Election rumours, odds and sods..

This is a kind of open thread… I’d advise people to take what passes below as rumour until proven… but it’s a opportunity to share whispers gossip and general chat about how things are going inside in the verification process… I’ll start with one that should be taken with some salt… Allister is said to be polling well in Lagan Valley… with one unsubstantiated rumour that he’s pushed the DUP into third in one box… I’ve no idea which box, or where, but I’d probably guess Finis/Dromara direction… Just remember that extrapolation from rumour is dangerous!!

  • IJP

    Mick

    Can I just begin by thanking you, and the Slugger crew, for their election coverage?

    I largely stayed clear of Slugger during the campaign, for lack of time if nothing else; nevertheless, I was and remain keenly aware it provides an outstanding forum for alternative debate; and it is done on a largely voluntary basis.

    For those who placed kind comments about my campaign – thank you. For those who didn’t – I know where you live…

  • jone

    Privately the DUP are admitting it was a disastrous campaign…they were swamped by expenses, the Robinsons food bill was a big factor and their candidate was at times “embarrassing.”

  • SDLP in Derry reportedly quite happy with the area profile of the turnout. Their vote appears to be out while Sinn Fein heads were not too busy having to hand out sample ballots. DUP vote in Derry down. More over on http://northbynorthwestblog.wordpress.com/

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    What % postive Nationlaist turnout differntial is required for Alban to be in the frame for 3rd seat, assuming SF top the poll and 50% split in Greens and Alliances transfers.

  • Welcome back IJP . This place ain’t the same without you. But one more Alliance optimist about here may depress others. Important question – will you still post Alliance propaganda here shud u get elected as an M.E.P.? The Ulster voting public has a rite 2 no.

  • Sammy,

    My mathematics, based on demography and so on, estimates that the Nationalists would require a turnout 6% higher than the unionists in order that a nationalist won a second seat.

    It also assumes that overall “tribal headcount” voting patterns continue. I think they will this time around – even though I put down Maginnis as my No. 2 vote.

  • Cynic

    I noticed yesterday that the polling stations around my area were crawling with MLA’s handing out leaflets. I also suspect that the Kings Hall will be full of them today and Monday with their clipboards and laptops, for those who know how to operate them. Since they get a salary to serve their constituents will they hand back a few days pay at the end of the month for the time they were working on purely party business?

    Must say that the election day activity let me see that my DUP MLA’s were still alive. I watch out for them on every broadcast from the Stormont Chamber but they seem never to be there. I would have thought that they would get fed up playing solitaire or whatever else passes for a days work and put the odd appearance in during a debate!

  • J Kelly

    NBNW
    i don’t know were you are getting your info from but I can tell you that Sinn Fein in Foyle are happy with the performance yesterday, I sat in a booth yesterday for two hours and in a box that the SDLP would be expecting at least 60/40 split in their favour and I can tell you that of those voting, even though it was slow the majority were voting sinn fein and thats the sense of the pattern across the constituency. voting well down but sinn fein happy that a higher percentage of the vote out.

  • Killian

    The SDLP got their vote out in South Belfast, key SDLP boxes over 50% turnout. Sinn Féin struggled to get their vote out in South Armagh. Turnout was historically low there. Jim Nicholson is apparently in very deep water. My estimation is that he will finish 5th place.

  • “Sinn Féin struggled to get their vote out in South Armagh”

    Nonsense, compared to other parties our vote was well out.

  • fin

    Last chance for a bit of blagging before the count is done and the truth is known.

    It also assumes that overall “tribal headcount” voting patterns continue. I think they will this time around – even though I put down Maginnis as my No. 2 vote.

    Seymour, I didn’t believe the SDLP when they said they were picking up UCUNF votes, do you know of others in your camp who might have swung over to the Stoops

  • west belfast

    Very much a rumour but ….

    Several boxes from North Antrim opened for verification. Added up to about 2500 papers. Allister had around 900, Nicholson 700 and Dodds 500!! If that is true then this could be fun!!

    Other rumours are SF to top the poll by a large margin (over 5% ahead)! Roll on Monday!

  • a conservative voter

    fin

    stoops came after green & alliance in my transfers but before dup

  • how does this work?

    A question for the STV nerds from my wife:

    If your 1 is eliminated after your 2&3 but your 4 is already over quota – what happens? Do they count:

    A – your 5 as a full vote

    or

    B – your 5 as a fractional surplus of your 4

  • Gael gan Náire

    Well, rumours.

    I have seen no evidence for a SF failure to bring their vote out and SF activists seem very pleased.

    Clearly, a SF fall is predicted in every election, Monday will tell.

