SNP
It’s all happening in Scotland..
Tweet Excellent stuff from Alan Trench in the Scotsman It’s difficult to choose specific quotes so read the lot….How the SNP are strategising for independence. And in the here and now: (from the BBC) A by-election In Inverclyde on June 30. I thought Labour might let things cool down a bit before calling this. (Held [...] more »
The Psephology of Scotland (3) – SNP – it could have been even better….
Tweet The SNP won 53 of the 73 FPTP seats in the Scottish Parliament. These are the other 20, with the winning party and the margin between them and the SNP. (From the BBC.) Coatbridge and Chryston 2,741 Lab Motherwell and Wishaw 587 Lab Uddingston Bellshill 714 Lab Glasgow Maryhill and S’burn 1,292 Lab Glasgow Pollock 623 Lab [...] more »
The Psephology of Scotland (2) – Scottish Labour
Tweet Start with a few facts: 2007 Constituency results for Scottish Labour – 648,374, 32.2% 2011 Constituency results for Scottish Labour – 630,461, 31.7% So down 18,000 votes and 0.5%. 2007 Regional List results for Scottish Labour – 595,415, 29.2% 2011 Regional List results for Scottish Labour – 523,559, 26.3% So down 72,000 and 2.9% [...] more »
To protect the Union, recast the Scotland Bill
Tweet A strategy for recovery for Unionism in Scotland comes from the unexpected source of John McTernan, a New Labour strategist much respected in Cameron’s Downing St. He’s here talking about a revival for the Scottish Conservatives whose low vote is actually underrepresented in both Parliaments. But he could just as easily be talking about [...] more »
The psephology of Scotland (1) – Lib Dems
Tweet Just some facts: It is difficult to overstate the scale of the destruction of the Lib Dems in Scotland – which is of huge historical significance. 2 illustrations will suffice. 1) Glasgow is a region with 9 constituencies. The Lib Dems polled a total of 5,312 votes, 2.5%. That was less than Respect and [...] more »
The case for the Union needs to be made
Tweet Two veteran commentators give instant pronouncements on the implications for the Union of the SNP landslide. Leaving aside the Northern Ireland overtones just for now (please!) Charles Moore in the Daily Telegraph makes the obvious point that the essential case for the Union has yet to be put. The trouble is, the English [...] more »
Managerialist Labour given a lesson in modern politics at Scottish polls..
Tweet Well, Scotland, whether it knows it yet or not, has just rocked the UK’s world. I would like to see Ian’s hypotheses that campaign’s don’t affect the outcomes of elections tested against Labour’s collapse in some of its heartland constituencies in Scotland yesterday in the face of a superb SNP campaign. In fact, I [...] more »
Last astonishing Scottish Poll
Tweet STV report an incredible set of figures in the last pre-election poll: “The poll, conducted for STV News and likely to be the last before polling day, shows the Nationalists gaining enough of the vote for 61 seats, 14 more than they had in the last parliamentary session. Meanwhile, the poll indicates a major [...] more »
Some surprising SNP support emerges…
Tweet The Scotland on Sunday comes out of the closet with an editorial of some ferocity: “…The fact is that Labour’s campaign has been appallingly negative and treated the electorate with contempt. Both main thrusts of its campaign have been deceptive and can only have been constructed against a view that we, the electorate, are [...] more »
The true nature of the political upheaval in Scotland
Tweet Tom Gallagher’s recent column (and follow up comments) casts a non-starry-eyed gaze over the seemingly natural procession of the SNP at the moment towards a second term in the Scottish Parliament. For Tom, there are some crucial factors. Salmond’s undoubted sure-touch as a populist Scottish politician; a commentariat and editorial cadre, strategically placed in the Scottish [...] more »
Milliband, Balls and Gray (and Ulster mercenaries..).. try some Rough Wooing…
Tweet As the latest opinion polls, quoted on Political Betting, begin to indicate a shift directly to the SNP from Scottish Labour, Labour react. That’s from Hamish MacDonell in the Spectator: Can Ed Miliband and Ed Balls save Labour in Scotland? The two Labour heavyweights have decided to move in to rescue their party’s disastrous [...] more »
Scotland getting interesting…
