Bush in cruise control?

For those of you waiting for another big ‘hanging chad’ finale in the US Presidential election, you can relax. According to the latest composite poll in the Washington Post, Bush is shrugging off the slight gains Kerry made after the first of the three set piece debates. Today it stands at 51%-45% in his favour.

  • Davros

    That Bulge explained ?

  • peteb

    Probably worth pointing out, Mick, that the poll data is jointly collected with ABC News who give their analysis of that data as 50% Bush, 46% Kerry. In both cases the margin of error is +or-3 points.

  • Mick Fealty

    Thanks Pete.

    Slate’s Scorecard is even kinder to Kerry, but I still think the pressure is still on him to make up the deficit and put some points between himself and Bush.

    Andrew Sullivan’s take is that, unlike 2000, the result will be decisive whichever way it falls as a race which involves an incumbent rarely produces a dead heat.

    At the moment, he’s suggesting that Kerry’s got the momentum. But even with that kind of error margin – the safe bet is still nearly 2/1 on for Bush.

  • smcgiff

    ‘That Bulge explained ?’

    Sadly, I think this controversy will play into Bush’s hands.

    Many Bush supporters are happy in the knowledge that Bush isn’t really running the country. The fact he is fed info during the debate probably just confirms their hopes he’s just a puppet during the day to day running of the country.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    A Reuters/Zogby poll out today has both candidates at 45%. While a poll carried out by USA Today/Gallup on Saturday and Sunday has Kerry on 49% and Bush on 48%.
    You pays your money I suppose.

  • Fraggle

    the actual percentage each get is irrelevant anyway. what matters is the electoral college and therefore the swing states. looking at the position in the swing states would be a lot more instructive. anyone got data on that?

  • James

    “electoral college and therefore the swing states.”

    It’s America where enterprise is free and nothing else is.

    Zogby has it for you if you have 110 bucks in your pocket.

  • James

    I just finished cleaning the spam out of my email and answered Zogby’s weekly on-line interview to be rewarded with the previous week’s tracking report. (I donno what they do with the on-line stuff. Zogby’s methodology states that the published data is solely from random telephone polls.)

    Since we all know that Bush never needed a majority to win, the following is probably navel-gazing. Last week the only Zogby data that was just beyond a statistical tie was we disapproved of Bush 53 to 47%, (0% undecided) that we thought the US was going in the wrong direction 48% to 45% (7% undecided) and that we should elect someone new 50% to 45% (5% undecided)

    At the same time last week the people Zogby polled 46% for Bush and 45% for Kerry with 7% undecided. The “undecided” leaned 28% for Kerry-Edwards and 26% for Bush-Cheney with 44% undecided upon which way to lean (or probably couldn’t make their minds up to pee if their pants were on fire).

    My vote will never be with Bush but I’d still bet on him. The basis of my opinion is because I think that most Americans are dumber than dirt (after all, 50% are below average intelligence here). Reinforcement just arrived in the form of my wife’s jury summons. Seven possible reasons were listed as disqualifications for jury duty. Number 5 was “I do not read, right or understand the English language”. In fairness to Santa Clara County, the clerk did XXX out the “right” with a typewriter and type “write” above the correction.

    The party just never stops here.