Rumour mill: SF vote to stand up in Meath

Too early to say yet, but the forecast for Joe Reilly’s vote in Meath was put at 14.9%. At the moment there’s nothing but rumours, but the lowest figure we’ve heard so far is 12%, and the highest is 16%. Let us know if you’ve heard better!

  • PS

    So the bottom line is that, whatever the final figure is, the Sinn Féin vote will rise, just as it has done throughout the island for the past decade and a half.

  • ulsterman

    Who cares what happens in a by election there?. MAY 5TH is Ulsters date with destiny. On that glorious day the Pope, Dublin and Republicanism will finally be beaten into the ground by the DUP.

    Ulsters date with destiny will show the Papiists who the new masters are.

    God Save The Queen.

  • Alan

    RTE are saying a low turnout (40%) in Meath (see
    http://www.rte.ie/news/2005/0312/byelection.html).

    I’d say SF would be a cert for a relatively high count.

  • Alan2

    Are you for real Ulsterman? The DUP and SF demographics are entirely different sets of voters and one does not really effect the other.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    RTE 11.00am stated that tallies had FF slightly ahead of FG, both in their mid 30’s % wise. SF on 15% and Labour on 7%. PD’s as expected don’t even register.

  • J Kelly

    Pat if this true then on a 40% poll the actual number of Sinn Fein votes will also have increased. This will notbe good news for Durkan and co.

  • peteb
  • samneilson

    ‘J’

    still knocking Durkan and co.

    Look let’s get serious here. By-elections in western democracies (N I not included) are usually opportunities for the population to give the government a ‘bloody’ nose – politically , you understand. Look at the turnout, its highly unlikely that Joe will increase his vote in percentage terms if the turnout is higher. The rule of thumb is that extremists always do well with a lower turnout. Currently the tallies put PSF at 12.2 % WOWEE – so lets get this, nearly 90% of the poor turnout in Meath voted for democratic parties. A resounding victory. If you are on the rise why not put up a candidate in the constituency of Bodenstown? Your spinning and distortions are laughable.
    Just remeber the Tele poll – even accounting for the fact that the PSF vote is always underrepresented, the stoops don’t seem to have been crushed just yet. Try to be objective when making political obsevations, please!!

  • J Kelly

    Sam when being objective on recent events and attacks from political opponents of Sinn Fein everyone has to admit that its primary aim is to stop SF advancing politically. All the pundits and observers were forecasting and dare i ay it hoping for SF to take a hammering in Meath and this would have given impetus to the SDLP campaign in May but as the tallies have indicated this is not going to happen and in turn will not be good news for Durkan and co.

    Secondly if we take your argument that 90% votedagainst SF could we also say that by the latest tallies that maybe 99% have voted against the PD’s. You know as well as I do that this was not an anti SF vote. The bottom line is that SF vote has stood up and maybe even increased and that can only be good news for the peace process and for the for coming SF campaign in the north.

  • samneilson

    ‘J’,

    as I’ve sais, I do respect your mandate, but there is nobody in Ireland who thought that in this by election PSF would be crushed. Your argument doesn’t stand up. you cannot compare a by-election in Meath with a Westminster election in May.
    PSF has a fantastic GOTV system, and in a lower turnout this will result in a disproportionate result. Durkan will not lose too much sleep over this result.
    And also, is it not possible that if it had not been for the recent tragic events that the PSF vot e would have been higher??
    Still 12.3% is not great no matter how much you spin it.
    Peace process, don’t make me laugh! PSf contribution, well the propaganda of the PSF must be getting to you.
    BTW you didn’t comment on the Bodenstown issue or the Tele poll – the stoops haven’t gone away you know!!!!!!!!!!

  • George

    samneilson
    “Still 12.3% is not great no matter how much you spin it.”

    I don’t know, this is how RTE News described the SF vote in Meath:

    “Has held up very well, in fact has increased significantly”

    “a great success”

    “a sizeable vote”

    “They’ll be very happy with that”

  • samneilson

    George,

    this isn’t the same RTE who the former Minister of Education criticised for the attacks on his party on Primetime during the week. My. my how times have changed. Only with the Provisional movement does 12.3% on a VERY low turnout represent a success. The best Joe can do now is to get the FF candidate in!! how ironic will that be.

    Also, will we see Joe at Downing Street again shortly!!!!!!!

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    You can lie, spin or waffle all you want, the increase in vote by SF is significant not to say remarkable.
    They appear to have come in front of the Labour Party (traditionally the third party) and have humiliated the PD’s.
    Given that there will not be anywhere near the hostility that has accompanied this campaign SF will head into the next Dail elections in fine fettle.
    I just can’t wait to see Mc Dowell’s surly gob on TV. Get the message son, people have never liked you and despite 2 months of free press they still don’t. Roscommon beckons.

