Another bump in the road ahead?

The loss of a Dail seat may not be the end of Sinn Fein’s electoral problems in Dublin. The general election figures when applied to the Dublin Euro constituency show Mary Lou McDonald’s seat vulnerable to Fianna Fail and possibly the Greens.FF’s growth puts them in with a strong claim to a second Euro seat. The respective party scores were:
Fianna Fail 38.75%
Fine Gael 18.74%
Labour 14.53%
PD’s 4.13%
Greens 8.22%
SF 6.97%
Others 8.61%
With a quota of 20%, the figures project 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour. (Contrary to thread claims these figures are based on the correct consituency make-up)

In the 2002 general election, SF outpolled the Greens, 8% to 7.2% and in physical votes, 40450 to 36501. This was the springboard for SF to take the European seat from the Greens with the party adding 6% and 20,000 votes to their tally. However, on Thursday the Greens effectively reversed the 2002 position taking 8.2% to Sinn Fein’s 7% and in physical votes, 41813 to 35256. So in party rankings the Greens are now fourth and SF fifth in the Dublin party league table.

The 2004 performance meant McDonald was seen as a vote getter but this week’s result puts a major question mark over that. The lower turnout in Euro elections should be some assistance to SF’s cause plus there is a pool of potential voters among the ‘Others’ and following his Dail defeat, Joe Higgins may not run as he did in 2004.

  • forlorn fairy

    Wasn’t she eliminated after the seventh count?

  • SuperSoupy

    FD,

    This gibberish may have meant something if you knew the Dublin Euro constituency is: Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal, South Dublin
    and Dublin city.

    Fancy trying again with figures that reflect the constituency?

  • slug

    The other thing is that I believe that Ireland’s total number of Euro MEP seats goes from 13 to 12 in 2009.

    Currently there are four constituencies, with Dublin having 4 seats and the others three. I don’t know if its been decided where that seat should be pruned, but I think that Dublin is the most likely, as of all the constituencies Dublin had the lowest quota by quite a margin.

  • slug

    Of course its likely that the boundaries could also be redrawn to allow a better balance with the reduced number of MEPs.

  • George

    Fair_Deal,
    I think you are getting more than a little bit ahead of yourself there trying to extrapolate the results from a Dáil election to a European one two years down the line.

    Especially when you consider that Fine Gael topped the poll in the last Euro elections having returned a measly 3 TDs for the whole of Dublin just two years earlier.

    Going by your logic you could equally argue that Mary Lou will top the poll in the next Euros having failed to get elected just like FG’s Jim Mitchell in 2002 in Dublin Central. This was, after all, merely the precursor to Gay Mitchell sweeping the boards two years later.

  • Gerry Kelly

    This is the begining of the end for the Sinn Fein narco terorists. The PDs are finished and Mary Harney cannot oick up the pieces, especially as McDowell won’t even be a senator. She can rejoin FF or fade away. Then FF can turn its guns on the narco terroristrs and ensure O’Snodaigh and simililar types are squeezed out. Getting rid of Morgan in Louth next time out should not be so difficult. Mary Lou fade in time too. It would be good to see the Colombia three extradited too. Who cares waht the Northern Bank robbers and McCabe cop killers think? Your day has come – and passed.

  • SuperSoupy

    Indeed. SF have lost a single seat for the first time in 15 years. It’s all over.

    Catch a grip.

    One seat lost in all those elections. Can any other party claim they’ve only lost one seat in 15 years?

    Go on give it a go – DUP? SDLP? FG? FF? PD? Lab? UUP?

    Have they lost less than one seat in the last 15 years?

    Seems SF is judged on terms others don’t apply to themselves.

  • Brian Boru

    The PDs might not be finished. Harney is a more capable leader. If she can fix the health-service by 2012 the electorate will return her.

  • SuperSoupy

    I’m sure the electorate will return Mary if she pulls off the miracle of fixing the health service as a minor isolated figure in opposition.

    Does she have her own brush? Will she advise Michael on how to keep his mop bucket clean? Will they argue over who cleans the bogs?

