Adams' statement aimed at swing voters?

According to David McKitterick’s analysis the lack of detailed committments Gerry Adams public statement to the IRA yesterday is not as important as the message that a lack of public response from the IRA would send to the world about Adams’ political authority as leader of the Republican movement.

Nevertheless, he still sees this primarily in the context of the election contest. In particular, it may aimed at loosening the SDLP’s slender grip on Foyle and Eddie McGrady’s more robust position in South Down:

Since a rebuff now would leave his reputation in shreds, the assumption must be that he is confident of a favourable reply from the IRA. An important move by the IRA is in any event a political necessity, since the murder and the robbery have left it with much ground to make up.

It would come as no surprise if the IRA produced a helpful reply during the election campaign, since the announcement had the additional purpose of maximising the Sinn Fein vote. Despite the setbacks, most expect Sinn Fein to increase its tally of Westminster MPs from four to five. But the party also has designs on two further seats, and winning these depends on reassuring floating nationalist voters that republicans put peace before violence.

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    Lets just hope that moderate nationalists can see through this stunt for what it is.

  • Davros

    As I suspect a lot of voters support SF despite rather than because of the IRA and those SF members with joint membership – lousy alternatives from the SDLP and mainstream Ynionist parties,good policies, good work at constituency level and plenty of Dr Jekylls, I suspect he’ll have done just about enough to stop the rot Beano, but another PR disaster and even the SDLP won’t be able to screw up.

  • Gonzo

    His credibility, which is of huge importance to republicans, has suffered a severe knock with his insistence that the IRA did not carry out the bank robbery.

    Did he?

  • Bert Papworth

    “Lets just hope that moderate nationalists can see through this stunt for what it is.”

    Beano…oh dear, once again demonstrating that for unionists like him, the prospect of the IRA disappearing off the scene is indeed a horrendous vista-because it would remove the big bad bogeyman that makes their thread bare hotch- potch of a belief system continue to work as a collective security blanket.

    Its interesting that the unionist posters seem the most discomfited by this development, they know that Adams has put himself out on a limb to such an extent that its clear that he WILL deliver on this.

    Posters such as Beano find this outcome so deeply disturbing because it will end once and for all the diversion derived from pointing the finger at the IRA, its inevitable that this initiative will strengthen SF,and when fulfilled lead to a much belated spotlight being placed on the fully tooled up Unionist paramilitaries who have been quietly allowed hitherto to put into practice the erstwhile provo slogan of “not a bullet not an ounce”.

    A question soon to be asked everywhere by everyone,

    “When will the loyalist paramilitary groups be voluntarily disbanding eh?”.

    I can’t see the Ian Paisley’s, whether father or son, having the courage to lay down such an open challenge to the LVF…can you?

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    You know I was taking on board everything you said up to “Unionist paramilitaries”, a term which presumably derives from Gerry’s new favourite “Unionist death squads”.

    If we can draw a distinction between nationalists (those with an opposing view) and republicans (those who condone murder and violence to promote said view) it’s a touch unfair you don’t extend us the same courtesy, but I don’t blame you, you’re only regurgitating what Gerry feeds you.

    I have no problem at all with republican disarmament. Why would I? But I’ll believe it when I see it, not when I hear about it form some pre-election posturing.

    I hope the IRA does go. And when they do then I hope loyalists turn on their own terrorist overlords and follow suit.

    Unlike yourself, from the sounds of things, I don’t draw a destinction between my wishes for ‘republican’ murderers to go away and my wish for ‘loyalist’ ones to do same. They’re all scum and well past their sell-by dates.

  • ???

    So will Geryy Adams do a Eamonn De Valera and end up running for president of ireland?

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    There’s a thought… I can’t see him doing it in the near future – not until the Republic has finally accomplished its goal of annexing Northern Ireland and he can rely on votes from the ranks of SF voters up here.

  • bob wilson

    I think Gerry’s missed the boat on being President I mean we have McAleese for the next 7 years and then at least one term of President Bono…..

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    Oh for the love of God no!

  • ???

