any part of that one, it was done in London.

  • Bill

    Sammy,

    And part of that building on the progress will be a negotiation and developing relationship. Falling out or walking off shouldn’t even be on the agenda but doing whatever it takes to help out your ‘partner’ in government definitely should be.

    Surely that’s real (grown up) politics? I’ll scratch your back, if you scratch mine.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Bill,

    absolutely. But the ‘back scratching’ phase has to give way to the ‘doing’ phase and thats where we are now. We dont want Robbo and Marty having to get the shirts off again and start the scratching all over agian.

  • dublinsfsupporter

    FIRST COUNT: Eoin on 55k 1st pref votes, Mary-Lou on 50k and Higgins on 48k on first count.

    This is excellent news for Mary Lou who will pick up transfers from Greens Libertas etc. If Eoin or Higgins eliminated before her she is in.

  • west belfast

    Dublin SF

    All to play for but if these are correct its gonna be awful tight!

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    dublinsfsupporter,

    we are holding you personally responsible if she fecks up now.

  • dublinsfsupporter

    CORRECTION:

    Quota is 101,000 –
    De Rossa on 95, 000,
    Mitchell on 95,000,
    Ryan on 55,000
    joe higgins on 50,000,
    MaryLou McDonald on 48,000
    byrne on 19,000

    Still good for MLM.

  • Mark McGregor

    Some reports that Higgins is ahead of MLM. Original figures may have been wrong way round.

  • dublinsfsupporter

    elimination of simons should bump MCDonald over higgins – good news for MLM. But elim of McKenna and De Burca are critical issues. Overall MLM still has the edge over other candidates.

  • dublinsfsupporter

    42k votes to distribute so all to play for.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    42k votes to distribute so all to play for.

    oh dear

  • Bill

    fin, while I appreciate your explanation of a republicanism (do I really come across so stupid that I required that?) I still don’t see how that suddenly turns a loyalist who votes SDLP/SF for political reasons into a republican.

    With the prisoners issue I think you misunderstand my point. You asked had unionist given everything only through Dublin/London. Regardless of their involvement with paramilitaries, main stream unionist parties would have preferred to leave the prisoners who were in prison, inside prison. That didn’t happen. And those negotiations were certainly not done anywhere near London, even if it still had to be passed there.

    Sammy,
    start the scratching I’d say not. But going back and saying, ‘If you really want this to happen you’re going to have to help us out. Otherwise we aren’t going to be able to sell it’ is the reality as I see it. They will have to have every bit of this perfect from start to finish, else TUV will be increasing their vote share significantly!

  • fin

    Bill, never my intention to treat you as a amadan, however the SDLP aside unless you’re voting for a republican party for tactical reasons than yes politically you’re a republican (however, thats just my view)

    Regarding the prisoners, I agree unionist politicans would have left them in prison, if they could have, which was my point, in the end it wasn’t their choice/decision

    But to be honest Bill, you and I will never agree on issues like these, and as they’re in the past should we really be stratching those wounds.

    To butt in on another conversation, what are the thoughts of you and yours on P&J in the new political landscape, do the DUP have the bottle for it?

    If it was to happen, my arguement until now was that the Stoops might get it, would you be happy with a nationalist in the post?

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Bill,

    touch of the circular arguements going on now.

    But fiddly bits could be tweaked for sure – but nothing substantive – time for that well gone. DUP have delayed so long that now they are now saying we cant do it now because we have delayed so long – and it looks tactical. Dont think that will or should wash. Next move if Robbo and Deputy Dodsy dont do anything should be from SOS.

    Guess SF didnt get Dublin seat or we would be hearing whooping and hollerin and I could log on to Paddy Power the Papist Predictor and get my winnings.

  • dublinsfsupporter

    Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Sinn Féin never expected to get the Dublin seat. That was too big an ask given the fact that the number of seats had fallen from 4 to 3. Mary Lou was amazing, however, in that she came so close. These are excellent foundations to have laid as we build the party for the next elections in the 26 counties. Note that Sinn Féin’s 26county euro vote share has increased compared to last time. As did Sinn Féin’s position in the two bye elections in Dublin. And the vote share in the locals held firm, and growing in many areas. So all in all a good set of results.

