Duffy to run for Europe?

Politics.ie is reporting comment appearing elsewhere that Colin Duffy will be standing as an independent republican candidate in the European election.

  • latcheeco

    1400 at St. Malachy’s pre-formal! Jesus that’s a lot of nice young men to be dancing with each other.

    Again Sammy I can’t see it; your international examples not withstanding, and I prefer to call it one country, one nation. Sounds a pretty common idea to me. Yanks fought a civil war over it. Maybe Unionism needs finally to realistically engage with nationalism

    UDI is not a runner any more than re-partition. Will Beal Feirste be included? Who would back it? Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas and if the agreement is to be believed haven’t they already agreed to a United Ireland in principle at 50+1 anyway? So it can’t be that bad.

    I think unionists will do a deal that’s fair to them and it should be fair given what they are being asked to do, but I don’t think the policy of indulging unionist huffery and puffery has been too successful so far in Irish history, it just prolongs the agony. I don’t think GFA sectarian horseracing is engaging with unionism either. I equate your call to understand unionism in its own terms as a nice polite way (no offence) of saying comply with unionism; of telling me to give it up or they’ll go nuts and wreck the place. You can’t forever live in nevernever land where the minority (albeit majority in two counties)swing everybody else to their detriment by the swag.

    Again there’s a double standard at play. You bring violence into it without remarking on the underpinning unionist threat of violence. (BTW for what it’s worth. I think it was always counter-productive and distracted from the narrative once the pogroms were stopped).

    As regards the 95%, I’ve never been a dedicated follower of fashion and much madness is divinest sense after all. Didn’t they all think going off to the trenches in 1914 was class? I wouldn’t set my principles by majorities, even large ones. I could say history rarely mentions the good sense of the masses.

    BTW You’re hung up on marxist textbooks. Some of us are inveterate capitalists:)

    How is 50+1 a better deal for unionists? My idea is anything but immediate and certainly not lazy. The GFA is lazy because it’s a sectarian fudge. My idea at least takes unionists into consideration and gives everybody time to prepare. What are they going to get if 50+1 occurs in 2025 under the sectarian carve up deal they have now? Sweet FA probably.

  • picador

    Sammy Morse,

    A case very well made.

    Now get yourself down to the Metropolitan Tabernacle on Sunday morning and make the case for evolution.

  • fin

    Are we not getting ahead of ourselves with what the dissidents will accept or offer to unionists and London, thats all pie in the sky until the day comes when they sit down to replace the GFA with whatever. However at this stage I think its fair to ask who is going to be on the negoatiating team for the dissidents, surely they have actually reached that stage of the plan, haven’t they?

    One thing the desidents don’t seem to slag SF off for or indeed mention is the ‘border’ referendums if nothing else I thing SF played a blinder on this, namely the first one triggering another every 7 years. Once one is held the measure of unionism will be known and even though it may/will take several it is only a matter of time before the right package is put on the table to win over enough unionists to win.

    I seem to remember Marty in an interview over Easter predicting 2014 as the first one, he included an interesting comment around the important of persuding unionism its a good idea, BUT that they wouldn’t have a veto.

    I found the date interesting 2014 things will be hotting up for 2016 commerations, 2021, ommerations for the war of independence, and 2028 (a bit ropey but…) Fianna Fails 100 years will have been 2026 so the little ‘r’ republicans may still be feeling good.

  • Tochais Si­orai­

    It’s gonna be intersting this referendum craic. The first one (2014?) Unionism should win comfortably enough (60/40?). The key one is the second, if there’s no movement on the numbers or unionism increases its lead it’ll put back the the all-Ireland ‘project’ decades. However if there’s a few % change that adds momentum & then the wheeling and possibly a little dealing will be done.

  • slug

    “I thing SF played a blinder on this, namely the first one triggering another every 7 years. ”

    A common mistake – read the Agreement. The first one does not trigger any further referenda at all. The figure 7 is simply the minimum timespan to any subsequent one, if there is to be another. It is not a requirement that another be held in 7 years.