  • JG

    Personally I don’t think Mary doing sweet little deals for her friends in the private sector will “fix” the health service.

  • SuperSoupy

    FD,

    btw, your base analysis would indicate a SF gain in CU for the Euros.

    Going to do the sums on that? Thought not.

  • Maggot

    Super – Can any other party claim they’ve only lost one seat in 15 years?

    Did any other party boast that they were going to double their representation ?

  • Maggot/MR/Davros

    Good to see you back on Slugger 😉

  • MLM

    8/9 years ago Mary Lou was a member of the National Women’s Executive of Fianna Fail. When she saw that she would be unable to secure a candidature within FF, she turned to SF, and they took her in. Or maybe they were “took in” by her. Anyone who knows her will say that Mary Lou is a career-centred person
    When the leadership replaced the very good, on the ground and in-your-face worker Nicky Keogh with Mary Lou, it did not go down well with Dublin SF membership. Nicky was within a handfull of votes of being elected last time around. Unlike Mary Lou, he was not the type to ‘swan around’. I do believe that Nicky would have went against the tide and got elected.
    Because of this and other decisions,including those taken at the special ArD Fheis, at least 50/60 good members and core workers left SF in the last year. These were people who had put the real spade work into building the organsation in Dublin – Not your “Johnny come latelys”
    Any wonder that SF did not do as well as expected in the city as those members and workers, who had built up a reputation within their communities as being able to get things done, are no longer there.

  • MLM

    Should have read above – “Because of this and other decisions,including those taken at the special ArD Fheis, at least 50/60 good members and core workers IN DUBLIN CITY left SF in the last year.”

    Most of them formed themselves into a campaign grouping called Eirigi

  • Gerry Kelly

    Mary Lou is obviously a figure of contemnpt. A Bective babe who gets her bit of roughtwith top Provos. Because Adams knows nothing about anything except the Peace Process (a result of his narco terrorism) and has nothing to offer the South, he needs articulate Southern puppets like Mary Lou and not the cloth cap grafters. The Ballymurphy Provo boss put himself up for king of Ireland. But kings don’t gert elected in democracies. In the case of King Adams, they get skewered in TV debates.
    Sinn Fein have no future. They are not a normal party. They are and will always be unfit for government.

    The PDs are finished. Mary should probably accept the Ceann Comhairle position. McDowell really let them down by resigning in front of the cameras and then walking away like the spoilt brat that he is. With Mary in the chair, then Bertie, the cutest of them all, has the PDs shagged. Then it is time for the narco terrorists.

  • Unfortunately for MLM’s analysis, the Dublin Sinn Féin membership was aware of Nicky Kehoe’s decision not to run again a full year before Mary Lou was identified as his replacement. Many of those who left and went to Éirígí were closely involved in the attempts to change his mind or find a local replacement, and could confirm that Mary Lou’s candidacy had nothing to do with their own departure.

    Also, there is no reason to expect that Nicky would have got elected, in view of the fact that neither Dessie Ellis nor Larry O’Toole did.

  • I agree with Soupy here. Fair Deal’s analysis is nationwide and does not reflect results within the boundaries of the Dublin Euro constituency. Surely this unconnected analogy is not worthy of a lead thread…?

    SF’s vote in Dublin actually held up reasonably well and O’Snodaigh holding on to a seat yesterady was a big boost for the party after Friday’s poor results.

  • Ginfizz

    Ha! Wednesday – are you seriously attempting to suggest that no pressure was brought to bear on Nicky Keogh to stand down in favour of Tinkerbell McDonald? Don’t be so ridiculous.

    Regardless of whther or nor F_D’s analysis is spurious, the fact is that MLMcD is now a loser – much less of an electoral asset than she was before the election and in Sinn Fein, my impression is that those who don’t bring hoe the bacon in electoral terms get quickly cast aside (Mick Murphy anyone?)

  • againtthehead

    maybe being part of a UI wouldn’t be such a bad thing after all? At least people down there have the insight and ‘decency’ to reject terrorism and it’s byproducts.

