US Election: live blogging…

Just to give you a heads up, I’ll be doing a live blog on Tuesday evening from about 10pm onwards… I’m particularly keen to encourage our US based readers to join in. I can give about 10 people automatic commenting rights on the live blog software, so you can just stuff up from the local news networks/blogs as and when you hear it… Should be good craic…

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  • Ann

    Will it be an all night affair mick?

  • Dewi

    I’m still worried – Obama needs Ohio I think – and his lead is shrinking there.

  • Keith

    what times do the states start being called in?

    !’m organising an election party and i need time for the vodka jellies to set…

  • Dewi

    Keith – am I invited? times were in the Indie today but I just chucked my copy…

  • Keith

    I’d love to find that article.

    Also, election drinking games. I need ideas people.

  • Dewi

    http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=JJb1E4sELO4

    cool

    “election drinking games” – just hope…

  • wild turkey

    hi guys

    key state is pennsylvania…witness the McPhalin frenzy. If barry wins it the fat lady sings. usa networks should be calling it via exit polls by 1am our time

    PS

    Mick

    I am suitably jaded american who has lived here for 30 years. any chance about one of those commenting rights? i will be sponsored on election nite by my nom de plume. anyway whaddya think?

  • Mick Fealty

    It will Ann. God help us!

    Dewi, Tuesday night’s the night to worry. He’s 4.2 up in the RCP in Florida and Ohio. Not sure I trust the polls, but they are both breaking for him now from dead tight (OH) or consistent if slim lead for Obama (FL).

    That’s probably reflecting the bigger spend on the media coming up to the end from Obama. We’ll know on Tuesday whether that’s reflected on the ground.

    Oh, and if it does go bad for your man Dewi, mind the language. Please?

  • Mick Fealty

    You’re in WT!!

  • Eunice

    I’m on one of the most liberal campuses on the Easter Seaboard so it should be an interesting/frantic night here. (I think most of us will be tuned into Jon Stewart/Stephen Colbert on Comedy Central rather than ‘actual’ news networks, but we’ll see.) I’d love to comment as well, but I should warn you that I have no idea what live-blogging actually means…

    What interests me the most right now is previously unheard of swing states: i.e. North Carolina, which hasn’t voted blue since I think Jimmy Carter.

  • Mick Fealty

    Nothing more (in fact a good deal less) than commenting and maybe using url.ie or tinyurl.com to shorten links…

    The bigger (and wider) the conversation the better!!

  • Eunice

    Sounds fun! I do assume you mean 10pm EST?

  • Keith

    CNN has a fantastic [url=http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/]interactive map[/url], letting you run whatever possible outcome you could imagine.

    it’s interesting to note that even mccain winning all the “toss up” states, he still wouldn’t have enough seats in the electoral college.

    MSNBC has a great [url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553#scroll_map]interactive dashboard[/url] and fox news is just [url=http://elections.foxnews.com/states_map/index.html]waiting for the votes to come in.[/url]

  • Mick Fealty

    Ah Eunice that would be 10pm GMT… but join us when you can…

  • Eunice

    Hey, that works for me too…I can blog as we discuss the election in my seminar…

  • LURIG

    Are trolls allowed Mick? By the way what constitutes a troll? Someone not so much opposed to the RIR parade but more to the Loyalist bigots, drunken hangers on and Unionist hypocrites who lecture us they want to keep the Sabbath holy but who don’t mind suspending all that to keep the rebellious Taigs in their place?

  • Andy Evanko

    I’m an American reader, and will definitely be tuning into your live-blogging. Cheers.

    I hope Obama gets in–in fact, I think he’ll win rather handily–but the fun of a Presidential election night never gets old. Always great to see a Brit joining in on a good time.