  • slug

    latcheeco

    “What are they going to get if 50+1 occurs in 2025 under the sectarian carve up deal they have now? Sweet FA probably.”

    A UI that has come about by consent of the people of NI.

  • Jo

    I don’t with respect think that acting against the wishes of 95% of Irish people matters a flying fiddlers to such people.

    Of course, their apologists can point to those who acted (arguably) against the wishes of Irish people in 1916 ad nauseam, but then again I don’t think Duffy could remotely be ascribed any of the qualities of Connolly, Pearse, De Valera or Collins.

    The execution of many in 1916 turned the Irish people in favour of the rebels – I would imagine that Duffy’s demise would not have a similar effect and that in time that he’ll share the fate of McGlinchey, with whom he has MUCH more in common.

  • fin

    For sure, Slug, it is triggered when the SoS believes that a majority will vote for a united Ireland, so I will stick with every 7 years on this. I don’t believe any yardstick was included for estimating when there would be a majority.

    For me once the first one is held than unionism is on the backfoot, because they only use the term majority without specifics, I think a lot of people will get a shock if the percentages are circa 45/55 or even 40/60 in unionisms favour as it’ll be a lot closer than what is implied. Also as I said once one is done and the results known, united Irelanders than know how many more need to be brought over to the yes side, which cold well be less than 100,000

  • slug

    “if the agreement is to be believed haven’t they already agreed to a United Ireland in principle at 50+1 anyway? So it can’t be that bad. ”

    Well by definition anything a majority vote for would not be too bad. Can’t see it happening any time soon, mind. The point here is that if you win by means that unionists have agreed to – and nothing is simpler and fairer than a majority of the people of NI – then you are more likely to get acquiescence. But if it is done against the wishes of NI then you are storing up all kinds of resentment and trouble. Personally I would vote to stay in the UK and to develop the instisutions to get rid of sectarian designation, replacing it with a weighted majority. That to me is the most desirable outcome. Who knows what things will be like 30 years down the line? It would be daft of unioinsts to negotiate a settlement in which Britain withdraws. It’s like you negotiating a settlement where the ROI withdraws after 30 years. You really have little imagination if you think that this is a runner with unionists!

  • John East Belfast

    fin

    “united Irelanders then know how many more need to be brought over to the yes side, which could well be less than 100,000”

    You seem to think this whole debate around the Union is totally one sided and the balance has tipped with unionism sliding down a slippery slope.

    Likewise “garden centre prod” would view any close call as a rallying cry to the next referendum polling booth.

    Also dont rely on the demographic either because there has always been a greater proportion of unionist Catholics than there have been nationalist protestants.

    Opinion Polls always show that 92% + of Protestants support the Union but out and out Separatism of Catholics is probably 50% at best. Indeed probably a quarter of Catholics in the privacy of a polling booth or unionist.

    Not to mention the case for the Union will be made and will be based around a large pluralist state where the English, Scots, Welsh & Irish – now enhanced with the African and Asian British – pool their resources together realising they are better together than apart.

    The recent economic crisis has dealt a death blow to Scottish independence and has utterly exposed the whole idea of Irish Seaparatism as founded on nothing other than past and current prejudice (both real and perceived) against the notion of Britishness.
    There is no case for “Ireland Once Again” separatism governed from Dublin by people who cant recall how large sums of money find their way into their safe.

    The economic case alone will persuade practicallly all of the Protestants of the common sense of the Union as well as enough of the majority of tax paying and property owning middle class Catholics.

    Therefore nationalism really needs to come down from its cloud on this because there is nobody reading Slugger today who will see a United Ireland arising from the kind of slow osmosis which is the basis of SF strategy.

    The only thing that will bring real change is some kind of cataclysmic economic or global occurrence that causes fault lines akin to an earthquake along current political boundaries.

