Early election option improves

The results are in. Gordon Brown and Labour can be relatively content holding on to both seats (even with reduced majorities). Menzies Campbell and Lib Dems (except for those plotting against Campbell) can be content in seeing off the Tories even if an 18 year winning streak is over. The big losers were David Cameron and the Conservatives failing to overhaul the Lib Dems even in Ealing where the Team Cameron plan was put into full operation. Going early must look a bit more tempting this morning?Another electoral trend of note is the BNP gaining 9% in Sedgefield at their first attempt, while FPP hampers their growth in elected representatives, MEP(s) continue to look a possibility.

  • Gerry Lvs Castro

    That’s great news — and about time we had another election. In fact some of the lucky local candidates won’t even need to put up posters, as the last lot are still up there.

    Regarding the BNP vote, the main parties really need to look at this trend. It’s rather doubtful that Nick Griffin’s sauve good looks and flawless oratory are attracting the masses — there just may be a problem with apparently unlimited immigration no?

  • kensei

    Nick Robinson doesn’t reckon it’ll happen:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2007/07/election_fever.html

  • George

    Brown would be mad to go early when he can rule with a comfortable majority for the guts of three years as it is.

    Gerry lvs Castro,
    Funny that if immigration is the issue, the BNP gets this vote in a constituency that I believe is nearly 99% white while they don’t even run one in Ealing, which most certainly isn’t.

  • Ginfizz

    George

    There is no uniform pattern to the BNP vote. While the BNP seems to draw votes from solidly working-clas and diverse communities where there are strong inter-racial tensions i.e. Barking and Dagenham, Oldham, Saddleworth etc. it has on occassion polled well in 99% white constituencies in the South East and as in this case, the North East.

    They do well at by-elections and in localised areas, but come the big one they always sink without trace. Incidentally, one big positive about First-Past-The-Post is that you wil never, ever see a BNP Member of Parliament elected.

  • It is the fear of immigrants rather than the reality that makes some folk vote for the BNP. It is also a mistake to believe the BNP’s core support base is the working class, indeed in the areas like Dagenham it is the working class vote that is keeping the BNP out, as it is mainly what are insultingly called the ‘underclass’ and the lower middle class who have voted for the BNP along the Thames rim.

    This is especially true of the lower middle class as you move east from London, as many of them can be described as the white flight, i e those who fled london in the childish belief that black people did not have similar aspirations to better themselves by moving out of the inner cities.

    The current leader of the BNP, unlike all of his predecessors as would be British Fuhrer, has woken up to the fact that the core support base of European fascism has been the lower middle classes and a section of the professional classes and unfortunately he has been aiming his party propaganda at this group.

    It always makes me smirk and angry when middle class people, in a patronizing manner claim that it is the WC who support nazis. For whether in Germany, Italy, Spain, and indeed in the UK and Ireland [remember FG and Blueshirts], it has been the working class who have been the bulwark against fascism, for the simply reason we have most to lose if the Nazis gain any power.

    Still, thankfully in my view they do not have a hope in hell of gaining power, not least because if there was a market for right wing politics, the UK conservatives would quickly move across to that ground as Thatcher did in the 1980s, which cut the ground from under the NF feet.

    ————————————————–
    Read about the Turkish General Election at http://organizedrage.blogspot.com/

  • Crataegus

    Gordon has 3 years to run before the next election, would the prudent lad gamble that. I doubt it, 18 months out maybe 3 years no.

  • DC

    “Gordon has 3 years to run before the next election, would the prudent lad gamble that. I doubt it, 18 months out maybe 3 years no.”

    Yeah a bit of political bluff will do backed up with concentrated propaganda over how he will call an election but doesn’t really seem to need to.

    Bluff will suffice the purpose of ever calling an election so soon, unless he really needs to prove his worth.

  • Crat,

    I agree, I cannot really see the point of him going to the polls next year, not least with the back of Bush there may well be real movement on Iraq. If he goes to the polls and wins in all probability Cameron will be on his way. I feel Brown would prefer to keep him in place as he is gradually being exposed as a very leaky vessel without much support within his own Party. His desperation was shown when he had to agree to have his chum for London mayor as no substantial candidate wanted that particular poisoned chalice.