  • USA

    I don’t know if I would be of any use to you guys. I live in the swing state of Pennsylvania. My wife and I are both registered Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries. We will both be voting for Barak Obama on Tuesday and I intend to watch the coverage that evening. Yes i’m an election geek.
    I am quietly confident that Obama will win, in fact I think it will be a comfortable victory in the end. So confident in fact, that I am already thinking of booking a hotel room overlooking the route in DC for the January inauguration. It will be an historic occasion that I would want my kids to share in.
    Anyway, back to the point, I would be interested in participating but what exactly are “live blogging rights”?

  • Eunice

    I must say I’m a bit of a cynic. I have almost no doubt Obama will win (although pundits, other cynics, etc tell me otherwise) but I feel I should be much more excited about this election than I am. To be honest, I’m a bit weary of all the promises of change – from both candidates – I want action, not promises, and neither are, of course, perfect…

    On the other hand, I’ve just reached age of majority so this was the first election I have ever voted in (I voted absentee). So that part was quite exciting, and the deliberations over which senator to vote for actually took me much longer than the presidential candidates.

    And I think, whichever candidate wins, there has to be a shift away from the current situation we’re in now. No matter your views on the current administration, I just don’t think it’s possible for either candidate to continue on this trajectory. So I guess in that sense, change is inevitable; it’s just what form and to what extent we really get change and what that means for us in our daily lives and not through shiny rhetoric at rallies and in television ads.

    What’s insane to me (and to many) is just how long these elections have been going on. I’m just exhausted by them, which I think is part of the reason I’m not as pumped as others.

  • Wilde Rover

    Eunice,

    “So I guess in that sense, change is inevitable; it’s just what form and to what extent we really get change and what that means for us in our daily lives and not through shiny rhetoric at rallies and in television ads.”

    Careful what you wish for.

  • Eunice

    Why? I wish for change that is good.

  • Mick Fealty

    USA and Andy you are both in! I’ve two others now my email. So the team is coming along. I may open the window a lot earlier in the day (lunch time GMT, breakfast EST?), so people can share thoughts, experiences and conversations with fellow voters, especially for a view of how swing voers are thinking…

    I’m slightly concerned we may be a bit Obama top heavy. We’ll need some reliable co-ordinates on the McCain side of the fence too!! There can’t be any shortage of IA Reps!!

  • Eunice

    Should we disclose our preferences then?

  • Harry Flashman

    “I’m slightly concerned we may be a bit Obama top heavy. We’ll need some reliable co-ordinates on the McCain side of the fence too!! There can’t be any shortage of IA Reps!!”

    Unban Bob from Boston, I’m sure he’d be delighted to help out.

  • Wilde Rover

    Eunice,

    “Why? I wish for change that is good.”

    Wishing for change that is good is hope.

    Hope is the glue that maintains the illusion of these dog and pony shows.

    Hope is the blindfold that stops the casino punter from seeing that the House always wins.

    Hope is a character flaw of people with conscience that is exploited by people with no conscience.

    The founders of your republic saw all of this and made sure to include constitutional provisions to prevent tyranny from usurping liberty. It is unfortunate that the people of this constitutional republic have shirked their responsibilities.

    It is easy to point the finger of blame at the tyrannical schemes of megalomaniacs but the most disturbing truth is that the fault lies not with these mobsters but with the generations of people who have allowed them to reach this position of power.

    People who relinquish freedom deserve to be enslaved.

  • Mick,

    If it’s not too late, I’d be happy to be part of your live comment team (not conflicting with my BBC obligations).

    Dewi,

    I’m confident Obama will get Ohio. I had said by 100,000, but the 4+ hour queues in Cleveland make me think the lead will be greater.

    I had Florida as slight lead to McCain (polls said so for weeks), but inexplicably he focussed on Pennsylvania instead (where Obama lead is more considerable).

    My prediction:
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html#/map=KMHu8

  • “Why? I wish for change that is good.”

    Wishing for change that is good is hope.

    Hope is the glue that maintains the illusion of these dog and pony shows.

