the mood of uncertainty

With the Secretary of State for Wales, etc, pondering whether to sign the restoration order for the Assembly and the DUP executive due to meet today, in the Irish Times Frank Millar reports the latest soundings on possible transitional arrangements. Adds DUP Executive meeting ends after five-and-a-half hours – “As negotiations with the British government continue, a DUP spokesman described the meeting as “constructive and good”. However, he stopped short of making any statement on the outcome of the meeting.”From the Irish Times

However, while plans are in hand for a first meeting of a new executive on Tuesday – which officials say is necessary to defer controversial water charges – some Whitehall sources conceded yesterday that the process could still “crash” at this point.

And the mood of uncertainty deepened last night with the suggestion that the DUP might think to “turn the tables” on the British and Irish governments at the last gasp by committing to powersharing while effectively setting its own timetable for its commencement. It is believed this tougher option emerged after Mr Blair flatly rejected Mr Robinson’s demand for emergency legislation that might have seen an executive appointed on Monday and then effectively “suspended” or “frozen” for a “transitional period” of two months.

Official sources refused to be drawn on the issue last night, while at the same time questioning the quality of any commitment that might be offered by the DUP to actually form an administration on a specified date in May. In advance of last night’s Downing Street encounter they had also been adamant that Mr Blair would not concede to demands for new legislation, and that any “transitional” arrangements giving a new executive a “breathing space” to bed-down would have to be within the existing legal framework.

The sources said this was because if a transitional period was actually to be presented by the DUP as an additional “testing period” for Sinn Féin, that by definition would be conditional and so no confidence could be placed in any promise that DUP doubters would be willing to see an executive “go live” even in May.

Opposition sources yesterday challenged Number 10’s insistence that, in any event, new legislation was not an option, because the House of Commons is set to rise for the Easter break on Thursday. The Irish Times was told that the government could if necessary abbreviate the recess and have it sit on Friday. However, the underlying political calculation appeared to be simply that Sinn Féin would not participate in the nomination of an executive on Monday which was to be effectively suspended come Tuesday.

,

  • The 4th paragraph above is telling.
    The Gov’t could not trust the DUP to deliver if they acceded to transitional legislation.

    The Guardian article seems to be more fleshy on the thinking within the DUP:

    “Mr Paisley who is expected to stand down next year was believed to be shocked by the strength of the executive reaction on Thursday. “It went ten times worse than we expected, and he is now looking for a big concession we do not have,” said one source.”

    however the light at the end of the tunnel maybe:
    …as long as the executive was formed at meetings on Monday and Tuesday. “So long as they cross the Rubicon, the DUP can take a breather on the bank on the other side,” one Whitehall source conceded.

    Pity the DUP can’t cheer a +ve decision and get the 90% like Adams got over a similiar difficult hurdle.
    Of mice and men?

    Peteb I was disappoined you didn’t begin your thread .. “grey smoke, white smoke” as you did when SF had their Policing Ard Fheis.

  • ingram

    Parcifal,

    The reason why Pete B did not refer to the smoke was the DUP own and operate the smoke machine, if they want pink smoke they can have it and no Plan B in the world will change that.

    That is the reality mate.

    This quote is the one you should focus upon:

    The Gov’t could not trust the DUP to deliver if they acceded to transitional legislation

    The gurantees sought by the DUP about the right to sanction or remove any party not upholding the democratic values is coded language for the removal of Sinn Fein in an 18 month battle plan.

    Ding Ding

    Marty

  • well hello martin,
    if the titilation in the blog threads was good for the SF Ard Fheis, it should be good enough for the DUP.

    The DUP are under pressure, surely?
    It must be smokin’ in their meeting 😉

    On your point, I just think the DUP need to see and realise that the old days are over; and seeking exclusion mechanisms is to misundertand the thinking within SF. Its plain silly.

  • ingram

    Parcifal,

    No my friend it is you who are mistaken.

