Higher still and higher shall thy bounds be set?

The most populous country in Europe in 50 years, bigger than Germany. 77 million compared to only 71 million!

“605,000 long-term immigrants arriving in the year to mid-2007. The EU projections show that the wave of migration to Britain, boosting both the workforce and fertility rates, is out of step with many other European countries where deaths are expected to overtake births after 2015”.

And with Ireland (Rep) growing even faster by 50%? Eurostat says it expects Ireland’s population to grow to around 6.7 million by 2060.

Not to be outdone, NI will almost hit the 2 million by 2031, says the Office of National Statistics. So far I haven’t been able to find a smoking gun on sectarian balance. Here’s how it looks, set in the UK context. by the Office of National Statistics.

NORTHERN IRELAND POPULATION GROWTH 000s

2006 2011 2016 2021 2031
1742 1812 1868 1922 1999!

“Trends differ for the four countries of the UK. The population of England is projected to increase by 8 per cent by 2016, that of Northern Ireland by 7 per cent ( big year, that) and Wales by 5 per cent. The projected increase for Scotland, where fertility and life expectancy levels are assumed to remain lower than in the rest of the UK, is 3 per cent. Across the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland recorded the highest rate of growth with a one per cent population rise last year to 1.8 million people. The population of England rose by 0.6 per cent to 51.1 million. Scotland and Wales rose by 0.5 per cent.” (ONS)

Of course many of us won’t be around to see the end of the projections and the ratio of oldies will be far too high.

Do I really believe it all ? For the UK, The Office of National Statistics enter a caveat.
“The UK population reached 60.5 million this year, and the new official figures suggest it will rise to 65 million by 2016 and 71 million by 2031.
The ONS said these were projections, not forecasts, because it was impossible to predict how changing government policies might affect the outcome.
Policies like immigration and welfare.

Overall, is the trend good or bad? Higher immigration of the skilled, retaining our own skills good; big increase in oldies over youngies, bad. Not to mention the environmental costs. Yet if the UK-Germany population balance had been like these in the 1930s would WW2 have happened?

  • Pete Baker

    “Do I really believe it all ?”

    Brian,

    I’d start with a comnparison between previous projections and actual figures.

    Assuming those exist..

  • David Hamilton

    Brian, you said the “big increase in oldies over youngies, bad”.

    Surely it’s the otherway round? Most of the immigrants would be in their 20’s I’d expect if current trends continue. (Based mainly on personal experience). I didn’t see anything which suggested older folk were expected in the links you posted.

    I think this is generally a very very good thing, even if it does bring it’s own challenges.

  • How worried are unionists that most of the immigrants are polish catholics!

  • Suilven

    How worried are SF about Polish Catholics not buying their uber-nationalist shtick that they want them declared non-Catholics for PSNI recruitment purposes, Blinded?

  • Ulsters my homeland

    “[i]How worried are unionists that most of the immigrants are polish catholics! [/i]

    LOL @ blinding. what makes you think they will refuse Unionism?

  • Dewi

    Big Wow! Small is cool. And richer.

  • Quagmire

    “Not to be outdone, NI will almost hit the 2 million by 2031”

    Northern Ireland will not exist at this stage. Ireland will be a 32 county Federal Republic by 2025 never mind 2031. I saw it on star trek.

  • Wayne

    galactic stuff Quagmire

  • Rooster Cogburn

    Golly, the things people in dank, wet islands in the North Atlantic do to keep warm at night . . .

  • sammaguire

    ”How worried are unionists that most of the immigrants are polish catholics!

    LOL @ blinding. what makes you think they will refuse Unionism?

    Posted by Ulsters my homeland on Aug 26, 2008 @ 11:46 PM

    Did the Italians embrace unionism?

  • It was Sammy Mc Nally what done it

    2016 – The Year of the Fenian? Perhaps. But Belfast will turn in the next couple of years if it has not turned to the Green side already.

    Surely some demographers should get off their fat arses and work it out – as mentioned before its the elephant, that although not in the living room yet, but rather, has turned the corner into the street, and is coming up the path.