    Hope is the blindfold that stops the casino punter from seeing that the House always wins.

    Hope is a character flaw of people with conscience that is exploited by people with no conscience.

    The founders of your republic saw all of this and made sure to include constitutional provisions to prevent tyranny from usurping liberty. It is unfortunate that the people of this constitutional republic have shirked their responsibilities.

    It is easy to point the finger of blame at the tyrannical schemes of megalomaniacs but the most disturbing truth is that the fault lies not with these mobsters but with the generations of people who have allowed them to reach this position of power.

    People who relinquish freedom deserve to be enslaved
    posted by wilde rover

    Have you ever thought of running for high office yourself

    I would HOPE that you would win ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    Or I am just doomed to wander in the desert of hope for eternity.

  • 6countyprod

    Hot Air has a helpful post giving details of what to expect on election night, and when. Also a good explanation of the ‘what ifs’ in early individual state results.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/02/how-soon-will-we-know-on-election-night/

  • Keith

    McCain has to win PA if he is to have a hope of beating Obama, hence the focus. From what’s being said, he’s making up good ground in the polls.

  • Obama is still 7-10% points ahead in PA, while Florida is now within margin of error (-2 to +2%). I’m arguing that McCain should have kept Palin in Ohio (and Indiana), while he should have spent a bit more time in Florida (with Guliani and/or Romney):

    http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html#/map=CGD3M

    (Click on individual states for polling data.)

  • Greenflag

    Never mind Pennsylvania. it’s a Democrat definite . The size of the electoral/presidential victory for the Democrats will be seen from the Virginia result . Virginia will be the first Red State to either go blue or show a huge trend towards the blue . That result will be known about the same time as Pennsylvania .

    This will not be a nail biter like 2000. The real excitement will be the race for 60 seats in the Senate .

  • Liam

    heh, drop by ATW in a couple of days time. Should be a hoot seeing Mr. Vance & all his American right-wing militia-type hangers on blowing their top when Obama wins 🙂 Priceless…

  • 6countyprod

    Stephen Fry has criticised “sneering” anti-Americanism among the British (and I suppose some Irish could be stuck in there, too), ahead of the US Presidential elections.

    Fry told Good Housekeeping magazine British snobbery towards Americans “horrifies” him.

    He said: “When they mock America for its supposed lack of knowledge, irony or sophistication, they are revealing nothing but the pathetic inadequacy and inferiority complex of the British.

    “I absolutely hate that sneering anti-Americanism.”

    He told the magazine: “It always comes from people who don’t know America – outside of TV or a holiday in Orlando.

    “It has its share of nuts: out of a quarter of a billion people you’re always going to get some.

    “But they are as polite, friendly, charming and honourable as any people I have encountered.”

    Absolutely, 100% right! The USA is the greatest nation on earth, no matter who the president happens to be.

  • YIU,

    Definately.

    Eunice,

    No need for disclosure at all. I’d just like to encourage people who are rooting for McCain to get involved.

  • Duncan Shipley Dalton

    6county,

    Agree with Stephen Fry’s sentiments. There is a lot of sneering at the USA and it ignores the massive cultural contribution the USA has given the world and focuses on half wits from Alaska as being representative of 300 million people. Mind you unsubstantiated claims to American superiority and chants of USA USA we are number 1 don’t help much. The USA is a great country but greatest on earth seems a stretch. Mind you it will be much better with President Obama that is for sure.

  • 6countyprod

    There is nothing as attractive and endearing as an intellectual snob. Halfwit? Takes one to know one, right?

    How about most diverse, most generous, most powerful, nation in the world. Name one nation better!

  • Eunice

    Wilde Rover – What you’re referring to is hope without action. People who don’t vote, people who remain complacent, people who complain without bothering to get involved or at least informed, and yet expect the country to run perfectly – those people relinquish their right for a better world. There are people really trying to get things done. The question is whether or not Obama is one of them.