    The DUP are only asking for what any democratic process asks for ACCOUNTABILITY.

    They are not seeking to exclude Sinn Fein , they are seeking the normal right to exclude ANY PARTY guilty WITHOUT THE WHOLE HOUSE being brought down.

    That is fair as long as everyone in the house plays to normal democratic rules and that means really helping the police and the other law and order forces. They are the rules , Sinn Fein have signed upto them just like Alliance have signed upto them.

    If Sinn Fein just want to play lip service to the rules then the DUP want Stormont to be able to expel any party not playing to the rules.

    This is just one rung upon a very very long ladder.

    Regards.

    Marty

  • Harris

    It’s about time Blair put it to the DUP! He knows that the DUP are very devious and untrustworty. Hell, within the two months that they are looking for, they might even conjure up something against Sinn Fein. This quote from the Irish Times, supposedly coming from British govt. sources, could easily have come from Sinn Fein.

    “The sources said this was because if a transitional period was actually to be presented by the DUP as an additional “testing period” for Sinn Féin, that by definition would be conditional and so no confidence could be placed in any promise that DUP doubters would be willing to see an executive “go live” even in May.”

  • circles

    Its still a sure thing that there’ll be a deal soon enough. There’s both smoke AND mirrors being used at the minute parcifal, but its like the scene in the wizard of Oz when the finally get to see the Wizard. There’s fuss and nonsense going on for the spectacle and playing to the respective galleries, but behind the curtain its a fait accompli.

  • Harris

    And to think, the DUP would toss all this away for an extra two months. If they agree by Monday, then great, get on with it.

    “But if it doesn’t, and if the governments are to be believed, then it is dissolution. That means that Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will meet next week or the week after to implement Plan B, which involves a stronger role for Dublin in the affairs of Northern Ireland.

    It means a lot else besides that would be abhorrent to the DUP and its supporters. All 108 new Assembly members would lose their pay and allowances. Stormont would shut. The St Andrews legislation, which the DUP contended did away with elements of the Belfast Agreement which were anathema to the party, would fall and it would be back to the Belfast Agreement.

    Bills for water charges would be dropped in hundreds of thousands of letter boxes.

    A £1 billion financial package of “new money” would be lost. British direct rule ministers would press ahead with scrapping the Eleven Plus primary to secondary school-level transfer tests, which unionists tend to favour.

    And were, sometime in the future, the DUP to feel it was time to share power, a new election would be required. Last night the talking continued, as it will today, and so did this brinkmanship battle for huge takes.

    All that’s really certain is that Dr Paisley has the biggest call of his political life to make.”

  • SuperSoupy

    Parcifal,

    Why the surprise? The DUP is under real pressure and might not rise to the challenge.

    This site has consistantly underplayed the difficulties that party is under prefering to focus on SF and spinning against its delivery on every issue.

    Expect no nitpicking and partial quotes later today. No multi-linked blogs and references to past statements.

    That’s just Slugger these days.

    For analysis of the challenges and difficulties facing the DUP you’ll need to look elsewhere.

    Personally, I don’t think they have shown any commitment to devolution and doubt those who may wish to move forward have the authority or ability to deliver within the terms agreed by everyone else.

    I hope that SF rejects any fudge for next week and insists the institutions form on the agreed basis or the whole thing collapses with the DUP told to crawl back in sackcloth and ashes when they have their heads wrapped round what is required of them. In the meantime things should move forward and if the DUP doesn’t like the way that transpires they should be ignored.

  • circles

    Harris I think the call has been made.
    The DUP have negotiated themselves into a corner and have to move soon. Its clear and everybody knows it, and they will. And if a bit of time is needed for tis, they’ll be accommodated.
    They need to pretend like its not a sure thing just to please hardliners, and that they can maybe squeeze something more out of it – but they won’t. They may though hold up all your points as reasony why they’re doing it.

