The story of Irish political fortunes over the last two years…

Gerard has put up his company’s latest study of consumer confidence over the last two years… This chart in particular stands out: 1 for the massive dip when the bailout was finally forced upon the late Brian Lenihan; and two, the almost immediate upturn which probably reflects one, the recovery from shock and the anticipation of a coming general election… It also suggests, if you buy the extrapolation across from consumer to political confidence, that the current government is walking …

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Prediction competition – results #ge11: And the winner is….

… one of only four of the 79 entries that ticked the no-publicity box. A free £150 bet with Betfair is in the post to the lucky insightful winner. Update: It seems that the winner – The Dissenter – ticked the ‘no publicity’ box by mistake. The actual result was: FG – 76. Lab – 37. FF – 20. SF 14. Others (not including speaker) 18. Anon (for it is s/he) made the following prediction on the 7th Feb: Seats: …

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19 Independents meet to form a technical group.

Fascinating little scenario developing here. You can only have one technical group (which affords speaking rights) amongst otherwise unaffliated groups and individual TDs in Dail Eireann. So all 19 Independents are meeting this evening to see if they can agree to form one. It’s thought that as many as 16 or as few as 11 could form a single group. If it was the upper figure it would almost certainly incorporate individuals with some pretty sharply divergent beliefs, that would have …

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There’s some people on the pitch: #GE11 stoppage time.

With all seats filled, and, a recount in Galway West apart, the composition of the 31st Dáil is clear. Sort of. Basically, Fine Gael’s 76 and Labour’s 37 TDs make up a comfortable 113 governing coalition. Except that in the last 24 hours I’ve heard both sides moan about the difficulty of spreading the limited number of ministrys among their own TDs (geographically) nevermind between the two governing partners. With fifteen or so ministers plus up to ten junior ministers, whips and …

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#GE11 Profile: Sinn Fein achieves national currency…

It’s tempting to overwrite any profile of Sinn Fein’s spectacular move out of its stronghold areas. There were obvious highlights: Gerry Adams topped the poll in good style in Louth and likewise his two Donegal colleagues, Pearse Doherty and Padraig MacLochlainn. The party also performed particularly well in Dublin where there had been concerns about the defections of a number of councillors over the last few years. It’s out in the rest of the country where I think the party …

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#GE11 Profile: Labour now the second largest party in the State…

And by some way. Dublin North West has two Labour seats and one that’s newly Sinn Fein. No Fianna Fail TD for the first time since the 1920s. There are a further two in Dublin South Central. And Ann Phelan took the first seat in Carlow Kilkenny (you can pick up my RTE Audio Boo interview with her here). And in Galway East, they’ll pick up a seat for the first time ever. The Gilmore for Taoiseach posters aside, this …

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#GE11 Profile: Fianna Fail no longer an undisputed “Republican Party”…

From a long term point of view, the big story of the election was what’s happened to Fianna Fail. Not so much a notice to quit as almost a notice to quit trading. Bertie’s seat bonus has gone (and may never return), and the core kicked them pretty hard and coming on the heel of too Local Government wipeouts, they have a nasty generational gap to bridge. Back in January, Liam Clarke rather ominously suggested that Fianna Fail may be …

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Election day open thread #ge11

The big day is here. Mick’s in Cavan at the moment (more on that soon) and will be in Roscommon & Kilkenny later – go along if you can. Update: We’ve added a ‘CoverItLive’ window in this post (thanks Mark McG!) – it’ll probably be fairly quiet until tomorrow but worth checking back to see if you’re not a regular Twitter user: Election 2011 John has just posted on his expectations and is asking you to put your cards on the table …

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Ok, put your cards on the table

A few weeks ago Paul opened up a blog on election predictions. Now, a bit older and wiser, its time for everyone to put their cards on the table and, rather than risk money, to stake their invaluable credibility as pundits on predicting the outcomes of the election. I’m going to qualify mine by pointing to a few things: The last polls tend to over emphasise support for the lead party, in this case Fine Gael, but their lead is over the second …

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Most likely big fallers: TDs on Saturday, MLAs in May?