    Things like Irish Unity, the collapse of the British and even European unions will ultimately be governed by forces and events not even dreamed about.
    However if all things remain the same then so will the status quo

  • daisy

    What are Duffy’s policies with regards to Europe? Presumably he has some, given this is a European election.

    Mind you, considering the majority of other NI parties contesting the vote usually reduce it to a sectarian headcount as opposed to actually formulating policy and persuading voters on the merits or otherwise of EU membership, why should he be any different?

  • fin

    John EB, its easier not to answer in the order you posted, firstly the unionist catholic vote never seems to appear in any election. Voting is always along unionist and nationalist lines and adhere to demographics, this begs the question why do unionist catholics continously vote for ‘united Ireland’ parties instead of unionist parties. Don’t believe polls, Seymore Major posted an analysis of a poll here a few days ago and it ran opposite to what happens in the privacy of the polling booth.

    To my mind the fist poll regardless of the outcome (unless it is outragously in favour of the union) is the start of the end for unionism. To win more yes votes for the next poll the YES vote need only sweeten the offer. Unionism is faced with maintaining its existing vote (which demographics will continue to eat into)and/or giving ground to a united Ireland aspiration (but why have have a loaf when you can have it all) and/or making the union more attractive economically, which involves going cap in hand to London to increase the handouts.

    I find it insulting and disturbing that you believe an aspiration to self-determination is founded on an anti-British prejudice, its very much in the vein of the great white master. Having lived in London for many years I’ve found that nothing winds people of this mindset up more than treating the UK like any other country, insofar as I support England at sports (except if they’re playing Ireland, and with Rugby when they are playing Ireland I treat England, Scotland and Wales the same and no different from France or Italy, because I (and most Irish people) don’t see England,GB or UK as any different than any other country.

    A point you made which is of great interest to me, and again it is touched on here now and again without been developed, and that is the benefits of the union to NI and indeed of NI to the union, been resident in London most people seem more interest in an independent England, seeing Scotland, Wales and NI as millstones and of little value in the relationship.

  • fin

    Daisy, a number of people have raised this point, I can only say that his policies can be no worse than the Tories who constantly vote anti-EU and offer support for ex-communist leaders who predfer Moscow to Brussels, this was highlighted last year after Georgias trouble where Davy was condemning Moscow while supporting Moscows cronies in the EU

  • Driftwood

    fin
    How many Catholics who rely on the British Government for their nice public sector jobs(and nice pensions)are really going to give that pretty neat lifestyle up for a united ireland which is culturally and socially British in outlook anyway.
    Never gonna happen. But the game of ‘let’s pretend’ can continue indefinitely.

  • Neil

    When I saw the tag line for this thread I thought Colin had made clear some kind of plan whereby he would wait til the guard’s back was turned and make a bolt for Rosslare.

    With regards to the Unification vote, I have to say that while the proof is gonna be in the pudding, unfortunately for myself I reckon JEB’s right for the meantime. The breakdown of Republican/Unionist is different to the breakdown Catholic/Protestant with (according to wikipedia) 36% Unionist and 23% Republican. It’s gonna take a whole lot of sprogs to make a dent in that.

    That race is gonna start heating up only when the baby boomers are shuffling off this mortal coil, the population being pretty heavy at the older age range.

  • fin

    Driftwood, the old biting the hand that feeds you line is a bit bankrupt, nationalists in NI never had a choice on who to pay their tax to or to claim benefit from. However if you want to follow that arguement its worth noting the differnce in public sector pay scales and state pensions.

    Having lived 50% in both areas I would not say that Ireland north or south had a british outlook culturally or socially, if it did it negates an awful lots of arguements on both sides. If it is true and it is important than surely it reassures unionists bout a united Ireland?.

    The issue is about independence and self-determination.

    Neil, interesting stats, it also includes 40% dunno’s which are easier to convert to a yes with the right offering on the table.