  • ingram

    SS

    quote if the DUP doesn’t like the way that transpires they should be ignored unquote

    Some people just dont understand the reality of this process. I personally detest much of the DUP for being a bigotted orange party BUT

    How can you ignore the largest democratic party ? they have not been guilty of any offence and do not house mass murderers that the ongoing inquiries ( HET, Ombudsman, Smithwick) will reveal like an open festering wound that modern day Sinn Fein are.

    The DUP will move into Govt in the latter end of this year but only with one eye on removing the criminals within Sinn Fein who will then be forced into re organising and utilising those within its ranks with no links to agencies of the state and crimes which they have yet to be punished for.

    That does not leave much does it. LOL

    Ding Ding

    Marty

    PS Keep your eye on a week on Sunday( papers) and a few television adds next coming week opening up another hole in the past.The Hawk aint going to be happy nor the Ombudsman. LOL

  • Harris

    Marty

    “The DUP will move into Govt in the latter end of this year but only with one eye on removing the criminals within Sinn Fein who will then be forced into re organising and utilising those within its ranks with no links to agencies of the state and crimes which they have yet to be punished for.”

    So you’re saying that, the DUP will not agree to the Monday deadline, but at some point in the end of 2007?

    This is the call you’re making?

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    Ingram,

    your forte comes from real or imagined events of 20 odd years ago. When your try to get involved in contemporary events you are shown to be hopelessly out of your depth and is an indication how detached from real events you are, your potted analysis during the election, a case in point.

  • Harris, marty was wrong on the election result, and he’s wrong on this one too. His agenda is anti-SF, and he’ll tell you anything.
    Dr.Ingram stick to the haddock/scappati mate, that’s your expertise, not calling the moves here in Norn Iron.

    Aye SuperSoupy, the lack of analysis on DUP thinking on Slugger’s is simply appalling, and so obvious. I may not come here anymore.

    circles,
    nice one, I want to see the wizard.

    My own view is DUP cannot be allowed to get away with not nominating on Monday, there can be no emergency legislation passed on Monday in the House of Commons; Blair is either in charge os this process or he isn’t.
    A bedding in period after the nomination may be acceptable; but again its so weak and gutless of the DUP.

  • SuperSoupy

    Parcifal,

    A Slugger blogger went to the Guardian website today and provided the above link.

    He seemed to have missed the link that examines the internal difficulties the DUP face.

    Paisley faces rebellion over power-sharing deadline

    Though in fairness he may have had a SF press release on traffic calming measures to examine in detail for any deviation from the StAA.

    *sheesh*

  • ingram

    Harris,

    I would put the chances of agreement by Monday at 70/30 against and by Sept/Oct at 80/20 On.

    Pat,

    I made a bet with Parcifal and was 4 seats out , I paid the bet . If you check my potings on IRBB and Mick Hall will testify that I have been saying for over 2 years that Sinn Fein would sign upto policing and I have been saying exactly that on here for a very long time also.

    It`s just part of the plan.In regards to experience, I have forgotten more than you will ever know about the Ra mate.The chances of you getting back to the warm office in Stormont ON MONDAY mate are not good.

    Would you like an even tenner on it? winnings going to slugger

    Ding Ding

    Martin

  • SuperSoupy,
    That was the article I was quoting from; in my first post, but you knew that? 😉

    There’s a need for a change at the top on Slugger’s definately, some holiday time for you know who.

    SF have done the biz, now come DUP do the biz.

  • ingram

    Parcifal,

    Michel Gildernew said she would not support the police in all areas of its policing?

    How is that doing the Biz, surely you would be in favour of the bearded one throwing her out of the party?

    Marty

  • Martin
    she does not speak for the leadership, in the same way as comments from the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse in the DUP do not speak for the leadership.
    Nice try at distraction from the post which is about the DUP’s decision.
    No cigar mate!

