Labour facing a sticky future…

Iain Martin in Sunday Telegraph suggests that “the downfall of this government is a historical wonder”.Indeed. Even the British PM’s stoicism seems to drawing him to full stretch. But Labour to survive next general election (widely touted to be mid 2010) in a credible numbers, the party’s survival might rest on getting in new blood whilst there is time. Comparisons have ranged with illfated PMs from Eden to Major. But is the real problem the need to transition from an Iain Duncan Smith to a Michael Howard, if only to limit the damage. More at Brassneck.

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  • kensei

    The sky is falling!

    Somewhat over the top commentary, I feel. If the resurgence of the Tories shows anything, it’s that writing over a political party for a hundred years or declaring the death of an entire political movement is somewhat foolish. Certainly at this stage, anyway.

  • Rory

    Tiny hiccup. Little Tory thrill. Less thought. Much hyperbole.

    No “downfall”. No “historical wonder”.

    Silly journalist. No wonder.

    I do hope to be serialising my own insightful account of the Blair years – The Day I nearly met Alistair Campbell in Starbucks – on Slugger (finalisation of fee negotiations permitting) in the very near future and I would advise analyists to hold off from judgement until that soon to be historic account is revealed in full.

  • Dewi

    It was Brown’s machinations over that “snap” General Election that lost any faith I had in him – a pathetic episode of procrastination. This latest Scottish stuff however is more serious for him – Alexander might not survive and will undoubtedly reveal her version of any conversations she had with Brown.
    He’s in a way a victim of decades spent in politics – it corrupts you – but I have to say that having read Bower’s book Blair’s “psychologically flawed” descriptions hits a chord. And he’s not sleeping. and his finger is on the button.

  • Mick Fealty

    Dewi,

    Indeed. More than that, it is the fact that he spun the story for his own effect, and actually got journalists to believe him. That ‘deceit’ is what’s driving some of that editorial rage at the moment.

    I take Ken’s point about hyperbole of century in the wilderness, but I suspect that is intended to snap Labour insiders out of their current state of denial.

    Cameron has his own searching questions to be asked, but without a fight, the media will simply continue to pursue what they believe to be a wounded quarry trailing blood.

    Rory, on the final negotiations, let’s settle for the same terms we agreed last year! 😉

  • kensei

    Indeed. More than that, it is the fact that he spun the story for his own effect, and actually got journalists to believe him. That ‘deceit’ is what’s driving some of that editorial rage at the moment.

    I’m not so sure that’s the whole story, Mick. There is undoubtedly annoyance, but I get the sense the media is happily playing out the story they were desperate to do before Brown’s decent few months took them by surprise.

    The election thing was damaging but would have passed; Brown really got overtaken by events outside his control. He always has to contend with resurgent Tories, and I’m not so sure that Balir would have fared particularly better at the last election. There was a sense of disatisfaction with Labour, but no sense the Tories were worth a punt.

    You are also right that Cameron has his own questions. The “decentralisation” theme is to me at this point a fad without intellectual succour. Look, the internet! It’s a big decentralised system that’s brought about real change! Let’s compare to it and talk about analogue and digital and stuff!

    This misses that the decentralised internet is actual built on number of very standardised and centrally controlled protocols, and the that has big consequences, particularly when people want to move from them. Then there are issues of integration points, how systems interoperate and how ideas exchange and diffuse. It is potentially a very worthwhile thing, but a multilayered and difficult problem, and I’ve yet to see any attempt to seriously tackle how it would be implemented or applied to some of the places it’s been suggested. Until then I refuse to take it at all seriously.

  • Dewi

    Kensei – not sure Brown is all there – at least at the moment. The word is he’s working 20 hours a day on detail – not good.
    He asked for payslips to be produced in Cabinet as evidence for this 10p thing. That ain’t (hmm) strategic.
    Scotland a total shambles.
    Don’t think he’s up to it.

  • kensei

    Kensei – not sure Brown is all there – at least at the moment. The word is he’s working 20 hours a day on detail – not good.

    Yes, and he’s also secretly roaming the streets setting up illegal fight clubs and plans to blow up the banks to set us all back to year zero.

    I heard he was born in a mental hospital.

    He asked for payslips to be produced in Cabinet as evidence for this 10p thing. That ain’t (hmm) strategic.

    He spends 20 hours on detail, was ten years in the Treasury and doesn’t know who lost and how much to the penny? My bullshit meter just exploded.

    Scotland a total shambles.

    Devolution. It’s outside of his control largely. That is how it’s supposed to work.

    Don’t think he’s up to it.

    He’s made mistakes. He’s also been forced into a few by his own party. So has every Prime Minster. What is really nixing him is events. If the economy was flying and house prices up he’d be taking much less heat. If he had to face Iain Duncan Smith or Michael Howard he’d be better off.

    You’d think the world had collapsed the way people talk. It isn’t even really that bad at this point. Dear God, imagine the reaction if the shit really hit the fan.

  • This quote from one of the Flashman books struck me as being particularly relevant, http://url.ie/don:

    Scholars of course won’t have it so. Policies, they say, and the subtly laid schemes of statesmen, are what influence the destinies of nations; the opinions of intellectuals, the writings of philosophers, settle the fate of mankind. Well, they may do their share, but in my experience the course of history is as often settled by someone’s having a belly-ache, or not sleeping well, or a sailor getting drunk, or some aristocratic harlot waggling her backside.

  • picador

    Labour facing a sticky future…

    What a let-down! I saw what I thought was a witty, if a little predictable, title to a post only to find that the thread concerns the British Labour Party and not the Irish one.