  • borden

    I think you’ll find that the so called break through has yet to happen in the south. Remember, this was a set of elections perfect for a left wing party like SF. But after having been squeezed in 2007 for Dail Eireann, they are about to be squeezed again. Still pretty vote repellant in the 26 counties!!

  • Bill

    Quick response….nationalist wouldn’t bother me. Turns my stomach seeing some of the people in power, on both sides, but really I’m over all that and we just have to get on with it. However I doubt the same could be said for the broad protestant, unionist, loyalist community. It’s going to have to be Alliance or an independent, and whoever does it has to have no historical baggage. If they have ever so much as sworn at someone in anger then we better find someone else. George Mitchell anyone?!

    Getting the right balances, securities etc. in place are more important than the nationalist/unionist issues e.g. a stalemate like that in education just wouldn’t do in P&J.

  • LURIG

    Sinn Fein really need to ask themselves why they are not making real inroads in the South. If ever the time was ripe this was it. I spend a lot of time in the South and honestly the Troubles went over the heads of most of the people there. Sinn Fein just don’t have the whiff of sulphur that they do in the North and are looked on as another party. Irish Nationalism was diluted big time during the Celtic Tiger and there are parties like Labour and independents like Joe Higgins who people trust more. I believe that Sinn Fein have hit a ceiling in the South that they will never get through. The North and sectarian politics might as well be on the other side of the moon the way most Southerners think.

  • fin

    Noble of you Bill, I think poor Mitchell would be mad to return.

    LURIG, SF is a strange one, between elections people queue up to tell them how crap they are and then at election time its all disappointment because they should have done better.

    Not sure regarding you thinking on how Southerners think, various crimes in NI attributed to SF get plenty of media attention in the South as did the GFA, and Bertie dined of the peace talks fora long time.

    Possibly Southerners know more than you think, SF always suffer a lack of transfers, it is a bit stupid in both Ireland and GB to see voters swing over and back between left and right wing parties, its a bigger decision to vote republian.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Sammy:

    Man dear, does your back never get sore from carrying that chip on the shoulder?

    No, latcheeco is an American attempting to make it look as if he knows what he is talking about by trying to talk in a way that he thinks the locals do.

  • Reader

    Sammy: If Stormo is collapsed then the dissers will be delighted as will the TUV – the way to avoid that scenario is to build on the progress made to date.
    So that’s settled then. No walkouts, whatever happens?

  • Greagoir O Frainclin

    What a superb kick in the arse for FF and the Greens. Biffo on the run. He must be the most unsuccessful Taoiseach the Republic has ever had. Never judge a book by the cover, so the saying goes, but I always had my reservations about the man as such words always come to mind to when I see his mug ….oafish, charmless, humourless, culchie, ingnorant, stubborn, cranky etc…However an ideal candidate for the north, in particularly the DUP had he been born on the other side of the fence.

    If the sleeveen Greens had any gumption they pull out of government and give us an election.

    BTW, SF performance was just average across the board. Joe Higgins might take the euro seat from Mary Lou.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Greagoir O Frainclin,

    Have no time for FF myself but then FG would have been no better having not spotted the fact that the big hungry recessionary elephant in the living room was just sbout to snack on the declining Celtic Tiger.

    There is a chance, just as in Britain, that the prime minsiterail incumbents might now do the right thing for their country knowing that unpopularity is laready with them. An election in either country is not in either countrys interest.

  • fin

    Greagoir O Frainclin, as a Culchie I’m offended, calling him a BIFFO would have been enough

    Sammy, if FF were smart they’d call an election and let someone else clean up the mess and be unpopular, they dropped hints tonight (its also mentioned on politics.ie) about another round of nasty tax hikes.

    Anyone see Rory Bremner tonight, it was very funny

  • OC

    In short, I am certainly willing to be for it (ILA). Right now, I just don’t understand it and would like to so that I can make a more informed decision.

    Posted by Bill on Jun 07, 2009 @ 03:54 PM

    TY for your gracious and candid reply.

    NI needs more folk like you.