The loss of a Dail seat may not be the end of Sinn Fein’s electoral problems in Dublin. The general election figures when applied to the Dublin Euro constituency show Mary Lou McDonald’s seat vulnerable to Fianna Fail and possibly the Greens.FF’s growth puts them in with a strong claim to a second Euro seat. The respective party scores were:
Fianna Fail 38.75%
Fine Gael 18.74%
With a quota of 20%, the figures project 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour. (Contrary to thread claims these figures are based on the correct consituency make-up)
In the 2002 general election, SF outpolled the Greens, 8% to 7.2% and in physical votes, 40450 to 36501. This was the springboard for SF to take the European seat from the Greens with the party adding 6% and 20,000 votes to their tally. However, on Thursday the Greens effectively reversed the 2002 position taking 8.2% to Sinn Fein’s 7% and in physical votes, 41813 to 35256. So in party rankings the Greens are now fourth and SF fifth in the Dublin party league table.
The 2004 performance meant McDonald was seen as a vote getter but this week’s result puts a major question mark over that. The lower turnout in Euro elections should be some assistance to SF’s cause plus there is a pool of potential voters among the ‘Others’ and following his Dail defeat, Joe Higgins may not run as he did in 2004.