  • Fraggle

    I don’t get the subtleties of the class system. what is the difference between ‘working class’ and ‘lower middle class’?

  • I suppose these days ıt could be a workıng class man/woman who has become a self employed person, i e tax drıver, buılder, market trader, that type of thıng or small buısnessman employing a boy and dog. At one time it may have also been a working class person who had brought their own home, although these days many WC people own their own homes.

    I suppose what make them stand out is there fear of falling back into the masses and becoming what they still are in reality, a member of the working class. As it is mainly brawn and money that has moved them out of the WC classes, this is a very real fear and as they do not value education that highly, they or their children often swiftly revert to being WC.

    I think what people who do not live in the UK and Ireland may find hard to understand is that social mobility between classes, especially in the UK is still a very rare thing.

  • Ginfizz

    Mick

    “I think what people who do not live in the UK and Ireland may find hard to understand is that social mobility between classes, especially in the UK is still a very rare thing.”

    Absolute nonsense. More kids are gaining access to third level education than ever before. More people own their homes than ever before. More people have private health care insurance than ever before.

    Education is the key to social mobility and more people now hold university degrees than ever before, despite the best efforts of a LABOUR(?!!!) government to ensure that this is not the case by the introduction of tuition fees.

    I suppose it depends how you define class, but certainly I don’t think anyone would argue the point that in the last 30 years, the “middle class” has expanded at such a rate as to include probably about 70% of the population. The expansion of the middle class is the key to establishing a stable and peaceful society.

  • George

    Ginfizz,
    Absolute nonsense. More kids are gaining access to third level education than ever before. More people own their homes than ever before. More people have private health care insurance than ever before.

    You may think this is nonsene but the facts seem to say the exact opposite.

    According to a detailed LSE survey last year of children born in the 1950s and the 1970s, Britain has the lowest mobility in the OECD and it is also declining.

    link

    For children born in the early 1980s access to higher education has widened further with the proportion of people from the poorest fifth of families obtaining a degree increasing from 6 per cent to 9 per cent, while the graduation rates for the richest fifth have risen from 20 per cent to 47 per cent.

    A survey by Edinburgh University surveyed 15,000 Scots born between 1937 and 1976.

    It found that:

    ҉ۢ Total upward mobility Рmeaning moving into a higher social strata Рhas fallen from 52.8% in the eldest group to 39.7% in the youngest;

    • Downward mobility among men has increased over the same period from 19.4% to 27.5%;

    • The post-war expansion of the middle-class has made it harder than ever for the working classes to get better high-earning professional jobs;

    • While all social groups have become more prosperous the gap between the classes has not narrowed.

    The findings mean that for the first time since the Second World War, a generation of Scots is unlikely to better the achievements of its parents, prompting concern that a lack of aspiration could damage the Scottish economy.”

    link

  • George as always is spot on with the statistics, whilst the neo cons will disagree, apart from the wretched and disgraceful UK class system, which incidentally still shocks many visitors from the US and elsewhere. The UK and to a lesser degree Ireland is struggling with the additional problem of the massive, ever widening gap between the very economically wealthy and the rest of us. Which distorts the whole economy and only an ignoramus would argue that this wealth is beneficial due to trickle down [as it just does not occur.]

    For example in London the whole economy from housing downwards is distorted due to this. But even worse it is the failure of these greedy and often criminal elements to pay their fair share of taxes etc, that will create social upheavals. Still what do they care, they will just move on to free load elsewhere.

    Ginfizz

    Not sure where you live but to beleive that private health insurance is prevelant amongst working class people is simly untrue, as its is well out of reach of an average workers wage, drug dealers or tax dodgers perhaps.