    Another trolling day in the absence of critical thinking and analysis is it?
    Back to normal then. Dear oh dear.
    we come to expect this.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    Ingram,

    you called the election wrong, you get no points for stating the bleeding obvious at this stage.

    Well given that SF had said they would sign up to policing when the circumstances were right means that if you say it often enough ebentually you will be deemed correct. Again you get no points for stating the bleeding obvious.

    ‘In regards to experience, I have forgotten more than you will ever know about the Ra mate.’

    Yeah right. The m8 bit indicates you felt a little sting there.

    ‘The chances of you getting back to the warm office in Stormont ON MONDAY mate are not good.’

    Who cares.

    ‘Would you like an even tenner on it? winnings going to slugger’

    Why would I gamble on an event of little interest to me?

    I’ll tell you what though. You promised (on the back of tabloid sensationalism’ that you would prove MMcG was a British Agent. I’ll bet you a grand that you can’t produce an iota of evidence to back up your infantile posturing.

    A one trick pony who had his bluff well and truly called.

  • SuperSoupy

    Typical, the site gives some minimal coverage to the DUP and it’s problems and the troll resurfaces with his ‘whatabout SF etc.’.

    Funny how he reappears just as all the fictional dissident characters evaporate from the site.

  • marty,
    what the price of haddock these days?
    I’m a cod n chips man meself.

    So back on track, who thinks the DUP’s bluff has been well and truly called, supersoupy?

  • ingram

    Parcifal,

    She is a leading personality within Sinn Fein and a BRITISH MP. If Sinn Fein cannot control its own MP`s then what chance does the party have of remaining in Stormont long term ? Zilch.

    Pat,

    Ok so you dont feel confident about betting a tenner, that Ok mate. Point made.

    In relation to Martin.

    I was right about Freddy and YOU and many others doubted it, just take a look one of those doubters today on Nuzhound

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/article2385911.ece

    I wont go and list my many other successes, Martin is a protected species, watch out for the DUP asking the Ombudsman to investigate why the police were stopped prosecuting him after reaching the required evidential threshold ?

    Like the Sunday Indo said about me. He does have the habbit of getting it right. LOL

    Shame about that Tenner Mick. LOL

    Ding Ding

    Marty

    off to watch England struggle against the Israel

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    parcifal,

    the auction over the filthy lucre coming from Brown indicates that the DUP have no problem at all recognising the outcome of the election. They just need the funds to buy off the backwoodsmen who took their years of grandstanding as gospel or indeed principle.
    The ghost of Harlod Wilson must be looking at events with a wry smile, though hopefully Paisley will spare us the hypocritical gesture of walking around with orange sponges on his lapel.

  • ingram
  • Pat Mc Larnon

    No bet, no evidence, no credibility. I could have done with that grand.

  • good one pat,
    though I’m just a few years too young for Wilson, can read bewteeen the line 😉

    heard that Gerry Adams has rushed up from the Ard Chomhairle in Dublin, what dya make of that?

    Can’t find any radio links to what’s unfolding.
    Soccer/ GAA more important to your average irishman ?

  • ingram

    Pat,

    quote. No bet, no evidence, no credibility. I could have done with that grand

    quote on the back of tabloid sensationalism’ that you would prove MMcG was a British Agent

    Once more you display you lack of knowledge. The Sunday Times seperate to me and citing very high level sources reported the fact that Martin was an MI5 agent codenamed the Fisherman.

    I never claimed to prove anything? just like I never claimed to prove Freddy Scappaticci was a tout nor that the FRU burnt down Seagate or that the FRU conspired to kill with other agents of the state.etc etc

    Do they believe me today ? Yes. LOL

    What I did do was put information into the public domain which I believe to be true, the upcoming inquiries in the Republic will be yet another forum to have any new information examined and the state can defend its decision in an arena it has NO CONTROL over.

    Take a look back to the Irish News on Monday Dec 11 2000, YES SIX YEARS AGO and Years before Sir John Steven reported.