    Personally, I think I would have ended up voting for McCain, or at least really agonized over it, if he hadn’t picked a brain donor for a VP candidate. Yes, I’m aware that the VP’s job description is quite limited. I’m also aware that in reality, it is a crucial function irregardless of the “heartbeat away from the presidency” component. As it is, I like Joe Biden. Obama has yet to really impress me. Courtesy of one of my favourite shows:

    “Martha: I was going to vote for him.
    The Doctor: Really?
    Martha: Well, it was before I even met you. And I liked him.
    The Doctor: Why do you say that? What were his policies? What’s he stand for?
    Martha: I don’t know. He always sounded good, like you could trust him. Just nice. He spoke about – I can’t really remember, but it was good. Just the sound of his voice.”

    We’ll see in January, I suppose. The most important part of a presidency are those first two months, the changeover – whatever the president really wants to get done, he has to get done quickly. And I’m told that whoever he appoints as Chief of Staff, as well as who he hires as the legislative liaisons, are going to be key in whether or not he can get anything passed.

  • Greenflag

    Mick ,

    ‘I’d just like to encourage people who are rooting for McCain to get involved. ‘

    Well meant but a tough call as the Yanks say . In Florida I read Republican Governor ‘bolted’ from a Republican rally the moment McCain finished his speech .

    McCain’s time was 2000 . He has been ‘stiffed’ just as much now in 2008 by the ultra right as he was back in 2000 by Bush Jr’s ruthless campaign .

    Landslide on the way.

    America will be welcomed back into the league of democratic nations following it’s 8 years absence in the hands of neo conservative thugs , gangsters and warmongers and the financial conmen of Wall St .

    From a confirmed ‘atheist ‘ this may sound strange but nevertheless –

    God Bless the USA and it’s fine people who will do the right thing tomorrow for themsleves and the world, by ousting this corrupt , incompetent and spendthrift administration and restoring some semblance of economic and social balance in the USA . Whether we all like it or not we are all dependent on the USA getting it’s politics rights . They’ve been rotting from the top down for the past 8 years . Time to stop the rot !

  • observer

    The one issue that opinion polls cannot unfold for us is how America deals with the colour choice. We will see if America has truly moved on from the racial discrimination of 40/50 years ago. If you scratch the surface of present day America you can still get glimpses of it. Tuesday’s election will tell us how deep it still runs. Don’t be surprised, but be saddened, if there is a shock win for McCain.I have no problem with McCain winning, I think that he a very able politician, but it would be bad if he wins just because of the colour of his skin.

  • Greenflag

    observer,

    ‘If you scratch the surface of present day America you can still get glimpses of it (skin colour discrimination.’

    True but the vast majority of Americans care more about their ‘dollar’ and their economy than the colour of the candidates skin .

    Unlike Northern Ireland -America has progressed in many areas over the past 40 years . There’ll be an African American President of the USA decades before there is a Catholic First Minister of Northern Ireland .

    If there is a shock win for McCain – Greenflag will ‘resign ‘ from posting on Slugger for a while while the local hospital operates to remove the hat I’ll have to swallow 😉

  • CincinnatiDave

    Mick,
    I will make sure & check in a few times tomorrow night from the Bluegrass. I have never seen so much continuous polling used before in any election. The majority of folks hang up automatically when they discover its a pollster & now more & more folks here have no land-line but have moved over to entirely cell-phone use which many pollster do not take into consideration. Frankly I believe the race is way closer than anyone can imagine.

    This should be a Dem year – almost in landslide victory territory, with an unpopular President & an unstable economic picture.
    The Dems voted the one candidate with a chance of losing (except for the obvious Kucinich). As a national candidate once you get past his soaring speeches, he is a very weak choice.

    The Reps voted in perhaps the one candidate with even a chance sniff of victory.
    With Hillary as his VP, Obama would have cruised to victory.
    However, the combination of SlowJoe & Palin has changed some of the dynamics. The republican base is mobilised, the PUMAs are working overtime against Barry & the race will not be decided on either coast or in Chicago.

