Blogging in South Antrim

Last Friday night South Antrim UUP selected incumbent David Burnside, and Councillors Danny Kinahan and Stephen Nicholl to fight the Assembly election. Details on Stephen’s blog.

  • fair_deal

    What is the thinking behind
    1. 3 candidates with 2 UUP quotas or less?
    2. 2 new candidates with an clear Antrim base and the incumbent with a perceived Antrim base?

  • Observer

    It’ll be interesting to see how Burnsides vote holds up.

    He’s been particularly quiet these days & indeed sidelined by Empey.

  • Balloo

    FD

    Running 3 candidates would have worked fine in South Antrim if they had struck up a geographical balance and incorporated the Newtonabbey areas into their thinking.

    They haven’t done that. It will now take a lot of work on the ground right across the constituency to get 2 candidates returned, never mind the 3rd.

  • the sparrow

    Agreed with observer that Burnside has had virtually no media coverage since his embarrassing Westminster defeat in 2005. I am not sure what coverage he is getting in his local press but a friend from Antrim town assured me it was pitiful.

    Paul Girvan and the DUP look set to clean up pretty much all of the Newtownabbey votes and look set to take the 3 seats.

  • Presumably Kinahan’s selection is an attempt to stop them losing moderate voters that previously backed Jim Wilson to Ford.

    Oh, yes, of course, this is the Ulster Unionist Party so strategic thinking wasn’t in anyone’s mind. Danny probably just made a good speech or something.

    See my rebuttal at http://sluggerotoole.com/index.php/weblog/comments/why-three-candidates-wont-hurt-the-uup/ to understand why selecting three is stupid for the UUP

  • Paul Girvan and the DUP look set to clean up pretty much all of the Newtownabbey votes

    Well, except for the ones that vote Alliance or SDLP or Sinn Fein of course…

  • the sparrow

    I didn’t say all but instead “pretty much all”.

    Stupid point from the alliance who look set to lose a seat.

  • Observer2

    Is this the same stephen nicholl who told SOT that he was going to challenge trimble for the leadership, but ran away instead.

    I wondered what happened to him

  • steve48

    Thats going back a bit though I didn’t run away I was asked to step aside for another candidate which is an entirely different scenario. Nice to see some people still have a interest in what I’m at though.

  • pete Whitcroft

    Kinahan and (if Dup don’t balance their vote)Burnside will get in.
    1SdLP 1SF 2/3DUP 1/2 UUP.
    Ford gone.

  • the sparrow

    pete w,

    Are there 2 nationalist seats in S. Antrim up for grabs? Could be very tight.

  • Observer2

    Thats going back a bit though I didn’t run away I was asked to step aside for another candidate which is an entirely different scenario. Nice to see some people still have a interest in what I’m at though.
    Posted by steve48

    Errr steve there was no other candidate if i remember right.

    If you say youre gonna do something do it, dont run away

  • steve48

    The other candidates were David Hoey and the guy form Upper Bann.
    I was asked to not to run in favour of David Hoey.

  • Observer2

    #

    The other candidates were David Hoey and the guy form Upper Bann.
    I was asked to not to run in favour of David Hoey.
    Posted by steve48 on Jan 18, 2007 @ 03:04 PM
    – david whoeY?????

  • I didn’t say all but instead “pretty much all”.

    I know. And you’re still wrong. http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/lgnewtownabbey.htm#al – 34% in Antrim Line, 41% University (to be fair probably higher in the bit in South Antrim) and even 56% in Ballyclare does not mean “pretty much all”. Even if you follow the DUP’s usual practice in elections and decide that votes cast by Catholics don’t count.

    Stupid point from the alliance who look set to lose a seat.

    Even stupider point – I’m an Alliance supporter but I hold no official position in the party; do you really think someone as abrasive and offensive as me would be an official spokesman? Besides, we should be in better shape than last time with old stagers like Jim Wilson and maybe Donovan McClelland not around and the UUP running three and helping us enormously with those vital stray transfers.

    Put it this way, we’ve got a vastly better chance of holding Fordy’s seat than you have of taking three; and it’s not impossible you’ll take three.

  • pete Whitcroft

    Sparrow
    Mitchel will hit quota and I think Burns will scrape in when McClelland is eliminated.
    Ford’s distribution will have helped Kinahan, Burns and McClelland in that order.

  • the sparrow

    You say your not in alliance but you refer to them as “we”?

    I am not in the DUP and not from South Antrim.

  • the sparrow

    It should be an interesting constituency to watch, but there is a lot at stake for Mc Laughlin if he doesn’t pull out all the stops.

  • BonarLaw

    Whatever happened to the former MLA, Duncan Shipley-Dalton?

  • the sparrow

    You used to see him on here now and again.

  • Mitchel will hit quota and I think Burns will scrape in when McClelland is eliminated.
    Ford’s distribution will have helped Kinahan, Burns and McClelland in that order.

    Pete – that means you think the Shinners will put on over a thousand votes in South Antrim. Do you think that will reflect an NI-wide trend or will be a local thing?

    Also, you think Ford will come below Kinahan and both Stoops?

    You say your not in alliance but you refer to them as “we”?

    No, I didn’t. I said I didn’t hold any official position. Jesus, Mary and Holy St. Joseph!

  • the sparrow

    Sammy the point is stop pretending you are impartial.

    Nobody on this site is!

  • south antrim voter

    Pete I seem to recall that you were amongst the many who predicted that David Ford would lose his seat last time too.

    I remember the live lunchtime interview on the Friday of the count where Meehan was declaring victory with David standing next to him saying that the count wasn’t yet over and that he believed it would be very close. Even then Meehan couldn’t take the hint that David Ford is renouned for being able to call the result properly long before anyone else can, and that if he were saying that he knew he was likely to hold on !