    However, some serious political commentators in the media have said that the SDLP have got their vote out well.

    That combined with a strong challenge from the very capable Jim Allister, coupled with the weakness of Jim Nicholson (come up New Forcers, admit it, the election is over anyway) and the disastrous performance of Diane Dodds, you would need to believe the world is 2000 years old not to see it, oh yeah, sorry!

    This these people could see the SDLP getting that third seat.

    I can’t see it.

  • Mark McGregor

    My source says (bucket of salt required):

    TUV outpolling the DUP in the majority of boxes they are covering – mainly North Down, South Down and LV. Possibility Alliance may have taken top position in East Belfast. TUV ecstatic, DUP worried. DUP might not even get third spot. SF storming to top. 2/3s of boxes open more at 5.30pm.

  • Dublin Exile

    question for the STV nerds from my wife:

    ‘If your 1 is eliminated after your 2&3 but your 4 is already over quota – what happens? Do they count:

    A – your 5 as a full vote

    or

    B – your 5 as a fractional surplus of your 4 ‘

    In this case its A. Your no 4 may be over the quota but not with your help, therefore, your next valid vote is for 5.

  • fin

    thanks conservative voter, this looking interesting, New Blue, whenever you’re about,did you show a bit of love for the stoops?

    in hindsight wish I had backed Alban at 7\1, is there anyone who stuck the house on Dodds at silly odds hoping for a small return on a banker, but is now feeling nervous?

    anyone feeling brave enough to start doing predictions again on what we know,

  • The Big Man

    Anybody think JA will top the Unionist poll?

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    have bet on Alban the unhairy, Bairbre to top the poll and MaryLou.

  • Mark McGregor

    Gerry Adams has tweeted a 28% prediction for de Brun. That would give a healthy surplus to go to Maginness.

  • Fin, No. 11

    To be honest, I dont know anybody who was thinking exactly like I was. What I can tell you is that the contempt for the DUP that I have come across amongst UUP supporters is not far short of pathological. My guess is that many of them would transfer the second preference to Allister. The key question is where their third vote goes. My hunch is that Diane Dodds will not have got it.

    My feeling is that if she can not hit the 25% mark on the first go or stop just short of it, she will get very few No 2 votes and she will be in serious trouble.

    I am beginning to think that Allister might have topped the unionist side of the poll. That would be very bad news for Nicholson unless Dodds is so badly mauled that she is in third place. If Dodss only manages 2nd place, I dont think she would get enough votes from Nicholson to win the second seat.

    Of course, it is easy to get caught up in fantasy.

  • Mark McGregor

    Sorry, Adams hasn’t. Mick added it as a suggestion on a RT of Adams comment.

  • whinnery

    From what i hear on the ground, it looks likely that DeBrun will top the poll, with Maginness not too far behind and Allister taking his seat in 3rd.

  • west belfast

    % POLL (TURNOUT)
    BELFAST EAST 38.82
    BELFAST NORTH 40.98
    EAST ANTRIM 34.53
    NORTH DOWN 34.48
    SOUTH ANTRIM 38.03
    STRANGFORD 34.24

  • whinnery

    those results are a very clear indication of how people are feeling about the politicans eh?!

  • fin

    Seymour
    “Of course, it is easy to get caught up in fantasy”

    I actually had a wet dream about Diane last night…..I dreamt she didn’t get elected and wet myself laughing.

  • western polling agent

    Much of the speculation on this page appears very much at odds with my experience at the polls yesterday, in my local station which 2 ; 1 nationalist the turnout was the lowest in living memory but the turnout was much better among unionists around here than nationalists.

    My guess is that Allister and Dodds will get a seat each and De Brun will get elected but she is unlikely to top the poll as the nationalist vote that did come out were less Sinn Fein and more SDLP types. A local SF activist with a long republican history refused to put up posters for them this time due to the police issue.

  • pete Whitcroft

    Did some tallying on the lunch hour.North Down, Strangford and South Antrim.
    Dodds is not doing too good, Allister strong, Nicholson doing grand Parsley also doing well.
    SDLP hard to tell, De Bruin to win, Agnew doing grand in North and South Down.

  • John O’Connell

    J Kelly

    I sat in a booth yesterday for two hours and in a box that the SDLP would be expecting at least 60/40 split in their favour and I can tell you that of those voting, even though it was slow the majority were voting sinn fein and thats the sense of the pattern across the constituency.

    Could it be that you didn’t sit in a booth but sat in a room where there was a booth and were unable to see the vote cast for the most part? Perhaps even at that you may have spent two hours watching those with time on their hands voting?