  • PaddyReilly

    Republicanism needs to engage with Unionism; there’s no nice simple scenario where Republicanism does a deal with the Brits and the Unionists just accept their fate.

    Republicanism cannot engage with Unionism: they are contraries. In a dispute over something so fundamental as to which side of the road you drive on, no compromise is possible.

    What Republicanism needs to do is ignore Unionism and reach over its heads to the Protestant people of the North of Ireland. I think South Africa is the model. Obviously the current régime isn’t going to pay any attention to Verwoerd and his cronies, but it will be speaking directly to South African Whites and saying, look your elected politicians are not going to be in power any more, but if you obey our laws we will do our best to guarantee your property and safety and address any other valid concerns you choose to raise, which it is possible to resolve within the context of majority rule.

    And as for this seven year rule, obviously it’s going to have to go. Democracy means we are ruled by the current electorate, not by that of ten or more years ago. If the majority in Stormont want a referendum every six months then that is what they shall have: to deprive them of this is to start slipping into dictatorship. The current rule is only applicable when there is not a visible majority in favour.

    I think we need to consider, seriously, just how far Unionism is ahead of Nationalism at the current moment. My estimate is that when all the transfers are counted in June Unionist candidates will be 4,500 votes ahead of Nationalist. But this is actually only the mean point of the predicted outcome. So it could be as much as 14,500, or it there could be a Nationalist majority.

    Of course, if I am completely wrong and there is a 100,000 Unionist majority, then I shall slink away and not bother commenting on NI affairs again in this lifetime. Or maybe decide that Greenflag is the man. It’s hardly worth talking about a United Ireland if it isn’t going to happen in my lifetime.

    But until such time as my estimates are disproved, I venture to suggest that the second Unionist seat is still vulnerable. If Unionists could start out 1000 votes ahead of Nationalists in South Belfast and still, by bad transferring, end up one seat behind when the transfers were all counted, then obviously the same phenomenon is possible on a provincial scale with a much larger number of votes. It all depends how many votes Jimbo gets and how effectively they transfer. If he gets 50,000 votes and only 80% of them transfer effectively, then Unionism will be 10,000 votes down, won’t it? Which in the circumstances, could be crucial.

    The breakdown of Republican/Unionist is different to the breakdown Catholic/Protestant with (according to wikipedia) 36% Unionist and 23% Republican.

    The great thing about Wikipedia is that you can go in and edit it to say whatever you want. ‘Republican’ I think only refers to the extreme end of Nationalism. You can, of course, go through the electoral results (Nationalist/Unionist) and compare them to the religious returns (Catholic/Protestant) in the census. They produce a result that is almost identical, and where there was the slightest variation in the past, I have observed that at the next election this was corrected.

    What is being debated at present is whether Nationalist in ordinary elections is going to translate into pro-United Ireland in a Referendum.

    Personally I believe that if there is a clear Nationalist majority in Stormont, (or even in the forthcoming European elections) a lot of Unionists are going to change sides, particularly mothers who want their children to grow up in a peaceful environment.

  • It was Sammy McNally what done it

    Dewi,

    14-13 wherefore art thou?

  • The Continuity John O’Connell

    [i]How many Catholics who rely on the British Government for their nice public sector jobs(and nice pensions)are really going to give that pretty neat lifestyle up[/i]

    Fair point – but we’ll see how nationalists react once the public sector starts to shrink when Dave becomes PM. It’s already happening now, actually. Also, Dublin could negate this factor by promising lots of public sector jobs anyways, whether there was any truth in it or not.

  • The Continuity John O’Connell

    Sammy why don’t you and Dewi get a room of your own? Jesus Christ, this is a thread about Colin Duffy and the future of republicanism – not fucking rugby. Whatever yous get up to in private is your own business, doesn’t mean the rest of us have to see it.