    Front page.

    Collusion to be proven by Stevens by Ingram.

    My quote This report will, I believe portray a picture of INSTITUTIONALISED COLLUSION .

    Fast forward a couple of years and Sir John borrowed MY QUOTE about institutionalised collusion.

    Not bad for my credibility.

    Remind me , what is your background Patsy

    Ding Ding

    Marty

  • martin,
    if you don’t mind I and others would like to follow today’s events. Please stop turning the thread into another phony cause celebre.
    Thank you.
    Enjoy your football.

    Pat, any links to Radio or TV coverage?

  • John East Belfast

    supersoupy

    “Typical, the site gives some minimal coverage to the DUP and it’s problems and the troll resurfaces with his ‘whatabout SF etc.’.”

    Considering the DUP’s problems are SF then I cant see why you find this surprising.

    The DUP have already signed up to power sharing with the SDLP so power sharing with nationalists is not the issue.
    They have even said they will share power with a reformed SF and hence are prepared to move on from the past.

    The issue is SF’s present posturing.

    That of course is a matter for the DUP.
    I have always believed that SF criminality was a matter for the nationalist electorate, the police and a free press backed up by holding them accountable within an assembly.

    Destroying the latter is only cutting your nose off etc ….

  • SuperSoupy

    No, the Sunday Times rubbished your claims and Liam Clarke has appeared here in person to state his piece dismissed your claims as nonsense.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    ‘Once more you display you lack of knowledge. The Sunday Times seperate to me and citing very high level sources reported the fact that Martin was an MI5 agent codenamed the Fisherman.’

    That is the tabloid sensationalism that you attached your bandwagon to, and the nonsense I referred to.

    ‘I never claimed to prove anything? just like I never claimed to prove Freddy Scappaticci was a tout nor that the FRU burnt down Seagate or that the FRU conspired to kill with other agents of the state.etc etc’

    You are a liar, you did.

    ‘Take a look back to the Irish News on Monday Dec 11 2000, YES SIX YEARS AGO and Years before Sir John Steven reported.’

    The nationalist community have alleged institutionalised collusion for decades, you eventually caught up, on the back of the Steven enquiry, a couple of years ago. Once again you get no points for stating the bleeding obvious.

    My background is the teller of the truth

  • JEB
    That’s a forward looking position indeed, commendable.
    What I’m finding hard to stomach is DUP lecturing and insisting on IRA decommissiong and SF support for PSNI. Jaysys they never stopped talking about at every opportunity. Now here they are doing exactly what was unacceptable to them regards SF:
    delaying, fudging, ducking, diving, equivocating.

    A purer form of hypocracy is hard to find for students of guile. Seems they have little mettle, but plenty of bluff with scorn.

  • SuperSoupy

    RTE is reporting Adams is on his way to meet with the SF negotiating team and then to meet Hain in Hillsborough.

  • SuperSoupy,
    I don’t think he should have done that, Adams I mean. Paisley snr refused to sit with him in No.11 to talk to Brown.
    What’s his game?
    Not much coverage, very annoying indeed.

  • SuperSoupy

    More reports of DUP backwoods men trying to prevent powersharing:

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/breaking-news/ireland/politics/article2388872.ece

  • SuperSoupy

    Pity after all those rugby and cricket threads none of the team thought to put one up for the soccer internationals.

  • SuperSoupy

    The DUP meeting is over but they are refusing to say what the result was:

    http://u.tv/newsroom/indepth.asp?id=81049&pt=n

    Sure why would we need to do it’s only our future. Talk about holding the electorate in contempt.

  • Harris

    “RTE is reporting Adams is on his way to meet with the SF negotiating team and then to meet Hain in Hillsborough.”

    Well, here comes the shite! Hain will tell Sinn Fein that the DUP will sign on Monday, but the ‘bedding down’ period will somehow find its way to May.