    What I’m saying is that you couldn’t possibly be able to deduce what you’re saying from the evidence you witnessed. Are you trying to keep Sinn Fein moral up for the big battle next year?

    My sense is that the SDLP vote came out but there are doubts in my mind about the SF vote. That’s after standing at a polling station for 10 hours in Derry city.

  • kensei

    My sense is that the SDLP vote came out but there are doubts in my mind about the SF vote. That’s after standing at a polling station for 10 hours in Derry city.

    Oh Gawd. you weren’t handing out leaflets about Gerry Adams being the devil, were you?

  • John O’Connell

    kensei

    Nothing wrong with that.

  • jeep55

    I wouldn’t write off the UCUNF yet. They were polling solidly in East Belfast and appeared to have got back some of the votes lost to the DUP in Lagan Valley. Seats like Upper Bann and Fermanagh South Tyrone, that traditionally used to have a large number of UUs compared to DUP voters are not validated until this evening. And they have not eaten into the Alliance vote which at worst is holding 2007 Assembly levels and in some places is well above those levels. Alliance look set to have their best Euro percentage poll since Oliver Napier’s 6.8% in 1979. So the DUP are suffering vote erosion from two wings. Allister looks set to be into double figures percentage wise, Nicholson looks to be holding at around 16 -17%, the total U vote will hardly be much above 47% so expect Dodds at about 19%. But after Green and Alliance transfers Nicholson could go ahead of Dodds, and Maginness will likely be ahead of all three unionists. It is going to be a nail biter between Dodds, Nicholson and Maginness for the last two seats and much will depend on how well Allister’s votes have transferred.

  • fin

    Western Polling Agent, to say your call goes against the flow on slugger is an understatement, I guessing (without wishing to be rude) that you’re a hard core DUP supporter, possibly on the fundamentalist/creationalist wing, so I suspect you are relying more on blind faith than anything in your assessment

  • whinnery

    all im saying is that the Politicans are very lucky these are only European Elections and not Local ones.
    If its this difficult to call, the parties have a lot of work to do in order to secure a bit more confidence in the people.

  • fin,

    Very good!

  • fin

    thanks Seymour, and thanks for giving a nationalist your 2nd pref, as I said before unionists like you make me uneasy, I need to find ?? and Reader for a reality check, I wonder how many stoops returned the favour to UCUNF

  • J Kelly

    bbc reporting that babs to top the poll with around 28%. poll of 42%. tuv took sizeable vote from dups. sdlp claiming vote held up still don’t think he has a chance. Mid Ulster 53% highest turnout and strangford 35% bad for nicholson.

    John I was about all day as well and i can tell you that i slept well last night with a good days work done. Monday will tell the tale.

  • unimpressed

    Well I know Agnew got at least 3 first pref votes in my household (North Down)

    I’m interested in the environment but not any sort of fanatic and the other candidates just didn’t seem to offer anything beyond the usual.

    Allister got my 2nd simply because he winds people up and isn’t afraid to get stuck in. He’s about the only one left not willing to sit with SF.

  • Mark McGregor

    From Nicholas Whyte, electoral stat geek 2nd only to Sammy Morse, on Twitter:

    turnout in Nat seats is down 22% from 2007, in Unionist seats by 20% (very roughly).

  • west belfast

    Just listened to Mark Devenport. He suggests
    SF 28%
    DUP 20%
    SDLP 16%
    UUP 15%
    TUV 13%
    AP 7%
    GP 1%

    In my view that would mean SF, DUP and UCUNF elected.

  • USA

    Mark McG,
    I do read his web site stats but I can’t find Nicholas Whyte on Twitter. Any suggestions?

  • redhugh78

    Judging on those percentages of turnout,
    I suspect the more nationalist constituencies west of the Bann will be higher than that.
    I know one polling staion in a majority nationalist area was 54% at close of poll.

  • Reader

    fin: I need to find ?? and Reader for a reality check, I wonder how many stoops returned the favour to UCUNF
    Nicholson, Parsley, Maginnis, Allister. Still never voted DUP. My first vote ever for a nationalist party, though I don’t know if Maginnis will benefit from the transfer.

  • hopper

    I wonder how the 3-way split will affect the next Assembly elections. In North and East Antrim the boundary change will create a nat seat in East Antrim and will leave the unionists fighting for the 2nd nationalist seat in North Antrim. However the split may lead to nationalists retaining 2 seats giving them a +1 gain overall in these 2 areas

  • pete whitcroft

    Reader
    He won’t.
    This election was about whether you put Nicholson or Alban higher on your list.
    Nicholson will scrape in 3rd Alban 4th.