  • It was Sammy McNally what done it

    The Continuity John O’Connell,

    ditto all you crazy John O’Connell’s out there

    in the absence of a thread on Lions then the guerrilla tactics continue.

  • Comrade Stalin

    I’m absolutely opposed to the RIRA’s strategy. My Easter post was on the morality (lack of it) of armed struggle. That has nothing to do with Duffy

    So the fact that a candidate (any candidate) may support the resumption of the war, despite the fact that you oppose it, isn’t important to you ? Why would you vote for people whom you completely disagree with on an important matter like that ? Don’t you think there’s an inconsistency about someone who opposes the terms used by the PSNI to detain him but simultaneously supports an armed conflict ?

    unless you’ve, like the PSNI/RUC, decided to reject any form of justice and go for conviction in the court of media, imho.

    Below your standards, Mark. I’m not trying to debate anything except Duffy’s position on the resumption of an armed strategy.

  • Comrade Stalin

    daisy:

    What are Duffy’s policies with regards to Europe? Presumably he has some, given this is a European election.

    Duffy’s candidacy is nothing about policies in Europe. Then again, like you said, he can be forgiven for that, as it is also true of the three imcumbents who are expecting to win the seat back.

    Duffy’s trying to use the poll as a referendum on his detention in the same way that SF used the bye-election which saw Bobby Sands elected during the hunger strikes. The added factor, though, is that he won’t get to dictate the terms of the debate, and the issue of his clear support for resuming violence at a time when most people in Ireland oppose it isn’t going to be ignored.

  • Frank

    I would expect Duffy’s Candidacy to be largely ignored

  • picador

    Your post #23 deserves a straight answer Comrade.

    BTW I voted for Hitler back in ’33 because on the basis of his transport policy.

  • picador

    Sorry, I mean post #22 merits a straight answer.

    And I really voted for the KPD.

  • The Original Sam Maguire

    “Hmmm. I don’t agree with his Bart Killing policy. But I do approve of his Selma Killing policy.”

  • Brian MacAodh

    I believe in and support the armed struggle and strategy of the Irish People’s Liberation Organization, not that of Colin Duffy and his mere gang of ruffians.

    Only the IPLO have a strategy to reach a 32 county socialist Ireland

  • Brian MacAodh

    Picador

    Bravo to voting for KPD even with Brownshirts monitoring the voting process and your leaders under arrest. Didn’t do you a lot of good, though. In fact, I’m surprised you’re still alive and well these days.

  • Rory Carr

    “I believe in and support the armed struggle and strategy of the Irish People’s Liberation Organization…” – Brian MacAodh

    How nice for you. But just a little sad don’t you think? Rather like those 40 year olds, all dressed in black, who also have no mates and sit alone in their grotty bedsits listening to an album by The Smiths.

    Still, it takes all sorts, that’s what my granny always said.

  • picador

    Only the IPLO have a strategy to reach a 32 county socialist Ireland

    LOL – where are they now?

    Rory,

    Don’t diss The Smiths. Their followers are only slightly less dangerous than were the IPLO’s.

  • Rory Carr

    True enough, Picador. They certainly put the wind up me. I remember thinking after hearing Meat is Murder, “I don’t know about that but this music is bloody torture”.

    This is them in Madrid. Enough to send a fellow off to the bullring.

  • Tochais Si­orai­

    Morrisey did have firm views on what way to vote in a UI referendum tho’

    A Rush and a Push and the Land is Ours
    It has been before
    so why can’t it be now

  • picador

    Rory,

    I work at a bullring and most of the toreadors are big fans. In fact there’s even one who’s wont to prance about the arena with gladioli hanging out of his back pocket.

  • picador

    Mark,

    Here’s that question from the Comrade again. Perhaps you would be so good as to answer it when you get the chance.

    So the fact that a candidate may support the resumption of the war, despite the fact that you oppose it, isn’t important to you ? Why would you vote for people whom you completely disagree with on an important matter like that?