  • SuperSoupy

    Should read ‘why would we need to know’

  • Super,
    I guess having ruled the roost, so to speak since 1922 it must be difficult for the DUP.
    Watching 300 Spartans on BBC2, reminds me of the choices facing Unionism.
    It must feel like sharing power with spartans, the insurrectionists; yet SF have done the unthinkable by endorsing the PSNI.
    There can be no more excuses, and Paisley cannot avoid a split if the backwoodsmen won’t play ball.
    They are in a panic, but that panic has always been there covered up as they’ve been able to point the finger at SF and avoid looking in the mirror.
    Now does the emporer have any clothes.
    Momentous weekend.
    We’ve waited 85 yrs for this.
    we’ll help them as much as we can, but there are limits to what we can do to save their faces !

  • SuperSoupy

    The DUP are in a pit of their own digging and no one can get them out but them. By refusing to address these issues before the election they insisted on, they have people elected that did and do not agree to any form of powersharing being asked to endorse it. They are now desperate to avoid a split over issues they made obstacles of themselves.

    I wonder if defections prior to nomination will affect the number of ministries they would receive?

  • the DUP seem to have turned the tables on the gov’t saying, handing back the question:

    “but the question is whether people in government really want to throw the baby out with the bath water on Monday.”

    Don’t see how more time can change unchanged minds.
    Tricky aren’t they !

  • SuperSoupy

    This is really starting to annoy me. Given the saturation coverage of Sinn Fein Ard Chomhairle meetings and the Ard Fheis in the media and blogosphere the pathetic attention given to the one party that can prevent powersharing and its deliberations on the matter a mere 48hrs before the whole thing is meant to go live is ridiculous.

    Seems hoping for a SF fuck up is more important than proper coverage of issues that impact on all our lives.

  • Crataegus

    Got up early and had a walk in the Mournes. Recommend the rest of you make the most of the day.

    What the DUP will do, well they will pontificate, Blair & Hain will wobble and eventually we will hobble forward. Is it right that we can all be held to ransom by any group. NO. Does it inspire confidence NO. Will there be future stability, UNLIKELY.

    The DUP seem to have arrived at their goal and are now wondering why they wanted to get there in the first place. Life was so much easier when the UUP had to make all the decisions.

  • I’m orf to get pissed, another wasted day pandering to bigots.

  • slug

    With Sinn Féin saying they “fully support” the police and courts as Gerry Adams put it, the DUP are looking to find a way to go into devolution without seeming too keen.

  • Comrade Stalin

    This site has consistantly underplayed the difficulties that party is under prefering to focus on SF and spinning against its delivery on every issue.

    Soupy, stop whining and try to look at this objectively. The republican movement has had to transform between being an uncompromising paramilitary organization to being a constitutional nationalist party. A reasonable person would have expected that they would hit hiccups along the way. The movement that has been achieved within republicanism is unprecedented. Three years ago, nobody could have predicted that the IRA would completely disarm and SF would sign up to policing, without a single hitch.

    The DUP on the other hand merely has to make the transition to agreeing to share power with people it doesn’t like. While this is a hell of a sea change compared with the DUP’s past form, it’s just not an about turn on the same scale as the republican movement has had. The DUP get to maintain almost all of the principals they have held on to for the past 30 years, the republicans have had to jettison almost all of theirs. They have not had to disarm.

    The republicans deserve credit for a remarkable job on leading their supporters and selling the deal. Nobody could have predicted that they would do the job quite as well as they have done, it is the first time in their history they have pulled it off. As such, I think you should go easy on people who made the obvious prediction.

    On the subject of supporting the PSNI and spurning terrorism, there hasn’t been a single peep from the DUP about the UK government’s proposals to give a million quid to a group of unelected thugs who, according to the PSNI, continue to racketeer and extort their own communities. I fully support funding deprived areas, loyalist or otherwise, but no cash injection effort can ever work while the thugs are around to skim the lion’s share of the cash off the top. Unionism’s failure to confront the serious and ongoing law and order issues here, much less encourage the PSNI to go to work on them, seem to me to be a step behind the (albeit imperfect) call for support for the police in the case of, say, the attacks on rescue workers at the site of the helicopter crash in Armagh recently.

