Bush in trouble?

Bush could be in trouble. US Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has released his final survey of twelve battleground states. The raw figures suggest a dead heat. But adjusted, they give Kerry a lead of just over three points. Of course, what better to get the Bush vote out, but a nice wee shock before the poll?

  • peteb

    “Using assumptions based on the census”

    Polls.. don’t you just love them?

  • smcgiff

    ‘Of course, what better to get the Bush vote out, but a nice wee shock before the poll?’

    Or motivate Kerry supporters that their vote could kick Bush out of office!

  • Oul Nick Mr Satan to you

    Correction Bush is in difficulties

    The Iraqi people are in trouble

  • Butterknife

    Q: – What

  • David Vance

    Correction: Kerry is in difficulties and it is only if he were to somehow (perhaps with the aid of the votes of illegal immigrants?)get into the White House that Iraqis would be in real trouble. Bush will win – now get over it.

    (And by the way, the New Republic is not exactly pro-Republican!!! Check out the lovely anti-Bush tirades all over it.)

  • smcgiff

    ‘(perhaps with the aid of the votes of illegal immigrants?)’

    Glad to see you’ve got your excuses prepared in good time, DV.

  • Fraggle

    the iraqis are loving Bush’s leadership. millitant islamacists setting off bombs almost every. bush is screwing up in iraq. it’s difficult to see how it could be worse.

  • Fraggle

    ‘every day’ that should have been

  • Hektor Bim

    Kerry should be considered to be narrowly ahead at this point. The polls systematically underpredicted the vote Al Gore got four years ago – in fact, most predicted Bush would win more votes than Gore. All indications are that turnout will be higher than last time, and when turnout is higher, Democrats win. It’s really that simple.

    That’s why the Republican party has turned to voter suppression, especially focused on minority candidates. They need to enhance the white racist turnout and dampen the minority turnout, and that’s what they are going to try to do. I believe it will be unsuccessful, but we’ll see on election day.

    Why are you guys even commenting on this without real information, and am I correct in assuming that Mick Fealty is hoping for a Bush victory? Is this an official endorsement from the site?

  • PS

    This site never officially endorses any poltical candidate Hektor, though I’m sure Mick has his own opinions and is entitled to them.

  • James

    I’ve gotta look up that dude I met in Doolin.

    The first half of his Prophesy just came true: The Sox won the Series!!!

    The second half still doesn’t look so hot since Bush and Kerry are doing approximately the same dance that Bush and Gore did in 2000. The only change is that the Nader vote is approximately 1 percent instead of 5 and we have half as many undecideds, progress of a sort, I guess.

    Twilight Zone aside, it’s gonna get worse before it’s over.

    I just got an email from my daughter who recently moved to Minnesota and she is torn between voting absentee in Ohio or in person in Minnesota. (Go to your roots, lass, vote in both places and vote often.)

    Yesterday Mercury News reported that thousands of Bay Area residents were heading out to the swing states to fight the good fight since California is a sure win for Kerry.

    Broward County Florida returned the largest Gore margin in 2000. this year a few of the absentee ballots seem to have been misplaced since the county elections supervisor is busy licking 20,000 stamps to mail replacements. The county is blaming the Post Office and the Post Office blames the county.

    A guy in a Caddy played a little chicken with Katherine Harris, who as Florida Secretary of State carried Jeb Bush’s water for him oversaw the 2000 Florida recount. He didn’t carry through and drove the car off the sidewalk before he hit anyone. The No Hit & Run driver was traced through his license plate and turned out to be a registered Democrat who “was exercising my political expression”. And I thought it was Californians who did everything in their cars.

  • Emily

    One morning, I will wake up to the end of the horrible screaming of the lambs. Sadly, I don’t think that day will be November 3rd.

  • peteb

    With a nod to Instapundit guest blogger Megan McArdle

    The Washington Post has a feature on the unreliability of the polls – Don’t Ask Me free registration req.

  • Davros

    The whole thing scares the hell out of me.
    Can I ask what would have happened last time if instead of the winner of each state getting all the votes they had been alloted to represent the voting share of the candidates ? Would that have made any difference over the past few elections ?

  • D’Oracle

    The old..” nice wee shock before the poll” ploy has worked before elsewhere, Mick so you may well be right.

    If even half what we hear these days about the various voter registration etc scams underway in Florida and elsewhere is true it may well be time to send in UN Election Observers. Who knows maybe Karzai in Afganistan could spare some people for the gig and begin to repay the US for bringing them the gift of democracy

  • Mario

    North American friends of mine, assure me that Bush is going to lose because simply, the voter turn out will be massive in the United States for this election. According to them, this, traditionally has a negative impact on Republicans because massive turn outs bring ethnic minorities and lower income voters that traditionally favor Democrat party candidates. They also point out to the massive amount of young people who have recently registered to vote and are not being polled. Polls traditionally survey people who traditionally vote and if it is almost even there then I think their logic makes sense. I dont know how a Kerry administration will benefit us in Argentina, but it will be hopefully better for the suffering Iraquis who have lost close to a hundred thousand people according to some estimates. What is the feeling in the UK? Will prime minister Blair survive this?