  • picador

    Still waiting for that answer, Mark.

  • Jo

    All Republican friends of mine think this man is an evil ****. At the very least, this signifies he is devoid of charm and any sort of political nous. No record of service to the community. If he should stand, he will be well trounced.

  • Enoch was right

    [i]All Republican friends of mine think this man is an evil ****.[/i]

    Tell Gerry and Martin I said hallo.

    [i]this signifies he is devoid of charm and any sort of political nous[/i]

    Grow up. Your assertions are baseless and libellous. I’d love to see you say this crap in public. But frankly you wouldn’t have the balls – and you know it. Have [b]you[/b] met him or spent any time in his company? Have you heard him talk for more than 10 seconds? Thought not.

    He could be a complete “evil ****” for all I know. But the fact that you have no evidence to back up your allegations makes you look pathetic. Grow a pair and put your name and your claims on the record…

  • Rory Carr

    Wrong, I’m afraid, Enoch. Jo’s recounting of how her Republican friends feel about Duffy is simply a statement of fact. It is not her fault how they feel about him and indeed they are free to feel however they choose. In this instance it appears many seem to feel that he is an evil **** (whatever *** signifies).

    If other Republicans feel this way about him I wouldn’t be in the least surprised if he turned out to be devoid of any charm and any sort of political nous and it doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere politically (and certainly not to Strasbourg).

    I don’t know about Jo, but I certainly don’t want to meet him and as for spending time in his company – GAWD! I’d sooner attend a Kabbala class with Madonna or (preferably) an afternoon delousing a herd of warthogs in a mudhole.

  • Enoch was right

    Just because his/her friends, with their own political and financial agenda, believe that Duffy is an “evil ****” does not then mean that one can automatically assert the [i]fact[/i] that he is “devoid of charm and any sort of political nous” nor has he any “record of service to the community” with any degree of veracity.

    I’m not saying that it’s untrue. But stated like this, with no firm evidence or facts to back it up, and it’s a thinly veiled smear. It’s as simple as that.

  • Jo

    I’m a *him*? Grow a fucking pair yourself. you mysogynistic twat.

  • Enoch was right

    [i]you mysogynistic twat[/i]

    You certainly have perfected the art of utilising the baseless slut tonight haven’t you. Way to win the argument!

  • Mark McGregor

    ‘picador’,

    I’ve not been on Slugger for a few days, so have been unable to answer your persistant demands on this question:

    So the fact that a candidate may support the resumption of the war, despite the fact that you oppose it, isn’t important to you ? Why would you vote for people whom you completely disagree with on an important matter like that?

    I’m not supporting and will not support any candidate that implicitly or explicitly endorses armed struggle.

    Any candidate that opposes 28 day detention, internment by remand, RUC stitch ups, the GFA, political policing and at the same time supports a socialist republic will get my full support.

    At present it looks like Duffy may be the only candidate meeting these citeria.

  • J Kelly

    Mark i would believe that Barbara DeBrun misses one of your criteria as does Colin Duffy. So will you consider voting for her.

  • picador

    When pressed by UTV’s Fergal McKinney to condemn hijacking and attacks – including a sniper attack – on police in Craigavon last year Duffy refused and stated that they were the legitimate actions of the community defending themselves against the police.

    That would be the same community – in Upper Bann -who voted overwhelmingly for SF and the SDLP (and their endorsement of the PSNI) at the last election and gave Toman, the RSF candidate, a derisory vote.

    I’m not supporting and will not support any candidate that implicitly or explicitly endorses armed struggle.

    So that would appear to rule Duffy out.

    But apparently not!?

    You will have to come up with something better than that

  • Bob Lash

    duffy in an election? why vote for murdering scumbags i no northern ireland has a past of that gerry adams and martin mcguinnes are prime examples but that is all northern ireland needs another politician with blood on his hands. Duffy wont win no election hell be rotting in a jail cell