Sarah Palin: a genius game changer…

Okay, last of the US posts for a bit. Over at Brassneck I’ve just done a short analysis using a tag cloud of the two main speeches. Top word for Obama: Promise. Top word for McCain: Fight. Oh, and for those of you who thought Sarah Palin was going to be a disaster for the Republicans:

Palin’s favorable ratings are now a point higher than either man at the top of the Presidential tickets this year. As of Friday morning, Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 57% of voters. Biden is viewed favorably by 48%.

Adds: To help the discussion keep on track, Slate have kindly researched the more misleading stories about her just so that no one gets lost…And it’s having an effect on perceptions of her party too:

A week ago, just before he introduced his running mate, just 42% of Republicans had a Very Favorable opinion of their party’s nominee. That figure jumped to 54% by this Friday morning. Among unaffiliated voters, favorable opinions of McCain have increased by eleven percentage points in a week—from 54% before the Palin announcement to 65% today.

And the Rasmussen daily tracker poll is showing an almost immediate bounce effect for McCain. An effect that’s not expected to fully develop until next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Mr Obama has a fight on his hand, and one that few of his advisors were expecting at this stage of the game. He need to offer something more that nebulous promises of hope to sustain momentum and his lead in a contest that punters have long since assumed would be a one man race.

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  • pfhl

    Fox News is definitely conservative in outlook, and some of its commentators are aggressive in their language, but it does not display the sheer venom and hatred that is so obviously spewing from some of the other networks.

    Posted by 6countyprod on Sep 06, 2008 @ 09:54 PM

    Do you see fox much?

  • 6countyprod

    Yea, right, Dewi, and Obama has sided with the 23% approval-rated Democrat controlled congress 97% of the time. Some agent for change he is going to be!

    As the Times said:
    … Obama has toed his party’s line more reliably than almost any other Democrat in US politics. He has a near-perfect record of voting with his side. He has the most solidly left-wing voting history in the Senate. His one act of bipartisanship, a transparency bill co-sponsored with a Republican senator, was backed by everybody on both sides of the aisle. He has never challenged his party’s line on any issue of substance.

    …Obama’s support for abortion rights is the most extreme of any Democratic senator. In the Illinois legislature he refused to join Democrats and Republicans in supporting a Bill that would require doctors to provide medical care for babies who survived abortions. No one in the Senate – not the arch feminist Hillary Clinton nor the superliberal Edward Kennedy – opposed this same humane measure.

    Here’s the real problem with Mr Obama: the jarring gap between his promises of change and his status quo performance. There are just too many contradictions between the eloquent poetry of the man’s stirring rhetoric and the dull, familiar prose of his political record.

  • Dewi

    6countyprod – not that keen on “change” as a political slogan myself. I think people generally vote for comfort not challenge. My support for Obama (4 what it’s worth) is based on my perception of the US as a nation with massive discrepancies between the rich and poor. Democrats could make a difference.

    One thing McCain has suceeded in doing with his VP pick has been to energise the Republican activist base. It’s going to be close again but my money is still on Obama.

  • 6countyprod

    pfhl,

    I was in the US for five weeks over the summer and watched a lot of the major channels, including Fox, and I regularly watch the online video clips.

    But it’s just like Jonathan says below, liberals seem blind to their failings and weaknesses. They don’t try to live up to any particular standard, so we can’t even call them hypocrites! (although Obama’s recent attack ad mocking a handicapped septuagenarian because he can type an email might just quality as liberal hypocrisy)

    Jonathan Haidt, an associate professor of moral psychology at the University of Virginia, argues in an essay this month, “What Makes People Vote Republican?”, that it is liberals, not conservatives, who are dangerously blind.

    Haidt has conducted research in which liberals and conservatives were asked to project themselves into the minds of their opponents and answer questions about their moral reasoning. Conservatives, he said, prove quite adept at thinking like liberals, but liberals are consistently incapable of understanding the conservative point of view. “Liberals feel contempt for the conservative moral view, and that is very, very angering. Republicans are good at exploiting that anger,” he told me in a phone interview.

    Perhaps that’s why the conservatives can so successfully get under liberals’ skin. And why liberals need to start working harder at breaking through the empathy barrier.

    http://edge.org/3rd_culture/haidt08/haidt08_index.html

    I’m just trying to brighten up your evening!

  • 6countyprod

    Oops, should have read:

    (although Obama’s recent attack ad mocking a handicapped septuagenarian because he cannot type an email might just quality as liberal hypocrisy)

  • 6countyprod

    doh!

