Why Bertie has ruled out Sinn Fein

Joseph O’Malley thinks it’s less to do with Sinn Fein than fending off a challenge from Fine Gael and Labour. In any case he believes that Sinn Fein won’t become a serious contender this time around, whilst recent high profile criminal activity, allegedly (ie unproven in any court) connected to the IRA is still fresh in the public mind. Instead he sees a grand coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and, if the electoral arithmetic is right, the PDs as more likely in the event of Ahern’s government losing enough crucial seats.

  • Keith M

    I think Labour could be walking the plank after the next election, on one side they may have the option of a coalition with FF (which would force Rabbitte’s resignation) or on the other a coalition with FG, the Greens and the PDS (which could be very volatile). Suddenly the option of staying in opposition (and protecting their rear from SF) becomes attractive.

  • fair_deal

    “allegedly (ie unproven in any court)”

    Wrong there have been convictions in the RoI courts of SF/IRA personnel

  • Ciarán Irvine

    Keith:

    Say we have a hung Dáil….FF/PD/Inds don’t have enough. Neither do FG/Lab/Green. SF get, say, 12 seats which are the ones preventing these two options from working. So Labour have the choice between FF/Lab, or FG/Lab/Green/PD, or standing back and allowing a FF/Inds minority administration propped up by SF votes though SF don’t formally enter coalition.

    Rabbitte walks the plank and Howlin jumps into bed with Bertie. There’s really no other way that scenario will pan out if Labour want to survive. IMO, of course 🙂

  • Ciarán,

    I’ve put a post over on El Blogador looking at the various coalition combinations available, and the respective support they would get. It’s from a poll in the newspapers yesterday.

  • CQ

    El Matador,

    the SI “poll” had a sample size of 200 – isn’t it odd how they don’t mention the margin of error? I would not attach much credibility to it

    Ciaran

  • Oilbhéar Chromaill

    Isn’t it about time that people copped on to the patent unreliability of Sunday Independent polls, conducted among a handful of people?
    After the Liam Lawlor fiasco a few weeks ago, it seems they have nothing that they can call actual news to put on their front page. Less a newspaper, more a disgrace.

  • martin

    SF/no IRA and FF/no integrity would just not work in coalition—I wish the bearded one would see some sense about this—if any party goes into coalition with Fianna Fraud they will be butchered in the following GE–FF is despised by almost all voters in the south–no-one has anything good to say about Bertie A–all these opinion polls should be taken with a grain of salt. SF should make a public statement to the effect that the party will have no truck with corrupt and unreliable and wasteful brown envelope taking Fianna Fraud—the SF grassroots in the south are completely and utterly against any idea of coalition with FF–WHY risk a split.

  • Bertie wont want anything to do with the shinners because they are in competion with FF, look to history about ‘terrorists/freedom fighters’ going into govt. in Ireland.

    The PD’s are running scared.

    And SF laughing all the way to the bank.

  • martin

    raff,
    Some would say that weve already left the bank with smiles on our faces.