  • steve

    good luck you doomed fools

    my wee province is 2.5 times bigger than the whole UK and we only hace 1.2 million citizens and its already feeling crowded

    it is good to be Canadian

  • Brian Walker

    David Hamilton you say:
    “Brian, you said the “big increase in oldies over youngies, bad”. Surely it’s the other way round? Most of the immigrants would be in their 20’s I’d expect if current trends continue. (Based mainly on personal experience). I didn’t see anything which suggested older folk were expected in the links you posted.

    Brian, you said the “big increase in oldies over youngies, bad”.

    Surely it’s the other way round? Most of the immigrants would be in their 20’s I’d expect if current trends continue. (Based mainly on personal experience). I didn’t see anything which suggested older folk were expected in the links you posted.

    Brian, you said the “big increase in oldies over youngies, bad”.

    Surely it’s the otherway round? Most of the immigrants would be in their 20’s I’d expect if current trends continue. (Based mainly on personal experience). I didn’t see anything which suggested older folk were expected in the links you posted.”

    David, the trends everywhere is grey, but less so in the UK and Ireland.

    From Daily Telegraph
    Last week’s ONS figures also showed that there are now more pensioners than children in the UK, raising the prospect of a “Grey Britain.”
    But the ageing of the population is far more severe in other European countries. The combination of births and the arrival of younger foreign workers will ensure that Britain remains one of the youngest populations in the EU, the commission said.

    In 2060, some 24.7 per cent of people in Britain will be 65 or older. In Poland, the proportion will be 36.2 per cent.

    The overall EU population will age sharply. Around 17 per cent of Europeans are currently aged 65 or older. In 2060 that will be 30 per cent.

    The very old will also become more common. Some 4.5 per cent of British people are now aged 80 or over, a figure that will rise to 9 per cent by 2060.

    Some 12 per cent of all Europeans will be 80 or more by 2060.

    Ireland bucks the trend (too) but only slightly, with the ratio of working-age Irish people to OAPs going from 16pc now to 43pc in 2060,” the Eurostat report states.

    Those over the age of 65 currently account for 11pc of Ireland’s population, with this proportion expected to rise to 25pc in the next 50 years. Just over one in 30 people in Ireland today are aged over 80, but this figure is expected to rise to one in 10 by 2060. “But projections of an ageing population, increasingly dep-endent on migrants in order to maintain the size of its working-age population, are a feature of all EU economies.”

  • Karlos

    Its time to ban non EU immigration. Aids Is being spread by African immigrants a fact seemingly unacceptable to the PC media and are responsible for the majority of new AID’s cases. People have enough trouble here without being made racist bigots as well as sectarian ones and I don’t think Northern Ireland is ready for or could support thousands of blacks. Theres 3000 Nigerians on the dole in Ireland so they don’t contribute anything of worth to the economy if anything black culture is responsible for the growth in knife crime in England. Its going to damage tourism to, no-one wants tocome to Ireland to see Africans on the dole. I’m not racist or anything mind you.

  • kensei

    The thing about an aging population is that it is eventually and certainly self correcting. It simply requires some serious long term planning.

  • DK

    Not to put a dampener on things, but according to the census the fastest growing group isn’t the “I come from a catholic/protestant community background” group, but the “neither” group. People from mixed marriages, immigrants, or opt-outs.

    The future is bright, but it’s not green or orange.

  • Karlos

    ‘The future is bright, but it’s not green or orange.’

    Actually DK the riots last night will be nothing compared to the race riots to come if nothings done to halt immigration.

  • Harry Flashman

    I can fully understand why some people in most developed societies have very deep concerns about immigration, in most cases indeed I have very strong sympathy for those concerns.

    The exception for me is Northern Ireland.

    Pretty much anyone from anywhere else in the globe would improve the gene pool in Northern Ireland.

  • David Hamilton

    Brian,

    You said in response to me, “David, the trends everywhere is grey, but less so in the UK and Ireland.

