Who will come top of the Euro Poll?

O’Neill directs us to this little virtual betting shop (where you only bet with virtual money), HubDub.com. At the moment, Diane Dodds is taking 39% of the virtual cash, with Bairbre de Bruin coming in a close second at 36%… Though with 5 predictions from 2 people that’s no indication on anything just yet. You can also bet on the precise number of votes Jim Allister is likely to get

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  • Silverline

    DUP 1st
    SF 2nd
    UUP 3rd
    SDLP 4th
    Alliance 5th
    TUV 6th
    Greens 7th

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    A tenner (money to slugger) – says SF will top the poll. First taker.

    Another tenner (money to slugger) says Jimbo will get less than 20,000 votes. Again first taker.

    Worryingly Paddy Power – who had SF as slight favourite to top the poll now seem to have withdrawn betting on Norn Iron Euro Election.

  • Scaramoosh

    Hmmm, why are we not able to click through to the market, which is after all what Hubdub is about?

    And second, it should be pointed out that anybody can create their own markets? How about some more Slugger markets …

  • alan56

    SF
    DUP
    UUP/CON
    SDLP
    ALLIANCE
    TUV

  • Paul McMahon

    I go along with your analysis Sammy Mc. What’s your take on Jolly Jimbo splitting the Unionist vote and the SDLP sneaking into the third seat?

    [South Belfast Deja Vu?]

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Paul McMahon

    Well I’m a finger in the air sort of chap – but think that the continuing demogrpahic shift towards Nationalism will be partly offset by an increase in garden-centre-prods who will support the UU/foreign unionists(FU)/NF or whatever they are called and the good guys will narrowly miss the third seat – so no change except SF to top the poll with the DUP losing less than 20,000 to the TUV and SF gaining about 15,000 from new voters and ongoing SDLP decline.

  • PaddyReilly

    1) SF
    2) One of DUP/CUNF
    3) One of SDLP/DUP/CUNF
    4) One of SDLP/DUP/CUNF
    5) One of TUV/Alliance
    6) One of TUV/Alliance
    7) Greens

    I’m hedging my bets. It all depends on how popular Jimbo is. I have heard that some folk intend voting for him. If he gets a big vote and these garden centre gnomes Sammy believes in vote for CUNF, then CUNF could come second.

    I don’t really believe in the garden centre thing myself: surely the legend is that it only re-emerges when there’s a truly important referendum?

    If the Jimbo voters fail to transfer, then DUP could come fourth! Yes, South Belfast is the model. You start off with a small Unionist advantage and squander it by running too many candidates.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    PaddyReilly,

    I’m only suggesting that the garden-centre-Prods* will keep the UU/Foreign Unionists/NF with the same number of votes or a small increase – rather than on their natural trajectory which is downwards.

    *North Down will be the judge of this – it had a very, very low turnout last time round.

  • Paul McMahon

    “If the Jimbo voters fail to transfer, then DUP could come fourth”

    I think that transfers will be THE key element in deciding who takes the third seat.

  • What if?

    What if another republican, not aligned to any “dissident group”, but who was respected among the general republican community, was to throw his/her hat into the ring?

    Interesting times, indeed.

  • redhugh78

    I predict a lot of Dup will give jimbo their 2nd preferences as they may have given him their first but don’t want sf to top the poll.
    anyone care to comment on the outcome of that scenario?

  • redhugh78

    I also predict jim will get near 50,000.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Sammy

    1. Conservatives and Unionists or CU’s will do just fine.

    2. See http://torystoryni.wordpress.com/ for a voting theory that will be unsettling for the DUP.

    3. I think you are way low for the TUV could be double your estimate.

  • the DUP losing less than 20,000 to the TUV and SF gaining about 15,000 from new voters and ongoing SDLP decline.

    Sammy,

    You underestimate the potential of the hardline, disaffected Unionist vote, I’ve plumped for 25,000 to 30,000 for the TUV. SF may well top the poll, but it will be with a reduced total number of votes- there more than a few disaffected republicans out there too.

  • dunreavynomore

    It’s interesting that no one is particularly interested in the capabilities or record of the candidates. Ms De Brun will do very well beyond a doubt but as an M.E.P she is rarely heard off and, for example very few in the farming community know anything about her.What is Allister’s record in Europe and many would have to ask ‘who is the other M.E.P.?’ It is a telling lesson that it’s still ‘us and them’ politics here in the wee six.

  • PaddyReilly

    It’s interesting that no one is particularly interested in the capabilities or record of the candidates.

    Yes that’s right, this is a sectarian headcount, a proxy referendum, with added capacity for calculating the current popularity of the various Nationalist/Unionist parties.

    The European Parliament is just a joke, it merely does what the various national governments tell it to.

  • Marcus

    Interesting post!

    I would be confident in thinking that Sinn Fein will top the poll this time around.

    THinking TUV will muster around 20/25,000 votes.

    Notice that Paddy Power had the Alliance and Greens on the same odds of 80/1 chance of winning! would love to see the Greens give the Alliance a run for their money!