    The DUP are playing with fire here, by working to spoil the British government’s plans over spurious talk about democratic bona fides. I’m sure MI5 have files on DUP politicians and their links with loyalists. All they need to do is stick them in an envelope and send them to the Irish News. Are they prepared to take that risk ?

  • Harris

    And the worse part of all this is, Sinn Fein will go along with what ever Hain and Blair present to them. Sure they’ll pretend, for face saving purposes that, “it’s an outrage” and some rumblings of wanting “plan B”, but unfortunately, like the good passive lads that they are, they will once again acquiesce, as it’s part of the so-called “big picture.”

  • Crataegus

    By the way I believe there was a Daily Star Opinion poll for Dublin

    FF 32 (-5 since 2002)
    FG 18 (+4)
    Lab 14 (-2)
    Greens 13 (+5)
    PD 6 (-2)
    SF 7 (-2)

  • Crataegus

    Comrade

    I fully support funding deprived areas, loyalist or otherwise, but no cash injection effort can ever work while the thugs are around to skim the lion’s share of the cash off the top.

    I agree the Loyalist sink areas will never recover with these parasites. Unionists really do need to have a look at some of their own short comings

  • circles

    Go on the greens!!!!!

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    As someone who has been involved in canvassing in Dublin for the best part of a year I will state with a degree of certainty that the opinion poll is about as accurate as the polls conducted before the Assembly election and about as certain as a few of the pundits on here.

  • Yokel

    Goose…gander

    SF: WE agree to support the police and the structures of law & order in principle, but we will actually give power over the timing to make the offical announcement to our leadership council at a time of their choosing.

    DUP: we agree to devolution & power sharing in principle, but will announce exactly when we go in at a later date.

    How strangely parallel………

    Mr Ingram, promising revelations in the media? Just make sure they are good.

  • Crataegus

    Pat

    I must confess a degree of skepticism myself, but there does seems to be a trend. Which part do you think is out the most?

    FF 32 (-5 since 2002)
    FG 18 (+4)
    Lab 14 (-2)
    Greens 13 (+5)
    PD 6 (-2)
    SF 7 (-2)

    Also the it is one thing being up and quite another being placed to take advantage. If this is anywhere near right FG, Labour and Greens will form the next government. IF IF IF

    A lot can happen in a few months.

  • Rubicon

    SS – you ask if the DUP will loose ministers if they split. The answer is no. Party strengths for d’Hondt purposes is counted according to the register Members signed on the first meeting of the Transitional Assembly that occurred after the election.

    (You might also remember that Paisley has a number of signed resignation letters in his pocket).

  • SuperSoupy

    UTV are report 90% support for the DUP resolution to be released later.

    Can we expect resignation?

    They are also reporting a 6 week suspension after Monday.

  • Yokel

    If they lose willie mccrea, whos moaning?

    Look on the bright side!

  • Rubicon

    If it’s a 6-week period Reg Empey’s speculation has been wide of the mark (hardly a surprise). The 6-week period is in Paisley’s hands, he just needs to; take the oath of office, nominate his ministers and then resign later in the week. No need for emergency legislation.

  • Yokel

    And blow my devolution bet Rubicon….super…..

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    crat,

    I can only speak of Dublin, I believe SF will win at least 5 seats there.

  • Rubicon

    Did you bet against restoration Yokel? I know of a couple of characters who’ve done just that but they don’t look at ease 😉

  • Yokel

    The DUP have come out urging an extension. One way or another that bet may be a bit more rosy.

    I think everyone banked on extension. Its whether Tony takes a fit of pique.

