Three possible outcomes…

Gerry Moriarty is in Scotland with the rest of the press pack waiting for messages to descend from the great clubhouse on high. He reckons there are three possible outcomes to Northern Ireland’s final question:

London and many in the DUP believe is realisable, is the “post-dated cheque” policing/power-sharing agreement endorsed by all parties by November 24th but not actually cashed or implemented until later.

The second, which is favoured by Dublin and Sinn Féin, is where Sinn Féin will sign up to policing by November 24th contingent on a DUP guarantee to share power, also by that deadline, and that the Northern Executive and Assembly would be back and running by November 24th or November 25th.

The third possible outcome is that Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will have determined that agreement is impossible, either before the November 24th deadline or even within six months of that date.

The sideshow it seems keeping everyone awake up there is the speculation over the split within the DUP. But the only singular voice that matters is the party leader’s, Ian Paisley.

  • the other one

    Apparently Jim Allister fired a shot across his colleagues bows when in indicated that he would not be supporting any deal they came back with.

    View some of his comments on his website in a speech to Bannside DUP (the big man’s back yard)

    Although he was not originally a member of the DUP team for Scotland he was very quickly added.

  • fair_deal

    There is nothing in what Jim Allister said to Bannside that other DUP reps haven’t said, so where is the supposed split.

  • Mick Fealty

    I have to say the same having going through it myself. Notice that he’s using blog software to manage the site. Come on Jim, it’s only a small leap across into the blogosphere!!

  • m

    The other one,

    Although he was not originally a member of the DUP team for Scotland he was very quickly added.

    You sure he has been added to the team? He was in Brussels last night talking about Korea, hardly the subject and place for an important or valued party player as negotiations kicked off.

  • seeko

    “Northern Ireland’s final question” ?

    There will be plenty more questions after Nov 24th Mick.

  • lib2016

    I’ve been reading Aidan Troy’s book on Holy Cross and the negotiations surrounding that whole unsavoury episode and share his puzzlement about what game the British were playing.

    They didn’t make any effort to restrain the loyalists, nor did they bother to put up screens as they had previously done to protect Orange parades. Most importantly they did not attempt to control the media in reporting what went on, right down to the pictures of Dodds standing on the other side of the road while his four year old constituents were being attacked.

    Are the British deliberately allowing unionists to destroy their own position again? The DUP face problems whatever decision they take – it’ll be interesting to watch them agonise for as long as they can before they confront the split.

  • DK

    Lib2016 – never allocate to conspiracy that which can be sufficiently explained by incompetence.

  • I Wonder

    ..I wonder if Jim A. was subconsciously or consciously emulating De Valera?

  • lib2016

    McGuiness’s innocent little remark on RTE that he ‘hadn’t heard anything about that inside’ when asked about DUP preconditions on policing suggest that we might not be hearing the full truth about what is going on. Could that be possible? 😉

  • T.Ruth

    Mr.Adams has been stressing that if the DUP do not commit to a deal they will be left behind while all others move on. If Sinn Fein cannot sign up to policing or their supporters revert to criminality will the Assembly be permitted to move ahead without Sinn Fein.Is there a plan B for Sinn Fein failure to toe the democratic line or just one for Unionists if they refuse to be bullied/coerced/cajoled into a less than satisfactory deal?
    I wonder also what the people in the Republic would find acceptable in terms of conditions before Sinn Fein is permitted to exercise Executive power in the government in the South.
    T.Ruth

  • average joe

    m,

    Don’t worry, Jim was in St Andrews last night after Brussels, I’m assuming he had some commitments to keep in Europe.

    the other one,

    Not what I heard, can you shed anymore light on this?

  • kensei

    “I wonder also what the people in the Republic would find acceptable in terms of conditions before Sinn Fein is permitted to exercise Executive power in the government in the South.”

    Very simple answer – an outright majority or willing coalition partner.

  • Billy

    Fair Deal

    You always seem to try and portray the DUP as having a single line that EVERYONE in the party in 100% behind – there is not one political party in the UK that could truly claim that.

    Even on Radio Ulster this week, there have been DUP supporters ringing in with very different viewpoints on how their party should handle these talks.

    I am not claiming a major split in the DUP or anything so melodramatic. However, it is clear that people like Jim Allister, McCrea and the Free Presbyterian element are more hardline and less willing to compromise than the pragmatic (and usually non Free Presbyterian) element i.e. Robinson, Donaldson etc.

    Paisley has maintained a very strong grip on his party and has managed to keep dissention to a minimum.

    However, when he goes, I think the DUP will be more open to alternative suggestions/viewpoints within their ranks.

    As I stated, I’m not saying there are major splits within the party. However, if you believe that there are no people in the DUP with differing ideas on the best way to proceed, I think you are being unrealistic.

  • Greenflag

    Kensei,

    ‘Very simple answer – an outright majority or willing coalition partner.

    The first is less likely than SF topping the poll in Ballymena and the second a rapidly disappearing possibility as the election nears .

  • Greenflag

    The electorate answers Kenny, Rabbitte and O’Caomhin for wasting the Dail’s time .

    RTE – just in .

    There has been a big jump in support for Fianna Fáil, according to an opinion poll to be published in tomorrow’s Irish Times.

    The tns/MRBI poll shows that the current coalition parties have regained their lead over Fine Gael and Labour, despite recent controversies to hit the Government.

    The poll, which was carried out on Monday and Tuesday, shows Fianna Fáil at 39%, an increase of 8 points since the last survey in May.

    Fine Gael is down two to 26%, while Labour is down four to 11%. Sinn Féin are down one to 8%.

    Comment – This a 25% drop in first preferences for Labour, 7% for FG and 12.5% drop for SF .

    Lettuce not vote for the Rabbitte and deliver us from FG . Amen 🙂

  • kensei

    “The first is less likely than SF topping the poll in Ballymena and the second a rapidly disappearing possibility as the election nears .”

    I never commented on the chances of it happening, merely stated fact.

  • páid

    Bin readin’ Moriarty for a long time.

    Munster name, specs you’d use as a solid base for cold haw jelly.

    Sees a lot though, and sharply.

    Don’t know of a better reporter on NI; though McKittrick and Thompson make few mistakes. Mr. Davenport improves monthly. Tommie Gormless is annoying but annoyingly perceptive. JMHO.