For those of you who obsess over elections check out electoral calculus. Should there be a general election tomorrow the Conservatives would be returned with a majority of 18 and a lead of 105 seats over Labour according to the current poll (as of 30th April 2009). It would be interesting to see what the polls are like after the budget (if anyone has seen any please feel free to post).
Rumours circulating around Westminster suggest that if Labour doesn’t perform in the European and local government (England only) elections this June Gordon Brown’s position will become untenable causing a backbench revolt and a leadership challenge. Gordon will then have several options (below):1. Step down immediately
2. Do a John Major and threaten his backbenchers to go to the polls
3. Actually go to the polls
4. Face a brutal leadership challenge
There is no doubt in my mind that Gordon has the brains, but he lacks the ‘image’. The Labour government reflects the Conservative government of 1997, on the eve of an election and in the middle of economic difficulties.
This European election will be a referendum on the government and less about Europe – which poses series questions. The thing is is that the Conservatives are desperate to get into government and their promises and position on Europe will remain unchallenged as they will be Labour obsessed. The UKUP and Eurosceptics will become irrelevant and face a squeeze at the expense of the two main parties.
Is a coalition on the cards? I’m not so sure but would be interested to hear readers views. Certainly it is being talked about around Westminster but I would put my money on the Tories doing better than polls predict, particularly with 50 percent tax on the super rich. It is clear the Tories under Cameron have restored confidence within their grassroots voters, particularly business. But I’m no expert on the matter.
Long time political hack