  • fin

    FFS Reader you’re in danger of making me revise my understanding of unionists, next you’ll be telling me you lot don’t actually drink the blood of catholic babies ; )

    interesting polling from you and others on your side of the fence, it looks like the SDLP may have actually picked up a decent% of them’uns votes, is it a moral high ground thing ie look I can vote for a Taig (cos it won’t count) or is there an honest feeling that the SDLP are an ok party (on policies)

    Its UCUNF voters who’ve claimed to have voted SDLP, I’d guess there’s stoops who be happy voting ‘Tory’ I wonder if there’s a love-in on the horizon

  • Fergal_doc

    J Kelly

    Do you have any other tune than “**** SDLP”. Who hurt you?

  • jeep55

    Pete

    On these figures (Mark Devenport) which are very close to my own, except that I put the UUP (UCUNF?) about 1% higher to the detriment of DUP, it is just possible that on transfers that UUP will be be elected ahead of the DUP. Watch out for TUV transfers, which from my indications today were favouring the UUP. Alliance, on a good Euro vote, will keep SDLP and UUP strongly in there right to the last count.

  • Fergal_Doc

    J Kelly

    Everything in Derry SF going OK? Big crowd at Paul Flemming’s Mayor do? Not what I hear. Split in the camp? No doubt you will tell us?

  • Differential turnout – from two posts earlier on Slugger cowpes:

    Yes, there was differential turnout in favour of nationalist candidates – get with the programme, folks, there always is. Alban didn’t just need differential turnout; he needed more differential turnout than normal. I don’t think he got it.

    Here’s the drop in turnout by constituency in comparison with 2007:

    N&A 21.7%
    WT 21.4%
    BE 21.2%
    LV 21.1%
    BW 20.8%
    SA 20.6%
    BS 20.3%
    Str 20.3%
    MU 20.3%
    SD 20.0%
    BN 19.9%
    FST 19.7%
    Foy 19.6%
    ND 19.3%
    UB 19.3%
    EA 19.0%
    ED 18.6%
    NA 18.1%

    There’s a fairly mixed pattern there, but the majority unionist seats are clustering lower down that table (with five right at the bottom); and that matches what we know was happening at a micro level from the figures posted at ballot boxes at 9 p.m. last night. E.g., at 9 p.m. last night, the turnout in Crawfordsburn was the same as in Ardoyne, Gilnahirk was polling 10% better than the Short Strand. I can’t remember the last election that happened. I suspect that’s because it was the Hunger Strike election of 1981, the last still affected by SF abstensionism, which is the earliest election I don’t even have vague childhood memories of.

    Of course, I could be wrong and end up looking very silly on Monday. But I don’t think so.

    Alban also needed Nicholson to be the weakest unionist candidate – some of his transfers were going to Parsley and then dying, and some going to Alban before any other unionist. Not many of the latter, but enough to give him a chance with good transfers from Agnew, Parsley and de Brún. But it looks like Allister is the weakest Unionist (albeit with a depressingly impressive vote) and not that many of his votes were just plumping.

    I’d guess the count will run:

    Stage 1 – SF elected.
    Stage 2 – Agnew and Parsley eliminated, good transfers to Maginness and Nicholson.
    Stage 3 – de Brún surplus; as non-transferrables are discarded before the value of the papers is calculated, there is a very solid transfer to Maginness. The SDLP start to believe again as he surges to 20-21% or so.
    Stage 4 – Allister is eliminated and his transfers elect Dodds and Nicholson, probably both sub-quota.

  • Fergal_doc

    J Kelly

    what a scientific contribution – you are in a booth for 2 hours out of a 15 hour poll, in 1 constituency and you can make a call on the entire election. Using your, ???? you know how the electorate vote, down to the percentages between parties. Impressive.

  • Everything in Derry SF going OK? Big crowd at Paul Flemming’s Mayor do? Not what I hear. Split in the camp? No doubt you will tell us?

    Whatever the internal dissension in Derry SF, I tallied box after box in very ordinary, upper working-class/lower middle-class bits of the West Bank this evening where the SDLP would usually expect a near but clear win but instead de Brún was eking out near but clear wins. Turnout may be down in SF heartlands (noticeably, but not massively more than elsewhere) but I think they made it up in middle-class areas were they either squeked into leads for the first time or cut their traditional gap with the SDLP. Same story from what I saw in Belfast – having tallied fair chunks of Derry, North and South Belfast and Glengormley. SF only slipped a tiny bit in Glengormley, which given their local branch is non-functioning and they’ve done Sweet FA for two years, is a fairly impressive performance for their national brand.