  • Dave

    “Here’s the real problem with Mr Obama: the jarring gap between his promises of change and his status quo performance. There are just too many contradictions between the eloquent poetry of the man’s stirring rhetoric and the dull, familiar prose of his political record.” – 6CountyProd

    That’s the core of it. Folks who buy the spiel of this snake oil salesman and by the product are going to break out in a nasty rash when they rub it on their sensitive bits.

    It’s interesting that folks talk about change as meaning ‘not in hock to vested interests’ without grasping that being in hock to vested interests actually means owing favours to those who financed your campaign. In reality, Obama with the largest bag of money from those seeking favours is more in hock to the vested interests than the Republicans, and therefore the least likely to be in a position to deliver change. Instead of voting for change as they innocently assume, they’re voting for a lot more of the same.

    Still, as I said before, we can always look forward to a lovely war to divert the public’s mind away from the failure of the messiah to deliver the Promised Land.

  • 6countyprod

    “Here’s the real problem with Mr Obama: the jarring gap between his promises of change and his status quo performance. There are just too many contradictions between the eloquent poetry of the man’s stirring rhetoric and the dull, familiar prose of his political record.”

    Not my words, there are actually a quote from a piece in The Times.

  • circles

    6CP – address the point!
    Palin was talking shite its as simple as that. I didnt mention Obama in my post and am not interested in who asked him what and when. She performed miserably and in no way came acros as a competen potential US president.
    I find it worrying that someone who stands good chance of having their finger on the big red button is clearly incapable of understanding the complex picture of international politics- and is indeed proud of her ignorance.

  • Greenflag

    dave ,

    ‘without grasping that being in hock to vested interests actually means owing favours to those who financed your campaign. ‘

    So the oil companies , the private health insurance companies , the Haliburtons and Enrons and the immense numbers of the corporate white collar criminal class are all supporting Obama ?

    Odd I thought they were the ones who propelled my favourite philosopher is ‘Jesus ‘ Dubya Bush into the White House for two terms .

    ‘Folks who buy the spiel of this snake oil salesman and by the product are going to break out in a nasty rash when they rub it on their sensitive bits.’

    LOL – would these be the same folks who bought from the real oil salesmen of the GOP in 2000 and 2004 and who now don’t have time to worry about a nasty rash but instead see their economy verging on ruin , millions of homes in foreclosure , a huge disparity between middle and working class America and the greedy fat cats and gangsters running the GOP .

    The ‘shit’ on Palin has yet to hit the fan but even then it won’t matter . Middle and working class Americans are looking for a New Deal and the only party capable of delivering it is the Democrats . If Obama delivers fine . If he does’nt they’ll find somebody else . This election is more important than skin colour or hair do’s or abortion or moose hunting . It’s about the future prospects for all those Americans who are waking up to the fact that the GOP has been serving not America and it’s people but just the samll minority of ultra rich corporate interests at home and abroad.

  • Greenflag

    Dewi

    ‘My support for Obama is based on my perception of the US as a nation with massive discrepancies between the rich and poor. ‘

    It’s not just a perception Dewi . It’s numbered it’s just that the ‘conservative’ media choose to ignore the numbers and the liberal media find that ‘numbers ‘ don’t sell as much as ‘sex ‘ hair dos’ moose hunting an abortion .

    For a good factual read of the numbers behind the Democrat v Republican record in the USA 1870 to the present I recommend Paul Krugman’s ‘Conscience of a Liberal’ . Would you believe that even Nixon tried to bring in ‘univeral health care’ ?

    The Democrats ‘created’ the American middle class and up to the mid 1970’s and even later the Republican Party accepted the ‘new ‘ post New Deal status quo in the USA .

    When all the hullabaloo over moose hunting and lipstick has died down the ‘real ‘ issues which are facing Americans will re emerge . But you can expect the Republicans via Karl Rove more so than John McCain to pull every dirty ‘trick ‘ out of their ‘lie bag’ to smear /denigrate the Dems while waving the flag .

  • BfB

    Greenie, you deluded fool…

    ‘dirty ‘trick ‘ out of their ‘lie bag’ to smear /denigrate the Dems while waving the flag .

