Cameron consolidates lead…

If you thought that Gordon Brown was a shoe in for Number Ten, think again. As the politicalbetting blog argues, Cameron’s lead over Blair/Brown is becoming more robust.

  • Brian Boru

    Even so the way the constituencies are noe drawn favours Labour which would still have the most seats – though not a majority – in this situation in a Westminster election. The first Coalition govt since WW2 is on its way methinks.

  • Mick Fealty

    three years is a long time Brian. The first thing on the agenda at Labour headquarters should be how to sort the ‘split’! Gordon’s biggest problem is keeping the rebels happy, whilst retaining the interest/sympathy of middle England.

    Not impossible. But as Will Hutton blogged the day of the last budget, he doesn’t do the vision thing well: http://tinyurl.com/nkqhr

  • Brian Boru

    I think a withdrawl from Iraq would help too.

  • Crataegus

    Cameron’s rise has as much to do with a heart felt desire by many that Blair should go. Labour cannot rally as long as he is there.

    The Conservatives have a lot of ground to make up in areas where they are virtually non existent if they are to be the next government. Also the next election could be a bad one for the Lib Dems.

    Personally I would like a hung government and the introduction of PR but wishful thinking just yet.

  • heck

    to quote paul simon (the US senator not the singer) ” Give people the choice between a conservative party and a conservative party and they will vote for the conservative party all the time”

    In other words who cares. There is not much difference between labour and the tories. I hope for lots of Lib dems, greens, scots and welsh nationalists, and maybe a few single issue independents. Not much of a chance though.

  • duffy

    Apparently Cameron’s cronies are making much of the fact that he mixed in with the “real” fans in the stands last night while Gordon Brown on the Jack McConnell damage limitation mission was being snobby in a box.

    How’s the NHS today? Iraq settled down?

    Prawn sandwich anyone?

  • Crataegus

    Cameron’s cronies are making much of the fact that he mixed in with the “real” fans

    Merely indicates the fans don’t know who he is. The advantages of being an unknown!

  • duffy

    Hah! Indeed. But that is how that Mellor twit got started out.

  • elvis parker

    But remember its not for people in NI to discuss such matters we are remain as second class citizens for ever voting for Irish and Ulster nationalist parties – according to Alex Kane

  • Duffy

    Leave the poor old prawn sandwich out of it, its had a bad enough press as it is. How did we get here from Cameron’s lead over Blair/Brown??

  • duffy

    Julian Robertson,

    My point was about the silliness of politicians generally. Going to a match seems to have taken over from kissing babies. If Cameron wants to go to the match fair enough. If he knows anything about football, even better. But do he and his cronies really have to make such a big deal out of it? The comment re Mellor is arguably irrelevant but I think every thread on every forum on planet earth should include a disparaging reference to that ridiculous occasional Fulham, currently Chelsea “supporter”.

    Now, back to Cameron’s views on the war.

  • Alex. Kane

    elvis parker:

    “..we are to remain as second class citizens for ever voting for Irish and Ulster nationalist parties—according to Alex. Kane.”

    If that is a reference to Saturday’s column then it is certainly an inaccurate smmary of my position. I wished the local Tories success in their quest, but adding:

    “..they face, what seem to me, to be two insurmountable hurdles: the legacy of Conservative governments in terms of NI policy is politically appalling, and their failure to commit to a radical and honest alternative is electorally unappealing.”

    Irrespective of how it pans out on the mainland, I don’t expect the “Cameron effect” to produce an electoral breakthrough locally. But if he does become Prime Minister then it is up to him to prove (through that radical and honest alternative) that a vote for the Conservatives in NI would be worthwhile.

    Meanwhile, good luck to Julian, Bob, Peter et al in their efforts to make a difference.

    Best wishes,

    Alex.

  • elvis parker

    Alex:
    “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”
    Edmund Burke
    Irish orator, philosopher, & politician (1729 – 1797)

  • duffy

    The quotation is well-known and well-worn but what do you mean by it in this context?

  • elvis parker

    Duffy
    If the people, politicans and well known commentators dont turn away from sectarian politics and try to achieve a shift to real politics then we doom our children to a sick society and a dying economy.
    We shouldnt let the fear of failure deter us. (Even if we were biten once before Alex!)

  • elvis parker

    “But if he does become Prime Minister then it is up to him to prove (through that radical and honest alternative) that a vote for the Conservatives in NI would be worthwhile.”

    Life isnt like that Alex is it? Dave wont come to your door you’ll have to go to his.

  • duffy

    Elvis Parker,

    I see your point but just can’t see mainstream politics developing in Northern Ireland, at least not in the short-term. Maybe there was a moment in the late 80s around the time of the Campaign for Equal Citizenship when the argument seemed to have enough force to succeed but it foundered for various reasons not least because the SDLP succeeded in keeping the Labour Party out of Northern Ireland.

  • Alex. Kane

    elvis;

    “Dave won’t come to your door you’ll have to go to his.”

    Have been to the Conservative Party door once too often, elvis, at both No.10 and Central Office. Not inclined to repeat the experience.

    And Dave has managed to “go to the door” on a great many issues to woo former Tories on the mainland, so why shouldn’t we expect him to do it hear?

    Best wishes,

    Alex.

  • Alex. Kane

    Should, of course, be “here” not “hear” in my previous post.

    Alex