    While this result will cause ructions in the DUP, their vote in the two cities was solid enough (solid 70%+ votes in places like Ballysillan, York/Shore Rd, Drumahoe, Irish Street, the Village), it was the rural areas they had problems in. In the Church of Ireland belt (Lagan Valley/Upper Bann/Newry & Armagh/FST) they lost to Nicholson, while County Antrim/East Derry/Mid Ulster saw the big Allister votes.

    I tallied quite a bit of Lagan Valley, which was much more worrying for the DUP with both Nicholson and Allister polling well (Church of Ireland belt strikes again), although mercifully our vote came out and stayed loyal in a place where it can be a bit flaky.

    I’m going to bed happy tonight. And I’m going to bed.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Sammy,

    its 2 oclock and im psised as a pissed thing but you are a completefecking star.

  • pete whitcroft

    Interesting tallies Sammy.
    I think your right on how the count will go.
    Pity the SF transfers won’t be dished out to Greens and APNI. Would have been worth seeing.

  • Surprising and pleasing how many SF No. 2s were going our way in Greater Belfast, although there was f. a. in Derry; and I wasn’t surprised at the goodly amount heading to youse Greens. But no, I don’t think we’ll see them. Which is to Alban’s benefit (every de Brún 1 Parsley 2 and de Brún 1 Agnew 2 and then stopping was bad news for him; SF plumpers make no difference in this election). But it won’t be enough.

    PS – why did I hear two different SF workers at two different polling stations telling people to vote de Brún 1 and then stop? Haven’t you moved beyond that sort of exclusivist nonsense? Do you actually want to hand seats to Jim Allister in the next council and Assembly elections? You know how STV works so why do it?

  • Killian

    Total votes= 488,880 therefore Quota= 122,220

    1st count
    Sinn Féin – 28% – 136,886 ELECTED
    DUP – 19% – 92,887
    SDLP – 17% – 83,110
    TUV – 16% – 78,220
    UCU – 14% – 68,443
    APNI – 4% – 19,555
    GP – 2% – 9,777

    2nd Count

    SDLP – 83,110 + 14,666 (80% de Brún) + 3,226 (33% Green) = 101,002
    DUP – 92,887 – NO CHANGE
    TUV – 78,220 NO CHANGE
    UCU – 68,443 +1,662 (17% Green) =70,105
    APNI – 19,555 + 3,910 (40% Green) = 23,465

    977 (10%) Green Non-Transferable or going to the others.

    3rd Count

    SDLP – 101,002 + 9,386 (40% Alliance) = 110,388
    DUP – 92,887 – NO CHANGE
    TUV – 78,220 – NO CHANGE
    UCU – 68,443 +9,386 (40% Alliance) = 77,829

    4,693 (20%) Alliance Non-Transferable or going to the others.

    4th Count

    SDLP – 110,338 + 15,565 = 125,903 ELECTED
    DUP – 92,887 + 23,955 = 116,842 ELECTED
    TUV – 78,220 + 23,995 = 102,215

    Please feel free to tear this apart

  • You are living in a world of self-delusion, Killian. Enjoy the next two days before reality bites. Hard.

  • pete whitcroft

    Killian.
    Very entertaining.
    Alliance transfers will not split 50 50.
    Amongst party members perhaps not voters.
    Jim N is going to do the usual.

  • frustrated democrat

    There will be no absolute information until lunchtime Monday but we do know that on the pro UK side of the camp that the DUP face meltdown with Allister doing well and that the CU’s have against all the odds held their vote and head the polls in several constituencies.

    SF position in particular opposing violence has been vindicated, the DUP have lost out to the anti SF vote of the TUV, the CU’s New Force has proved to be resilient with a probable increase in their % of the vote, maybe due to the Cameron effect.

    The outcome is bad for the Assembly as the DUP are forced to move to the extremes to combat the TUV and may fracture with their less stringent members favouring the CU position.

    The failure of the local media pundits to spot these move begs the question how relevant are they? They dismissed the CU’s and failed to see the meltdown of the DUP under attack from Allister(TUV). They need to renew their links with the parties to see what is actually going on.

    My new forecast, () last forecast

    SF 130’s (140)
    CU 90’s (90)
    TUV 80’s (55)
    DUP 80’s (118)
    SDLP 70’s (80)
    ALL 20’s (33)
    GREEN 10’s (10)

    The main change allowing for the much lower turnout is the switch from the DUP to the TUV being much higher than my original forecast.

    Quota 121

    This would mean SF elected 1st Count CU’s probably 3rd or 4th with a toss up for DUP/TUV on 4th or 5th maybe not reaching quota.

    Roll on Monday for the real numbers!