The late Alex Higgins played a famous frame that highlighted his particular genius. In it, he played shots that nudged other balls into positions whose advantages only became clear much later in the frame (one on the green stood out). In 1963, Seán Lemass’s Fianna Fáil government repealed aspects of the 1923 Electoral Abuses Act with the effect that removing sitting TDs from office has largely only been possible in a general election (this also enabled the fabrications of the Charles Haughey-directed anti-Labour campaign in 1969). Although the Fianna …

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After Fianna Fail, the new government must stretch time horizons…

A few years back, my old mucker from River Path days, David Steven warned an audience in Tokyo of the dangers of the unrest that would come in the wake of the world credit crisis: …be ready for the backlash – people are angry and rightfully so, but that may well lead us down some populist blind alleys. You can’t help thinking that the Arab world may be in part or in whole wandering down some particularly nasty populist blind …

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Live Blog: The Three Leader’s Debate…

Three Leaders Debate It’s on RTE’s Prime Time at 9.40. Let’s see what there is to play for… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Carlow Kilkenny #ge11 RTE roadtrip meetup on Friday afternoon

Apologies for the multiple posts on this one. We’ve finalised the venue now for the final leg of our roadtrip on Friday. If you’re anywhere near the Lyrath Estate Hotel in Kilkenny, myself and Peter will be there to hear what you’ve got to say. It’s another interesting one because Fianna Fail’s dissenter in chief, former Minister of State John McGuinness is standing. Not cut and dried that he will win. In Mary White it has one of the few …

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We’re in Cavan on Friday morning to start the RTE/Slugger roadtrip #ge11 meetup

Myself and Peter Geoghegan are doing three RTE Election Meet Ups – polling day events to sample in depth the opinion of local people and to share them online via Twitter and Facebook. The first one of the day will be in Cavan – details here. We’ve chosen it because it could be an interesting one . It could be a weather-vane showing the extent of any Fine Gael surge. If they gain three seats here they may be on …

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Meet us in Roscommon for #GE11…

This just a quick post in passing (as I am about to run out of the door), but if you are around in Roscommon on Friday lunchtime, you can book your free space at the Hannon’s Hotel (the least we can offer is a nice cup of coffee and a sit down)… To see who else may be going, to flag it up, see also the Facebook page… Event Registration Online for RTE Slugger #GE11 Roscommon South Leitrim Meetup powered …

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In Ireland, the parish and the county matter more than ideology

Probably the sharpest comment on the latest polls comes from former Justice Minster Michael McDowell, when he notes that: The latest poll does not indicate any last-minute surge in support one way or the other. But of course, we haven’t reached the “last minute” yet. Labour appears to have come off worst in its scrap with Fine Gael and the “Gilmore for Taoiseach” posters are going to become collectors’ items — just as the famous 1969 Labour poster “The Seventies …

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two pennies for your thoughts on the Irish election

Simon McGarr has been publishing short, 1-3 minute long, podcasts each day during the Irish election campaign, summing up his thoughts on the issues and debates (of which he’s not that impressed). For anyone like me with an all too sparse working knowledge of what’s going on, it’s a good listen. And it has been the merit of being short and personal. You can find the podcasts on tuppenceworth.ie/blog, Audioboo or iTunes. Do let me know in the comments below …

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GE11 preview from the south-east: Waterford

After Wicklow, Wexford and Carlow-Kilkenny, the last ‘south-east’ constituency that I’m going to preview is Waterford. Unlike the others it is a mere four-seater, although it has been an effective three seater since Martin Cullen’s resignation last year. Fifteen candidates are standing in the election in Waterford this time out. Since the quota in a four seater is just over 20% making two seats a difficult ask. In 2007 FF took two seats from three candidates getting 46%, FG took one …

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GE11 preview from the south-east: Carlow-Kilkenny

There are a total of 19 candidates standing in the Carlow-Kilkenny constituency. Last time out 3 FF TDs were returned, one of whom (MJ Nolan) is the only one of the five sitting TDs not to stand again. In 2007, a certain amount of conservatism was evident as FF received nearly 48% of the first preference vote, while FG got nearly 29% (both above average). That was slightly balanced by the election of Mary White, the only Green TD returned by a largely rural …

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