Brian's assessment

The ever-excellent Newshound had Brian Feeney’s assessment of the forthcoming election,Few constituencies changing hands. He makes an interesting comparison as to how Mark Durcan and Eddie McGrady have courted the unionist community, a group who could have a major say in the battle between Sinn Féin and the SDLP on May 5 in the respective constituencies.
He finishes with seven, possibly eight nationalist MPs.

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    Looks like you were just too slow ambrose 😉

  • Davros

    There aren’t many people faster than Our Mick LOL

  • Mike

    “On past experience, the sectarian imperative that dominates unionism indicates that the voters will pick the unionist candidate they believe can win and all swing behind him regardless of party affiliation.”

    Interesting isn’t it that despite saying this…

    “What is clear is that Sinn Féin’s Alex Maskey with 3,933 votes last time is not a runner. If the SDLP candidate, the party’s deputy leader Alasdair McDonnell, convinces voters he can win South Belfast, then votes will drain from Maskey like water down a plug-hole.”

    …Brian Feeney can’t seem to identify any ‘sectarian imperative’ in nationalism.

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    Hadn’t noticed that mike, well spotted.

  • barney

    Feeney did not ascribe unionist voting strategies to sectarian sentiment, that idea was introduced by Mike and backed up by Beano. The significant issue is that the nationalists have a choice of two pro-GFA candidates whereas unionists will vote for a monkey on a stick so long as its a unionist monkey. The GFA is not an issue there.

  • queens_unionist

    “whereas unionists will vote for a monkey on a stick so long as its a unionist monkey. The GFA is not an issue there.”
    so you think that a unionist will vote for a nationalist above a unionist??
    could be the case!!
    well i would think there’d be a few DUP voters in south belfast would if they had the choice vote 1/ Jimmy Spratt
    2/ Alasdair McDonald

    and leave it like that. rather than have smiler mcgimpsey anywhere near westminster.

  • Mike

    “Feeney did not ascribe unionist voting strategies to sectarian sentiment, that idea was introduced by Mike and backed up by Beano.”

    Wrong. I simply quoted what Feeney said about a ‘sectarian imperative’.

  • peter

    Interesting analysis. There is no way that the nationalists can win 8 seats. Fermanagh will probably go Unionist and S.Belfast will stay Unionist.

    15000 votes is needed for a win in S.Belfast. There is no way that the SDLP can garner that vote. SF voters will not move their votes at the thought of an SDLP MP.These two parties despise each other.

  • moyle rover

    Nationalists will vote for whoever can beat the unionist. If McDonnell can convince them he is the man he will poll 80% of the nationalist vote. Whether this is enough to win is a different matter.

  • Dessertspoon

    “monkey on a stick”….lol. Why on a stick isn’t that a bit cruel?