    Quoting Brian Feenys column on tuesdays Irish news regarding the Alliance Party:

    Feeney, “…those contests will squeeze the NIO’s former front party with their pro-union voters rushing to save respectable unionism from humiliation. At the last election in 2004 they didnt even field a candidate but clubbed up with the north’s other irrelevants to hide behind a so-called independent who was duly slaughtered.”.

    On another note I came across an article in which the BNP leader Nick Griffen said everyone in Britain will have the opportunity to vote BNP in the euro elections. They have been campaigning in parts of NI so perhaps we might even see the BNP attempt the election.

  • Crab Apple

    SF 150000
    DUP 125000
    UCUNF 85000
    SDLP 80000
    TUV 50000
    ALL 37000
    GREEN 12000

  • Jo

    I earlier compiled info on the total anti-agreement votes and posted it here on Slugger. I think the total (including the McCartney multiple candidacies) and oddities like David Calvert et al came to 20,000 or thereabouts.

    If that was to double, I’d be very surprised. I’d estimate 30,000.

  • Jo

    …come to think of it that figure included anti-Agreement Republicans.

    I think TUV votes wil be 20-25000 at most.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Jo

    Have you any idea about NI politics?

    The TUV votes will come from disenchanted DUP voters who were anti-agreement last time out; there were 175,000 of them not 20,000.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Frustrated Democrat

    Given that Wee Reggie is anti-the-transfer-of Police-and-Justice then we can count the Ulster Unioinists(UU)/Foreign Unionists(FU) NF as anti-agreement this time round and throw him in with Jimbo.

    Those that are against implementing the GFA/STA would be best voting for the TUV or UU/FU NF – so much for PoshBoyDavidCameron(PBDC) saying he is going to end tribal politics in Norn Iron when he is actively encourgaing their continuance.

  • PaddyReilly

    I think TUV votes wil be 20-25000 at most.

    Paddy Power offered the best odds (to himself that is, not to the punter) on 30-40,000 for TUV. I suspect he knows what he is doing.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Sammy

    Are you a slow learner?

    Conservatives and Unionists or CU’s

    Conservatives and Unionists or CU’s

    Conservatives and Unionists or CU’s

    take 100 lines.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Paddy Reilly,

    Patrick Power is now not offering odds on this any more that I can see. I think the bookies tend to overestimate how well SF will do and this may also be the same with the TUV. Do Prods bet as much as the good guys?

    Frustrated Democrat,

    Thanks for that – but I prefer Ulster Unionists(UU)/Foreign Unionists(FU) NF.

    Of course you didnt deal with the substantive point that the aforementioned party/parties are actually standing on an anti-agreement policy.

    The ridciculous spin by PBDC that he was in the business of ending tribal politics has been shown up as soon as they get to the first election. lol.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Frustrated Democrat,

    Just read Seymour Major’s article on the Unionists(UU)/Foreign Unionists(FU) NF and I have to say it is not very convincving at all. He is though, I have to say, a very reasonable man and having exchanged words with him on Slugger a few times I’m suprised that he now seems to be encouraging people to part with their money to bet that the Unionists(UU)/Foreign Unionists(FU) NF will top the poll at only odds of 10/1.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    The CU’s are NOT anti agreement they just think, that with the agreement of the parties, it can be improved with a voluntary cross community coalition and a proper funded opposition. This is regardless of who the coalition partners are.

    They also, I understand, believe that it is the wrong time to devolve P&J NOT that it shouldn’t be devolved. It is obvious that the senior partners aren’t working together, taking on more before they have sorted out what they have, especially by agreeing not to take the portfolio, is frankly ridiculous. Maybe it could be split in the future, with policing and then justice devolved not a complete transfer at the same time. This also ignores the massive funding issues which seem to be unresolved.

    So definitely NOT anti agreement, just anti refusing to improve it.

  • PaddyReilly

    Patrick Power is now not offering odds on this any more that I can see.

    Yes I know, that’s why I wrote offered and not is offering .

    Seymour Major’s egregious tipstering is best avoided by the serious gambler.

    I note that his personal opinion poll service finds that the SDLP are actually more popular than SF. This does not lead him to consider that there is something wrong with his methodology (too many suburban, not enough Inner City or border county Papes, for example) or that folk might be slightly intimidated by a pollster and moderate their preference for fear of being marked as a Republican.

    No, it seems, the electorate have got it wrong and Seymour has it right.

    My own advice is study the electoral results: not the census, not anyone’s opinion poll. It is here you will find the useful data.

  • PaddyReilly

    A tenner (money to slugger) – says SF will top the poll. First taker.

    Another tenner (money to slugger) says Jimbo will get less than 20,000 votes. Again first taker.