  • George

    Samnielson,
    I don’t know what you are getting at there, I’m just pointing out to you that the Irish media view the SF vote in Meath as a good result for the party.

    This is not SF spin, this is how the result is being reported. You can argue that it isn’t a good result but the media seems to think the opposite.

  • samneilson

    And heres me thinking that the media were anti PSF.

    PAt,
    look at he results of the last General election – I believe thatJoe was the runner up, nearly taking the seat. This time he might be eliminated before the Labour candidate after redistribution. Joe is a good candidate, but if the PSF organisation is soooo good why didn’t your friends put up a candidate in Kildare also, instead of putting all their energies and resources into a 12.3% victory in Meath??

  • George

    samneilson,
    Reilly got 9.43% of the first preference vote in the 2002 Dail election,fifth overall behind 3 FF and 1 FG.

    This time he got 12.2%, third overall.

    As for Kildare North, Sinn Fein didn’t run a candidate there in the 2002 general elections either so it isn’t any great surprise that they concentrated on Meath this time around.

    You seem to be searching for evidence of weakness in the SF vote of 12.2% rather than simply analysing it.

  • AW

    Assume SF’s ability to get its vote out held in Meath at 40% turnout the 12% vote probably reflects overall support of around 9% which is in line with the recent opinion polls. It is neither good nor bad for SF but I am sure they are greatly relieved and this may result in a more ‘firm line’ in the North to those criticising the Republican movement.

    The result shows that they can do what the hell they like and their vote will hold no matter what. Mother Ireland should hang her head in shame she has just undermined the McCartney family and other brave people.

  • J Kelly

    AW I thought that the McCartney family werelooking for truth abd justice for their brother not attacking SF. Your attitude just goes to show your true feelings on the killing of RobertMc Cartney it gives us a good opportunity to kick SF. Shame on you.

  • AW

    J Kelly
    I thought that the McCartney family werelooking for truth abd justice for their brother not attacking SF.

    Yes but they need protection against threats from various sources in the wider Republican movement. That movement most see that this sort of behaviour is just not acceptable. Meath says Ireland dosn’t give a toss so expect pressure on that family to increase.

  • George

    AW,
    “Meath says Ireland dosn’t give a toss”.

    No it doesn’t, it just says that Meath doesn’t equate a vote for Joe Reilly with having anything to do with the murder of Robert McCartney.

    Believe it or not, there are an awful lot of people on this island, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern included, who see a distinction between Sinn Fein and the IRA.

  • Jimmy Sands

    [quote]why not put up a candidate in the constituency of Bodenstown?[/quote]

    I believe seismologists expressed concern about subterranean movements.

  • J Kelly

    Meath says that SF voters can see when cynical politicans are playing politics with the peace process. It looks to me that people like yourself AW dont give a toss about the McCartneys as long as it gives you a chance to kick SF. As one of the McCartney family said last week this is a social justice issue not a political one.

    Bring on the 5th of May.

  • barney

    Why is it that you never see samneilson and ulsterman together?

    “On the next glorious election day Republicanism will finally be beaten into the ground by the PD’s.

    McDowell’s date with destiny will show all Shinners who the real fascists are.

    God Save Queen Harney.”

    Eh, sam?

    (Appologies for any infringement of ulsterman’s copywright)

  • Henry94

    Of all the reasons I’ve seen for putting up a canditate in a constituency the fact that it is someones final resting place is the least convincing. When someone says it once you could put it down as a joke but when it’s repeated you have to suspect that they actually think it’s a serious point.

  • barney

    Is Wolf Tone on the electoral register?

  • George

    The PDs are also an Irish Republican party.

  • Mick Fealty

    Pat,

    “You can lie, spin or waffle all you want”…

    There was one Frenchman who the English referee should have made walk to the dressing room today, for going into the ruck and headbutting O’Driscoll. The ref let him go with a warning and he went on to deservedly win man of the match.

    This is the kind of remark that gets you noticed by moderators! You’re a better player than that!

    Now play on.

  • barney

    “The PDs are also an Irish Republican party.”

    So they claim, as do FG, FF and even the Stoops. Pull the other one George.

  • George

    Barney,
    Irish republicans come in all shapes and sizes, one of those shapes just happens to be the PDs, a party that happens to share in the republican governance of 80% of this island’s citizens.

    They certainly aren’t militant republicans but republicans they are and Irish they are too.