    Bertie gets trawled over the coals for a few finiancial irregularities – I imagine that’s nothing compared to SF’s little ‘investments’.

    Things are looking good, the police are no longer afraid of arresting republicans (in fear fo setting off the IRA) and the our southern neighbours have backed the peace process – saying thanks for not killing anyone anymore, now leave the adults to the politics of running the country!

    Be interesting to see how SF run the north. no doubt london will tighten the belt with regards to hand-outs – so how exactly will SF pay for Irish language, education reform, north south, etc etc etc. me wonders if they are digging a big giant hole?

  • againtthehead

    ps, really interesting when you go to the RTE website that SF don’t even get so much as an obituary – never mind considered as a possible partner for government. Poor Gerry, hope big Ian passes on his condolenscees…

  • ixilate

    Let’s be objective here, and say that a delusion
    that a group of armed militants once had, that they were the true government of Ireland, has been held upto the light, and shown to be the utter nonsense that it was.

    During the troubles, the IRA were tolerated by sections of Southern Irish society, because they were seen as being the defenders of the Catholic community in the North; no more, no less.

    Most Southerners today, have more in common with the British and the Unionists than they do with a band of solidly working class, left leaning fanatics. This of course, was something that the DUP came to realise some time ago.

    If Sinn Fein were a normal party, Adams would do the decent thing and resign; but then ,again, Sinn Fein are not a normal party.

  • The main point in Dublin is that the vote for SF held up reasonably well. Sean Crowe polled 12.2% and Dessie Ellis still polled a very respectable 15.7 despite not being elected. Aengus O’Snodaigh was, of course, also re-elected in Dublin South Central and Joanne Spain increased the party’s vote by almost 3% in Dublin Mid-West (based on the 2002 general election).

    The party comfortably retained it’s seats in Kerry North, Cavan/Monaghan and Louth and there is every propect of future seats in Donegal after the party polled 21.2% and 17.5% respectively.

    There were also good showings in Sligo-Leitrim and Meath West.

    This is not the catastrophe that has been portrayed in some of the more excitable quarters. Rather it has been a stalling process nationally and the party needs to re-evaluate some of its more left of centre policies which seemed to cost it votes in the last seven days prior to the election. There is a growing feeling that the party must move much more towards the centre ground where potentially there may be many thousands of votes to be picked up in the future.

    Sinn Fein is still in a hugely powerful position in the North with over 26% of the vote and four ministers in the new government. It responds well to setbacks and this may (inadvertently) be the best thing that could have happened to the party.

    An opportunity to re-evaluate its economic policies in particular and move to a much more centreist position where it can attract potentially many more votes.

    Many have written SF’s Obituaries in the past and be proven wrong in spectacular fashion. Watch this space…

  • tobar

    “SF’s vote in Dublin actually held up reasonably well and O’Snodaigh holding on to a seat yesterady was a big boost for the party after Friday’s poor results.”

    You’ve gotta laugh haven’t you? We were told that Mary Lou was out to tackle Bertie on his own back door but she only succeeded in tickling him! 😉

  • down beat

    Northern Ireland’s people ,unwanted and unloved.

    Its unionists are disliked, patronised and viewed as spongers by the British people with whom they are in union with.

    Northern nationalists are mistrusted and barely tolerated by the people in Southern Ireland who don’t want the North to jeopardise its current prosperity.

    We don’t even like each other and can’t see that our inflated view of our owm importance is over now that we have stop our barbaric blood-letting.

    No-one wants us and we don’t care?

  • againtthehead

    nice post down beat – very true. ROI and GB can happily run their own affairs without us.

  • Tobar,

    Quote your source for that total nonsense because there was’nt a single person in SF (or anywhere else that I am aware of) who said any such thing. Bertie was always going to top the poll. The battle was for the final seat. All that drivel about ‘tackling Bertie’ is complete hocus-pocus and a figment of your imagination I’m afraid…

    You’ve gotta laugh have’nt you…

  • Wilde Rover

    “the party needs to re-evaluate some of its more left of centre policies which seemed to cost it votes in the last seven days prior to the election.”

