Trimble to pick up few Catholic votes




Dolores Kelly

In previous years they couldn’t get anyone from the Garvaghy Road to run for them. This year they have Elaine Sterrit, a 23 year old newly qualified nurse running. Initially she took some verbal abuse, which stopped after Dolores took it up with Gerry Adams. This accords with a lightening of attitudes, with the UUP going into hardline Loyalist areas like Mourneview estate.

But that hasn’t improved Unionist chances of borrowing nationalist votes. She told Slugger:

In the last election our voters have told us that they have voted for David Trimble – well not for him, but as one woman told me during the week ‘we voted for the lesser of two evils’. I don’t think the same argument prevails in people’s minds to vote for David Trimble to save the Good Friday Agreement.

On thing she reckons has really gotten the goat of local moderate Catholics was the It’s Not Fair document Trimble’s party published some time back. In particular she noted the section: It’s not fair to tax people more because they are unionists. That’s the section which refers to the linking of rates and water charges to the value of your home.

Dolorous: “They’re saying it’s not fair because protestants live in bigger houses and better areas. It seemed like the kind of piece that the DUP might have put out. They should blush at putting that out.”

She reckons her party could have lost up to 2000 votes to Trimble last time out. But it’s likely that that figure is also made up of defections to Sinn Fein and people who stayed at home. On the other side of the argument Trimble told Slugger today that he believed he hadn’t pulled in any significant numbers of Catholics last time out.

Hmmm. Whatever about Seamus Mallon’s statement the other day, it looks like Trimble is relying on getting his core vote out!

  • joe

    No matter what happens this time, Upper Bann will be really interesting next time as I think Sinn Fein will have a great chance in 2009. No matter what Dolores Kelly says, the SF vote is growing all the time and they could well become the second party in Upper Bann by THIS election!!

    People have to look at the bigger picture here. Whether Durkan and McGrady hold on this time around is irrelevant as Foyle and S. Down will be SF for definite by the next election.

    Northern Ireland is entering a new realm of two-party politics, and it will be very interesting to see if DUP and SF can strike a deal post-election.

    The danger for unionism is that the imminent DUP clean sweep, or close to it, which will lead to the “realignment” or merger, means that unionism will have done all it can in terms of electoral success. There will be no more gains in the future elections. Where will the next gain come from? West Belfast? Foyle? West Tyrone? Dont think so.

    The dominance of Sinn Fein would surely lead to the southern parties such as Fianna Fail organising up North, which brings more of a focus and a strength to the nationalist agenda and could herald the advent of All-Ireland politics for all parties.

  • john

    Where is Dolores’s framed easter proclamation on the wall of her office??

    After all they are a party that believes in a united Ireland (sometimes)

  • RedPaul

    Sometimes matters come to a head. I support the GFA and have wanted Trimble to do well for it. This morning I got a vile leaflet through my door from the UUP which wound me up..but it was to the wrong electoral constituency! Offensive and incompetent. The UUP are a hypocritical bunch of tossers. I will never vote DUP either but I am feeling mightily disenfranchised right now.
    Ok-Joe Bell of the Sticks has just gained a vote!

  • rouge

    redbull

    You really must be desperate

  • RedPaul

    rouge- you must be drinking the stuff

  • rouge

    redpaul

    Sorry mate,my mistake

    But you must have a few vodkas in ya if your considering voting for the wp

  • GetARealLife

    Mick, you really don’t have a clue about what goes on in the North, how people see things or what their intentions are…

  • Gonzo

    GetARealLife: I think Mick raises some interesting points – one being that those who lent their vote to the so-called ‘moderates’ in the UUP to shore them up against the DUP last time round really needn’t bother this time.

    Regardless:

    How could Trimble possibly hope to shore up his OWN vote with a leaflet like ‘It’s not fair…’?

    Having said that, Trimble is doing what many politicians have done when the tide appears to be against them – consolidating his core, while appealing to the fringes out of desperation (“the lesser of two evils”).

    While he might be able to consolidate a good proportion of his core vote, it has stagnated and the floating voters have given up on him, while the DUP’s support has grown.

  • David Vance

    Mick/Gonzo,

    From my perspective, the SDLP campaign is Upper Bann has been very low profile this time. There are swathes of nationalist territory, so to speak, where one cannot see ONE SDLP poster. Maybe Dolores has been active on the ground, but I am surprised how poor her campaign has been. It is almost at if….no, surely the SDLP won’t be rallying around Trimble for one last hurrah? I don’t think so but honestly, Dolores is the invisible woman of Upper Bann. At least Brid Rogers knew how to run a campaign.

