The Electoral Commission commissioned psycholgists to develop a formula to predict voting behaviour. It is part of the Commission’s attempts to encourage voter trunout in May’s local elections in England.
For polticial parties, how many of the factors identified are they in a position to influence?
C (Personal contact by party) is an easy one. I (A belief that any of the parties can handle important issues) is probably a perception based on performance between elections. N (Perception of the nature of the national competition between the parties) influenced both between and at elections. Little can be done about S (Perception of how safe the local seat is) in many seats and V (Perception that my vote will count) probably depends more on the tightness of the polls. P (Parental interest in politics) and D (Sense of voting as a duty) impossible or very difficult for political parties to change or influence.