    Surely SF needs to come up with some policies (costed) first before they would be in a position to re-evaluate anything.

    This from Chris Gaskin at Balrog, discussing his solutions to SF’s difficulties:

    “We must also remember that the electorate in most of the 26 counties are not as trusting as the Northern voters. They require and demand proper policies and proper strategies from us. It’s not like South Armagh or West Belfast where you could stand a donkey with a tricolour and they would get elected.”

    So “the Northern voters” don’t require or demand proper policies or proper strategies? Any auld sh1te put together on a laptop in a pub on a Saturday afternoon is good enough for them?

    SF’s potential Southern voters may be pleased to find themselves in the First Class suites of the good ship SF, while their trusting Northern counterparts make do down in Third Class.

  • Garibaldy

    Is it just me or does all the talk of dumping or reevaluating the left of centre policies reveal the depth of PSF’s commitment to the socialist ideology they proclaim from the rooftops when it suits them?

    It would seem that, unlike in the North, the PSF opportunists got out-done by FF, the consumate opportunists and populists.

    And as for the significance of this result. It’s not a disaster, but let’s put it in perspective. In 1989, The Workers’ Party had 7 seats, a TD, and had the second most vote in Dublin, less than 10 years after having its first TD elected, before the collapse of the USSR caused some careerists to manufacture a split.

    Despite much more media coverage, being in government in the north, and massive finances, PSF has not even matched this result. Something has gone badly wrong for PSF, and there are no signs that they have understood what it is.

  • ohdear

    Wilde Rover’s quote is a little over the top but essentially true, the Northern elctorate of which I am one, are infinately more simplistic than their southern counterparts (and are treated as such by SF – and the DUP for that matter)

    It is clear that some SF characteristics have worked against them:-
    Their simplistic policies
    Their claims of being left wing – not popular in the south
    Their own claims/propaganda about being popular in the south
    Their ‘dirty hands’ as regard to the conflict…also despite their claims not popular in the Republic.

  • kensei

    “So “the Northern voters” don’t require or demand proper policies or proper strategies? Any auld sh1te put together on a laptop in a pub on a Saturday afternoon is good enough for them?”

    Seriously, has there ever been any evidence that this ISN’T true? Really? Has policy ever mattered squat here.

    “SF’s potential Southern voters may be pleased to find themselves in the First Class suites of the good ship SF, while their trusting Northern counterparts make do down in Third Class. ”

    No. If SF get their policy act together in the South, it will come right back up here and pull in more votes.

  • Ohdear,

    I disagree with some of your assertions , however it may be worth widening the debate in reference to one point which you have made which I totally agree with.

    There is no doubt that the general electorate in The South are far more politically astute and basically far more intelligent than here in the North. Each edition of John Bowman’s ‘Questions and Answers’ on RTE is filled with the majority of audience members liberally quoting detailed data on the state of the economy, Health Service Budgets, The National Debt, Environmental issues etc..etc…

    To be honest our equivalent version (‘Lets Talk’)is an absolute embarrassment to all sections of the community here. Many audience members can barely string two words together and the level of debate is intellectually at little more than Secondary School level.

    The North has a long, long, way to go to catch up, although one would hope that the return of devolved government would perhaps go some way to educating our electorate in many of the real political day-to-day issues of which many here have little or no detailed knowledge in comparison to our Southern counterparts.

  • down beat

    ‘audience members liberally quoting detailed data on the state of the economy, Health Service Budgets, The National Debt, Environmental issues etc..etc… ‘

    Whilst on Lets Talk the usual rent-a-mob quote the usual whataboutery-and don’t get me started on the now defunct Harry Castles show-Christ talk about duellling banjos….

  • Ellie

    “Any auld sh1te put together on a laptop in a pub on a Saturday afternoon is good enough for them?”

    It seems to have worked for the Sinners so far.

    Mention…

    1. Socialism

    2. Unity

    3. How awful the DUP are.

    4. that another dreary installment of Gerry’s tedious ongoing autobiography is due for publication.