    What did Obama bring to the party?
    Young people? Certainly & campus town are definitely organised.
    Minorities? African-Americans are already in the Dem camp between 92-95% most elections.
    Women? Generally already there. Single & secular & black church ladies go with the Dems. Married & white church ladies trend to the Reps.
    Evangelicals? Some younger ones perhaps but his “outreach” to them through Saddleback badly misfired.
    Independents? Possibly, but the more people find out about Obama & the longer they wait to decide the bigger the chance they will go against him.

    What he has certainly brought is energy, man-power & money. We shall see if thats enough.
    He has been outspending McCain up to 10-1 in some areas. His ground game is definitely impressive but he is not yet far enough ahead to close the deal.

    Watch Pennsylvannia, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, N.Carolina, Iowa, Colorado as well as Nevada & New Mexico.
    I think it may well be more of a squeaker than a landslide.

    Seeing the talking heads & pollsters on the news tomorrow evening should McCain pull this off will be priceless! They have been in perpetual Obama Coronation mode for months. A collection of chins hitting desks, speed-dials to clinical therapists & the river of tears flowing out of Chicago as the chosen One fails on his mission…

    Predictions?
    National popular vote – probably Obama.
    Electoral College majority – McCain: 273 v 265

    Cheers
    David

  • Virginia will be the first Red State to either go blue or show a huge trend towards the blue .

    No, Indiana will call first and, even if it comes up short for Obama, the size of the swing to him will tell us whether it’s squeaker or landslide.

    more & more folks here have no land-line but have moved over to entirely cell-phone use which many pollster do not take into consideration. Frankly I believe the race is way closer than anyone can imagine

    Er, that actually favours Obama. His supporters are more likely to be cellphone only folks, and the polls which do call cellphone numbers have shown a consistently greater lean to Obama than those which don’t.

    While I wouldn’t discount a spiral of silence effect given the general unpopularity of the Republicans, the polls aren’t particularly close. Also, Obama has consistently

    the PUMAs

    There are about four of those people left. Obama has solidified the Democratic base better than any presidential candidate since Carter (Mk I). Obama is consistently polling around 90% of self-described Democrats – Kerry and Gore did not do as well.

    the race will not be decided on either coast or in Chicago.

    Virginia looks like being one of the two tipping point states in this election (along with Colorado). North Carolina and Florida, maybe even Georgia, should be tight battles.

    What is your point here? I wouldn’t be tossing the elite label about so much if I was supporting a candidate who spent $273,000 on household help last year.

    But I think you should liveblog here given our lack of Republicans!

    My final prediction: Obama 353 McCain 185.

    PS – Mick, I haven’t decided what to do tomorrow night yet, but could liveblog here if you want?

  • Sorry, the dangling sentence should read “Also, Obama has consistently been polling above 50% the past few weeks, so forget salvation for McCain through a last minute stampede of undecideds.”

  • Greenflag

    Final prediction

    Obama 374
    McCain 166

    May stay up until the first few results come in.

    Cincinnati Dave is in ‘denial’.

    Popular vote to Obama by 2 to 3 million at least .

    America wants rid of the present administration and all they stand for . McCain has probably helped the Republicans from a complete rout .
    The Economy and his choice of Mrs Palin were the final nails in his political coffin .

  • KieranJ

    I’m seeing quite a bit of nonsense on this thread. Let me say this. I’m a lifelong Pennsylvanian from the anthracite(Molly Maguire) coal region and have been active in politics for many years.

    Forget the polls. John McCain will win in Pennsylvania tomorrow. Remember, you heard it here first.

    By the way, I’m a registered democrat.