  • ulsterman

    I doubt Bush will lose.

    The Pope must be rubbing his hands with glee at the thought of a Papist in the Whitehouse.

    Lets make sure it does not happen. Lets Pray for the re-election of President Bush.

    Stop Popery.

    Vote Bush.

    God Save The Queen.

  • Alan

    Interesting piece here

    http://www.pbs.org/elections/essays.html

    on the legal restriction on Pollsters contacting mobile phones.

    *Anna Greenberg of pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research told the BBC, for example, that only three percent of Americans use their mobile phones as a sole communication device, but the FCC said two years ago that five percent of U.S. homes have only mobile phone service and that 15 percent of university students have only mobile phone service. And with 77 million U.S. mobile phones owned by people age 18-24, many of those supposedly counted are probably still associated with a parent’s hard-wired telephone number but are really mobile. So the numbers of unpolled votes could be huge.*

    The last US presidential election, I woke up to a Bush victory, having toddled upstairs confident that Gore would do it. This time it’s going Kerry’s way, but it’s still going to be a long night!

  • davidbrew

    If Bush wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college will Michael Moore say Kerry stole the election?

  • Colm

    On question time last night Michael Moore expressed the hope that in the event of a 2000 style stand off each candidate should agree to step aside if they have not topped the popular vote.

  • Davros

    DB – Something like that came up last night on QT –
    Moore as I recall suggested that both candidates should publicly agree before the election that if there is a dispute similar to last time then the decison should be made on the Popular Vote.

  • peteb

    Colm and Davros

    That was a very unsubtle trap set by Michael Moore. If Bush agreed, which he won’t, he’d be immediately accused of admitting his current presidency was illegitimate.

  • Mick Fealty

    Hektor,

    I’m interested in the election, because it’s an election and it possesses many of the dynamics we are familiar with here in NI. Although a few of us here are enfranchised US citizens, most of us simply retain an outsider’s interest in the outcome.

    As a commentator, I don’t have a preference. But many of Slugger’s readers fall into either Democrat or Republican camp. There is so much spinning going on from both sides that it is difficult to see what is significant and what is just froth. This particular piece seemed worth taking more seriously because of the source and its potential import.

    From an independent point of view it has seemed to me that Bush has had a stronger profile than Kerry. A lead of anything less than 3 per cent has to be treated with scepticism. But this could latest could indicate a last minute tipping of the balance in favour of Kerry.But it might also be enough to motivate bored Bush voters to get out and vote.

    However, until the people’s verdict on Tuesday – it all remains spin one way or the other!

  • James

    “A lead of anything less than 3 per cent has to be treated with scepticism.”

    Especially since the uncertainty is &#177 3%.

    Zogby just put them at evens in the latest tracking poll with 3% undecided. At this point in 2003 Gore was 3% behind yet he still won the popular vote.

    And then the Beantown Oracle’s Red Sox part of the prediction came true ……

    Spooky

  • Christopher Daigle

    Posted by: davidbrew at October 29, 2004 12:13 PM

    If Bush wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college will Michael Moore say Kerry stole the election?

    ———–
    If the deciding votes come down to a state where the winning candidate’s brother is governor and several thousand people were denied the right to vote because of their race/ethnicity then he just might. As that is what is being refered to by “stolen election” not the elitist undemocratic nature of the presidential election.

    But, if by chance Kerry wins the electoral college and Bush wins the popular vote than Moore’s right-wing arrogant, obese mirror image Rush Limbaugh will likely carry on about how “liberals” stole the election.

  • Hektor Bim

    ulsterman,

    Aren’t Cherie Blair and the Blair kids Catholic? Isn’t Tony Blair thinking about converting? Look to your own house, man!

    Mick,

    Thanks for the explanation, though I have to admit that it seems to me like it has almost none of the dynamics of Northern Ireland elections. There are only two major parties instead of four. There is no major political/religious dividing line on a single issue (British versus Irish rule) in the US like in NI.

    There are not two governments talking and no cross-border bodies. There is no larger jurisdiction like in NI, whether it be the UK, Ireland, or the EU. There are no paramilitaries, there are no religious leaders who also found parties like Ian Paisley.

    To be honest, I can’t think of anything really that the US elections have in common with NI elections, beyond obvious things that all western elections have in common. Not even the election systems are the same. Showing the election similarities would be a very interesting post in slugger if you want to attempt it.

    I will just stress again that polls, even in this late stage are extremely unreliable at the level of a few points, and that they systematically underpredicted Gore’s performance and overpredicted Bush’s in 2000.

    Of course, you are right that it is all spin at this point. We’ll see how everything turned out on Nov. 3.