    5. How awful the UUP are.

    Throw in a few historical dates (just so we’re SURE that they know when the Easter Rising took place. Start the thing with ‘A chara’, just so we know they’re fluent in two gaelige words. Fanny around with the date ‘2016’ and stuff a few discredited socialist theories about health and education, just so we’re SURE that they’ve got a policy distinct from anyone else.

    Sorted.

    Right, Paddy, you type it up and Seany, get the drinks in. I’m off for a p*ss.

  • Maggot

    There is no doubt that the general electorate in The South are far more politically astute and basically far more intelligent than here in the North.

    We saw that when Gay Byrne hosted “who wants to be a Millionaire”

  • Maggot,

    If thats the best counter argument you can make then you are struggling badly. Have you ever actually seen ‘Questions and Answers’? If so, you could’nt possibly even attempt to argue that’Lets Talk’ contains even an iota of the same intellectual input or content…

    As for the Stephen Nolan Show, Jesus what an embarrasment that is. God only knows what tourists coming here make of this place when they witness utter low-life manure such as that…

    You need to face realities Maggot, however uncomfortable they may be…

  • Maggot

    If thats the best counter argument you can make then you are struggling badly.

    You need to face realities Maggot, however uncomfortable they may be…

    and you need to develop a sense of humor Mac!
    Difficult, I know, when the arse has dropped of your pants!

  • Ellie

    “you could’nt possibly even attempt to argue that’Lets Talk’ contains even an iota of the same intellectual input or content…”

    Well it does have a Sinner on the panel most weeks…

  • Ellie,

    A “sinner”? Are you trying to convert us then..?!!! LOL

  • Ellie

    “Are you trying to convert us then..?!!!”

    Yeah. Try switching off the idiot’s lantern and read a book instead. Or colour one in.

  • curious

    There is only one party Berti will not form a coalition with, quess who? http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0527/ahernb.html

  • lib2016

    Both the Greens and Sinn Fein didn’t do as well as expected by every commentator but they both have lots of new young candidates for the local elections in two years in contrast to Labour which is dominated by the older generation.

    Over the next decade there seems likely to be a realignment in the centre left and Sinn Fein will be part of that.

    If Fianna Fail and Fine Gael continue to compete for the centre right vote that same centre left will be the kingmakers, not a perfect situation but it will do to be going on with in the next General election

  • GavBelfast

    It seems FF and FG would go into government with the Unionists, if they could, before they would do so with SF.

  • lib2016

    “It seems FF and FG would go into government with the Unionists…..”

    …and so they will indeed, sooner than many expect. In fact members of the Reform group in Dublin joined Fine Gael quite happily and some actually became office holders in local associations. They may well still be there as I haven’t heard of them recently.

    We are all Irishmen and women after all and the border is disappearing fast, nearly as fast as the unionist majority in the North.

    Reunification is going to be an awful anticlimax for the die-hards but as the Southern elections have shown ” It’s all about the economy, Stupid” and despite earlier posts by others I’ve always found that many unionists are intelligent enough to realise where their long term interests lie.

    They do have real and understandable fears but time is a great healer, on both sides. We can do this together and no community will be strong enough to dominate the North for the foreseeable future.

  • CTN

    After the leaders debates for the first time Adams switched from mass asset to mass liability to SF.

    However the main reason for their electoral growth project reversal is that many, many election workers have resigned as a result of corrupt individuals going unpunished for very long periods, perceived leadership bungling and the shortfall in progress to re-unification.

    All of these negative factors have piled frustration onto the grass roots workers whilst the party is trapped in the St Andrews net.

    The morphing of Eirigi from Dublin based campaigns group to All Ireland political party is a massive threat to Sinn Fein as the energetic members of Eirigi will now embark on a series of campaigns and protests offering young republicans a chance to struggle against Britain outside the confines of the Paisley/Provo executive.

    Many disillusioned and ex shinners will rejoin their old comrades especially after Adams’ own goal contributed to the demise of Crowe and their
    target shortfall nationally.

    Also recent high profile resignations from Dublin City Council like Andrew O’Connell and Tony Smithers (SF’s choice to be Dublin Mayor) will hurt O’Snodaigh’s chances next time round.