  • kitty

    “At least Brid Rogers knew how to run a campaign.”

    Sure she did- she showed that by holding a soccer ball in a photo op- to prove her association with the Tyrone GAA ( which of course is very important to West Tyronians)!
    Yes she sure knew how to run that campaign.

  • spirit-level

    I always preferred Buck Rogers

  • kitty

    “I always preferred Buck Rogers”

    I am not sure who Buck is but at least you didn’t say Kenny! 🙂

  • spirit-level
  • spirit-level
  • David Vance

    Kitty,

    Brid Rogers 1997 11,584 votes

    Dolores Kelly 2001 7,607 votes

    Pity you don’t understand the concept of debate.

  • kitty

    “Brid Rogers 1997 11,584 votes

    Dolores Kelly 2001 7,607 votes”

    A more pertinent comparison would be with the candidates that Brid Rodgers ran against. You have those, have you?

    “Pity you don’t understand the concept of debate.”

    Au contraire, I think it might be yourself that doesn’t understand the concept- when you have to respond so cynically and sarcastically when your first post, reagrding Brid Rodger’s abilities, was rubbished. Some people just can’t take correction very well:-)

  • David Vance

    kitty,

    Tell me, do you live, by any chance, in Upper Bann? I presume you must do as it would otherwise hard to understand how you challenge my proposition that Dolores Kelly has had a VERY low profile campaign.

    For instance, driving down Union Street in Lurgan, past her OWN OFFICE, all one see’s are posters for the IRA/Sinn Fein candidate! I predict that a Dolores Kelly 05 poster may soon be on Ebay as a collectors item. Maybe they are stealth posters?

    As for the rise in the Brownshirt vote in Upper Bann, no doubt that this must have been at some cost to the SDLP. But then again, Trimble’s 01 vote was also at some cost to the SDLP. My point is that I believe the SDLP are running a shocking campaign in this area where I live.

    So, Kitty, I await with bated breath your detailed insights into the SDLP campaign in Upper Bann.

  • kitty

    YDV, you stated Brid Rogers ” knew how to run a campaign”.

    I pointed out the idiocy of that statement.! Quit huffing, we are all wrong occassionally.

    DV-“Tell me, do you live, by any chance, in Upper Bann? I presume you must do as it would otherwise hard to understand how you challenge my proposition that Dolores Kelly has had a VERY low profile campaign.”

    That is not what I challenged at all. I challenged your contention thaT “Brid Rogers knew how to run a campaign”, and you were wrong as I pointed out. It’s no big deal David, you were just shown to be mistaken in this case.

    DV-“For instance, driving down Union Street in Lurgan, past her OWN OFFICE, all one see’s are posters for the IRA/Sinn Fein candidate! “

    What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rogers knowing how to run a campaign?

    DV-“I predict that a Dolores Kelly 05 poster may soon be on Ebay as a collectors item. Maybe they are stealth posters?”

    What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rogers knowing how to run a good campaign?

    DV- “As for the rise in the Brownshirt vote in Upper Bann, no doubt that this must have been at some cost to the SDLP. But then again, Trimble’s 01 vote was also at some cost to the SDLP. My point is that I believe the SDLP are running a shocking campaign in this area where I live.”

    Again,What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rodgers knowing how to run campaign?

    DV-“So, Kitty, I await with bated breath your detailed insights into the SDLP campaign in Upper Bann. “

    Again, if I might ask,What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rogers knowing how to run a campaign?

  • David Vance

    Kitty,

    1. I asked if you lived in Upper Bann – I note the lack of an answer and conclude you don’t.

    2. Perhaps you feel that an absence of postering and a low level of canvassing constitutes effective campaiging. If so, I would be interested to know why.

    3. The fact that Brid Rogers garnered an SDLP vote almost 60% higher than the redoubtable Dolores rather suggests that she may have run a stronger campaign. Perhaps you view this as proof that she didn’t?

    On Thursday, I think the SDLP in Upper Bann will perform poorly. One must assume that the SDLP carries responsibility for the SDLP campaign, in which case Kitty – to whom shall we attribute the lack of success?

  • kitty

    I hate being repetitive but well the matter at hand …..

    DV-. “I asked if you lived in Upper Bann – I note the lack of an answer and conclude you don’t.”

    What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rogers knowing how to run a campaign?

