As P O’Neill points out at Irish Election, it’s not as if there is an election in the offing, but perhaps the most interesting figure from the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll is the apparent confirmation of a collapse in support for Sinn Féin in Dublin. Some detail from today’s Irish Times [subs req]
The baseline figures for the core vote of the parties show that the worst region for Fianna Fáil is Dublin, where the party has lost a third of its support since the last poll in May. There has been a corresponding increase in support for Fine Gael and Labour in the capital. In Dublin, Fianna Fáil is now at 26 per cent (down 12 points), while Fine Gael is running at 23 per cent (up 10 points) and Labour at 14 per cent (up 4 points). Apart from Fianna Fáil, the other big loser in the capital is Sinn Féin, which has seen its support more than halved to 5 per cent since May, while the Greens have suffered a significant drop to 6 per cent. There were far fewer undecided voters in Dublin than in any other region of the country.
Also from the poll
The adjusted figures for party support compared with the election outcome are: Fianna Fáil, 33 per cent (down nine points); Fine Gael, 31 per cent (up four points); Labour, 15 per cent (up five points); Sinn Féin, 7 per cent (no change); Green Party, 5 per cent (no change); PDs, 2 per cent (down one point); and Independents/others, 7 per cent (no change).
The silver lining for the Government is that the Green Party has held on to the support it achieved in the election and its new leader and Minister for the Environment, John Gormley, has a solid satisfaction rating.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. It was taken after a succession of difficulties for the Government ranging from the Taoiseach’s evidence at the Mahon tribunal to problems in the health service, the row over Shannon airport, the pay rise for Ministers and the provisional licence debacle.
The core vote for the parties compared with the last Irish Times poll just before the election in May is: Fianna Fáil, 30 per cent (down nine points); Fine Gael, 22 per cent (up one point); Labour, 10 per cent (up two points); Sinn Féin, 6 per cent (down two points); Greens, 4 per cent (down one point); PDs, 2 per cent (up one point); Independents/ others, 5 per cent (up one point); and undecided voters 20 per cent ( up five points).