    From Daily Telegraph
    Last week’s ONS figures also showed that there are now more pensioners than children in the UK, raising the prospect of a “Grey Britain.”
    But the ageing of the population is far more severe in other European countries. The combination of births and the arrival of younger foreign workers will ensure that Britain remains one of the youngest populations in the EU, the commission said. ”

    I entirely understand that. What I meant was, that your post is about migration to these islands. If the population is increased by millions of 20 year olds from Eastern Europe then the population becomes somewhat revitalised, no?

    This relegates the Telegraph’s analysis to an entirely separate arguement. That is to say one that seems to ignore the findings of the report you helpfully blogged on!

  • Nomad

    Karlos!

    Theres 3000 Nigerians on the dole in Ireland so they don’t contribute anything of worth to the economy if anything black culture is responsible for the growth in knife crime in England. Its going to damage tourism to, no-one wants tocome to Ireland to see Africans on the dole. I’m not racist or anything mind you.

    What makes you think Africans are inherently unable to work in Ireland, except for perhaps poor governmental rules or over-regulation. I work with many Nigerians in a law firm in New York (right now) and we all do the same thing. They’ve been here for a year or sometimes 10 years and paying much to the IRS. When I return home I hope to see a similar diversity. People will always want to work and pay tax provided naturalisation doesn’t get in the way.

  • Karlos

    Nigeria has been reknown for fraud especially internet fraud so its safe to assume Irelands 18% unemplyed Nigerians are at best scrounging off benefits or at worst criminal fraudsters.

    Its dangerous to say blacks aren’t criminals as thats why there are as many stabbings in England. People are afraid to criticise black culture and police are scared to stop and search them for fear of being labeled racist.

    I don’t think Africans offer anything to the community here the Chinese community at least has its restaurants and what little Chinese new year clebrations there are in Belfast. Nigerians don’t have anything to offer the community or economy.

    Theres enough unemployed people here already get them to do the shit jobs.

  • Observant

    http://www.bebo.com/Profile.jsp?MemberId=2736677186

    Just so long as they know their place?

  • Nomad

    First of all I think your post should be deleted.. second I think you’re a racist and I’m not engaging in this with you anymore.

    To clarify: I don’t think it’s safe to assume anything about someone because of the country they come from or colour of their skin. Also: Black culture not necessarily the same as black people. Oh, and for good measure, the Chinese community of NI has a lot more to offer than the cuisine you enjoy.

  • Karlos

    If you saw someone wearing a Rangers top or a GAA top you’d make assumptions about them tahts what people here are like if you didn’t live in New York you might know. The number of Blacks in Belfast has increased significantly in the past few years and they can’t simply put on Orange tops and be ignored.

    Its a fact that blacks are stabbing each other in England. AIDS is also being spread by African immigrants. Not engaging or deleting my post doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. Nor does the fact that I’m concerned about it make me a racist.

    Immigration is the most serious issue facing Northern Ireland today and the media and politicians wouldn’t be able to pretend the blacks here don’t exist for much longer.

    I’d vote for any major party that would stop immigration regardless of religion.

  • IJP

    Brian – I would agree with the note that asks for previous projections, and with the underlying point that these projections need to be taken with a BIG note of caution.

    I clearly re-call the last set of such results projecting massive growth for France (to 75 million by about 2030, I think) and hardly any comparatively for the UK (about 65 million by then), leaving France clearly Europe’s largest economy and probably highest population.

    The only constant has been Germany’s projected decline, although even that, I thought, was supposed to have happened by now (I remember hearing before German unification that the UK would be the most populous country in the EU by 2010 – but actually Western Germany and France are ahead of the UK currently, and I don’t see a dramatic turnaround in the next 18 months!)

    The truth is birth rates and migration rates are impossible to predict remotely accurately.

  • IJP

    By the way, I remember the last UK census was something of a surprise as 1 million people “disappeared” – I think that was partly because the census was a disorganized shambles, but also because we underestimate how many (often well qualified) people are leaving the UK annually too.