  • AW

    J Kelly
    people like yourself AW dont give a toss about the McCartneys as long as it gives you a chance to kick SF.

    You have no idea how wrong you are on that score. It is not SF that I dislike but people from whatever quarter who are happy to use violence and others that justify them. I don’t like violence and I don’t like bullies and I don’t like crime and I will never make excuses for any such any acts of barbarism be it by republicans, loyalists or the government. You can’t say the same for SF.

  • barney

    So ALL parties in the 26 counties are Irish Republicans? And anyone who ever held a job can describe themselves as Labour, when they mow the grass they are Green. Give me a break.

  • George

    Barney,
    are you saying only militant or physical force republicans can call themselves republican?

    All those parties you mentioned vow to uphold the constitution of the Irish Republic, including Articles 2 and 3 which were passed by over 95% of the voting electorate.

    Sinn Fein supported these articles too so what makes them different from, for example, Fianna Fail?

    What makes them more republican? Or do you not consider SF republican either?

  • levitas

    “SF’s onward march falters in Meath?!”….well thats a pretty obvious attempt to spin what is undoubtedly a superb vote for SF into a negative one..Joe Reilly’s share of the vote WENT UP from 9% in the last election there to 13% in the by-election, now any fair minded observer would concede that

    a) in the light of a reduced turnout, where apparently working class areas had a lower turnout than middle class areas..

    b) an UNPRECEDENTED anti-SF media campaign around the Northern Bank robbery and the McCartney murder over the LAST 10 weeks…

    This result is nothing short of b****y amazing (don’t want to get red card for bad language..haha).

    I am at work right now, and I can assure you that from the reports I have received the shinners are WELL PLEASED and not surprisingly.
    ANY attempt to spin this any other way is flying in the face of reason.Their core vote held, but despite a poor turnout the global SF first pref vote also rose, whatever way you look at it this has got to be good news for Sinn Fein, and demonstrates once again, that BECAUSE THEY DO THE WORK ALL THE YEAR ROUND they get the votes, it really is as simple as that. Roll on the May Elections in the 6 counties, as Martin McGuiness has said this is a tremendous launch pad for that campaign….put away the sour grapes you anti-republicans, it ill befits a thinking person !!

  • Jimmy Sands

    “So ALL parties in the 26 counties are Irish Republicans?”

    Except the provisionals obviously. Some of them hate the Republic so much they can’t even bring themselves to call it by its proper name.

  • barney

    FF are the most successful of Ireland’s 26 County Business Parties. They have given up on the other 6 Irish counties. Therfore FF are, at best, a Semi-Detatched Irish Republican Party. The PD’s are simply detached, and in more ways than one.

    The proper name for ‘Ireland’ is ‘Ireland’, Jimmy. It is not ‘the Republic’ FYI.

  • barney

    detached = detatched

  • Jimmy Sands

    Barney,

    I know what my country is called, and it’s not the 26 counties.

  • George

    Barney,
    an Irish Republican can be pro-business, can accept that partition won’t change unless the majority in both jurisdictions so wish, can defend the 26-county Irish Republic and condemn those who sully the republican cause by going against the wishes of the Irish people by using violence to achieve their means.

    Irish republicans believe in the democratic republican method of governance to forward the aims of the Irish nation.

    Irish republicans do not believe in imposing their ideals on the Irish people against their will.

  • barney

    Ireland is called many things Jimmy but never “Jimmy Sand’s Country”. LOL at “my country”.

  • barney

    Sure George, but what do the Semi-Detached parties stand for?

  • George

    The question you should ask yourself Barney is what do the Irish people stand for and what do they want.

  • Jimmy Sands

    Come to think of it Barney, it does have a certain ring to it.

  • barney

    No George. That’s what sheep do. The question we should all ask is “what do I stand for and what do I want”. It might sound selfish but it’s our democratic duty. I’ve never decided how to use my vote by trying to second-guess how other people will use theirs. Or, for that matter, how other people would like me to use mine. I use my vote to advance the causes I care about. If I back a loser then tough, that’s democracy for you.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    Mick,

    ‘noticed by moderators’

    Templemore Ave gable walls have more intellectual credence of late than the overtly partisan ramblings that have infected this site. If you don’t want an alternatbve view to the sectarian ramblings that have permeated the site of late then just say so.
    Apparently the moderators look for man not ball, where are my indiscretions here?

  • barney

    Pat, did you ever think you face didn’t fit?
    There’s a couple of pedantic unioinst appologists here who have made a hobby of calling people liars without so much as a slap on the wrist. Looks like you are suitable case for special attention.