  • Sam Flanagan

    frustrated democrat;

    “The failure of the local media pundits to spot these move begs the question how relevant are they? They dismissed the CU’s and failed to see the meltdown of the DUP under attack from Allister(TUV). They need to renew their links with the parties to see what is actually going on.”

    The local madia are aware of what was happening. The local media are in the pocket of the NIO, instead of telling the public the truth, they will tell the public what the NIO want them to hear.
    MSM——Stinks!

  • paceparent

    Sam Flanagan’s statement:

    “The local madia are aware of what was happening. The local media are in the pocket of the NIO, instead of telling the public the truth, they will tell the public what the NIO want them to hear.”

    is right on the money. A useful exercise on Monday while we are digesting the official results would to draw up a comparison chart of the medias predictions to actual counts. The NIO variable will stand out then.

  • PB

    Frustrated Democrat and Sam Flanaghan

    Do your sources from the count agree with you that the TUV are still in the running???

  • `Its UCUNF voters who’ve claimed to have voted SDLP,`

    No I voted 1 Dodds, 2 Nicholson, 3 Allister, 4 Greens, 5 Alliance and 6 SDLP

  • Frustrated Democrat

    PB

    All estimates and projections need to be treated with a severe dose of scepticism but I would say TUV are still very much in the running.

    If as I projected the CU’s come 2nd, the 3rd seat could depend on who the Alliance, Greens, and perhaps even the SDLP, transfer to if they are eliminated before the TUV and DUP.

    Some have projected the same three MEP’s returned but too difficult to call precisely.

  • Reader

    fin: next you’ll be telling me you lot don’t actually drink the blood of catholic babies
    Not enough blood in a baby. Instead, I have most of my children in naintained schools appraising the herd.
    fin: it looks like the SDLP may have actually picked up a decent% of them’uns votes, is it a moral high ground thing ie look I can vote for a Taig (cos it won’t count) or is there an honest feeling that the SDLP are an ok party
    Tricky. I don’t regard myself as typical. As we both calculated, it was a token vote; and I wanted to put up a wall of conscience before the vote for Allister; and I wanted to fill my ballot paper before I left out the Luddites, Shinners and Dupes.

  • Sam Flanagan

    PB;
    A little bird tells me Jim Allister still believes he could take a seat.

    Does anyone recollect how approx 6 weeks ago media pundits, internet pundits (they never give their real namens), started saying the TUV vote would be aprox 40,000?

    It was not long beofre party dupes like yer man the MLA Buchanan and Denny Vitty were saying the same thing, Jim Allister will only get 40,000 votes!

    Did someone let Derren Brown with his mind control tricks loose on all these gullible pundits and party apparatchiks?

  • PB

    Just wondering, esp after looking at the pic of Paisley junior trying to tally votes, that there is also a possibility that the main parties will try and up their chances to the media and bloggers?
    Really hope Allister comes through, simply because he was the best unionist candidate

  • snaz

    Face down tallying is notoriously unreliable but certainly even on the basis of the
    Tallies I have done/seen Allister is still very much
    Still in the race.

    The only things we know for sure is that the DUP vote
    Has imploded (even at 20 percent which is above our
    Tallies it is down 40 percent) and our New Force has
    Made a very credible start despite the best attempts of
    The media NIO alliance to spin and work against us.

    When one of 3,000 party members defects (still not seen him
    And his partner out in Donnaghadee with Iris have you?)
    Gets a lead news/newspaper story and 3 defections of elected
    Reps barely get a mention that tells you all you
    Need to know.

    But no Unionist (including Dodds) should be counting
    Their chickens.

    We are certainly not and if I’m honest with Dodds in
    The middle of the ballot and the DUP verifyers being
    Made up of 4 govt ministers (is there no country to run)
    Showing the state of their activist base I think that
    If any Unionist is being underestimated it is likely
    To be her.

    What is absolutely clear is that apart for North Belfast
    There is not a single safe DUP Westminster seat in NI
    And if there was an election tomm they would defo lose
    North Antrim and Strangford such was the scale of their
    Meltdown (to Allister and us respectively)

    Monday will be here soon enough and we will soon see
    But I think all 3 Unionists could still get elected.

    Can’t see a permutation that sees SDlP though which as
    A firm centre ground unionists disappoints me.

    Unionism needs to move the Shinner arguments on to their
    Far left anti business communist agenda instead of
    Continually focussing on their muderous past.

    This agenda is not representitive of the broader catholic
    Community many of whom share the same left/right values
    As us and the Conservatives.

    What ever happens never has one party dropped so much
    In such a short space of time.

    It proves that Dromore was actually a real representitive
    Poll in the Pro Union community and that was a matter
    Of months after the election.