    DV–2. “Perhaps you feel that an absence of postering and a low level of canvassing constitutes effective campaiging. If so, I would be interested to know why.”

    What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rogers knowing how to run a campaign?

    DV-3. “The fact that Brid Rogers garnered an SDLP vote almost 60% higher than the redoubtable Dolores rather suggests that she may have run a stronger campaign. Perhaps you view this as proof that she didn’t?”

    What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rogers knowing how to run a campaign?

    DV-“On Thursday, I think the SDLP in Upper Bann will perform poorly. One must assume that the SDLP carries responsibility for the SDLP campaign, in which case Kitty – to whom shall we attribute the lack of success? “

    What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rogers knowing how to run a campaign?

  • bigwhitedove

    I would like to contribute to this debate but I think slugger should remove the photograph of Dolores as my children might come into the room!!!

  • Roger

    Incidentally the DUP also acquires a not to insignificant number of Catholic votes Ian Paisley is a prime example.

  • David Vance

    Kitty,

    Your “contribution” on this thread is illuminating.

    You make a statement and then repeat yourself ad nauseum without providing any evidence for what you say. You do not debate or put forward any argument. You make no mention of what is happening here in Upper Bann. In that respect, I am sure your republican credentials are perfect and may well assure you Kitty, with a pride of place in the Sinn Fein litter. It also makes you a staggeringly dull poster. Bye!

  • kitty

    Again I ask:
    What has that to do with you being wrong about Brid Rogers knowing how to run a campaign?
    Answer?

    Kitty,

    Your “contribution” on this thread is illuminating.

    You make a statement and then repeat yourself ad nauseum without providing any evidence for what you say. You do not debate or put forward any argument. You make no mention of what is happening here in Upper Bann. In that respect, I am sure your republican credentials are perfect and may well assure you Kitty, with a pride of place in the Sinn Fein litter. It also makes you a staggeringly dull poster. Bye!

  • David Vance

    Endless Repetition knowing the outcome will not change is often viewed as a sign of insanity. A poor example of Slugger debate.

  • barney

    DV

    “Endless Repetition knowing the outcome will not change is often viewed as a sign of insanity”

    Tell that to Paxo.

  • kitty

    You pointed out that Brid Rogers knew how to run a good campaign- this was shown to be a farcical idea, considering the soccer ball in the GAA photo-op. Instead of acknowledging that perhaps you had exaggerated as a matter of convenience in your argument, you went off in a rant and ignored the issue I pointed out to you. One’s inability to have the humility to admit one was wrong or exaggerated could be “viewed as a sign of insanity.” and is indeed “A poor example of Slugger debate.” Some people just have to feel right all the time and being shown as wrong drives them to all sorts of behaviour. What you displayed here is much more telling than my repeating a question, which of course you continually failed to answer- because you were WRONG.

  • David Vance

    Barney,

    If you work for the BBC THEN you are mad!

    Kitty,

    Let me let you into a little secret and I promise NO other Slugger readers will get to hear this. So all the rest of you, stop reading NOW.

    You have chosen to argue with me that Brid Rogers (Who I detested, by the way) did not really run an effective campaign, predicated around what you define as the “incident of the soccer ball in the GAA phot-op”.

    Now I am prepared to admit that Brid’s howler here MAY have cost here a multitude of votes and thus damaged her prospects. I know that soccer balls in GAA photo’s are of monumental import to the discerning nationalist electorate.

    BUT..here’s the little secret.

    In 1997, the SDLP polled its BIGGEST EVER vote since the creation of Upper Bann.

    Mmm..so, if polling your party’s biggest ever vote is evidence, as you see it, of an inept campaign, then from a Unionist perspective, I pray god we never see successful campaigning.

    Now – that’s the end of this little debate Kitty – just be careful with those claws…

  • David Vance

    Kitty,

    On the 1st May, I posted here on Slugger how POOR I considered the SDLP campaign to be in Upper Bann. Yesterday, Dolores Kelly recorded the SDLP’s lowest EVER vote in Upper Bann.

    So, let’s recap a few outcomes for the benefit of all.

    Brid Rogers 1997 circa 11,000 votes (in a disastrous campaign, according to you)

    Dolores Kelly circa 5000 votes (In a disastrous campaign according to me)

    I have to hand it to you, your political perspecuity is something else.

  • Young Fogey

    Ah, David, it’s good to see you back! 😉

  • David Vance

    YF,

    I haven’t gone away, you know!