    I predict the same result this time, though Mitchell is unlikely to be standing declaring victory live on telly – he’ll be half way back up over the Glenshane to Derry by then.

  • Crataegus

    If SF are at quota SDLP will be about 10% and split, and Ford may then get in on Unionist transfers. If SF stick at 11-12% and say SDLP similar but split it all depends if Ford is below the lowest Unionist if not he may just get in on transfers. If he is out first his transfers will go Unionist and SDLP. Much depends on the internal dynamics in SF, and the fielding of a blow in factor.

  • middle-class taig

    “you think the Shinners will put on over a thousand votes in South Antrim. Do you think that will reflect an NI-wide trend or will be a local thing?”

    Interesting question. I think the SF in Aouth Antrim vote has established itself as pretty stable – even Henry Cushinan put on votes between the Assembly 2003 and Westminster 2005, and in 2005 there was nothing for nationalists to vote for. His vote also reflected a significant swing from SDLP, although that may have been tactical voting for Burnside from SDLP voters.

    I’d have said 1,000 extra for Mitchel would be a good target. In three years, I reckon there’s probably been growth of about half that around Crumlin, Randalstown, Glengormley and Toome (althoug, not sure how much of that’s on the Derry side). And I think that Mitchel should expect to be able to wrest about the same number from the SDLP. He’ll also be that wee bit more likely to get a few dozen SDLP and unionist transfers than Martin Meehan.

    The nationalist vote is getting close to two quotas. I’d be interested to know if any candidate in an assembly election has been as close to a quota on first prefs as Meehan and still not been elected. Although, Mitchel may have trouble holding that seat. The proposed boundary changes do nationalists few favours.

  • Sammy the point is stop pretending you are impartial.

    I never did. At the same time I’m not the authoritative voice of Alliance on Slugger, either. I’m just a fairly rapid partisan cheerleader.

    Much depends on the internal dynamics in SF, and the fielding of a blow in factor.

    Spot on Crat. The UUs fielding three helps Ford enormously – with Burnside likely to top the poll, one or both of the others will be a little stranded.

  • pete Whitcroft

    Sammy Morse

    Point taken, I think when McClelland is eliminated Burns will be ahead and be helped along with Kinahan by Ford 2nd,although McClelland may get ahead of Burns.

    South Antrim Voter

    Let the history books not forget that,
    I inspired and implimented ” Ford or Meehan You decide” despite my doubts.

  • south antrim voter

    Yes Pete, I know you did, but you did predict that David would lose. Nowt wrong with that. I’ve slogged away for many a candidate that I thought was unlikely to win, on some occasions I’ve been disappointed to be proved right, on other occasions I’ve been delighted to be proved wrong.

  • carnmoney

    MC Taig
    I’d be interested to know if any candidate in an assembly election has been as close to a quota on first prefs as Meehan and still not been elected.

    I don’t know about ever, but Martin Meehan certainly won the prize for highest first preference share while unsucccessful in 2003. I think that the top five or six in that contest were all from SF: they were clearly still transfer-unfriendly in 2003, and in the 2005 Council elections.

    I suspect that Ford will up his first preferences several hundred, following Council seat gains, but McLaughlin will increase Meehan’s vote too, though possibly less. Meehan was at least on Antrim Council and his wife on Newtownabbey Council.

    Since we don’t know who the DUP are running yet, it is impossible to predict the balance between six unionist candidates, on which transfers and the last two seats will depend. We do know that Alliance gained 1000 transfers more than Sinn Fein last time – which may also be a record.

  • Sammy Morse

    We do know that Alliance gained 1000 transfers more than Sinn Fein last time – which may also be a record.

    Not really – look at North Belfast or West Belfast in 1982, or better yet at Belfast ‘G’ in 1973 or 1977 if you’re a real geek.

  • Ballymena (Bann) in 1997 – the SDLP’s Seamus Laverty polls 967 against a quota of 987 and fails to get elected.

  • Ballynure

    “Paul Girvan and the DUP look set to clean up pretty much all of the Newtownabbey votes and look set to take the 3 seats. “

    bit of a premature comment there by Mr Sparrow.

    Looks like Big Teethy is history…
    http://voice4democracyni.blogspot.com/

  • Inspector Clouseau

    A DUP source informs me that Paul Girvan was against power sharing with SF in almost any circumstances.

  • steve48

    Paul was supportive of the DUP leadership as was Wilson. The two who were selected are very supportive of Allister and McCrea.
    Haven’t worked out yet what this means in election terms.

  • Vitrually none of the candidates running has much of a base in the Glengormley/Carnomey urban area that has 40% of the electorate in this constituency. Interesting.

  • interested

    ballynure

    a very mature attitude. when you have done as much work for the people of newtownabbey then you can talk.

  • Balloo

    South Antrim is very open now, no representative for Newtonabbey area is very strange. The DUP and UUP are almost mirroring each other here in their selection ie. 1 big name, 2 relatively unknown.

  • allyv22@hotmail.com

    The DUP man McCrea who ran away from South Antrim when his dinisty (son) didn’t get the nomination last time, coming back does it mean he got his son nominated in Mid Ulster. DUP should change to KIF keep it in the family. Robinson 3 Paisley 2 Dodds 2 can anyone else go on.

    Allycat

  • Balloo

    Willie has a habit of running away…. wasn’t he the MP for Mid Ulster? MLA for Mid Ulster? I feel sorry for all those loyal unionists who voted for him all those years only to find him playing away next door.

  • pete Whitcroft

    Revised prediction

    dup 2
    uup 2
    SF 1
    Green 1