  • kensei

    Sammy

    PS – why did I hear two different SF workers at two different polling stations telling people to vote de Brún 1 and then stop? Haven’t you moved beyond that sort of exclusivist nonsense? Do you actually want to hand seats to Jim Allister in the next council and Assembly elections? You know how STV works so why do it?

    I don’t think you understand the complete loathing of the SDLP by sections of the SF electorate. My father, republican undoubtedly but normally an extremely fairminded and sensible man had to be talked into transfering to the SDLP on the grounds that he dislikes Tories even more. This is after, I may add, an SDLP councillor had been very helpful he had with kids going mental out his back.

    Everytime the SDLP go on an attack run on SF, I guess they manage to lose as many votes as they gain.

  • dewi

    Plaid to top the poll in Wales, SNP in Scotland, Sinn Fein in NI. That’s that sorted then – this time let’s have the negotiations somewhere warm – I quite like the sound of the “Bermuda Agreement”…

  • fin

    haha Reader, even a token vote for a nationalist will do, its a bit like crack, you think you’ll just try it to see whats like and before you know it you’re out putting up posters for Sinn Fein ; )

  • frustrated democrat

    Snaz

    There is zero chance of 3 unionists getting elected BDB is home free.

    It is probably a fight between DUP/TUV for the 3rd seat as they both need to be at least 15,000* ahead of the CU’s on the first count to allow for Green/Alliance/?SDLP transfers.

    * if we suspect there are 90,000 plus for the CU’s then that means the DUP/TUV need a combined 210,000 and those votes just don’t exist. There are only about 170,000 available at best and those would need to split 106,000 – 64,000, which no tallies have indicated, for even one of them to get ahead of the CU’s, it is more like 50/50.

    I think the absence of the usual DUP suspects from here underlines the extent of their collapse.

  • The real deal

    The ability of some people to fool themselves has no limit. The DUP topped the poll in all their parliamentary seats except two. In those two the MPs name would be very likely to bring them through in a Westminster election. The safest DUP seats were East Antrim, Strangford, North and East Belfast. No other party came close in any of these areas. However it is possible to see circumstances where, even on Thursday’s figures, the DUP could win North Down.
    And now for the first preference result – based on real figures at verification.
    SF 27%
    DUP 19%
    SDLP 16%
    UCUNF 15%
    TUV 14%
    AP 5%
    Greens 3%

    For neatness I have disgarded the fractions.

    So what happens?
    SF surplus goes largely to SDLP
    AP & Greens fairly evenly between SDLP and UUP
    TUV about 2-1 in favour of UUP
    Result SF, UCUNF and either SDLP or DUP (no more than 3000 votes between them. Irony has it that TUV vote distribution will settle it. Jimbo could gift the seat to nationalists.
    It is hard to imagine the series of disasters that befell the DUP occuring in another election campaign so not much for anyone to get too excited about.
    On these results the UUP vote is slipping slightly again even with Tory support.
    SF vote has come out well and the SDLP should consider it a good result whether they win the seat or not.
    The TUV will know that though they have performed well it is probably in part due to having a good candidate and the DUP having a poor one. Unless Jim can clone himself he is in trougle in a party sense. He will be unable to develop beyond the area he stands in himself – presumably North Antrim. He has not allowed anyone else to speak for the party and it is exclusively a one man band. Now that he has no mandate he will find it hard to grow his base but there will be a place for him – if he has the patience to wait.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    The Real Deal,

    good exclusive. How many of the SF % is above the surplus?

    re. “It is hard to imagine the series of disasters that befell the DUP occuring in another election campaign”

    I agree – but if he can continue through to the Assembly he will pick up a few good stand-ins, he has been the star of the show though his result may be about to plunge Norn Iron back into serious instability – cant help admiring the fecker for having the courage of his convictions and the balls to see it through. Well done Jimbo you crazy camper.

  • Peter Brown

    “What ever happens never has one party dropped so much
    In such a short space of time.”

    Snaz for an Ulster Unionist (or whatever you are called now) you have a very short memory….

  • frustrated democrat

    The real deal

    Me thinks you have a surprise coming on Monday… I hope DUP Ministers are better Ministers than tallymen… the DUP probably didn’t top even one seat.

    Check Sammy Morse and Mark McGregor for an independent view of the pro UK vote…

    CU’s will be first pro UK party elected.

  • snaz

    Peter,
    Tell me when the UUP dropped 40 percent (or more) in
    Less than 2 years.

    Also to the other blogger I was not suggesting that
    All 3 Unionists were going to get elected I was
    Merly pointing out that all 3 were still in the running
    For the 2 Unionist seats that clearly exist.