    It would also be remiss to omit from this analysis
    that Daithi Doolan one SF’s young cubs tipped to have an outside chance of election was hammered in Dublin S.E with his general election vote down almost 500 votes on his local government showing with all his local area in the general election ward!

    Indeed commentators are correct to state that as a Dail candidate loser Mary Lou will find it harder to retain her seat considering the increased Green
    vote, unseating of Crowe,feel bad factor attached to SF and the rise of the repackaged Eirigi- one of whose founding members is her sister and ex SF member Joanne.

    Whilst the SF vote grew in some constituencies this does not mean they will be elected next time round – don’t forget Crowe was a poll topper!

    Difficult times ahead for Gerry & co for sure especially so since the hard men in the provos accepted disbandment only as a swop for a mass movement- as Robert Ballagh stated “that particular SF project has now been put back at least 5 years or maybe permanently”…….

  • Maggot

    Was the Rafferty controversy signifiant for Doolan?

  • CTN

    It didn’t help anyway.

    Ester Uzell picked up 600 votes running against Doolan on the murder issue alone, whilst Doolan only picked up 1500 after working the constituency for 9 or 10 years.

    I saw Doolan canvassing Sunday week ago with only one other canvasser- Rose Dugdale a SF veteran of 40 years;- this was in stark contrast to the Dublin SF of old who had dozens of eager beavers running after the candidates. Some of these highly motivated people are now in Eirigi.

  • slug

    Unlikely that Eírígí will pose much of an electoral threat.

  • CTN

    Hard to say at this stage slug they are small in number nationally but are very active on campaigns around Dublin and a recent high profile demo outside
    Stormont saw some members arrested, it is this kind of publicity that will encourage young radicals to join up.

    The danger to the provies in the short term is not really an electoral one unless they decide to enter elections (which is more likely after SF’s bad show)and some disgruntled shinner councillors defect.

    The real danger is that they will leech more members from PSF;- this is also more likely now after the said bad showing.

  • fair_deal

    Anyone writing political obituaries for a party based on a single set of election results is unwise. It is how a party reacts to a poor set of results determines the permanance or otherwise of the damage.

    Plus as the likes of SF/Greens/PDs are usually last seat battlers smallish swings can have a significant impact in their number of seats. They are more likely to be on a high or low.

    SS

    “Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal, South Dublin
    and Dublin city. Fancy trying again with figures that reflect the constituency? ”

    I know these areas are in the constiuency, that is why all they are included in the figures already.

    I’ll check the CU claim later today.

    George

    Election performances are always worth noting. They are the warning/progress signs for parties. It is what the do in response to the signs in the intervening period that determines it.

    Macswiney

    “Fair Deal’s analysis is nationwide and does not reflect results within the boundaries of the
    Dublin Euro constituency”

    Nope it isn’t the nationwide figures its the Dublin Euro constituency. Although it is maybe worth noting SF’s percentage in the Dublin area was a near match for their national performance.

  • CTN

    The shinners aren’t finished by a long shot however they may continue to loose power in Dublin a critical area for them.

    The point to remember here is not that they lost a seat but are losing many members which contributed to their target shortfall.

    As you know when people start deserting a party it can snowball as it leaves the remaining members with to big a mountain to climb especially in the context of a feel bad factor.

    The bad showing for SF was not about one days bad news but an accumulation of resignations over the years…..

  • Yokel

    There’s an easy way to expalin the change on comparative Euro figures and it isn’t anyhing to do with constituency boundaries or any of that bollocks.

    Two different elections for two different things. When it came to voting for government and involvement in government SF got a position reflective of where many felt they should be, not in power.

    It was a poor election for SF, end of. Parties have poor elections, it is neither fatal nor anything else other than a kick in the balls of reality.

  • CTN

    The SF party will always exist but their main aim of a united Ireland as THEY see it will not come about unless they are elected substantially in the 26 co’s and Dublin in particular.

    The kick in the balls of reality for them is that they will never return Sean Crowe or new deputies or even hold what they have in Dublin if (outside the election figures) they continue to lose members.