    I couldn’t listen to him

  • Ringo

    the Republic has finally accomplished its goal of annexing Northern Ireland

    You know I was beginning to think you had a traditional but somewhat refreshing view, unfettered by outdated and simplistic propaganda. Unfortunately not.

    Tell me, why exactly would the government of the Republic want to annex NI? What benefits precisely would accrue to the citizens of the current Republic? Its like a destitute 80 year-old hag with serious mental issues complaining about having to beat the potential suitors away – a bit far fetched.

    NI is practically ungovernable at the moment, the Republic has never been in better shape. Do you really think that any home grown political party thinks a UI would be a good idea? Think about it before trotting out the old nonsense…

  • DerryTerry

    Can we launch the ABBC (Anybody But Bono Campaign) straight away? On second thoughts need to extend the campaign to include Bob Geldof as well, so thats now ABB&GC.

  • DerryTerry

    Ringo, Sinn Fein might be one.

  • Whistleblower

    Michael Shilliday is the editor of the YU Weblog!

  • JD

    Its like a destitute 80 year-old hag with serious mental issues complaining about having to beat the potential suitors away – a bit far fetched.

    Ha! There’s a mental image that won’t go away anytime soon…

  • Ringo

    Ringo, Sinn Fein might be one.

    Indeed, DT, but I wouldn’t describe them as a homegrown party. PSF is essentially a NI party with All-Ireland aspirations.

  • objectivist

    Well said,Ringo.NI has some serious improvement to get through before we would consider them as potential bed partners.I like your analogy.There is actually a medical term that describes this-‘erotomania’ (ref Ian McEwan).
    I had this essential analogy in mind for years albeit with some variation -viz.a rather conceited and temperamantal young one labouring under the illusion that the guy next door actually fancies her and who gets her kicks from the smug rejection of delusionally perceived advances.
    BTW most new SF voters here are moody teenagers trying,as moody teenagers are wont to do,to shove two fingers towards their parents generation.

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    Ringo, I accept that the “annexing Northern Ireland” speech was a bit simplistic. At times I’m as petty as the next man and react to the SF/RM propaganda and spin, fighting fire with fire if you will. That said that hasn’t got us very far in 85 years. In relation to the the term “annexing Northern Ireland,” I prefer it to “reunification of Ireland” because that’s how I see it, especially with regard to those who talk of “British occupation”.

    I know there is no desire among many of the people in the Republic to absorb a state rife with its own problems, and have a lot more respect for the people of the RoI than I’ve traditionally had for it’s government – although recently it seems to be adopting a more neutral stance like that of the Westminster government. I was simply referring to the 75 years in which the state of the RoI had a claim in its constitution that it effectively owned the island.

    I’m genuinely sorry if this has lowered your opinion of me Ringo. In principle I like to think of myself as someone with a different view to our politicians’ tribal attitudes to each other, but at times I can’t help but succumb to rage at some of the propaganda produced by the likes of Sinn Fein and others in the RM.

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    “BTW most new SF voters here are moody teenagers trying,as moody teenagers are wont to do,to shove two fingers towards their parents generation.”

    I wish that were true as I that would imply they might outgrow it. I fear, however, the reality is that the reason for the amount of young people voting for the extremes is that they haven’t lived through as much of the troubles (myself included being born in 1983 the ceasefire was called when I was 11) and don’t see the dangers in regressing back to that state. This being the case, I can only see their support growing over time.

    Or am I being a bit doom n gloom about it all?

  • Ringo

    Beano –

    Back on my Christmas Card list! 😉

  • beano @ Everything Ulster

    Ringo: Thanks, I’ll pull my head back out of the oven now 😉

  • Jimmy Sands

    Come on guys admit it. Geldof in the Aras would be fun.

  • Davros

    Dare I say it ? A total pain in the Aras ?

  • Henry94

    at least one term of President Bono…..

    I think we might see a third McAleese term. Martin McAleese would be a very popular choice.

  • Davros

    If you make us join a United Ireland we’ll all support Dana …. that should secure the Union for the foreseeable future 😉