    Waving the flag….you use it in a disparaging manner. We Americans view ‘waving our flag’ as a well earned right. One to defend, as our predecessors have given their lives in doing so. Much like your “swift boating’ term. We Americans view that as ‘truths told by eyewitnesses’. You don’t like the truth, it shines a light on your paper thin philosophies. You socialists nut jobs find yourself on a righteous mission, where lying, stealing and cheating is ok, for your opinion is fact (millions of scientist agree). Sarah Palin by her very existence shows you what fools you really are, what lies you really tell, whose lives you happily ruin to achieve your end. Win or lose, showing the world a real American family will ring the death knell for the liberal ideology. And all of you nut jobs, in your rabid blindness spew invectives at a basically good family, an accomplished woman, mother, citizen. The silent American majority is being insulted so crudely, and on so many liberal fronts that they will turn up in all these elections in much more force than you poor, small minded, egomaniacs realize. I am enjoying this immensely (dirty ‘trick ‘ out of their ‘lie bag’ to smear /denigrate the Dems while waving the flag)..
    HA!!
    Keep it up. ;-o

  • BfB

    As always, my opinion, written by someone better suited to explain…

    ‘As a result, what started out as a typical campaign between Republicans and Democrats — each party trying to hold its base while attracting enough independent voters to win — has exploded into the Culture War’s decisive battle.

    On the other side of this culture war are the Left-Wing Liberals. They are uncomfortable with our traditions, with the inevitable inequalities of our free-market economy, and with our military power. They dislike our values, our morality, and our unabashed displays of patriotism. At first — back in the 1960s — they were content merely to develop and pursue their own radical culture within ours. They tuned out, turned to drugs, and pushed the level of sexual license to a point our country had never known. They were so distressed by our imperfections that they refused to recognize or celebrate our achievements.
    Then they tuned in, and developed a political agenda whose logical outcome would be the overthrow of the American Revolution itself. While we believe that power flows from God to the people, they believe the supreme power is the State, which decides what rights, if any, should be allowed to the people. And because there is no God above the State, there also is no truth; no such thing as right or wrong, good or evil. Since they are working to do good — by their definition of the word — whatever crimes they commit along the way don’t matter. But if we are bent on doing what they define as harm, they will use any legal trick in the book to stop us. In short, the rule of law means whatever they want it to mean at any given moment.’

  • 6countyprod

    Circles,

    I’m not sure what you are getting so excited about. Palin gave standard, average, boiler plate, measured, run of the mill, call them what you will, answers.

    What specifically did she say that has irked you so much?

    The ‘Bush Doctrine’ question is being used by some as a ‘gotcha’ moment, but the WaPo journalist who coined the term disputes Gibson’s (and NYT’s) interpretation of it. In fact, according to Krauthammer, there are at least 4 ways of looking at it, so Palin was perfectly justified in asking for a clarification.

    All things being equal, the simple fact remains, Palin is no less qualified than Obama for either job, and McCain is miles ahead of everyone else.

    The interview was make or break for Palin. She was tense, but she didn’t blink. Obama would have crumbled unto such intense interrogation, but, of course, he will never have to face it.

    Palin is not perfect, by any means, but she has probably won the presidency for McCain.

    Although, as they say, it’s not over till the fat lady sings!

  • circles

    Good to see you have internalised the lingo so quickly 6CP. “Didn’t blink” – Ms Palin would be proud of such a good student 😉
    I wasn’t irked by her poor performance in particular. It was poor she delivered the script she was given as long as she was able – and then started going under as soon as she was out of her depth.
    What I found the interview highlighted more was the cynicism in choosing Palin as a running mate. It was not the broader interest of the country that motivated the choice but rather the extremely narrow interest of McCain and those behind him – to do whatever they think is necessary to keep a republican in the white house. Its frightening and displays a breath-taking disregard for the people when a presidential candidate is ready to hand over his power, shold he become president, to somebody he met only once, with a questionable grasp on the world and a whole bin full of dubious decisions on her back.

    BfB’s nice bit of stereotyping of non-right wing voters there had me laughing though. Was it not the current president who turned to drugs and alcohol, who’s daddy helped him dodge the draft, and then had the unashamedly brass neck to dress up as a pilot and stand on the deck of an aircraft carrier to announce “mission accomplished” as the war began to rage? He couldn’t have denigrated America more if he tried – and still there a nutters who think that the power flows from god, via this idiot, to the people. The scariest thing is that Bob probably doesn’t even find that idea scary!

  • BfB

    Just a taste of mainstream liberal media reporting on SP..
    Pathetic fools.

  • BfB

    circles

    Thanks for making my point. Really, thanks.

  • Greenflag

    Bfb .

    ‘At first—back in the 1960s—they were content merely to develop and pursue their own radical culture within ours.

    Shure . Bad news eh imagine black people being allowed to use the same public facilities as whites eh . Imagine electing an Irish Catholic JFK to the White House -horror of horrors for the Republican troglodytes . Whatever happened to the good old days when Irish Catholic Al Smith was defeated for the Presidency by the ‘burning crosses ‘ of ignorance across the Southern States !