  • Dewi

    Kiernan – please God not – PA full of Welsh non-conformists not Ultser Scots….we can win this…

  • Eunice

    I think – hope – the economy will trump race issues in PA. Not to say that race is the only reason people are voting for McCain, but I can’t see many people very happy with the current administrations handling of the financial situation and let’s be honest – McCain may have been a maverick 8 years ago. I’m not so sure about now.

  • I’m a lifelong Pennsylvanian from the anthracite(Molly Maguire) coal region and have been active in politics for many years.

    Have you spent much time canvassing all those tony suburban soccer moms in Bucks and Chester Counties?

  • Dewi

    Sammy – just blasted pray!

  • 6countyprod

    Greenflag, I see where you are coming from, but do you not reckon that Obama will do a lot better against Mac than Bush did against Kerry? Bush got almost 5m more votes, if i remember correctly. You think it is going to be a close call?

  • So just how does one blog live?

  • Wilde Rover

    Eunice,

    “There are people really trying to get things done. The question is whether or not Obama is one of them.”

    I imagine Obama will try and get things done. That’s what’s worrying.

    Both anointed candidates are awful, and both candidates would become war presidents, but at least McCain (if the search for a McCain live blogger here is anything to go by) isn’t really liked by anyone.

    Obama, on the other hand, has built up a fanatical following. His followers would follow their messiah into the pits of hell, and who knows, maybe that’s where he might lead them.

    But now I find myself inexorably drawn into the lesser of two evils trap.

    Jefferson’s ideas on the duties of each generation is what is really needed if this republic is to stand.

  • Mick Fealty

    SJ,

    Just turn up! But you have an account, so don’t wait for tomorrow. How’s the view from ‘the west’?

  • latcheeco

    Mick,
    I doubt there’ll be any upsets down here but I’d be delighted to keep you posted tomorrow night all the same. Just watched the real Palin (not Tina Fey)on the SNL election special tonight. Interesting question for the future as to how much satire/lampoonery damaged her (outside her base especially) and its role in what happens tomorrow.

  • Harry Flashman

    I wonder how Obama’s expressed wish to bankrupt the coal industry will play among the good folks of Pennsylvania?

    Greenflag, there will be no need for you absent yourself from SO’T to eat your hat if McCain wins (and you’ll go easy on me too when the Big O wins, won’t you?).

  • Eunice

    “Obama, on the other hand, has built up a fanatical following. His followers would follow their messiah into the pits of hell, and who knows, maybe that’s where he might lead them.”

    I agree, but he hasn’t chosen a brain donor for VP. To be frank, I don’t know if it’s actually possible for any direction to be worse than the current situation. I think it’s encouraging that at least voter turnout promises to be very high, if not record; apathy is, I think, the most dangerous thing.

  • Eunice,

    “To be frank, I don’t know if it’s actually possible for any direction to be worse than the current situation.”

    I hate to be so cynical, but things can always get worse.

  • Obama has taken his frist victory in DixVille Notch, New Hampshire.
    http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/dixville.notch/index.html

  • Greenflag

    harry flashman ,

    ‘and you’ll go easy on me too when the Big O wins, won’t you?).’

    Greenflag go easy ???

    Eh

    NO 😉

    Watching Florida right now .When that State goes blue it’s over .

  • Greenflag

    kieran J

    ‘ I’m a lifelong Pennsylvanian from the anthracite(Molly Maguire) coal region and have been active in politics for many years.

    Forget the polls. John McCain will win in Pennsylvania tomorrow. Remember, you heard it here first. ‘

    What’s that you were saying ?

    Pennsylvania has gone for Obama 🙂

    Dewi – Three cheers for the Welsh Pennsylvanians 😉

  • Greenflag

    6 county prod ,

    ‘You think it is going to be a close call? ‘

    No . Obama will win handily once he has Ohio , Pennsylvania and Florida in the bag . Not sure of your figures re Bush Kerry 04 . Seems high

    Minnesota and NY now called for Obama .
    North Dakota to McCain and Wisconisn to Obama .