    With the unreliability of face down tallying I still
    Think it is too close to call other than the fact that
    SF will top the poll.

    To the DUP spin doctor. The DUP had 2 clear victories (NB and EL)
    Several clear defeats (NA, UB, LV, ND, NAA, FST, SD, WT)

    East Antrim and South Antrim to close to call and nearly
    A 3 way split.

  • Peter Brown

    Snaz

    Care to compare 1997 Westminster and 1999 European elections for the UUP where its share of the vote nearly halved

  • Laughing (Tory) Unionist

    Frusters: if you can’t even call Unionists unionists – because, presumably, you’ve so bought into the nationalist narrative you’re too ashamed to use the purely descriptive term – and instead have to engage in this flim-flam of ‘pro UK’, you’re not merely very silly, you’ve not merely conceded intellectual defeat before you’ve begun, you’re not merely not worth supporting because you’re too politically spineless to advance a cause you don’t anyway believe in, you’re also bad news for GB Tories, not one of whom is in the slightest bit ashamed of using the term ‘unionist’ when desribing the Party’s position on the constitution.

  • snaz

    Peter,
    In the days when the UUP dominated at Westminster and
    Paisley dominated Europe I think it is a slightly
    Disengenious comparison.

    I actually thought you might have been attracted by
    The UUP/Tory link in terms of having the most openly
    Pro Union british government in generations and equally
    Importantly having the fiscal tools of which the Stormont
    Executive is so bereft to deal with our economy and public
    Sector/private sector balance.

    Why would you not want us to end our semi detached status
    From main stream political life?

  • The real deal,

    If your figures are correct, it means that the combined “unionist” vote is 46%. That is slightly above what it should be, based on demographic changes. We have heard also that the vote share has gone down more in Unionist than Natinoalist areas.

    All of that points to an interesting possibility that (1) Allister has taken away votes from Nicholson BUT (2) Nicholson has had most of the lost votes replaced from the Nationalist side. I would suggest these figures are actually telling us that this could be the first signs of a flaking off of Catholic votes towards the CUs. Its too early to tell. Lets see what the figures bring tomorrow.

    Just an interesting aside, I was at the Fermanagh v Cavan Match yesterday (which we lost by a point unfortunately). I talked to a Catholic man who told me that he voted for Jim Nicholson! He said it was because he wanted to make a protest vote against Gordon Brown. The CU leaflet obviously worked in this man’s case. You can understand my delight. I am now hoping this was not a freak occurance.

  • borden

    Seymour,

    so many differing opinions -how do you see the percentages for each party falling? and in what order can you see these being elected -btw as a catholic i transferred from SDLP – All -UCUNF

  • snaz

    Seymor,
    You have mis read the Unionist/Nationalist turnout
    Issue (although I like you hope and believe that Catholic
    Unionists supported us. I know many Catholic UUP
    Supporters anyway and we have quite a few members)

    Although Unionist turnout is lower than Nationalist
    Turnout it has actually dropped a lot less in percentage
    Terms in Unionist areas than Nationalist areas which
    Sammy Morse has produced the complete breakdown of.

    Pro Union parties will have an increased majority over
    Pan Nationalism by the end of tomm.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    SM,

    Was there any ‘leafleting’ at the d-day commemorations – it was pretty shocking stuff to hear people booing El Gordo.

    Snaz,

    has Sammy been on the Politics show – cant find it on the internet.

  • Borden,

    The real deal’s figures are 1% higher than what I thought they should be, even if the turnout was proportionate in both Unionist and Nationalist areas. I appreciate that 1% is also within a margin for error. However, what an important 1% that could be.

    Nicholson will be the second MEP to be elected on these figures. He will get far more transfers than Dodds. In fact, I am aware that TUV activists were telling all of their supporters to give their No. 2 vote to Nicholson.

    On the face of it, Maginnis would fall short by about 2and a half% after transfers before Allister’s votes are transferred. The question really is once Nicholson reaches the quota, do the remainder of Allister’s votes go to Dodds?

    I am not so sure they will. There was so much anti-DUP feeling out there that I would not be surprised if hatred of the DUP could have spurred many unionists to give their next vote to the SDLP because damaging the DUP might be more important to them than seeing another Unionist elected. That might sound like heresy but one can not ignore the intensity of feeling out there.

  • Thanks for that Snaz

    I was never much good at reading Morse code!!

  • borden

    Seymour,

    thanks for that excellent post. A poster from UCUNF on the Devenport diaries backs up your analysis. He puts the combined nationalist vote at just over 42% (SF 27.5 SDLP 15.1). And I can tell you of quite a few Catholics in Foyle and East Londonderry who voted for UCUNF