How has opinion in Northern Ireland on the border question changed since the Brexit referendum?

It is perhaps ironic that, given politics in Northern Ireland has revolved around the border question since its inception, there is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding whether the people of Northern Ireland want to stay in the United Kingdom or become part of a united Ireland. There have been a number of opinion polls and surveys on the question since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, which have yielded significantly varying results on the question of support for Irish …

Read more…

Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey suggests slight increase in support for Irish unity and cross-community support for abortion reform

The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey for 2016, which was carried out last year and the results of which were released today, suggests that support for a united Ireland has increased in the wake of last year’s referendum when the UK voted to leave the European Union. Support for Irish unity amongst the Catholic community was up three percentage points, from 31% to 34%. Whilst this is the highest it has been in this decade so far, it is …

Read more…

Constitutional uncoupling, or the decline in support for Nationalist parties amongst the Catholic community of Northern Ireland

Unmistakeably one of the main stories of the 2016 Assembly election has been the sharp drop in the share of the vote of Sinn Féin and the SDLP, which has fallen 3.6% since the 2015 General Election and 5.6% from the 41.2% combined share that they polled at the previous Assembly election in 2011. This is certainly a very disappointing result for those in favour of Irish unity, especially amongst those who had hoped that the centenary of the Easter …

Read more…

Why Northern Ireland is becoming less ‘Northern Irish’, and more divided.

I want to illustrate a few concerning features of the Northern Ireland Life and Times survey (NILTS) data that haven’t yet received media attention, particularly in regard to cross-community contact and the Northern Irish identity. There are some trends that exist which suggest Northern Ireland is becoming a more divided place, especially for young people economically affected by the recession. Northern Irish Identity Since the release of the 2011 census when it was shown that 45% of Catholics and 48% …

Read more…

Party support and #NILT’s soft politicised underbelly

And the recurring problem with the NILT Survey (and it hasn’t gone away you know)? Political party support (%) DUP/Democratic Unionist Party 17 Sinn Fein 12 Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 10 Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 13 Alliance Party 8 Other Party (please specify) 2 None of these 24 Other answer (please specify) 5 Don’t know 8 For comparison, including only those with a political preference from the above, this would translate as follows (NILT figures in bold: electoral figures …

Read more…

NILT for 2012 suggests passion for constitutional issues is dropping fast…

Headline findings from the 2012  Life and Times survey includes some mixed news, and some fascinating snippets. Ive added emphasis to highlight some of the more intriguing findings: percentage believing that a United Ireland is very unlikely has now risen to 41%. proportion of Catholics expecting Irish unity remains less than among Protestants. a marked rise in the percentage of people describing their national identity as Irish, up from 26% in 2010 to 32% in 2012 a fall in the …

Read more…

NILT: Does it tell us anything beyond it may still have sampling issues?

20% of nationalists aren’t nationalist 29% of people that support SF/SDLP don’t think of themselves as nationalist 42% of SF/SDLP supporters don’t support Irish unity 55% more people support the SDLP than SF 41% of Catholics support the SDLP. Only 27% support SF. Anyone want to add their spots on survey details that, yet again, seem to clearly conflict with reality? And this bullshit survey is yet again being treated as a serious barometer of political attitudes in the north? …

Read more…