Communial violence to delay announcement

If forced to make an uninformed guess as to when we can expect the IRA’s response to Gerry Adams’ call to abandon military means it would probably be after the 12th August and before the Black Preceptory walk at the end of the month. It is rumoured that the consultations within the IRA have been completed. Tensions in north Belfast make it unlikely that the IRA will cramp their potential to act through a complete stand down when there are so many ‘free radicals’ on the loose. On the other hand Waiting until September eats into valuable time in the political business year and will only delay the resumption of politics as (ab)normal.

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