    Again I ask you to bear in mind the morphing of Eirigi (formed by ex SFers)to an All Ireland political party last week from being a mere Dublin based campaigns group.

    This new challenge to Sinn Fein to retain their dwindling number of members is critical to their status as a relevant force in Dublin more so than preparing for a new electoral outing based on their current figures- there already were a lot of
    disillusioned SF members out there before this latest black eye from the electorate.

  • slug

    CTN – wasn’t it always inevitable that Sinn Féin would lose a lot of those type of membership? In other words this was part of Sinn Féin’s evolution, really something that was going to happen?

    And aren’t Eirigi basically unlikely to make much electoral impact because there aren’t that many people in the electorate who back their analysis?

  • fair_deal

    SS

    The figures for NW Euro constituency are:
    FF 39.12%
    FG 34.87%
    SF 9.78%
    Others 7.49%
    Labour 3.10%
    PDs 2.84%
    Green 2.78%

    Based on these results with a quota of 25% FF (and even FG) would have a stronger claim to the third seat than SF if they vote managed. However, Pearse Doherty proved a good candidate in 2004, he pulled in 6% and 20,000 more votes than the 2007 perfomance. The habit of this constituency electing an independent is probably a barrier too.

  • CTN

    Sure slug, they were always goin to lose the type of headcases that run around with IRA tatooed on their foreheads and thats good for all of us.

    But according to Adams and McGuinness the incoming Sinn Fein tide would be the story of the day.

    It wasn’t – this is because the usual 200 strong cavalcade of cars to ferry voters to the polling stations wasn’t as large as usual, neither were the amount of SF workers who usually treck door to door canvassing and leafleting up to a year before an election.

    Yes Eirigi are unlikely to mushroom electorally;- they haven’t even decided to contest elections yet.

    It is the ongoing membership leeching from SF that
    will do the harm to that party’s electoral ambitions.

  • If this is the best they can come up with I don’t think they’re going to do the union much damage. The same old rhetoric, very thin on substance. Then again they’ve learned from the best.

  • CTN

    If you mean the shinners are unlikely to damage the union beano- I completely agree.

    They have no coherent strategy for Irish Unity other than hoping to get the balance of power in the 26 co’s and then out poll unionists in the north.

    This is very vague and dangerous especially when you have a party leader who is hammered in debates about the most important issue in any election anywere in the world- the economy- couldn’t Adams just have taken down a few figures on the back of a matchbox to limit his imbecility- talk about negligence!

    His impression as a statesman may be fatally injured here.

    As I said earlier he is now as much a liability to SF which is very dangerous for them as apart from their now reduced activist base he was their main asset.

    They will survive but if they continue to mess up will become an irrelevance down south, this in turn will harm them up north.

  • Southern Observer

    Northern nationalists are mistrusted and barely tolerated by the people in Southern Ireland who don’t want the North to jeopardise its current prosperity.

    This must be my twentieth posting on this subject speaking as one of those who voted to give SF the heave-ho.This is not against NI nationalism just the particular brand that SF represents.A few unionists stood stood for election in the ROI in recent decades getting a derisory vote.Yet you cannot extrapolate that ‘northern unionists are mistrusted and barely tolerated…’
    ,No-one wants us and we don’t care?,
    Not so.We passionately care about our northern brethren.Honest!.So much so that we are trying so save a sizeable proportion of them from themselves by puncturing SF below the waterline.

  • tobar

    Reading macswiney’s posts is really great entertainment! It’s great fun to read as I don’t doubt for a minute that macswiney believes every word of it.

    Regarding the reference to Mary Lou “tackling Bertie n his own doorstep”, I believe that was Garrett Fitzgerald who made that point and Mary Lou didn’t correct him. Tackle Bertie? Just only managed to tickle him and gave us all a laugh at the same time!

    Face it macswiney, donnelly, soupy, gaskin etc the majority of Irish people don’t want or support your idea of Irish Republicanism. I suppose Gerry is licking his wounds and singing the old Sam Cooke song…, the one that goes :-

    “It’s been a long time coming, but I know a change is gonna come,

    …only now the change will have to come from SF!