    ‘They were so distressed by our imperfections’

    And that was in the 1960’s when arguably the USA was at it’s most prosperous in it’s history at least for the majority of middle and working class americans .

    Now in 2008 following eight years of maladministration and a never ending sequence of corruption , sleaze , mega fraud and outright lying and spin coming out of the mouths of the biggest bunch of degenerates ever to have had the gall to call themselves a political party -nobody in the USA cares any more about ‘imperfections .

    They just can’t wait to get rid of the this shower of brainless borzois . !

  • Greenflag

    circle ,

    ‘and still there a nutters who think that the power flows from god, via this idiot, to the people.;

    They’re gettin a bit confused about God these days . The latter seems to be targeting Texas a bit more than usual as he’s apportioning ‘hurricanes ‘ etc . I mean he’s already disturbed the Republican National Convention last week . Could it be naw it could’nt that a non existent God is changing sides because he or she/it is displeased with Bush & Cheney & Haliburton & Blackstone and the hundreds of thousands of dead bodies they’ve left in their wake .

    Just as well there isn’t a God or Bush & Cheney and the rest of this degenerate administration would be definites for hell fire fodder 🙁

  • BfB

    OOHHHHH!!!! The bad racist white man oooooohhhhhh!
    Run and hide…..

    From the ’60s the liberals ruined public education, destroyed the black family, and burdened the country with supporting the unfortunate victims of their ‘fuck it up, walk away, blame it on old whitey’ methods. Your premise is laughable and unsupported. I’ve lived through it all. You wet behind the ears, know nothing, indoctrinates, are pathetic. And now that SP has exposed your cretinism, I stand by, happily, as you expose your no good, baby killing, lying asses….and try to blame it on old whitey…
    HA!

  • Greenflag

    6 county prod ,

    ‘Palin is not perfect, by any means, but she has probably won the presidency for McCain.’

    Early days for Palin . Having had the experience of having a ‘cowboy ‘ thicko in the White House for the past 8 years – Americans will recoil from a repeat performance with this aged maverick /cowgirl combo.

  • Greenflag

    ‘I’ve lived through it all.’

    Then you should know better .Standing too close to the tree can give you a great view of the bark but it doesn’t help you see the forest . So as well as being a mutt that has a flat nose from chasing a parked car you are also ‘barking’ up the wrong tree . About time you dropped out of your tree and started to evolve – On the other hand maybe not . You would have to unlearn too much 🙁

    ‘Your premise is laughable and unsupported.’

    Is it ? Paul Krugman a winner of the John Bates Clark Medal the most prized award given to American economists and teacher of economics and international affairs at Princeton makes the point very thoroughly with numbers , facts and details in his recent book ‘Conscience of a Liberal ‘ You might even be surprised if you read it or can read it that he even has a good word for Richard Nixon .

    The Republican Party is now the party of the extreme right – the wealthy and the thickos who still want to believe that a non existent God is an American

  • 6countyprod

    Circles,

    hey, i appreciate your concerns.

    I think your statement: …the extremely narrow interest of McCain and those behind him – to do whatever they think is necessary to keep a republican in the white house. Its frightening and displays a breath-taking disregard for the people… etc is interesting.

    I think that the same reasoning could also be applied to Obama,

    the extremely narrow interest of Obama and those behind him – to do whatever they think is necessary to get a democrat in the white house. Its frightening and displays a breath-taking disregard for the people …

    Democrats, I think, started to waken up at the end of the primaries and realise that, maybe Hillary was the better candidate, but it was too late.

    I don’t particularly like the woman, especially after she insulted Patraeus, but she would probably make as good a president as McCain.

    Maybe i am wrong, but I fear that if Obama is elected, when some world leaders start to try to push him around, he will do something stupid, just to prove to them how tough he is, but in the process create a mess.

    (Yeah, i know, just like Bush, right?)

  • BfB

    greenie,

    Ya, I live in a real third world shit hole….

  • circles

    6CP – I’d argue that there is a significant difference in how Obama made his choice for VP. The clearest candidate for the democratic “dream” ticket (or nightmare depending on the side of the fence you’re on) was Clinton. She would have been the obvious choice if it was a win at all costs and principals be damned affair – indeed the republicans are still rubbing their hands with glee that she isn’t on the ticket.
    In my opinion, choosing Clinton would have been the cynical move following the protracted democratic campaign.

  • 6countyprod

    Cynical, maybe, but to guarantee a Democratic victory, he should have swallowed his pride (or possibly fear) and picked her.

    There is still a long way to go, and who knows what will happen between now and election day.

    It has been an interesting rollercoaster ride so far!