    Sammy’s brag, as outlined above, seems to me to have an inherent flaw. Which is that SF topping the poll is dependent on Jimbo having a high vote. The lower his vote, the less likely SF are to top the poll. So it looks to me like you’re bound to lose on one side or another. Perhaps this is what is called ‘hedging’.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    PaddyReilly,

    if you are going to use such pejorative language as “brag” let me point out an issue with your PaddyPower post – you did not make it clear that the odds you quoted may be out of date. Shamefully misleading.

    re. Hedging and inherent flaws. A student of electoral numbers such as yourself should be aware that, based on the last time out a drop of less that 20,000 in the DUP vote (to the TUV) and an increase of 15,000 to SF could lead to SF topping the poll.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Frustrated Democrat

    “So definitely NOT anti agreement, just anti refusing to improve it. ”

    That is just plain wrong – they are against the agreement’s full implementation – they are anti-agrrement – but just do not have the honesty to admit it.

    Moderate Unionists should not vote for the DUP rather than the UU/FU NF.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    TYPO

    Moderate Unionists should now vote for the DUP rather than the UU/FU NF.

  • latcheeco

    Sammy,
    “Tory Unionist Leader Behaves Like Tory Unionist” and in other news “Night Follows Day”.
    Tories have no problem playing the orange card, always have, it’s in their nature despite their pretensions to civility. To expect anything different is, well, to expect a pig to sing.

    Maybe an end to sectarianism has been relegated by him to the status of aspiration. He likes the idea, might happen some day, but at the minute he’s not bothered. Lot of that going on.

    Maybe he thinks accusing him of hypocracy over perpetuating sectarianism is rich because he might equally argue that the GFA is by nature a sectarian carve up of minor positions to its adherents, which encourages and perpetuates tribal politics. Or that some parties who point the finger at him aren’t themselves running on either record or strategy (because they appear to have neither in the past ten years, despite the initial fanfare) but continue to thrive on an endless series of pointless bread and circus,themmuns versus ourones, type horseraces that are interesting distractions but don’t, in the end, really go anywhere.

  • PaddyReilly

    Sammy

    The word brag was not meant to be pejorative, I was thinking of Campion’s brag:-

    http://www.ewtn.com/library/MARY/CAMBRAG.HTM

    something more like an offer or a manifesto.

    a drop of less that 20,000 in the DUP vote (to the TUV) and an increase of 15,000 to SF could lead to SF topping the poll.

    But where is this 15,000 to come from? I think there is more chance of a greater drop in the TUV vote, due to the TUV effect and the attrition of elderly Unionists.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    PaddyReilly

    ok – but you are on your last warning.

    “But where is this 15,000 to come from? I think there is more chance of a greater drop in the TUV vote, due to the TUV effect and the attrition of elderly Unionists. ”

    I take it you meant to say ” a greater drop in the DUP vote”.

    I think there will be continuing weakness in the SDLP vote and new Nationalist voters to make up the increase in SF numbers – as has happened in the last few elections.

  • PaddyReilly

    Sammy

    You are correct, I meant DUP.

    In the 2004 Euro elections, SF got 26.3% of the 1st preference vote: in the 2007 Assembly elections they got 26.2%. This does not translate into a growth in my books. Perhaps the effect of dividing the electorate into 18 different constituencies, in some of which SF stands no chance of getting anywhere, may be advanced as an explanation of this apparent small decline.

    But to be on the safe side, I propose that we should expect that SF will win exactly the same proportion of the vote that they did in 2004. They may get more, but it cannot be relied upon. So for them to top the poll requires the DUP percentage to fall, due to losses to the TUV (and the grim reaper). We actually need there to be a fall of 31,220 votes.

    So if you have bet on SF to head the poll, I suggest you get out there campaigning for the TUV.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    PaddyReilly,

    I am expecting SF to increase the number of votes they get by comparison to the 2004 Euro election. I think the TUV will do very badly but may just take enough to let SF top the poll – but there will be very little in it – but I’m just guessing based on past performance by SF and on past performance by dissident Unionists.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Sammy as I commented elsewhere the Conservatives and Unionists probably know what their policies are and they are not ones that you want to make up for them.

    The CU’s are NOT anti agreement but see room for improvement with the consent of the members, can you point to any statement to the contrary from their leadership.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    members of the Assembly that is

  • Jo

    “Jo

    Have you any idea about NI politics?

    LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    If only you knew.

  • Jo

    I’ll bookmark this page and come back to it after the election results are known…until then, anyones guess. I at least will put my money where my mouth is.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Paddy Power
    Jim Allister first preference votes?
    0 – 10,000 7 – 1

    10,001 – 20,000 9 – 2

    20,001 – 30,000 3 – 1

    30,001 – 40,000 9 – 4

    40,001 – 50,000 4 – 1

    50,001 – 60,000 6 – 1

    60,001 or more

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Paddy Power

    Who will win most 1st Pref Votes?

    Bairbre de Brun 4 – 5

    Diane Dodds evens

    Jim Nicholson 10 – 1

    Jim Allister 14 – 1

    Alban Maginness 25 – 1

    Steven Agnew 80 – 1

    Alliance Party

  • Henry Wilson

    Colin Duffy will win at least 8.5 million votes

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Especially if the old vote rigging returns.