    True education is the key to social mobility, but only if their is a level playing feild, one only has to see how the middle classes have attempted to ring fence the professions [whilst condemning workers for trying to do the same with trade unionis and the MC supported Thatcherite legislation that stoped us doing so]

    If any one doubts this I suggest they take a look at the UK medical and legal proffesions, let alone the senior ranks of the British army etc.

    I say again the reason people within the UK have so few opportunities to move through the classes as they do elsewhere is because of the lack of a level playing field, especially in eduction. Just look at how the war criminal Blair paid the fares to send his son across London to school and by so doing deprived a local kid in west london of a decent education.

  • Harry Flashman

    Fine mickhall you’ve defined who the lower middle class are and in doing so proven that you are just as enamoured of the class system as any toffee nosed duke, but where are the white working class then?

    Do you still live in a 1970’s fantasy world of horny handed trades unionists, wearing flat caps and mufflers, grimly sucking on their Senior Service untipped fags as they trudge down gloomy terraced streets to work in the pit, the ship yard or the steel mill? The mythological white working class must be one of the tiniest social subsets in British society, vastly outnumbered by City financiers.

    Get over it mickhall, Thatcher won, there ain’t about to be no uprising by the downtrodden proletariat, they’re all too busy playing with their X-boxes and booking holidays in Ibiza!

  • Harry

    You sound like a bit of a racist here and im sure your not, of course the working class has changed, just as the working-classes of the 1970s was totally different to that of the 1920s the working class of today is different form that of yesterday.

    As to my being enamored with the class system, nothing as you well know could be further from the truth. We socialists wish to, if not abolish the class system then in the very least make it as ineffective as we can. Unlike the likes of Thatcher who continuously boosted the class system by her refusal to countenance reform of the UK House of Lords and her groveling to betty windsor.

    As to the white working classes they make up the overwhelming majority of working class people and no matter how much Capital and the racists wish to split working class people up into racial groups it is not going to happen, for we are well aware their purpose is to make us turn on one and another, instead of as a class concentrating our energies on fighting for a better life for all. Indeed I cannot think of a better example of why the working classes have never and will never support fascism en mass, i e there is nothing in it for us bar disaster if we were to do so

    When ever I read one of your posts it highlights just what a time warp you are caught in. You see all socialists as being Stalinist/ Leninists circa 1917-56 and you imagine the working classes to be the same as they were during the Thatcher period, when our defensive organizations like TU and political parties had suffered
    major defeats at the hands of the Thatcherites and Reagan and understandable we were somewhat demoralized and unsure politically.

    Get over it move on, today throughout the world, including the UK and Ireland working class people are saying enough and via civil society are beginning once again to put manners on the extremists who believe in Neo-liberal economics. These struggles incidentally also include sections of the middle classes, who have woken up to the fact that if we are to have a civilized society, some socialist core programs are unevitable, i e state education and health care, an integrated transport system including public ownership of railways etc..

    IMO all your email reflect is your own demoralization and acceptance of the status quo., right or wrong. In truth Harry you would have been amongst those who cheered on the Stalinist filth, for they were the power of the day and for you the power elites are always right, until the next one comes along and replaces them that is.

  • Harry Flashman

    *In truth Harry you would have been amongst those who cheered on the Stalinist filth, for they were the power of the day and for you the power elites are always right, until the next one comes along and replaces them that is.*

    Nope, not even close, I’ve said it a thousand times, I love liberal free market democracies, you know societies which respect the freedoms of religion, expression, association and the rights to private property and individual liberty.

    I love such societies now, I would love to see more of them in the future. Furthermore back in the 1970’s and ’80’s when people of your ilk were backing every looney lefty push for socialist totalitarianism (not entirely changed of course, FARC, ol’ Hugo Loco and the Castrano clan still bring a gleam to your eye) I loved free liberal democracy then too.

    I’m glad you have since come around to the idea of free liberal democracy, it took a long struggle to convince you and get you to see the light. You don’t have to thank Maggie and Ron but it seems a bit churlish not to.

    PS I am deeply offended at your suggestion of racism, my reference to ‘white’ working class was based solely on the context of their alleged support for the BNP, please desist from making such innuendoes in the future.