  • curious

    “Yes Eirigi are unlikely to mushroom electorally;- they haven’t even decided to contest elections yet. It is the ongoing membership leeching from SF that will do the harm to that party’s electoral ambitions.”

    It seems that many SF members and supporters have turned their back on Gerry Adams and joined éirígí (Irish for “arise”) in the Dublin area. Now SF will suffer the fragmentation in the south which they preventing happening in the north by the use of bully boy tactics.

    “éirígí (Irish for “arise”) is a socialist republican political party in the Republic of Ireland. Formed by a small group of socialist republican activists in Dublin in April 2006 as a political campaigns group, the organisation has grown significantly and on 12 May 2007 its members voted to become a fully-fledged political party. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Éirígí

  • Maggot

    This is not against NI nationalism just the particular brand that SF represents.

    But look at the MLAs Southern Observer:

    SDLP : 16

    SF : 28

  • rab

    The election result was certainly a setback for Sinn Fein but 143,000 First Preference Votes for Sinn Fein suggests that there is a signifcant foundation for the Party to build on over the next 5 years.
    Now that the Northern vote is in the bag, the priority is to achieve credible and relevant policies that will appeal to even more of the southern electorate.
    The hard work starts here….

  • CTN

    I agree with rab that they are not finished and their vote has risen for them to build on, but lets not forget hardline republican support for IRA disbandment is predicated on irreversible growth for SF and as curious has stated they are losing members to a new rival and are certain now after the expansion of that rival that has morphed to a political party to lose many more.

    O’Snodaigh only held on by 69 votes, after he was elected in ’02 and returned 3 coucillors in ’04 the provies expected him to top the poll.

    Now that “peace” has broken out up north with a united Ireland a long way of O’Snodaigh like many other SF candidates have much fewer workers as their eager canvassers have left the ship for more
    radical vessels or merely resigned in disgust and disillusionment.

    With Adams’s buffoonery on RTE radio and the small leaders debate being a huge contributory factor in
    SF’s reduced return to the Dail, many of those disillusioned members who were thinking of leaving
    have more reasons to do so.

    Interesting times ahead in Dublin for the provies if Eirigi do decided contest elections but either way they will still leech members from SF…

  • cold light o’ day

    “The election result was certainly a setback for Sinn Fein..”

    To put it mildly!

    “…143,000 First Preference Votes for Sinn Fein suggests that there is a signifcant foundation for the Party to build on over the next 5 years.”

    I don’t think so. 143,000 out of a voting population of how many? More laughable head burying by the Shinners me thinks! Face it rab, southern voters said (in no uncertain terms) SF just isn’t wanted about the place.

  • CTN

    Indeed they don’t cold- and a lot of damage done by their former greatest asset- good ol grizzler himself.

    Its good for all Ireland and beyond including SF members to see Adams in his true light- if Carlsberg did over-rated politicians- grizzler is probably the most over-rated in the world.

    What a time to make gaffes about MRSI instead of MRSA, getting the wrong constituencies for your candidates, play the poor mouth with prestigious holiday homes and then make an ass out yourself on the most important issue in your most important election- the economy.

    All that on top of standing over Denis Donaldson and Steaknife Scappatici for an aggregate of over
    3 decades, yet people say he is a clever man.

    Clever at impersonating John Hume alright after that his record compares very badly with the likes of Michael Collins……

  • redbull

    So this result proves that the shinners are not the All Ireland Party they claim to be. They SF would need to remove this claim from their litrature. I think that the people in the ROI have told them to stay up in Northern Ireland.
    ANOTHER FINE MESS Mr Adams

  • CTN

    Indeed bull- Adams’ ineptitude has repulsed the southern electorate, even smart republicans will admit privately the provisional movement’s amateurism and introspection have put people of a united Ireland and thus the day off its inception back considerably…

  • sean

    Just a thought…

    How long does it take before a party can ditch it’s leader without it seeming to have been forced in to doing so?

    Like I say, ‘just a thought…