Scary incoherence of the Republican movement?

Vincent Browne is no more certain of what’s gone on within the Republican movement over the last few months than anyone else in the media, but he manages link a chain of (what are for him) scary thoughts:

Having known Adams for many years, and having met him recently, I do not believe that he knew in advance of the Belfast bank robbery.

What is scary is that he may not know even now whether the IRA did it or not – and for a person who was so dominant within the movement for so long to be in such a position suggests that he is no longer the influence he was.

What is more scary is the prospect of the IRA going back to war, this time with a €38 million war chest (if they did indeed do the bank job).

If that happens, they will not fool around with the old brigade rifles and Semtex: there will be more devastating stuff, with more devastating consequences in terms of human life, destruction and political fallout.

A week ago, certainly two months ago, the idea of an IRA return to violence was unthinkable. It is no longer. And if that happens all bets on all sorts of things are off.

  • Davros

    That is one very clever article Mick. Is it the equivalent of the strategic leaks we used to get from within the Tory party ?

  • aquifer

    One reading of the Rumsfeld ‘Invasion Lite’ strategy, of insisting over the heads of his military that a small mobile army invaded IRAQ, is that he wants to be able to be confident of taking on bigger areas when he deploys the bulk of his troops.

    Adams has not looked too suave for a month or two.

    Gerry and the rest have been indulged internationally, and locally, to date, despite their old style politics and methods. If in the end he could not deliver the IRA in exchange for an equitable settlement the question then arises could SF ever deliver the IRA. If the answer is no then the IRA must be quickly suppressed, to save the greates number of lives, and SF can take their chance at the ballot box without them.

    The superpower may also have a few whispers for Tony and Bertie. Something about clever white communist terrorists and their own back yard. Guess the rest.

  • JD

    If the answer is no then the IRA must be quickly suppressed, to save the greates number of lives, and SF can take their chance at the ballot box without them.

    IMHO, that would be a great recruiting officer for the cause.

  • vespasian

    Methinks I smell a rat!

    If you nasty lot aren’t nice to poor Gerry then he will fall from grace and you’ll have to deal with someone a lot worse ‘And if that happens all bets on all sorts of things are off’.

    More sabre rattling since the IRA have lost their only card their arms.

    Blair’s cabal used to say things like that about David Trimble before SF called their bluff in 2003. Let’s hope they call SF/IRA’s bluff this time even without the help of the SDLP.

    Desperation or even the last struggles of a soon to be extinct animal?

  • cg

    JD I agree totally

  • maire

    I would love a peak at Vincent Browne’s magic ball (where he tell what is going through the mind of Gerry and the IRA) Ask him does he know Saturday’s lottery numbers as well since he has this mindreading and fortune telling thing down to a tee!

  • ulsterman

    I think that Gerry Adams and his murdering cohorts bluff has been called. Post 9/11 a return to terrorism is not on the cards. If they tried it the SAS would immediately wipe them out. They do not have anywhere near 38 million.

    The IRA along with the Pope is on the run.

    Lets keep the filth running,

    God Save vThe Queen.

  • drumcree

    Our friends in PIRA perhaps forget that they and their cohorts have been released on licence, and a stadium hasn’t yet been built on the Maze – food for thought?

  • AW

    If Jerry did not know about the robbery then there is fragmentation or weakening of control. If he did know then there is hypocrisy and lies. Either way there are problems and really this is one for SF to sort out. The ball is in their court and much counts on how they play it. No one should adjourn this game and get them off the hook for sooner or later they will return to the same problem. Better it is dealt with now so we can all move on with or without them.

  • mickhall

    Our friends in PIRA perhaps forget that they and their cohorts have been released on licence, and a stadium hasn’t yet been built on the Maze – food for thought?

    Posted by: drumcree

    This question about prisoners being returned to jail has been posed before on slugger, but no one answered it. Im not sure if drumcree is correct, anyone know for sure?

  • The Devil

    Vincent Browne, you have obviously been out of the loop as far as Northern politics goes for far too long AND IT SHOWS.

    Adams has never been coherent in his life he has made a vocation out of the policy of nudge and wink, everything he says is littered with maybe and innuendo.

    Why would any military group going to war chase after a dirty bomb (plutonium) it’s effects are minimal and relatively easy to overcome or clean, when they could go after an EMP device (electro magnetic pulse) which would be devastating to all of Europe and would destroy the worlds economy.

    The money from the northern bank 26.5 million is a joke to the Provos, they take that out of west belfast alone every year.

    The bank was done to prove they are still a force to reckon with pure and simple.

    So Mr Browne either find a new job or retire because you have shown yourself to be all too easily fooled by a failed politician in a lost position, not the sort of thing that should happen to a professional journalist

  • Christopher Stalford

    The Devil

    “So Mr Browne either find a new job or retire because you have shown yourself to be all too easily fooled by a failed politician in a lost position, not the sort of thing that should happen to a professional journalist”

    Agreed.

  • Christopher Stalford

    cg

    “JD I agree totally”

    You would.

  • Mick Fealty

    Chris, please try to keep to the point, and away from personal jibing.

    Devil, I know you’ve a reputation to upkeep, but keep it professional please!

  • Christopher Stalford

    The point is just how typical it is of a Sinn Feiner to threaten people with the prospect of scores of young thugs signing up to join the ranks of the Provos if Sinn Fein’s demands aren’t met.

    Quite frankly they should save their threats – we’ve heard it all before.

  • IJP

    The point is just how typical it is of a Sinn Feiner to threaten people with the prospect of scores of young thugs signing up to join the ranks of the Provos if Sinn Fein’s demands aren’t met. Quite frankly they should save their threats – we’ve heard it all before.

    Sorry to say I’m entirely in agreement! On this one occasion…

  • cg

    “The point is just how typical it is of a Sinn Feiner to threaten people with the prospect of scores of young thugs signing up to join the ranks of the Provos if Sinn Fein’s demands aren’t met.”

    Who threatned anyone?

  • Roger W. Christ XVII

    Mick H, regarding early releases the way I understand it is this. The GFA early release scheme is applied, but if it is revoked the prisoner license scheme which previously existed to reduce paramilitary sentences still applies. That can in turn be revoked so that the prisoner must serve his full term.

    I think this is what happened with Johnny Adair. He had both his GFA release revoked *and* his previous license revoked and had to serve his full term. But once the full term had been served he had to be released.

    At this stage, I’d guess that the majority of republicans who are out on the GFA release scheme would probably be approaching the end of their sentences anyway. The threat of returning them to jail probably does not hold much water.

  • Davros

    I have asked this before – have those out on license brokem the terms of their release by moving abroad ?

  • Roger W. Christ XVII

    Davros, good question. I don’t know.

    But extradition should be a straightforward matter in such circumstances, I’d expect.