Tweet Political Betting reports on the latest Scottish opinion poll. And those committed Scottish Nationalists report it in the Scottish Sun….(Me I’d have told Murdoch to shove it…) So ten points up – if true this could mean: a) An SNP majority (the voting system was precisely defined to prevent this…) b) An independence referendum. [...] more »
Good Times for Alex and his Nationalist Army
Tweet Support for an independent Scotland is at its lowest for years. But Alex Salmond is riding high in the polls. The Scottish National Party which he leads stands an excellent chance of winning more seats than its lacklustre Labour opponent in the fourth election for the Scottish parliament being held on 5 May. This [...] more »
SNP steps out into the post Obama election era…
Tweet Here’s a fascinating story from the Scottish political space, not least wearing my own Slugger Consults hat. There is, and I think rightly so, some scepticism about whether all this activity and emphasis on social networking means anything in real political terms. As you know we’re running a series of Twitter election meet ups [...] more »
On Ireland and the case for Scottish independence
Tweet One wonders whether in the future small and medium-sized countries will begin to worry when commentators start using their economies as case-studies: whom the gods of economic history wish to destroy, first they make them examples from which wider lessons should be drawn? Everyone remembers that this was the case with Ireland and its [...] more »
Scottish Parliament Faces Budget Crisis
Tweet Budgets, budgets, budgets. While EU monetary commissioner Oli Rehn has been in Dublin trying to force through the Republic’s budget, across the water in Scotland a budgetary crisis looms large. The Scots might not be on the verge of calling in the IMF but at present Holyrood is on course for a serious shortfall [...] more »
From the Scotland Bill to Scottish independence…
Tweet The inclusion of the Scotland Act amongst the UK Government’s 22 Bills has pushed Scotland’s place in Britain back up the discussion list in many quarters. Personally I am surprised that the Conservatives have moved so quickly on the issue when it potentially poses such a risk for the continuation of the union, particularly [...] more »
Sunday polls: Conservatives nose ahead in a volatile race
Tweet Still not brilliant news in Sunday’s polls for the Tories, but I would rather be in their shoes than Labour’s today: no momentum and the campaign (substance vs, erm, ‘the damned Tories’) is slowly disintegrating. Things are still holding up pretty well for the Lib Dems. And after last week’s wobble (as Clegg came into [...] more »
Any CU wins will be despite the Tory deal…
Tweet Much ink has been spilt over the current misfortunes of David Cameron and the conservatives… Over on CIF, I argue their apparent demise (still two weeks to go yet!) is bad for Scottish nationalist hopes to take seats from Labour and any gains in Northern Ireland for the CUs (or UCU-NF’s, or UCs, or [...] more »
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Books
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Stay out of Libya: counterinsurgency doesn’t work
Tweet A moment of some significance in journalism perhaps, as the New York Times reviews the current talked about book, The Wrong War: Grit, Strategy, and the Way Out of Afghanistan by Bing West. The author is no bleeding heart but a former assistant Defense Secretary from the Reagan era who stomped his way round the [...] read our review »
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Belfast 400: People, Place and History (Sean Connolly, editor)
Tweet Ten days ago I finished reading Belfast 400: People, Place and History, a book published to mark the four hundredth anniversary of the city’s charter. In the light of last week’s reawakened community tensions and violence, it is interesting to look back at the roots of the city and its journey into the twenty [...] read our review »
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What is history for again?
Tweet A growing row over Michael Gove’s proposed new history curriculum for England may well spark a bout of Brit bashing in Slugger and other places. Anything that seems to encourage the “great man theory ”( History p 165 et seq)” of British history will be dumped on, but not only on this side of the [...] read our review »
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