  • Sean
  • Rubicon

    BBC now reporting the DUP will agree to retoration in May “if the government will agree to push back the deadline for six weeks.”

    If true, this must be the most pathetic demonstration of “it weren’t ne gov!” yet seen. If Paisley wants 6 weeks he can have it – but not without nominating ministers on Monday. Slippage on that requires change to primary legislation and a lot of egg on faces.

    For what purpose?

  • Rubicon

    Yokel – you might be right about your bet looking a little rosier – but why would the British go for it? (apart from allowing you to collect from the bookies), Why can’t the DUP nominate ministers on Monday – but they can in 6 weeks? In 6 weeks the same issues will re-emerge.

    It’s looking very like the DUP have lost their nerve. Are they hoping for a Queen’s shilling in 6 weeks?

    The image that comes to mind is of a psychopath holding a gun to his head shouting “I’ll shoot – I will – I’ll shoot and blow my f*cking head off – do what I say! I want a car, I want a plane …”

    Oh dear ;(

  • Yokel

    Bear in mind Rubicon, if London say no the DUP will have to shift policy overnight and go for devolution on Monday, possible but unlikely. Big Ian and the lads have made the bet very very likely short of an about turn or some genius plan to claim devolution on Monday which would have to be cobbled together in no time.

    Every party wants the money its just that the DUP are doing the most moaning about it and looking undignified in the process. Have no doubt Adams wants the money as well but he’s wisely letting Paisley look like the ungrateful beggar.

  • Crataegus

    Pat

    Thanks just curious.

    I assume the 5 seats are Dublin SW; SC ; Central; North West & North East.

    It wouldn’t take much of a drop in their vote for FF to loose a lot of seats in Dublin.

    That said I think the election is wide open.

    I expect SF and Greens to gain a few but nothing spectacular. FG & Labour don’t seem to be making the progress they need to. But in truth the election is a series of battles in each constituency and trends can be very misleading when considering possible results.

  • SuperSoupy

    While not a fan of polls as they consistantly underestimate SF support, those posting from the Daily Star above may be interested to hear tomorrows RedC Sunday Business Post poll will show SF on 10% up 3%.

  • SuperSoupy

    Full figures from RedC poll (figure in brackets is last month’s position):

    Fianna Fail- 36% (38%)
    Fine Gael- 23% (22%)
    Labour- 12% (14%)
    Greens- 8% (8%)
    Sinn Fein-10% (7%)
    PDs 3% (4%)

  • Roisin

    From the second Guardian article:

    [i]The two month delay would give the DUP the time they want to decide if Sinn Féin was fulfilling its promise to co-operate with the police. But sources are increasingly worried that Mr Paisley is losing grip of his executive as a succession battle starts between Peter Robinson and the more hardline Nigel Dodds.[/i]

    It would benefit whoever is favourite to be appointed interim FM to have Paisley take office then resign.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    crat,

    agree with your post entirely.

    The great enigma of Irish politics is the durability of FF. How they do it is quite amazing, What I would say is that this is a defining election (I know yet again) for the PD’s. The figures I saw has Harney gone and by quite a margin.

  • Henry94

    The RedC poll is a good one for Sinn Fein plus a local poll shows them making a surprise gain in Cork East.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    Henry,

    I believe there is increasing confidence of 2 seats in Cork.

  • SuperSoupy

    Henry,

    The local paper, the Evening Echo, is predicting SF gains in both Cork East and Cork North Central.

    Though of course you will are more likely to see the negative polls appear on Slugger.

    Some readers may be in for a shock.

  • Crataegus

    Pat

    Like you I cannot understand FF’s appeal.

    Does look like Mary is gone. Last time, if memory is correct, she needed FF transfers. If FF vote is down she is in trouble. The PD’s had a fair amount of luck last time this time they may be down to what 4 TDs? FF scraped in in a lot of seats and even a small drop in Dublin is serious.

    Should be a lively election. Still think FF Labour the most likely outcome but early days.