Gregory: “if Nicky Keogh had stood he would have won”

On RTE, Tony Gregory is says that if the previous Sinn Fein candidate in Dublin Central, “Nicky Keogh had stood, he would have won…” Maybe, maybe not… Though what casts doubt is the poor national vote share…

  • slug

    Sinn Féin increased their share of the vote and have a good base to build from for next time. Its really quite a good result for Sinn Féin when you consider the squeeze that went on, for the smaller parties. Partly because the election had been onverted into an Enda v Bertie referendum.

  • Mick Fealty

    Good tonight, not so good considering perspectives last night. Strange that the polls (for once) overestimated their actual performance. Usually it is the other way round. Now that is a teaser!

  • Yokel

    Slug their upturn has been small and can partly be accounted for by them standing in more constituencies.

    In real terms its pretty static and in seat terms it could be actually be a loss of one or static.

  • PaddyReilly

    Strange that the polls (for once) overestimated their actual performance. Usually it is the other way round.

    Now that is really strange. I suppose that there isn’t really that much difference between a FF voter and an SF voter, and that a lot of people who talked of voting SF 1 and FF 2 ended up voting FF 1 and SF 2.

    It does seem that SF isn’t really an All-Ireland party. It is has some appeal in 9 County Ulster and County Louth, but its vote elsewhere is minimal, and personal. For this reason, it should be classed as a one issue party, standing for the removal of the border, and appealing to those who are inconvenienced by it, on either side.

  • pondersomething

    I never believed in the ‘breakthrough’ theory (some on here were predicting 12-17 seats for SF!) – but I also didn’t expect them to perform as poorly as this.

    RTE has projected them right now as heading for 3 seats, perhaps 4.

    Clearly their focus on the peace process over everything else has completely boxed them in, in terms of their appeal in the south.

    Their strategists were right in believing that doing a deal with Unionism was a pre-requisite to any significant advances in the South – but whilst it may have been a pre-requisite it was no magic bullet.

    I think voters in the republic are glad that ‘The North’ has sorted itself out, but it’s not the most pressing concern of, say, someone on a low wage trying to get by with inflated prices for everyday goods, or of someone dependant upon the decrepid health system for care.

    SF did put forward policies on other areas but they were largely uncosted and uncredible. They unwisely stepped back from their 17.5% corporation tax policy – yet pretended that this would somehow not affect their ambitious spending plans.

    Thing is, there clearly is space ‘to the left of Labour’ for an intelligent, credible left-of-centre agenda aimed at building public services, but SF have failed to provide it.

    Perhaps Labour, post-Rabbitte, may rediscover its roots and contest this ground itself?

  • USA

    I agree with your comments, but also feel post #1 from Slug makes a valid point, in that all the smaller parties seem to have been squeezed in this election.
    PaddyReilly also makes a good point about the perception in the south of Sinn Fein being a “one issue” party.
    And Yokel is correct about Sinn Fein standing in more constituencies which accounts for the increase in their number of votes.
    But overall, Sinn Fein supporters must be dissapointed. Personally I am glad to see the back of Michael McDowell from the PD’s.

  • Justmaybe

    Maybe there is something in Gregory’s comments, perhaps Mary-Lou with her fancy clothing and Trinity education did not go down well in inner city Dublin. Nicky Keogh by all accounts was a very down to earth, hard working constituency worker and was unceremoniously turfed to one side to get Mary-Lou in – can’t see that going down well.

  • willis

    Nah it was the photocall with the Doc that did for her.

  • Brian Boru

    I think the leaders’ debate was won done it. Adams came across as economically-illiterate when challenged by McDowell.

  • Gerry Kelly

    Mary Lou was a south side blow in. Gerry needs articulate puppets to cut it as neither he nor any of his knuckle duster lumpen proletarian crowd can mix it in a real debate.
    Even though Nicky Keogh is a thug, he has form in the area. He has been involved in sporting organisations and the like and so has a personal vote. And of course imnpersonators who will give him a dig out, much as Christy Burke, a Hardwicke Street flats yobo who got himself a mansion off the Malahide Road, has a local cadre. Mary Lou, like Ruane in Co Down is just Gerry’s bit of crumpet when he passes through. No roots at all.
    Sinn Fein are caught. They can put up inarticulatre dunces against Gregory and the like. Or they can put up the Bective crew who will desert them the same way DL/Labour Party deserted the Sticks. (and got massive legal settlements too).
    The politics in the North has always been beggar politics with the bowler hat and the beret laid out for droppings from their masters. The SDLP were not much different. The 26 cos is an independent, vibrant state. It does not need beggars and narco terrorists to lead it.
    It is really a pity the PDS or FF did not get a few more seats as then Sinn Fein could have been really crushed and the key to the cells of Mcabe’s killers thrown away. When men claim Irish freedom, the one they choose to lead them will never win the beggar’s broad black brimmer of the Narco IRA.

  • MLM

    Tony Gregory has been on the ground for a long time and has called this one right. After all, SF and he would have been chasing a similar target vote, so he, more than anyone, would be perfectly placed to know who was the competition against him getting re-elected.

    8/9 years ago Mary Lou was a member of the National Women’s Executive of Fianna Fail. When she saw that she would be unable to secure a candidature within FF, she turned to SF, and they took her in. Or maybe they were “took in” by her. Anyone who knows her will say that Mary Lou is a very career-centred person.

    When the leadership replaced the very good, on the ground and in-your-face worker Nicky Keogh with Mary Lou, it did not go down well with Dublin SF membership. Nicky was within a handfull of votes of being elected last time around.

    Unlike Mary Lou, he was not the type to ‘swan around’. Also unlike Mary Lou, he wasn’t one to jump in front of a TV camera at the least opportunity. Instead, he let his work with local people do the talking. I do believe, like Tony Gregory, that if Nicky, had been the candidate, he would have went against the tide and got elected.

    Because of the leadership imposing Mary Lou on the constituency, and other decisions,including those taken at the special Ard Fheis, at least 50/60 good members and core workers have left SF in Dublin in the last year. These were people who had put the real spade work into building the organisation in Dublin – Not your “Johnny come latelys”

    Any wonder that SF did not do as well as expected in the city as those members and workers, who had built up a reputation within their communities as being able to get things done, are no longer there.

  • Gerry Kelly

    Sinn Fein is not a normal political party. It is steeped in the deepest scandals, ranging from narco terrorism, cop killing, kidnapping, money laundering, disappearing people, stabbing people in pubs etc etc. Eirigi was one lump of dandruff that fell off. The Bective b job brigade and others will follow when they see there is no future down South for following Belfast ghetto dwellers.
    The SF problem is not local. It is general and fundamental. It is the same problem that led to the foundation of DL and FF and the Republican Congress and lots more. The people do not wat SF/UDA/UVF in power as they regard them as dangerous criminals. Mary Lou should fin her bit of rough elsewhere. SF is the most hated party in Ireland.

  • I think we have to look at the second preference vote in order to come to any conclusion.I am sure we will have the Gerry Adams spin on this soon.Putting aside the spin of ” it was a FF-FG race “.Sinn Fein shouldn’t be looking about for something to grasp on to for spin. Adams said ‘they will take the TIME and work for the 2009 election.’ Well Gerry, you need to look at policy with the view of a truck falling off a cliff; it doesn’t need more TIME; what it needs is a quick change in direction. Lets hope he can look at the results and learn from it. Here is where he has to change and not to use any numbers or results as a drunk uses a lamp-post, more for support rather than illumination.
    Bill Ashe